COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Kraken »

Hope you recover fully and quickly, Lee.

Somebody said somewhere that by the end of February, 60% of Americans will have had covid. Maybe if we have to get it eventually, omicron might be the one to get.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Eel Snave wrote: Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:13 pm So my daughter exposed me last week because her cousin was unvaxxed and passed it to HER. Now I'm off of work for two weeks (paid, thank the flying spaghetti monster, blessed be his noodly appendage). This in spite of the fact that I'm triple-vaxxed.

However, I seem to be through the worst of it, although I have literally NO sense of taste or smell and goodness knows when that's coming back.
Oh, man, so sorry, get better soon!
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Eel Snave »

One weird side effect: I think my sleep schedule is fucked now?
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Eel Snave wrote: Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:40 pm One weird side effect: I think my sleep schedule is fucked now?
A friend of mine got it a month ago and his biggest problems were his emotions. He's the nicest most easy going guy I know but he said he had a real problem holding it in while he had covid. Really strange effect.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

Bendii syndrome is no joke.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Eel Snave »

Grifman wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:06 am
Eel Snave wrote: Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:40 pm One weird side effect: I think my sleep schedule is fucked now?
A friend of mine got it a month ago and his biggest problems were his emotions. He's the nicest most easy going guy I know but he said he had a real problem holding it in while he had covid. Really strange effect.
Holy shit, me too! I was mad at EVERYONE the day before I became symptomatic and then for the first couple of days.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Kraken »

Eel Snave wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:46 pm
Grifman wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:06 am
Eel Snave wrote: Sat Dec 25, 2021 12:40 pm One weird side effect: I think my sleep schedule is fucked now?
A friend of mine got it a month ago and his biggest problems were his emotions. He's the nicest most easy going guy I know but he said he had a real problem holding it in while he had covid. Really strange effect.
Holy shit, me too! I was mad at EVERYONE the day before I became symptomatic and then for the first couple of days.
We recently learned that when SARS-CoV-2 reaches the heart, it can travel to every organ in the body, including the brain. Some believe that this explains long covid -- the body takes a long time to clear the virus from non-respiratory tissues (or it goes dormant). It could also explain the loss of smell and taste, as well as "covid fog."
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Eel Snave »

That's fascinating and terrible in equal measure.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Kraken »

My sister in Mich. thinks she has the 'rona. Despite being an immunocompromised cancer patient, she gathered for xmas with her local family. Six days later, right on schedule, she has mild cold symptoms and is isolating. Of course, there are no home tests available and the public testing sites are mobbed and slow to report. It *could* just be a cold; she has no specifically covid symptoms. But she does have to postpone her next infusion.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:22 pm Smoove, you didn't choose fun.
The CDC is catching up to me.


The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said people should avoid cruise travel regardless of vaccination status, following a jump in onboard COVID-19 cases, in a major blow to the industry that has been ravaged by the pandemic.
Here's the fuct up thing. I know someone (a family) that left for a cruise this weekend.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:22 pm The CDC is catching up to me.
Yeah. They're catching up to spring 2020 you.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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:D

In better news, boosters for 12-15 year olds might be coming next week.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Hmmm. Ok, so that question is answered. But can the CDC tell me whether I should walk maskless through a COVID ward?
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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El Guapo wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 3:04 pm Hmmm. Ok, so that question is answered. But can the CDC tell me whether I should walk maskless through a COVID ward?
I've suggested community service in COVID wards for the anti-vax / anti-mask folks that are disrupting businesses. We can study them to see what happens and make recommendations from there.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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El Guapo wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 3:04 pm Hmmm. Ok, so that question is answered. But can the CDC tell me whether I should walk maskless through a COVID ward?
What would your boss prefer?
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by FishPants »

Ontario is on fire with Omicron, it's now 100% of our cases (well 96% of test results reported today were omicron.. How would you like to be one of the last 4% delta losers?).

14k reported cases, with zero PCR testing capacity left which means it's far worse (this is a huge increase, it's doubling every couple of days it would appear) - today the government announced they are no longer PCR testing unless you are immune compromised, health care worker or someone else 'at risk'. Otherwise, suck it up and isolation is now 5 days instead of 10 with Omicron. Sure looks like we are ripping the bandaid off and letting this wave burn out - I know so many people that are infected it's crazy. I've had some sniffles since a potential exposure, but my rapid test says no (and the person that was exposed had more than sniffles but nothing serious).

