Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Pretty sure hookers and blow can’t be considered investments.

Unless you’re a coke-dealing pimp I guess.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:49 pm Pretty sure hookers and blow can’t be considered investments.

Unless you’re a coke-dealing pimp I guess.
They're investments. In good times!
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

pr0ner wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:42 am
Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:49 pm Pretty sure hookers and blow can’t be considered investments.

Unless you’re a coke-dealing pimp I guess.
They're investments. In good times!
Touché
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

coopasonic wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:35 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:05 pm If you have a giant tax bill from selling stocks that you're wanting to sell, that just means you have an even more giant-er pile of profits.
Profits that hopefully you didn't invest in hookers and blow because you considered the tax implications of your decisions.
The multiplier effect - you're a job creator!
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

Pyperkub wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:54 pm
coopasonic wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:35 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:05 pm If you have a giant tax bill from selling stocks that you're wanting to sell, that just means you have an even more giant-er pile of profits.
Profits that hopefully you didn't invest in hookers and blow because you considered the tax implications of your decisions.
The multiplier effect - you're a job creator!
Such economy. Many investments.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

The visible hand.

Finally, what happens if we are right and Powell does assure the market that SLR will be extended? Well, since all of the pent up uncertainty about whether or not bank balance sheets will be usable after March 31 will disappear, what will happen is a monster short squeeze as all those shorts that pushed the 10Y to -4% in repo panic and scramble to cover, sparking a massive surge higher in prices (and plunge in yields), and since there will be immediate follow through to stocks where concerns about rising yields just sent risk assets plunging, we expect a monster move higher in stocks tomorrow.

In fact, judging by the freefall in futures, we wouldn't be surprise if the Fed announces that the SLR exemption will be granted at the usual pre-market time of 830am.

In any case, stay tuned because there will be fireworks - most likely to the upside - but if for some reason Powell refuses to unclog the repo market, there will be blood.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

FWIW that overnight repo issue didn't turn into anything...yet. It also looks like Powell's Fed is going to be accommodative and just things ride for the moment. It looks like they think they are well-positioned to see the economic restart which already is seeing supply side shocks. Especially in raw materials and shipping that'll look like inflation. And then actual natural inflation from a potential economic growth rebound that they'll have to figure out how to separate from that baseline.

I happened to wrangle access to TIKR - which is awesome - and spent a few hours this weekend looking at how the market unwound last week and it wasn't broad based. There was a clear break between growth stocks and everything else. I don't have inflows/outflows all nicely mapped out but I did get the sense that there were big outflows from the 'bubble' stocks to value and even down through midcap/small caps. That's interesting. TSLA looks like it reverting to mean which would be what $300 or 400?.

I have a theory about a couple of stocks - still working them out. I might get off the sidelines and actually pump a little stashed play money back in since I half expect the bond situation to shake loose into some profitable volatility situations.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Rotation from large-cap growth to value and cyclicals. And lots of movement into RUTs.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

FWIW this supply shock thing is real. I was reading the ISM reports where they were relating the supply issues this weekend. Then today I just helped my wife out with a statistical analysis due to price overruns in her manufacturing unit. They use about 8 primary ingredients in their cosmetic formulations and 4 core ones have skyrocketed over the last month to the point that twice today we've conducted rounds of analyses to see where they can shave 10% out of products. There are some they can get in boat loads but anything that is imported from China or petroleum based is completely out of stock or insanely priced everywhere.
Last edited by malchior on Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:13 am Aaaand, SWBI just announced another doubling in sales for last Q.
Smith & Wesson Brands (NASDAQ:SWBI) reported sales doubled during its fiscal third quarter, the third consecutive month where sales were up by more than 100%.
LordMortis wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:06 am At the risk of being premature, thank you LB. I bought 100 shares of AOUT at $13.54 after learning a bit about them and watching them and then immediately sold a November 20 $15 call for $.94 bringing the price down to $12.50 plus taxes on the call. Things are looking very strong to sell right now and if they don't, I'm not likely to be heartbroken. Nothing else you talked about were things I felt I understood enough or could warrant but I'm always happen to listen.


At present rate, I'm going to be forced to go of let my AOUT that I bought after researching your mentions here. I have $17.50 a April Call I sold for $2.46 (losing about $74 from buying back the $15 in November so I could ask for for $246 at $17.50 in April) and the call price structure from here to October doesn't look like it is going to be reasonable for me buy back and push out much less up and out, but when all is said and done I'll be happy. Assuming everything doesn't shit the bed by April 16th, It's a good 6/7 month's money and I'm out at right about the time I want to start trimming some of these positions.

