COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

[Smoove_B]

Stay strong. I had someone give me a side-eye a few weeks ago when they noticed a tiny Thanks Science vaccination pin on my jacket. However, being a large guy magically seems to stop people from saying anything to me while I'm masked anywhere. Funny that.

[Zarathud]

Idiot auditors are usually fun times.

We live in a world where we carry Star Trek communicators (cell phones). Why not a world where science can cure disease as well as cancer? I don’t understand but maybe that’s because modern science (via insulin pumps) keeps my kids alive, and can’t neglect its impact on my life.

[Smoove_B]

Some good news (maybe):

How well have the fall 2023 Covid-19 vaccines worked against infection? New data out today.

54% additional protection compared to people that didn’t have the fall vaccine.

A few thoughts:

1. This about the same as flu and honestly better than expected with these types of vaccines and virus mutating so fast (good news!)

2. As expected it works against the newest, highly mutated variants (good news!)

3. It has min. waning (surprising but good news)

She didn't post this yet to her website, so I'll probably re-post when she does as Twitter is still the worst for communicating this kind of thing.

[em2nought]

I was crammed into a room with around 100 other senior citizens the other weekend, and I was the only one wearing a mask. I fully intend to reach the age to draw social security since my brother never did.

[hepcat]

Millions are coming across the border at Taylor Swift’s command and THAT’S what you’re worried about?

[em2nought]

Millions are coming across the border at Taylor Swift’s command and THAT’S what you’re worried about?

Actually, I'm more worried about whether my condo will sell before this worthless fiat currency plunges. Only three showings in two weeks if tomorrow doesn't cancel.

[hepcat]

Covfefe!

[Smoove_B]

U.S. reports more than 2,000 new COVID deaths for the 5th week in a row

I believe the actual number for 5 weeks is north of 12K (at least), but you'd never know. Nearly a 9/11 every week and everything is fine.

[Smoove_B]

Jesus - just seeing this about Oklahoma:

Nearly one in every four American adults who get Covid-19 suffer from long Covid, but a new study found Oklahoma has the highest rate in the country.

According to the study, 34% of adults in Oklahoma who have had Covid are experiencing long Covid.

Dean of OU’s Hudson College of Public Health Dale Bratzler says its due to multiple things, but one reason stands above all others.

“Patients who are not vaccinated have a greater risk of getting Covid-19 long term symptoms,” Bratzler said.

Bratzler says Oklahoma has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, which is a big reason why Oklahoma leads the nation in long Covid.

[Smoove_B]

Pre-print study finding association between adult-onset dementia and COVID-19 infection:

This review primarily aimed to investigate the potential role of COVID-19 in leading to NOD (New Onset Dementia) among older adults aged 60 years and older over various time intervals.

...

Our review incorporated 11 studies, encompassing 939,824 post-COVID-19 cases and 6,765,117 controls. The overall pooled analysis revealed a significant link between COVID-19 infection and an increased risk of NOD (RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.21–2.08).

Data was collected from between 1/2020 and 12/2023 - so a wide range of variants and likely vaccination statuses.


Via Dr. Topol (on Xitter)

The risk of new-onset dementia after Covid in older adults (age 60+) from a systematic review of 11 studies vs controls is ~60% increased; after severe Covid, a 17-fold increased risk; shows up at 6 months

[stessier]

My wife learned her boss was positive on Thursday night. They work in a small toy store, so was definitely a close contact. We immediately began isolating my wife. How long until we're 93% sure she's in the clear? Is it still 5 days?

[Punisher]

My wife learned her boss was positive on Thursday night. They work in a small toy store, so was definitely a close contact. We immediately began isolating my wife. How long until we're 93% sure she's in the clear? Is it still 5 days?

If you ask the right person, it's 0 days because covid is a hoax. Use that and no isolation needed!

[Smoove_B]

My wife learned her boss was positive on Thursday night. They work in a small toy store, so was definitely a close contact. We immediately began isolating my wife. How long until we're 93% sure she's in the clear? Is it still 5 days?

Yes. However, it's 5 full days - meaning her 5 day window started on Friday. She would need to be tested then on Tuesday (2/13) to see if she's positive. Until then, she should mask around the house. Even if she tests negative on Day 10, she should still be masking around others through Day 10 (2/18) and then (in theory) testing the morning of 2/19 to verify continued negative status.