I'm wondering now if it's not smarter to be exposed to Omicron to get some level of immunity with my 3 shots and put this behind us for the short term - the hospitalizations here being reported apparently are around 50% incidental (in for other reasons, oh and btw you have covid). Sure glad this wasn't Delta spreading this fast, but this is no joke frightening how fast this shit is moving up here.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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FishPants wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:21 pm
I'm wondering now if it's not smarter to be exposed to Omicron to get some level of immunity with my 3 shots and put this behind us for the short term - the hospitalizations here being reported apparently are around 50% incidental (in for other reasons, oh and btw you have covid).
Keep in mind that while the odds may be very low, there's no guarantee that it will be "mild" - I have an acquaintance that got covid in the middle of last year, got vaccinated, got boosted and despite "natural immunity", vaccination and boost they still managed to get omicron and had to go to the hospital for a couple of days. And if you go to the hospital when it's overloaded, you won't get the standard of care you need.

I'm also bothered by the possibility that, just like Delta antibodies aren't as effective against Omicron, perhaps Omicron antibodies aren't as effective against variants like Delta, in which case we might see a resurgence of Delta down the line.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Max Peck »

Yeah, if you're going to gamble you need to consider the stakes as well as the odds. Besides, given how useless prior infection is as protection against Omicron, what are the odds that natural Omicron resistance will make any difference when variant Double Plus Omega rolls into town?

Besides...

From what I've read, all the policy changes here in Ontario are using the new CDC guidelines as cover. The provincial government was going to roll out new policies on Tuesday, but when the CDC came out with their new take that was delayed by a couple of days so that Ontario could jump on the bandwagon. So we know how well thought out this all has been.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Anecdotally I feel like I'm in the middle of a warzone. Off the top of my head I know 10 friends who have it *right now* - that's more friends/co-workers sick this week than I knew in the past 2 years combined. :shock:
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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COVID-19 has killed 5 million people—and the pandemic is far from over
COVID-19 has now killed more than five million people worldwide. It is yet another grim milestone in a seemingly endless stream of them. In many countries, including the United States, COVID-19 is now a leading cause of death, alongside heart disease and stroke. And yet experts say the pandemic’s true toll is likely much higher.

“It’s quite possible that the number of deaths is double what we see,” says Amber D’Souza, professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “But five million is such a staggering number on its own. No country has been able to escape it.”
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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The projection in the US is that we are going to go from an estimated 1.5 million cases/day to 3 million by the end of the month, which will mean about 60 to 70 million people sick. By default we are going to go into staggered "lockdowns" not by govt decree but by medical necessity - tens of millions of people will be sick and unable to work. Already several restaurants in my city have temporarily closed due to staff being sick and 20% of the NYC police force is out sick. Deliveries will not be made, shelves will not be stocked. I strongly suggest that everyone make sure that they have about two to three weeks of food stocked up and that you keep your gas tank full. The next month is going to be tough for everyone, even those that don't get sick.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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I have had two to three weeks of food put back since spring of 2020. And two extra packs of toilet paper.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Grifman wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:36 am The projection in the US is that we are going to go from an estimated 1.5 million cases/day to 3 million by the end of the month
:?:

Last I saw the high was ~ 700,000 / day?
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:45 pm
Grifman wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:36 am The projection in the US is that we are going to go from an estimated 1.5 million cases/day to 3 million by the end of the month
:?:

Last I saw the high was ~ 700,000 / day?
The official count is just what is actually known - estimates of the true daily infection is much higher, at least twice as high as the official count.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by El Guapo »

Grifman wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:20 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:45 pm
Grifman wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:36 am The projection in the US is that we are going to go from an estimated 1.5 million cases/day to 3 million by the end of the month
:?:

Last I saw the high was ~ 700,000 / day?
The official count is just what is actually known - estimates of the true daily infection is much higher, at least twice as high as the official count.
3 million a day would get us to the entire U.S. population by April (even assuming no current immunity). So if that's the reality, at least we'll achieve herd immunity soon.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:24 pm So if that's the reality, at least we'll achieve herd immunity soon.
He says unironically as the virus has currently mutated to a point where it can evade immunity.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:38 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:24 pm So if that's the reality, at least we'll achieve herd immunity soon.
He says unironically as the virus has currently mutated to a point where it can evade immunity.
Evades prior immunity. There’s no reason to expect that it can evade omicron immunity is there?
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by gilraen »

RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:57 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:38 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:24 pm So if that's the reality, at least we'll achieve herd immunity soon.
He says unironically as the virus has currently mutated to a point where it can evade immunity.
Evades prior immunity. There’s no reason to expect that it can evade omicron immunity is there?
There's no reason to expect that it's done mutating.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Zarathud »