(Now watch them sky rocket on Earning in March and see me cry because somehow a gamble that paid nearly +50% in half a year made someone else +100%)
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

GME back up to $236. What a crazy, crazy thing.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

TSLA jumped 19%. It had been reverting to mean but it is still broken. A totally legitimate P/E of ~160.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Munger warning about bubble popping FWIW.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:00 pm Munger warning about bubble popping FWIW.
He also said he doesn't like portfolio diversification. That's odd...
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Doppleganger
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Post by noxiousdog »

malchior wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:00 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:00 pm Munger warning about bubble popping FWIW.
He also said he doesn't like portfolio diversification. That's odd...
Sort of.

For the non-highly skilled investor, he thinks you should be in the s&p 500 and that's it.

For highly-skilled investors, you should be concentrating in hugely undervalued businesses. Find the one no-brainer investment and go there. Your returns will beat the market handily. He and Buffett regularly acknowledge they are no longer able to do this at scale which is why they don't follow their own advice, but that's what got them here.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:26 am
malchior wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:00 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:00 pm Munger warning about bubble popping FWIW.
He also said he doesn't like portfolio diversification. That's odd...
Sort of.

For the non-highly skilled investor, he thinks you should be in the s&p 500 and that's it.

For highly-skilled investors, you should be concentrating in hugely undervalued businesses. Find the one no-brainer investment and go there. Your returns will beat the market handily. He and Buffett regularly acknowledge they are no longer able to do this at scale which is why they don't follow their own advice, but that's what got them here.
It's also why I hate hearing things like "so and so beat Buffet's Berkshire 6 years running...." The scale at which they operate is a different ball game. Not that Berkshire is the be-all, end-all but try investing 20B In a company and being agile enough to take profits without cratering it.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

F position is finally getting way too big. Trimming some here but staying in.


Also, took some profits in SEED, reduced position by 40%. Added DSKE.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

BTC $61.8k. Sheesh.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Hamlet3145 »

So, just to follow up on my GME related post here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=50752&p=2798974#p2798974

My dad has now made use of some of his windfall. 2021 Subaru XT Turbo, Onyx edition. This is his first truly new car since, I kid you not, a 1984 Pontiac Fierro. :lol:

Enlarge Image

Once things have gotten somewhat back to normal post pandemic, the plan is for my parents to take this on a leisurely tour of the national parks. Really happy for them. Thanks, you crazy "stonk" buying Reddit lunatics!
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

Fantastic.

Meanwhile, I've rolled some sold calls forward to take advantage of the continued TSLA fun times.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Hamlet3145 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:18 pm So, just to follow up on my GME related post here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=50752&p=2798974#p2798974

My dad has now made use of some of his windfall. 2021 Subaru XT Turbo, Onyx edition. This is his first truly new car since, I kid you not, a 1984 Pontiac Fierro. :lol:

Enlarge Image

Once things have gotten somewhat back to normal post pandemic, the plan is for my parents to take this on a leisurely tour of the national parks. Really happy for them. Thanks, you crazy "stonk" buying Reddit lunatics!
Best GME story I've heard so far. Congrats to them!




(Save some for taxes!)
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Z-Corn »

Hamlet3145 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:18 pm So, just to follow up on my GME related post here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=50752&p=2798974#p2798974

My dad has now made use of some of his windfall. 2021 Subaru XT Turbo, Onyx edition. This is his first truly new car since, I kid you not, a 1984 Pontiac Fierro. :lol:

Enlarge Image

Once things have gotten somewhat back to normal post pandemic, the plan is for my parents to take this on a leisurely tour of the national parks. Really happy for them. Thanks, you crazy "stonk" buying Reddit lunatics!
Noice!

We just bought a used Subaru and I was drooling all over one of these on the showroom floor.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by coopasonic »

I'd rather have the Fiero. You can squeeze a small block in there you know!
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Hamlet3145 »

coopasonic wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:51 pm I'd rather have the Fiero. You can squeeze a small block in there you know!
Haha! We used to joke about doing that.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:33 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:13 am Aaaand, SWBI just announced another doubling in sales for last Q.
Smith & Wesson Brands (NASDAQ:SWBI) reported sales doubled during its fiscal third quarter, the third consecutive month where sales were up by more than 100%.
LordMortis wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:06 am At the risk of being premature, thank you LB. I bought 100 shares of AOUT at $13.54 after learning a bit about them and watching them and then immediately sold a November 20 $15 call for $.94 bringing the price down to $12.50 plus taxes on the call. Things are looking very strong to sell right now and if they don't, I'm not likely to be heartbroken. Nothing else you talked about were things I felt I understood enough or could warrant but I'm always happen to listen.


