Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

pr0ner wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:04 am Meme stonks are going crazy again. AMC is up another 28% today, and is up over 130% the last week. Sundial is up 36% today; Blackberry 45%; Gamestop another 10%.
AMC is ridiculous. They diluted by selling 8.5M shares to Mudrick Capital, who turned around and dumped it at market. The memers just kept buying the watered-down shit and AMC said today they would reward shareholders with free popping corn at theaters.

If you bought AMC puts yesterday, you'd be screwed by today's 30% pop, right? Not necessarily. Several strikes are actually up due to the increased implied volatility. It's insanity.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:45 am
pr0ner wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:04 am Meme stonks are going crazy again. AMC is up another 28% today, and is up over 130% the last week. Sundial is up 36% today; Blackberry 45%; Gamestop another 10%.
AMC is ridiculous. They diluted by selling 8.5M shares to Mudrick Capital, who turned around and dumped it at market. The memers just kept buying the watered-down shit and AMC said today they would reward shareholders with free popping corn at theaters.

If you bought AMC puts yesterday, you'd be screwed by today's 30% pop, right? Not necessarily. Several strikes are actually up due to the increased implied volatility. It's insanity.
A 30% pop? Try 90% now. And its current price is down $12 from its intraday high.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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pr0ner wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:08 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:45 am
pr0ner wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:04 am Meme stonks are going crazy again. AMC is up another 28% today, and is up over 130% the last week. Sundial is up 36% today; Blackberry 45%; Gamestop another 10%.
AMC is ridiculous. They diluted by selling 8.5M shares to Mudrick Capital, who turned around and dumped it at market. The memers just kept buying the watered-down shit and AMC said today they would reward shareholders with free popping corn at theaters.

If you bought AMC puts yesterday, you'd be screwed by today's 30% pop, right? Not necessarily. Several strikes are actually up due to the increased implied volatility. It's insanity.
A 30% pop? Try 90% now.
It's doubled now and puts are still positive.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:13 pm
pr0ner wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:08 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:45 am
pr0ner wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:04 am Meme stonks are going crazy again. AMC is up another 28% today, and is up over 130% the last week. Sundial is up 36% today; Blackberry 45%; Gamestop another 10%.
AMC is ridiculous. They diluted by selling 8.5M shares to Mudrick Capital, who turned around and dumped it at market. The memers just kept buying the watered-down shit and AMC said today they would reward shareholders with free popping corn at theaters.

If you bought AMC puts yesterday, you'd be screwed by today's 30% pop, right? Not necessarily. Several strikes are actually up due to the increased implied volatility. It's insanity.
A 30% pop? Try 90% now.
It's doubled now and puts are still positive.
Insanity.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Guess I should have held rather than sold my for-the-lulz position at the end of Jan ($14).
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:52 pm Guess I should have held rather than sold my for-the-lulz position at the end of Jan ($14).
If you did, you probably would have sold last week at $30.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:54 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:52 pm Guess I should have held rather than sold my for-the-lulz position at the end of Jan ($14).
If you did, you probably would have sold last week at $30.
Realistically more like $20. That position rightfully felt like a hot potato for the whole day or three that I held it.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:57 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:54 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:52 pm Guess I should have held rather than sold my for-the-lulz position at the end of Jan ($14).
If you did, you probably would have sold last week at $30.
Realistically more like $20. That position rightfully felt like a hot potato for the whole day or three that I held it.
Yeah, if I had the money for LULZ trading, it still wouldn't be LULZ. It would be a hot potato and I'd likely feel stress. I did some wild cheap speculation stocks shortly before all the meme stuff took off. They all made small strides before getting optioned away except GE which will get optioned away from me on the 18th of this month, making someone else a whole lot of money and NOK for which I continue a pull a few bucks in every few months and will likely bite me in the ass for for a few hundred dollars over the long haul. If I didn't have a covered call out on it right now, I'd likely sell it now, while it is benefiting from the meme stock currents.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:34 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:57 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:54 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:52 pm Guess I should have held rather than sold my for-the-lulz position at the end of Jan ($14).
If you did, you probably would have sold last week at $30.
Realistically more like $20. That position rightfully felt like a hot potato for the whole day or three that I held it.
Yeah, if I had the money for LULZ trading, it still wouldn't be LULZ. It would be a hot potato and I'd likely feel stress. I did some wild cheap speculation stocks shortly before all the meme stuff took off. They all made small strides before getting optioned away except GE which will get optioned away from me on the 18th of this month, making someone else a whole lot of money and NOK for which I continue a pull a few bucks in every few months and will likely bite me in the ass for for a few hundred dollars over the long haul. If I didn't have a covered call out on it right now, I'd likely sell it now, while it is benefiting from the meme stock currents.
Looking at my $20 covered calls in UMC. Stock is around $9.40. Exp is July. They are worthless but I'm still considering buying to close them at $0.05 just to clear the books. I think I sold at $0.65.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:02 pm Looking at my $20 covered calls in UMC. Stock is around $9.40. Exp is July. They are worthless but I'm still considering buying to close them at $0.05 just to clear the books. I think I sold at $0.65.
I might pay a nickel on those sorts of things, especially if I sold at $.65 just so I can find the next good covered call. I have a $44 covered call for GSK for AUG 20th, I put in to buy back for $.01 and a $37.50 covered call for BGS I put in to buy back $.05.

