Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

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malchior
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Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

Post by malchior »

Discussion on fiscal 2022 reconciliation have been spread out across several threads and figured I'd centralize it because it is silly season and we should be getting quite a bit of news about this over the next few weeks. I figured a little recap might not be bad since this is truly all over the forum right now.

What's going on?

If you aren't up to date, most Senate Democrats and many House progressives wanted a $6T bill over 10 years which was negotiated down to $3.5T paid for by rolling back 2017 tax cuts on families making over $400K and raising the Corporate tax back to something near the compromise position for 2017 (between 25 and 28% of profits). Essentially the issues are "human infrastructure" as they are calling it which means bringing family support levels up to what is provided in nearly all advanced economies. That'd mean pre-K and child care which has been a huge issue before and during the pandemic. It is wildly popular with the voters. It'd also mean expansion of medicare benefits and changes to other government programs. Again mostly to bring us to peer levels without the universal healthcare component. It's obviously a lot more than that but just reducing it for a quick-ish summary.

These items were originally bundled in with other infrastructure elements. Those were later broken out in the so-called "bipartisan" infrastructure bill which is awaiting a vote in the House. The House progressives have enough votes to stop that bill unless the reconciliation bill moves forward in lockstep at $3.5T.

What's at stake?

Democracy. The Democrats are going to have a devil of a time in the mid-terms just based on historical patterns. Lump on election shenanigans and redistricting and we have issues. If the Democrats can't get anything done with their majorities it'll dovetail with the other thread proving out this system just can't solve political issues.

What are the immediate issues?

Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema for starters. They both have said they won't sign on to the negotiated number. They are needed to get it through the Senate. Manchin seems to be playing tax defense for his fellow plutocrats. Nice. Sinema's motivations? Who the heck knows.

An emerging issue has appeared now in the House where several House Democrats are opposing an amendment/provision to direct Medicare to engage in negotiations to bring drug prices down. Again the way every advanced economy does but is adjacent to universal healthcare. The 3 Democrats forestalling this all say they don't oppose Medicare negotiating the most expensive drugs but don't want them negotiating across the whole marketplace.

Edit: And as I was typing this out - they blocked it with an exact deadlock. I'll paraphrase the Malcolm Nance rule, "Coincedance takes a whole lot of planning." All three dissenters voted for it last time but all of a sudden are "concerned" about the effect on pharma.

Last edited by malchior on Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Just a quick follow on - there is some minor Pelosi blow back on this vote as well. AOC was supposed to have Rice's seat on the committee but they pushed Rice forward because she was more of a "team player". That seems to have worked out well.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Kraken »

I think (hope) that Pelosi and Biden can get this done. They have to. We won't get the whole magilla, but it will be a major legislative accomplishment nonetheless.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Whatever happened to fireball? I wish he was here to give some inside baseball on this stuff.

But that said, I'd say the odds of a deal happening are something like 70%, just because it's in everyone's interest for something to pass. BUT the odds of catastrophic failure are still depressingly high, because at this point I don't think Sinema and Manchin will agree to $3.5B, so the questions become: (1) is there overlap between the AOC wing and Manchin / Sinema on what they'll accept; and (2) will personalities / pride among a few key people fuck everything up.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:39 pm Whatever happened to fireball? I wish he was here to give some inside baseball on this stuff.
He was running for office (how'd that go anyway?), he needs to be more careful about what he posts online now.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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coopasonic wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:36 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:39 pm Whatever happened to fireball? I wish he was here to give some inside baseball on this stuff.
He was running for office (how'd that go anyway?), he needs to be more careful about what he posts online now.
He won as I recall... Which makes it even less likely he'll post.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by El Guapo »

stessier wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:27 pm
coopasonic wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:36 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:39 pm Whatever happened to fireball? I wish he was here to give some inside baseball on this stuff.
He was running for office (how'd that go anyway?), he needs to be more careful about what he posts online now.
He won as I recall... Which makes it even less likely he'll post.
Oh right.