At present rate, I'm going to be forced to go of let my AOUT that I bought after researching your mentions here. I have $17.50 a April Call I sold for $2.46 (losing about $74 from buying back the $15 in November so I could ask for for $246 at $17.50 in April) and the call price structure from here to October doesn't look like it is going to be reasonable for me buy back and push out much less up and out, but when all is said and done I'll be happy. Assuming everything doesn't shit the bed by April 16th, It's a good 6/7 month's money and I'm out at right about the time I want to start trimming some of these positions.

(Now watch them sky rocket on Earning in March and see me cry because somehow a gamble that paid nearly +50% in half a year made someone else +100%)
Great AOUT Q3 upside surprise. Looks like an open in the $26 range.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Saw that. I will not cry. I'm making money. And will continue telling myself that.

I eagerly await your next wisdom for something I believe I comprehend after my own diligence and can afford, which sadly for me, isn't that often.
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Post by xwraith »

So apparently a hedge fund just liquidated -- Archegos -- they got margin called and had to liquidate.

Thoughts?

Could be nothing -- somebody over-leveraged and well it sucks to be them and their bankers. Heard some guy on the radio concerning systemic risk and speculating that if so, it could be worse than 2008.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

I woke up this on CNBC this morning. They were reporting the firm took the same loans out through multiple sources through leveraging "swapping" over and over against the same assets. Shouldn't banks work with places like D&B to keep that from ever happening? I know my company have to register an FIN and DUNS every time we establish a line of credit and all those lines of credit stack. They also said it was an isolated thing but Nomura and Credit Suisse ([sarcasm]big surprise there[/end sarcasm]) were going to take huge hits over this.

I guess we'll see what happens. It sure didn't seem like the markets were hit. It's also crazy to me that they go down when the market is this nuts unless they major short sellers.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

This was making the rounds Friday. They were over leveraged in a lot of the crappy Chinese companies that got hammered last week.


Here a take from a friend of mine:
Credit Suisse trying to orchestrate a coordinated liquidation among all the prime brokers....I bet Goldman had somebody on that call, dragging it out....while the GS desk was already dumping everything in Archegos' book.
Does have Goldman's hands all over it.





Archegos Implosion is a Sign of Massive Stock Market Leverage that Stays Hidden until it Blows Up and Hits the Banks

Banks, as prime brokers and counterparties to the hedge fund, are eating multi-billion-dollar losses as they try to get out of these secretive stock derivative positions.
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Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

I wonder if this is the commercial credit default swaps implosion I was worried about too early. :D

I’ve avoided all financials for a year now (?), as a result of one doom and gloom article I read which resounded with me.

It’s been so long ago I just assumed I overreacted, and/or article was wrong. Maybe it was just early.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Are you trying to tell me unregulated banking could be behind market "choppiness" and the derivative market going through the roof and is subject to collapsing unsustainable growth rates in the form on an "implosion" of value? Nooo. That doesn't sound right.

I caught CNBC briefly this morning talking about Hwang's charity write off of 500 Million that has no reported controls, a double dip in tax free spending and a tax write off against gains.
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Post by LawBeefaroni »

JPM analyst surprised by possible losses...
Because as Abouhossein writes, "in normal circumstances... we would have suspected industry losses of $2.5-5bn. We now suspect losses in the range of $5-10bn." In other words, JPM has doubled its max loss estimate to as much as $10BN, a number which could yet rise.

To get there, JPM estimates that Archegos was highly leveraged at 5-8x (i.e. $50-80bn of exposure for $10bn of equity) - using Total Return Swaps and Certificates for Difference to lever up so massively as we discussed yesterday - and it was this use of equity-swaps tha "tincreased the inability of PBs to see the concentration risk in holdings within the hedge fund in question."