[stessier]

Thanks Tuesday was what I expected.

Yeah, she's masking in all the common spaces. Not that we see her - we all vacate when she leaves the bedroom.

So far, so good - everyone feels fine.

[Smoove_B]

Anecdotally, symptoms seem to be taking longer to appear than they have in prior years. For a while I was seeing reports of the average sliding closer to Day 5 rather than the end of Day 2 into Day 3, though that kind of discussion seems to have slowed down. Right before the holidays there were some articles floating around suggesting it's a result of the experiment we're all living through - the number of times people have had the virus plus mixed vaccination status.

Hopefully it passes without incident.

[stessier]

Interesting.

Both my wife and her boss have all the shots offered (as does the rest of my family). This is the boss' second time getting it - would be the same for my wife if she ends up positive. If that happens, both times would have been from her boss.

The rest of us seemingly still haven't had it.

[Smoove_B]

Again, totally anecdotal, but lots of casual data suggesting that lower-risk encounters - like your wife being around your boss - means it's unlikely she will develop the illness. It's lower risk because (1) both are vaccinated fully and presumably (2) her boss was the only source of the virus in the workspace. The theory being the boss would be shedding lower amounts of the virus and your wife would be protected ("boosted") from all her vaccinations.

What I'd want to know is where the boss acquired it - were they engaging in higher risk behaviors and going into crowded places where virus concentrations would presumably be higher? Here, there's only so much the vaccinations can do and if you inhale a large amount, then the risk of illness increases.

It all comes down to that infectious dose - the magical number of viral particles a person needs to inhale. We still don't know what that is or how vaccination (or prior infections) can influence it. Plus various individual factors.

It's similar thinking for outdoor environments. They're lower risk, but not zero risk. If you're in a crowd and there's not wind or someone just hacks out a large cloud of the virus and you walk through it? Might be equivalent to walking into someone's office with poor air circulation and breathing in their stale, exhaled air.

All this stuff for me is all still awesome to follow and read the research on, but currently still not enjoying the "we all still learning" element happening right now.

[LordMortis]

Deer are (were?) getting COVID which suggests it can spread outdoors pretty easily but that's still within my risk tolerance unless you are in my face.

[Smoove_B]

There was never any doubt it spreads outdoors; it always comes down to under what conditions. I still don't think we clearly understand what's happening with deer. Either they've had real close contact with a few infected humans and they're highly susceptible (and spread it easily among other deer) or there's something else going on with respect to transmission. More concerning are the studies suggesting they're passing it back to us (somehow) in mutated form.

The experiment continues.

[Smoove_B]

Long Covid and kids:

Long Covid may affect 5.8 million children in the U.S., according to an article published on Wednesday in the journal Pediatrics. That’s a large number. It’s also a number that stands in contrast to other published estimates of pediatric long Covid. So, who’s right?

...

According to data provided by KFF, the cumulative number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. at the end of January 2024 was approximately 105 million. If 20% of those cases occurred in children and 20% of those children developed long Covid, then about 4.2 million children in the U.S. should be affected. That’s reasonably close to the number cited by the authors.

Not surprisingly, no one is really sure. It's like trying to get the insurance estimator to cut a check while your house is still on fire. That said, I do think i'ts important to note:

Long Covid remains one of the more vexing aspects of Covid-19. Numerous symptoms affecting various organ systems have been reported. Researchers still can’t predict who is at risk of developing these debilitating sequelae. And clinicians still cannot provide relief. The presence of long Covid in children is a significant public health problem that must be addressed. The extent of the problem, however, remains unknown.

[Blackhawk]

Day one test is negative. Still, I'm laying in bed, dinner diseaten, enjoying my rigors, waiting for the fever that will probably come before morning.

[Isgrimnur]

I hope everything comes out ok.

[em2nought]

Deer are (were?) getting COVID which suggests it can spread outdoors pretty easily but that's still within my risk tolerance unless you are in my face.

I think it also suggests "they" don't want us acquiring our own food.

[Blackhawk]

I hope everything comes out ok.

I
It absolutely did.

[Punisher]

I hope everything comes out ok.