... Looking at it now, BGS went up $4 today, so that worthless GTC $.05 order I have placed is now looking at others with an ask of $1.25. This morning it was $.10. Well, that explains the jump in my overall position's value today on an otherwise relatively flat day.... I wonder what happened at noon today. I don't see any report talking about a 10%+ gain in 30 minutes reason. Looks like it peaked at $36. Crazy.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by msteelers »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Zaxxon wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:52 pm Guess I should have held rather than sold my for-the-lulz position at the end of Jan ($14).
If you did, you probably would have sold last week at $30.
This was me. I only had 10 shares that I bought at $14. I felt pretty smug selling them at $30. Oh well.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Post by LawBeefaroni »

I'll take 49% any year. Runaway inflation notwithstanding.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:59 pm I'll take 49% any year. Runaway inflation notwithstanding.
Uhhuh.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

AMC selling another 11M shares. It was up in premarket for a bit but hard to fight reality forever. Down from $77 to $57 right now, I'm sure it will be all over the place today.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:59 pm I'll take 49% any year. Runaway inflation notwithstanding.
We'll see. In any case, any claims of runaway inflation are way, way too premature. The data just isn't there yet and there are too many variables.
Most forecasters, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, expect the confusion to be short-lived. They see what amounts to a temporary mismatch between supply and demand, brought on by the relatively swift ebbing of the pandemic: Consumers, flush with stimulus cash and ready to re-engage with the world after a year of lockdowns, are eager to spend, but some businesses lack the staff and supplies they need to serve them. Once companies have had a chance to bring on workers and restock shelves — and people have begun to catch up on long-delayed hair appointments and family vacations — economic data should begin to return to normal.

But no one knows for sure. It is possible that the pandemic changed the economy in ways that aren’t yet fully understood, or that short-term disruptions could have long-lasting ripple effects. Some prominent economists are publicly fretting that today’s price increases could set the stage for faster inflation down the road. Historical analogues such as the postwar boom of the 1950s or the “stagflation” era of the 1970s provide at best limited insight into the present moment.

“We can’t dismiss anything at this point because there’s no precedent for any of this,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a forecasting firm.

...