But what's more important - his political career or keeping strangers on an internet forum mildly more informed?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Smoove_B »

Biden "bombs":
President Biden failed to persuade Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to agree to spending $3.5 trillion on the Democrats' budget reconciliation package during their Oval Office meeting on Wednesday, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Defying a president from his own party — face-to-face — is the strongest indication yet Manchin is serious about cutting specific programs and limiting the price tag of any potential bill to $1.5 trillion. His insistence could blow up the deal for progressives and others.
Overview:
The big picture: Biden predicated his presidency on his ability to appeal to Republicans and help heal the country.

He also counted on dusting off some signature Senate moves to convince his former Republican colleagues to help him usher in a new, post-Trump, bipartisan political world.

With the exception of a bipartisan China bill, the president has had little success persuading Senate Republicans to support his priorities. Opposition hardened after he jammed through a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill in March.

In recent days, Republicans seem even more recalcitrant, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (D-Ky.) insisting Democrats raise the debt ceiling by themselves. and Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) all-but-freezing the Senate's confirmation process.
So yeah, not really the Democrats self-destructing or Biden "bombing" as much as it's the GOP obstructing and apparently doing whatever it is they're doing to keep Manchin happy.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Obstruction was a given in many arenas but reconciliation can be done if not but for Manchin. He is risking the whole goddamn republic to keep him and his buddies filthy rich. Also keep in mind that Manchin's family business is coal. His daughter profited off gouging epipens. He is not a decent man. This is all in his own self-interest damn his poverty stricken state and damn the nation. Anyway, while he is not at McConnell villain levels he is building a villain profile emblematic of the rot that is killing this republic.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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But if Manchin weren't there a Republican would be, and the Senate would belong to McC, who actually is at McConnell villain levels. So there's that. You have to play the hand you're dealt. Manchin is a deuce you can't discard.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

I’ll agree that he’s a deuce alright. 💩
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Smoove_B »

Kraken wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:15 am You have to play the hand you're dealt. Manchin is a deuce you can't discard.
Right, but when you have one (or two) of your own members that outright flatly refuse to "play ball" in any capacity, the GOP never has to wear the mantle of obstructionism in one part of Congress. Manchin or Sinema (or both) can do it for them and continue the narrative that the Democrats can't get out of their own way to get anything done.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:15 am But if Manchin weren't there a Republican would be, and the Senate would belong to McC, who actually is at McConnell villain levels. So there's that. You have to play the hand you're dealt. Manchin is a deuce you can't discard.
Yeah, the weird thing is that Manchin is incredibly frustrating and annoying yet Democrats at the same time need to thank their lucky stars that we somehow got him out of an R+30 electorate or whatever WV is. In some ways I hate Sinema way more since she's now representing a purple state so she has much less of a political excuse for her shitbaggery.

This also makes me hate the Senate even more, because in a perfect world we shouldn't have to care all that much about the WV electorate.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:24 am
Kraken wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:15 am But if Manchin weren't there a Republican would be, and the Senate would belong to McC, who actually is at McConnell villain levels. So there's that. You have to play the hand you're dealt. Manchin is a deuce you can't discard.
Yeah, the weird thing is that Manchin is incredibly frustrating and annoying yet Democrats at the same time need to thank their lucky stars that we somehow got him out of an R+30 electorate or whatever WV is. In some ways I hate Sinema way more since she's now representing a purple state so she has much less of a political excuse for her shitbaggery.

This also makes me hate the Senate even more, because in a perfect world we shouldn't have to care all that much about the WV electorate.
Manchin also reframes the whole Democrat/Republican overton window. Manchin would be a Republican in anytime before say 2000 or so. He is a bit of a foil that shows how batshit crazy the Republican party has gone. And it makes me despise the Senate. It has been the most problematic institution throughout the Republic. It has been redesigned a few times and it still falls back into the same form. It is just too powerful in this framework and all too easy to corrupt.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Emperor Manchin has spoken
President Biden failed to persuade Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to agree to spending $3.5 trillion on the Democrats' budget reconciliation package during their Oval Office meeting on Wednesday, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Defying a president from his own party — face-to-face — is the strongest indication yet Manchin is serious about cutting specific programs and limiting the price tag of any potential bill to $1.5 trillion. His insistence could blow up the deal for progressives and others.