FWIW I'm sitting on the toilet as I read this...

[Smoove_B]

I'm sure this will help:

The Washington Post reported that the CDC is planning on adjusting the rules to be more in line with those that govern the flu and RSV, agency officials said.

The change comes as most people have some sort of immunity to the virus either through vaccination or having COVID-19 in the past.

“Public health has to be realistic,” infectious disease expert Michael T. Osterholm told the Post. “In making recommendations to the public today, we have to try to get the most out of what people are willing to do. … You can be absolutely right in the science and yet accomplish nothing because no one will listen to you.”

The proposed guidance is expected to recommend that if someone tests positive for coronavirus, they should use symptoms to determine when to stop isolating. That means someone who is fever-free for at least 24 hours without medication, or if their symptoms are mild and lessening, they can break isolation, the newspaper reported.

The guidelines are more in line with those of California and Oregon, which said that there is no set time for isolation and people without symptoms don’t have to isolate at all, CNN reported last month.

I genuinely wish I could just zap a part of my brain and forget - like in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. It's this right here:

“In making recommendations to the public today, we have to try to get the most out of what people are willing to do.

Yes, that's exactly how we handled seat belts, helmet laws, indoor smoking bans, drinking and driving and even vaccinations. So instead of focusing on why people aren't listening, we're now in the era of "You Do You".

I'm probably tilting into R&P at this point, so I'll leave it there.

[Pyperkub]

Yeah, that's no way to handle public health. The next pandemic is going to be awful due to the way we've forsaken actual public health.

[Zarathud]

There’s no grassroots build up pushing for safety. We could do better — we should do better — but it’s going to take time to rebuild the political willpower. Social media has enabled our worse selves that do not want to sacrifice for others.

[Kraken]

If the next pandemic takes down people in their prime, attitudes will change quickly. There's a limit to how much the young and healthy will inconvenience themselves for the old and weak.

[Jeff V]

If the next pandemic takes down people in their prime, attitudes will change quickly. There's a limit to how much the young and healthy will inconvenience themselves for the old and weak.

One of the early casualties of Covid was one of my wife's coworkers. I had met her a year earlier at her 39th birthday party, and she had a 2 month old baby at the time of her demise.

Still, even though she works in healthcare, my wife doesn't think of vaccines as an urgent need. Before we went on that cruise in December, me and the kids got our boosters. She did not. Guess who brought home Covid as a souvenir?

[Kraken]

I didn't mean to diminish any deaths, especially before we had any vaccines or treatments. We collectively took it pretty seriously when they were storing bodies in refrigerated trucks and there weren't any hospital beds. But even at its worst, Covid's death rate was around 1% and those were mostly the vulnerable, your wife's coworker notwithstanding. Imagine an equally virulent disease that takes down 3% and doesn't discriminate. Every American would know that Smoove was right all along. But now that it's just a cold that only kills 1,000 Americans a week and disables a few million? Meh.

[LordMortis]

I didn't mean to diminish any deaths, especially before we had any vaccines or treatments. We collectively took it pretty seriously when they were storing bodies in refrigerated trucks and there weren't any hospital beds. But even at its worst, Covid's death rate was around 1% and those were mostly the vulnerable, your wife's coworker notwithstanding. Imagine an equally virulent disease that takes down 3% and doesn't discriminate. Every American would know that Smoove was right all along. But now that it's just a cold that only kills 1,000 Americans a week and disables a few million? Meh.

That depends on news and social media, I think. We're getting pretty good at fooling and insulating ourselves. Early on, I would have agreed with you, but even with the death of young family members in my sphere, there is a strong anti vaccine sentiment among other distrust for public... everything... The only differences between them and MAGA is they still live by the Golden Rule, do quite a bit of charity work, and don't proselytize to anyone but family. (sigh) (Note, liberals aren't immune to this effect either. The effect is just different)

[Smoove_B]

Just to clarify, I think we're about to hit ~20K deaths as of 1/1/24. That is absurd - absurd. Restated, an infectious disease is still a Top 5 killer in the United States in 2024 and we're doing minimal if anything to address it. Every other category on that list? All kinds of things are happening - both public and private - to address reduction. COVID-19? It will apparently just fix itself eventually.