“During normal times, you can just track a handful of indicators to know how the economy is doing,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University who specializes in economic forecasting. “When big shifts are going on, you’re tracking literally hundreds of indicators.”
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:48 am AMC selling another 11M shares. It was up in premarket for a bit but hard to fight reality forever. Down from $77 to $57 right now, I'm sure it will be all over the place today.
This is a smart move. If you have suckers willing to paper over your pandemic losses...let them. :)

One of the most surprising things about this was that GME sat on a high stock price for months before selling shares in. I can imagine that inability to capitalize was what led to the recent mgmt. shake up.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

malchior wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:08 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:59 pm I'll take 49% any year. Runaway inflation notwithstanding.
We'll see. In any case, any claims of runaway inflation are way, way too premature. The data just isn't there yet and there are too many variables.
Most forecasters, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, expect the confusion to be short-lived. They see what amounts to a temporary mismatch between supply and demand, brought on by the relatively swift ebbing of the pandemic: Consumers, flush with stimulus cash and ready to re-engage with the world after a year of lockdowns, are eager to spend, but some businesses lack the staff and supplies they need to serve them. Once companies have had a chance to bring on workers and restock shelves — and people have begun to catch up on long-delayed hair appointments and family vacations — economic data should begin to return to normal.

But no one knows for sure. It is possible that the pandemic changed the economy in ways that aren’t yet fully understood, or that short-term disruptions could have long-lasting ripple effects. Some prominent economists are publicly fretting that today’s price increases could set the stage for faster inflation down the road. Historical analogues such as the postwar boom of the 1950s or the “stagflation” era of the 1970s provide at best limited insight into the present moment.

“We can’t dismiss anything at this point because there’s no precedent for any of this,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a forecasting firm.

...

“During normal times, you can just track a handful of indicators to know how the economy is doing,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University who specializes in economic forecasting. “When big shifts are going on, you’re tracking literally hundreds of indicators.”
I'm just saying I'll take 49% any year with the caveat that in a hypothetical year of runaway inflation I reserve the right not to settle for 49%.
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Post by LordMortis »

I'm still living with incredulity. Even trading conservative and investing even more conservative. Even after making some pretty bone headed moves (covered calls in my index holdings). Even after my covered calls almost always see me leaving a lot more money on the table than I take in by being forced out of positions in skyrocketing valuations I don't understand, my net momentum in my personal portfolio is about 10% increase value every three months for over a year. I keep asking when it's time to pull the plug and what should I do if I do pull the plug. I keep not having answers.

If believed I were capable of making decisions that net me a 3% increase every three months, I'd put in my notice today. When will the price be paid? This was the first morning I saw CNBC acknowledged inflation probably isn't transitory as they reported Chipolte is raising price by 4% to provide for wage increases for those in their employ. That when pricing makes it to the counter and payroll, it doesn't go back.
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Post by pr0ner »

Can covered calls really be considered "conservative" investing?
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I came to the conclusion the covered calls was the only for me to do conservative options trading. I could be off the mark on that, as I was when I learned my lesson about things you never want to lose, no matter how outrageous you believe you set the call price at.
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That makes sense. I don't do *any* options trading on my own because I don't understand it well enough to do it, so for me, conservative investing just means buying and holding shares of big name, dividend paying stocks and high rated mutual funds. Plus dumping a lot of money into my government retirement account and just watching it grow.
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pr0ner wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:37 pm That makes sense. I don't do *any* options trading on my own because I don't understand it well enough to do it, so for me, conservative investing just means buying and holding shares of big name, dividend paying stocks and high rated mutual funds. Plus dumping a lot of money into my government retirement account and just watching it grow.

That was me and then I got a taste of TSLA at $250 pre split, so I started buying other individual securities that I started thinking were grossly undervalued. Then COVID happened and I joined the retail investor mania in learning options. Only I have no risk tolerance calls and puts that I don't own. So I started looking for grossly undervalued stocks that could be had for $20 or under a share. If I was comfortable I'd buy in lots of 100 and instantly put out a covered call. If it gets bought, great. If it doesn't I had a reason to believe the stock was worth holding and I have discount. Most of these stocks are dividend stocks, as most of this money would have gone into CDs if it weren't for CDs rates dropping to nothing. And then it's been a year of stupid money. Nearly 50% gain year over year in June. June, after things had already gained back all of their March panic losses and I was already sitting pretty being a buyer in March and April.