This is where our national ignorance of science bites us in the ass. Planning on herd immunity was stupid when the virus could be like the flu — our immunity aligns to one type but the virus mutates annually. So there are regularly strains you can’t fight off without a flu booster, assuming (1) science guesses right that year and (2) you get the flu shot.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Smoove_B »

gilraen wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:01 am There's no reason to expect that it's done mutating.
And when we've engaged in a "let 'er rip" plan across a population of people with mixed immunity and vaccination status? It's like the American Ninja Warrior obstacle course for the virus and whatever one can figure out how to negotiate through mixed-status human fuel is the winner.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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RunningMn9 wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:57 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:38 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:24 pm So if that's the reality, at least we'll achieve herd immunity soon.
He says unironically as the virus has currently mutated to a point where it can evade immunity.
Evades prior immunity. There’s no reason to expect that it can evade omicron immunity is there?
I'm not really making any point or assertion about herd immunity, so much as I'm trying to assess whether a "true" number of 3,000,000 cases/day in the U.S. is plausible or not. One implication of the number is that literally every single American would get it by April.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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NEW: Boosters for 12-15 year olds get approval from the FDA for Pfizer vaccine.

5 month spacing from second shot recommended.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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El Guapo wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:49 am I'm not really making any point or assertion about herd immunity, so much as I'm trying to assess whether a "true" number of 3,000,000 cases/day in the U.S. is plausible or not. One implication of the number is that literally every single American would get it by April.
Then stop using loaded terms like "herd immunity". :wink:

Without protections and knowing the virus can defeat current immunity protections, the only thing stopping it is human behavior. I wouldn't expect literally every single person to get it, no. There's also no way for us to verify actual numbers either - just estimates based on whatever testing ceiling we're about to hit (or have already hit). I'm honestly not sure what the peak reporting numbers will be anymore - all I see are guesses.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:58 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:49 am I'm not really making any point or assertion about herd immunity, so much as I'm trying to assess whether a "true" number of 3,000,000 cases/day in the U.S. is plausible or not. One implication of the number is that literally every single American would get it by April.
Then stop using loaded terms like "herd immunity". :wink:

Without protections and knowing the virus can defeat current immunity protections, the only thing stopping it is human behavior. I wouldn't expect literally every single person to get it, no. There's also no way for us to verify actual numbers either - just estimates based on whatever testing ceiling we're about to hit (or have already hit). I'm honestly not sure what the peak reporting numbers will be anymore - all I see are guesses.
Isn't herd immunity a common scientific term? I can see how it could be triggering given that during the pandemic it's probably mostly used by "let 'er rip" types, but what's the proper term for the concept?

Also, is it really true that the virus can flat out defeat immunity protections? I gather that prior infection from Delta or other variants seems to provide little (but probably not zero?) protection against omicron, but presumably a prior omicron infection gives protection against a second omicron infection, right? And presumably with future variants having some prior infection will give you somewhere between zero and strong protection against reinfection (depending upon a bunch of other factors, most likely).
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Smoove_B »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:14 pm Isn't herd immunity a common scientific term? I can see how it could be triggering given that during the pandemic it's probably mostly used by "let 'er rip" types, but what's the proper term for the concept?
.

There is no proper term for what's happening now. Herd immunity is a planned, intentional state. What we're doing now is the exact opposite of that.
Also, is it really true that the virus can flat out defeat immunity protections? I gather that prior infection from Delta or other variants seems to provide little (but probably not zero?) protection against omicron, but presumably a prior omicron infection gives protection against a second omicron infection, right? And presumably with future variants having some prior infection will give you somewhere between zero and strong protection against reinfection (depending upon a bunch of other factors, most likely).
Yes, it can bypass immunity. I haven't seen much chatter yet on Omicron re-infection, but yes, prior infection of the other variants or the O.G. strain are not protective against Omicron. Some protection, but not as much as 3 vaccine series. It's likely too soon to know what will happen if someone with an Omicron strain COVID infection is exposed to Omicron again - let's see in another 4/5 months. Maybe they'll get it again and it will be more mild. Or maybe it will be like dengue and they'll have it worse the second time.

This timeline is the worst.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:28 pmYes, it can bypass immunity. I haven't seen much chatter yet on Omicron re-infection, but yes, prior infection of the other variants or the O.G. strain are not protective against Omicron. Some protection, but not as much as 3 vaccine series. It's likely too soon to know what will happen if someone with an Omicron strain COVID infection is exposed to Omicron again - let's see in another 4/5 months. Maybe they'll get it again and it will be more mild. Or maybe it will be like dengue and they'll have it worse the second time.