I don't believe there's a magic death number anymore, for what it's worth. If a virus (or if COVID-19 mutates enough) comes along and has a 10% mortality rate in people under the age of 30? The political leanings of the surviving majority will determine what happens next.

Regardless, even if death was the only focus now I know the ship has sailed. And apparently because American health care policy and employment arrangements can't handle people getting sick multiple times a year and needing to convalesce without spreading disease, we need to adjust recommendations to match economic expectations.

At this point, why have any type of infectious disease control programs? What does it even matter anymore?

It's not even 8am and I'm already fucking done.

EDIT: Case in point - from one of the people I follow online: More people died of COVID-19 in January of 2024 in the United States than died of Influenza for the entirety of 2023.

[Pyperkub]

ON the good news side, in CA at least:

Notice how less crowded the cold, flu and COVID aisle is at your local pharmacy?

In California, respiratory virus season is winding down. Fewer colds, coughs, fevers and sick days are interrupting our day-to-day lives now than in late December and early January, when the big three respiratory viruses were all peaking in the state.

Last year was COVID’s least deadly so far, with 6,900 deaths in California, still far outpacing the 400 flu deaths the state had in the same period.

With just a few weeks left in the season, flu and RSV positivity rates and hospitalizations are headed back toward zero, where they tend to stay for much of the year. COVID’s curve is also on the way down this month but will be much more of a roller coaster in the next six months than the other respiratory viruses.

“RSV and influenza have a very well-defined seasonality to them, from late fall through March typically,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health. COVID tends to be at its worst in the winter months, but “COVID has not yet established seasonality,” and we can see peaks in transmission of the virus in the spring and summer as well, he said.

By early February, COVID positivity rates, the percent of tests that come back positive, were down to 7.1%, from a peak this season of just over 12% at the beginning of January. Influenza has dropped more dramatically, down to about 6.5%, after reaching nearly 19% at the end of December.

[Smoove_B]

That's interesting because the BioBot numbers are telling a different story:

Bad News: Biobot #wastewater levels are still rising.

Historically, February is marked by a rapid decline in transmission. 929 copies/mL corresponds to 1.35 million infections per day in the U.S.

[Sudy]

So this means about 1 in 250 US residents are expected to be actively infected/shedding virus? Not 1.35 million new infections each day, obviously....

[Smoove_B]

Yes. It's a leading indicator - suggesting that [X] number of people are currently infected based on the viral copies that are being found in wastewater. The number would include people that (1) don't know they're sick yet but have started shedding the virus (2) are currently experiencing illness and shedding the virus or (3) are in recovery but still shedding.

In a perfect world we'd be comparing these numbers to hospital and lab data - to try and get a handle on estimates vs confirmed - plus a better handle on the people that are actually sick; everything being done now is using all the data gathered from the first few years. We're assuming conditions are the same (probably incorrectly).

More data for the anecdotal pile, I now know someone that tested negative on Day 3 from a home kit but was still feeling like total garbage - even after a visit to a doctor to deal with an ear infection. At my suggestion a another test was taken on Day 5 and confirmed COVID-19 positive.

[Pyperkub]

Trinity team discovers underlying cause of “brain fog” linked with Long COVID

I can't tell if it has been peer-reviewed, but I did click through to the Nature article and it looks pretty thorough, at least.

Of these patients suffering from Long-COVID, just under 50% of them report some form of lingering neurological effect such as cognitive decline, fatigue and brain fog.

Now, the findings reported by the Trinity team in the top international journal Nature Neuroscience showed that there was disruption to the integrity of the blood vessels in the brains of patients suffering from Long COVID and brain fog. This blood vessel “leakiness” was able to objectively distinguish those patients with brain fog and cognitive decline compared to patients suffering from Long-COVID but not with brain fog.

The team led by scientists at the Smurfit Institute of Genetics in Trinity’s School of Genetics and Microbiology and neurologists in the School of Medicine have also uncovered a novel form of MRI scan that shows how Long-COVID can affect the human brain’s delicate network of blood vessels. 

[Blackhawk]

I would assume that it can work the other way - that people suffering from cognitive issues can definitively eliminate long COVID as a cause.

[LordMortis]

the Smurfit Institute