This isn't reality.
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Post by LordMortis »

Wendy's has been on my watchlist but not bought since it was around $20 in March as a nice affordable dividend stock that was going to benefit as more and more people leave the home. It was looking increasing attractive as less and less overall looks attractive for what I understand and my cash builds more and more and I feel I am overpaying to increase my index ETFs. This week WEN is now being discussed a meme stock. I'd say I'd kick myself if it continues to rise as it gets more and more attention but the reality is I would have just put out a covered call at $23 or better and it would have been pulled from me at the same rate as everything else being pulled from me... 10% every three months. It's nuts.

Edit: Also this is going to make it hard to make a judgement as to when it's time to start checking out. I'm about two years ahead of schedule when it comes to retirement planning. At the same time, I know this isn't real and I also know that retiring will require me to not just pull everything I own. I've hit the point where I believe I could walk away today and live as pauper but still not have a need for anything to cover sustenance, taxes, and health care. Of course that would ruined if I didn't pull it all right now before a pullback or we get runaway inflation. I really do wish 2 year CDs would go back up to the 3% mark, so I could start setting and forgetting for two years at a time. I was very comfortable with that pace combined with index investing.
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Post by LordMortis »

There seems to be route going on today. I sold my coupla shares of AMD I picked up at $72ish, I think and have been increasing VTI and TROW as the dip or drop unfolds. A covered call from HPE got pulled from a couple of days early so they could hit exdiv date and I've had several paydays accumulating as well maturing CDs. Tomorrow is also going to see a lot of cash returned to me as my GE covered calls get pulled away, A VTI mistake gets pulled away, and ADTN may or may not get pulled away.

With this dip, I'm debating biting the bullet and buying back that VTI covered call (the last of my expensive lessons learned) and taking the hit in addition to the accumulations I've been doing preparing for tomorrow. I'm likely to keep an eye on the trading day tomorrow to see what unfolds.

I wonder if yesterday/today are a blip or the beginning of a trend. Either way, I hope I'm taking advantage as I'd intend to ride a trend down increasing my index holding on the way anyway trying to batten down hatches.
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Bought too much too early. I pulled money out of my buy a bit at every level the way down kitty to buy a bit more now, yesterday. Now there's not enough to buy more today without pulling money I'm not comfortable pulling and I won't have more in pocket until Monday. And maybe when all that cash comes back into my pocket, it'll be a good time to keep more cash. We'll see if I'm that smart. I've been sitting pat for a while now and seeing things move gets me to make less than stellar decisions.

In less than stellar decision making news, what do you guys think of OTLY? When all my money comes back to me this weekend, I'm debating picking up 100 shares of OTLY and doing the covered call thing but I'm not smart enough to parse the books a freshly public company. The trendy world loves them, but they are hemorrhaging money, but that's what companies do when they are growing.

June is on track to be first month my money goes backwards since October after the crazy March to September run. And what a run November to May was.

Anyhoo, third Friday of month. I wish I'd have taken a vacation day. I kinda wish that the third Friday of every month. It's always such a fascinating day to watch the market.
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LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:42 am

Anyhoo, third Friday of month. I wish I'd have taken a vacation day. I kinda wish that the third Friday of every month. It's always such a fascinating day to watch the market.
And I believe today is quadruple witching.
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Post by LawBeefaroni »

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Post by LordMortis »

Yeah, CNBC mentioned that. Cramer also said the 17th - 18th is down for 22 years running. So :pop: . Which is a weird thing to do with my personal retirement fund. I'd still be setting myself up to buy more if I could. It's been about a minute since buying more stuff, so seeing the red is an alluring siren's call to me. :oops:
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Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:23 am Yeah, CNBC mentioned that. Cramer also said the 17th - 18th is down for 22 years running. So :pop: . Which is a weird thing to do with my personal retirement fund. I'd still be setting myself up to buy more if I could. It's been about a minute since buying more stuff, so seeing the red is an alluring siren's call to me. :oops:
Widen the scope. We're still just off all time highs.
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Post by LawBeefaroni »

Surprising some people, apparently, SWBI had a blowout quarter.