Axios was told Biden explained to Manchin his opposition could imperil the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that's already passed the Senate. Biden's analysis did little to persuade Manchin to raise his top line.

Manchin held his position and appears willing to let the bipartisan bill hang in the balance, given his entrenched opposition to many of the specific proposals in the $3.5 trillion spending package, Axios was told.

While the two left the meeting having made little progress, and are still some $2 trillion apart, the conversation was friendly and they agreed to keep talking.
Fuck that guy.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Scroll up a few. I read it last night and had to step away from the PC for a bit.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

Manchin has the upper hand and thinks the progressives will fold and take his infrastructure bill and a smaller reconciliation bill. Maybe he's right but I doubt it. The progressives have had it with people like Manchin and I suspect so have the American people. Trust in our governmental institutions is declining precipitously. Congress has had approval ratings in the teens for years. The Supreme Court is now in the mid-thirties. We've only been polling 15 years so its hard to contextualize it beyond that it's bad. Biden's approval ratings are in the low 40s now. Biden and the Democrats face a real crisis of confidence unless they start delivering something. Anything at all. This is within their power. They must succeed or we might face ruin.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Zarathud »

Manchin is negotiating publicly. There is no way this gets done easily and without horse trading at the end.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by El Guapo »

That Manchin won't agree to $3.5B isn't really news. The ultimate question is whether there's a number between $1.5B and $3.5B that both Manchin and the progressives will accept.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:27 pm That Manchin won't agree to $3.5B isn't really news. The ultimate question is whether there's a number between $1.5B and $3.5B that both Manchin and the progressives will accept.
One potential problem is that many of progressives are hard on that number thinking they've already compromised. They think this started at $6T. It was negotiated down to $3.5T and now they are hearing $1.5T. What they likely see is he keeps making noise about his own "compromise" bill. He is also dropping op-eds and going on 2-3 shows every Sunday which makes it look like he is preening and self-interested. He has shattered trust with his own party. I think your previous read at 70% is about right but I'm feeling like odds are starting to sink and this might run smack into idiotic debt ceiling hostage taking.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:27 pm That Manchin won't agree to $3.5B isn't really news. The ultimate question is whether there's a number between $1.5B and $3.5B that both Manchin and the progressives will accept.
Numbers are off by a mere 3 orders of magnitude. :)
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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The thing is at the end of the day both parties are better off with a quarter of a loaf (however they define that) than with blowing up the oven. But there's no much emotion and pride involved that there is a real chance of everything blowing up.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:16 pm The thing is at the end of the day both parties are better off with a quarter of a loaf (however they define that) than with blowing up the oven. But there's no much emotion and pride involved that there is a real chance of everything blowing up.
I can only imagine. They must just be sick of this stuff. They can't get anything meaningful done. Except when it's Republicans in charge and then magically they can.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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My guess is $3.0 trillion, just to let everyone save face.

The Republicans will be despicable and force the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling as part of reconciliation without a single Republican vote. The only time the Republicans pretend to be fiscally responsible is when stiggin' it to Democratic priorities.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Smoove_B »

Zarathud wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pm My guess is $3.0 trillion, just to let everyone save face.

The Republicans will be despicable and force the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling as part of reconciliation without a single Republican vote. The only time the Republicans pretend to be fiscally responsible is when stiggin' it to Democratic priorities.
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Senate Republicans say they will vote to allow a debt default, leaving Democrats scrambling for plan to avert economic crisis
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Smoove_B wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:01 pm
Zarathud wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pm My guess is $3.0 trillion, just to let everyone save face.