Even so, Kian admits that he remains "puzzled why Credit Suisse (CSG) and Nomura have been unable to unwind all their positions at this point – as we would expect to get an announcement as soon as this is the case, on the scale of potential losses (especially in the case of CSG which hasn’t provided numerical impact)" although we have gotten some headlines suggesting the total loss could be as big as $7 billion.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:24 pm
Even so, Kian admits that he remains "puzzled why Credit Suisse (CSG) and Nomura have been unable to unwind all their positions at this point – as we would expect to get an announcement as soon as this is the case, on the scale of potential losses (especially in the case of CSG which hasn’t provided numerical impact)" although we have gotten some headlines suggesting the total loss could be as big as $7 billion.
I imagine CSG and Nomura have sturdy enough capitalization (or less oversight) and might be taking on some risk to wait for a better price point in their favor to exit the positions.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

It's always fun when a stock I buy as a dividend play (MO) decides to go on a growth run.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

malchior wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:28 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:24 pm
Even so, Kian admits that he remains "puzzled why Credit Suisse (CSG) and Nomura have been unable to unwind all their positions at this point – as we would expect to get an announcement as soon as this is the case, on the scale of potential losses (especially in the case of CSG which hasn’t provided numerical impact)" although we have gotten some headlines suggesting the total loss could be as big as $7 billion.
I imagine CSG and Nomura have sturdy enough capitalization (or less oversight) and might be taking on some risk to wait for a better price point in their favor to exit the positions.
Credit Suisse pounded. They fucked up, plain and simple.
Credit Suisse took drastic action on Tuesday, replacing two key executives and cutting bonuses amid the fallout from two major business relationships.

Its chief risk officer, Lara Warner and its investment banking chief, Brian Chin will both leave the bank in April.

...

Credit Suisse said it expects to make a $960m (£690m) loss for the first quarter. It had planned to ask shareholders to vote on both short and long-term bonus awards for executives, but it has now cancelled these proposals and it is cutting its proposed dividend payout to shareholders.

It also warned of a $4.7bn loss from Archegos' implosion alone.

It said it had yet to calculate the cost of its involvement with Greensill Capital.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

They fucked up yet again, plain and simple.
CS is a group I don't get anyone getting in bed with unless it's because they can take advantage. They make bad decisions and have bad mechanisms at every turn.

They were a cheap dividend stock during 2020 pull back. I was doing my diligence on them and then chose to back off and do a smaller cap HBAN in a different space instead. Their DGAZF nightmares sealed the... lack of... a deal for me.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Credit Suisse. At least we're not Wells Fargo.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:28 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:28 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:24 pm
Even so, Kian admits that he remains "puzzled why Credit Suisse (CSG) and Nomura have been unable to unwind all their positions at this point – as we would expect to get an announcement as soon as this is the case, on the scale of potential losses (especially in the case of CSG which hasn’t provided numerical impact)" although we have gotten some headlines suggesting the total loss could be as big as $7 billion.
I imagine CSG and Nomura have sturdy enough capitalization (or less oversight) and might be taking on some risk to wait for a better price point in their favor to exit the positions.
Credit Suisse pounded. They fucked up, plain and simple.
Sounds like it. That it went that high up indicates lack of supervision or maybe even individual approval of the deals.

Edit: The CEO of CSG partially pinned blame on lack of face-to-face meetings during the pandemic. Come on, man!
In the NZZ interview, Gottstein blamed Credit Suisse's failings to adequately manage risks at least partly on the lack of face-to-face meetings with clients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"It's a challenge to manage a global bank during a pandemic over Zoom," Gottstein told the newspaper. "I'm convinced that in the era of COVID-19 the scrutiny of risk business, whether for banks or insurers, has grown more difficult."
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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No honor among thieves.


The night before the Archegos Capital story burst into public view late last month, the fund's biggest prime broker quietly unloaded some of its risky positions to hedge funds, people with knowledge of the trades told CNBC.

Morgan Stanley sold about $5 billion in shares from Archegos' doomed bets on U.S. media and Chinese tech names to a small group of hedge funds late Thursday, March 25, according to the people, who requested anonymity to speak frankly about the transaction.


...


But the investment bank had information it didn’t share with the stock buyers: The basket of shares it was selling, comprised of eight or so names including Baidu and Tencent Music, was merely the opening salvo of an unprecedented wave of tens of billions of dollars in sales by Morgan Stanley and other investment banks starting the very next day.

Some of the clients felt betrayed by Morgan Stanley because they didn’t receive that crucial context, according to one of the people familiar with the trades. The hedge funds learned later in press reports that Hwang and his prime brokers convened Thursday night to attempt an orderly unwind of his positions, a difficult task considering the risk that word would get out.

That means that at least some bankers at Morgan Stanley knew the extent of the selling that was likely and that Hwang’s firm was unlikely to be saved, these people contend. That knowledge helped Morgan Stanley and rival Goldman Sachs avoid losses because the firms quickly disposed of shares tied to Archegos. Morgan Stanley and Goldman declined to comment for this article.
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