Of all the no-brainers...
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Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:35 am
LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:23 am Yeah, CNBC mentioned that. Cramer also said the 17th - 18th is down for 22 years running. So :pop: . Which is a weird thing to do with my personal retirement fund. I'd still be setting myself up to buy more if I could. It's been about a minute since buying more stuff, so seeing the red is an alluring siren's call to me. :oops:
Widen the scope. We're still just off all time highs.
Was going to check in at 09:30 but, you know, work, so I didn't get to check until almost 10:00 and then bought on the cash in pocket plus the dreaded FOMO. Bought back a bunch of my VTI about a $1 higher than at open, and then got stupid, as I am wont to do. I picked up 100 shares of CSCO about $1.5 higher than I should have, 100 shares of PAAS at the price I set, and 100 shares of OTLY about $.5 higher than I should have. Set my covered calls for CSCO, PAAS, and OTLY and now I'm done until mid July unless there's a major shakeup.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

At the beginning of the week, I thought sinking everything back in to equities was going to quickly reveal itself to be a mistake, but stocks only go up, I guess... Both OTLY and CSCO are actually lower four days but their lower is small at this point and more than covered by PAAS and VTI and then you add the covered call discounts.

Oh boy when piper comes to call, I will have a hard time reminding myself how much only up has happened.
LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:36 am Surprising some people, apparently, SWBI had a blowout quarter.

Of all the no-brainers...
It looks like all of the "outdoor" plays have been huge. "Outdoor" seems to be the euphemism for firearms and ammunition companies. When I was growing up, it was "sportsman" companies. Your $2 POWW had made it up to $9 and is only now just beginning to recede a bit. I envy you your ability to analyze and whatever group your are in to put it all together.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I think I got SWBI around $18 and prior to he AOUT split off. SWBI and AOUT are both over $30 now. I did sell a lot of each in the mid 20s but still have some SWBI. IIRC I got 1 share of AOUT for every 4 SWBI for the split?

It was when I was buying VSTO and thought getting some pureplay AOUT was a good idea. Turns out SWBI was just as good (I had more RGR at the time).


Sold half my POWW the first runup, bought some back in the 5s. Technicals say $10.


In other news, MNMD is looking strong. Starting to think it might not get a secondary offering and resultant pullback. Buying DUK on the regular. OSTK is getting to be a big position, may need to trim again. Something's happening with SLGD but volume is so low, no idea what. Still long F.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Wasn't MNMD Carpet_psser's play? I know Cramer was hemhaw pimping them just a couple of weeks ago.

I'm too terrified to buy any energy stocks. That'll bite me but such is life. I don't believe in the future of fossil fuels but I don't know when that future becomes now. It could be five years from now. It could after I'm dead. I don't know how predict when the disruption will happen. But single use plastics and ICE engines are on their way out much faster than the consensus was saying even three years ago.

I won't let F hurt me any more. I bought my few more shares on the cheap way back when and if they go be covered call, they go by covered call, just like various other positions have.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I think MNMD was Carpet's, yes.



It's fine ignoring sectors. I stay out of biotech for the most part. But I'm not in DUK for fossil fuels. I'm in it for fossil fuel alternatives and distribution. They are at about 10% renewable and have the infrastructure and expertise to expand as demand and tech develop. In the meantime they make money and pay a dividend.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Also, MUDS is almost back down to my average cost basis. Allowing 10% down from here. If it hits the mental stop loss, I'm out.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

NEGG (Newegg) is the latest. $70 today, was under $10 a week ago and $3 a few months ago.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

A quick peak at TD
Short Interest
(% of float 06/15/21)
134.88
...
Why is it moving?

Newegg Commerce shares are trading higher. The company earlier announced it now offers professional PC assembly to customers who design their own computers on the Newegg PC Builder.
LOL. Yeah, that's why it's moving. Nothing to do with a Reddit short squeeze.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

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