The Republicans will be despicable and force the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling as part of reconciliation without a single Republican vote. The only time the Republicans pretend to be fiscally responsible is when stiggin' it to Democratic priorities.
I think Zarathud is a wizard...


Senate Republicans say they will vote to allow a debt default, leaving Democrats scrambling for plan to avert economic crisis
Or yaknow. Don't. Let them shoot the hostage.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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The hostage is us.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:26 pm The hostage is us.
I think you’re overstating our value in modern political America.

Or I could be perceiving something that isn’t there, or has always been this way: we, the individual voters, seem to have much less power than we used to. Or maybe not power, but influence with our politicians.

And I’m basing that mostly on the behavior of many modern pols (admittedly mostly/all (R)).
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Zarathud wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:26 pm The hostage is us.
Yep. But here's the thing; Maybe the American populace needs something like this to convince them that politics matter. This would be quite the wake up call yes?

Also, Hyperinflation might just be the "debt jubilee" our country needs.

Also, the resulting economic collapse might just clear out the dead wood zombie banks and corporations that have been kept on life support, buying up and holding vast swathes of housing and real estate.

So yeah. Go ahead Mitch, shoot the goddamn hostage.

The corporate backlash against the Republicans would be epic.

Third edit for:
Every time the Democrats appease we lose something, sometimes big, sometimes small. The average American loses. 50% of America is one missed paycheck away from homelessness. We the people need a slap in the face and a dose of reality. Appeasement by the Democrats, the responsible adults in the room has just gotten us a more radical Republican party.

Spoiler alert: The Republicans and the Democrats want the same thing though, so "reluctantly" they will appease us right into slavery/dystopia in everything but name. Its all kabuki and why I say that our current political system is absolutely positively doomed.

Time to blow up the oven, Its cooking us alive anyway. The Dem's and the R's are bickering over whether to turn up the heat on we the people 20 degrees or 75 degrees. The president should get on the bully pulpit and tie this around the R's necks and let it happen.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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You really do need to stop presenting your viewpoint as that “of the people”. At best, you’re a fringe opinion that the overwhelming majority of the people in this country disagrees with.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:44 pm You really do need to stop presenting your viewpoint as that “of the people”. At best, you’re a fringe opinion that the overwhelming majority of the people in this country disagrees with.
Done. Care to address my point?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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When I see one that doesn’t consist solely of “blow up the system” I will.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:13 pm When I see one that doesn’t consist solely of “blow up the system” I will.
So if not blow it up. How would you, given the existing issues faced, change it?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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By not blowing it all up and causing untold harm to millions of people.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:32 pm By not blowing it all up and causing untold harm to millions of people.
That's not an answer.

Edit for and this plan o mine would UNDOUBTEDLY cause some sort of harm to billions of people, not millions.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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It’s a hell of a lot better than just repeatedly shouting “blow up the system” like a teenager after watching V for Vendetta the first time.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:35 pm It’s a hell of a lot better than just repeatedly shouting “blow up the system” like a teenager after watching V for Vendetta the first time.
People are already being destroyed wholesale by staying WITHIN our system, this oven thing that the pol's have created. They argue about how high to turn the heat this time. You can't just say "Don't blow up the system", and keep crapping on my idea when you don't have an idea of how to fix things yourself. Especially when my idea (distasteful as it is) has several proposed upsides.

The idea that my idea is batshit insane because so many people would have to rebuild from zero again, only holds water if most of us aren't at, or very near zero to begin with, with many many more falling to near zero every day.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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So you believe in a Final Solution. Got it.

Hey, you think 4chan might be a better fit for you? It has a lot of people who feel just like you, I believe. I’m just saying.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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hepcat wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:45 pm So you believe in a Final Solution. Got it.

Hey, you think 4chan might be a better fit for you? It has a lot of people who feel just like you, I believe. I’m just saying.
How the hell did you arrive to that idea? I've been arguing about how we should destroy the oven. Not arguing for it.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Prove me wrong then. I would love for there to be some hope for you.
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