This timeline is the worst.
I don't get why so many people have such high levels of certainty about omicron when it was discovered less than 2 months ago.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by RunningMn9 »

I understand that the worry is that it mutates again. What I meant was that if omicron cannot evade omicron immunity, and it’s ripping through the population with the quickness, then the question becomes whether it runs out of new hosts before it mutates in way that evades omicron immunity.

If I have a population of 100 people, and 99 of those people gain immunity through infection or vaccination, then it doesn’t really matter, does it? If that last person doesn’t get infected, there’s no where for the virus to go.

I assume that’s what others are saying when they say “herd immunity”.
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Smoove_B »

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:49 pm I understand that the worry is that it mutates again. What I meant was that if omicron cannot evade omicron immunity, and it’s ripping through the population with the quickness, then the question becomes whether it runs out of new hosts before it mutates in way that evades omicron immunity.
It's a difficult question to answer because it will never run out of hosts. The vaccines we have offer protection, but they're not 100%. With increased communicability, the virus is likely always going to be somewhere in a "mixed status" environment - people with varied degrees of protection.

When you have a virus that spreads via the airborne route, trying to stop it during a pandemic from spreading isn't going to happen with vaccinations - like we did with polio (epidemic). This is why public health continues to push for masking - because masks help to reduce spread.
If I have a population of 100 people, and 99 of those people gain immunity through infection or vaccination, then it doesn’t really matter, does it? If that last person doesn’t get infected, there’s no where for the virus to go.

I assume that’s what others are saying when they say “herd immunity”.
Right, that's the theory - but I'm not sure the classic models where we use herd immunity apply here. The closest we could come is likely using measles, but we've all been vaccinated against it (well, largely). We'd need to imagine something like measles emerging tomorrow and how it would look. My guess? A lot like COVID-19, but with rashes.

Our best model for disease control is what they did for smallpox - the ring vaccination method, but that's not happening here.

What's happening with COVID is you have the entire US population at mixed levels of transmissible ability based on their prior exposure or vaccination status. I can't even begin to imagine how to mathematically model risk in that scenario - where you have a room of 100 people of mixed status and trying to figure how average risk and individual risk for a virus that (currently) has immune escape coded into it.

Regardless (sorry for the digression) herd immunity by definition is a "steady state" - where a magical number of people are suppressing spread. While we are in uncontrolled spread (locally, regionally, nationwide, globally), herd immunity (as a concept) isn't applicable. It's short-circuiting my brain to think about it. :D

Just by way of example, the biggest outbreak I ever worked on impacted a facility that included about 700 people. At no point during the outbreak did we just say, "Well, eventually the ~100 people that are sick are just going to end up giving it to the other 600 and we'll reach herd immunity, so let's pack it up and go home." I think that's probably the core issue here that continues to be lost. Public health workers are trained - sometimes legally mandated - to stop outbreaks. A pandemic is really just a global outbreak. So when we hear people say, "Eh, we will all get it" or "Herd immunity will eventually protect us..." it's like nails on a chalkboard - it goes against our core modeling. I am wired and trained to stop this. So are my peers. And we're being told (largely) not to bother. I still can't describe adequately what that feels like.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Smoove_B
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Some important notes on the latest pill designed to treat people with COVID-19:
The first Covid-19 antiviral pills that can be taken at home are a new treatment option for infected people, but they carry safety warnings and limitations that could complicate treatment decisions for patients, doctors and pharmacists.

In December, the Food and Drug Administration authorized the use of new pills from Merck & Co., with its partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and Pfizer Inc., for the treatment of mild to moderate Covid-19 in people at high risk of worsening to severe disease, such as the elderly or those with certain chronic medical conditions.
In short - pregnant women and people taking cholesterol medications should not be given this drug. Overall quite helpful, but that knocks out a significant number of at-risk populations.

In addition to the specific cholesterol medication, there are other potential red flags:
The FDA-authorized fact sheet for Paxlovid lists many drugs that shouldn’t be taken at the same time as Paxlovid because of CYP3A interactions.

In addition to simvastatin, they include certain antipsychotics, analgesics and the herbal product St. John’s Wort. Certain other drugs may be co-administered with Paxlovid, but with dosing adjustments to ensure safety.
And always watch that semen
And the FDA says females of childbearing age should use reliable contraception during treatment and for four days after the last dose. Males who are sexually active with females of childbearing potential should use contraception during treatment and for at least three months after the last dose.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Alefroth
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Re: COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

Post by Alefroth »

El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:24 pm
Grifman wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:20 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:45 pm
Grifman wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:36 am The projection in the US is that we are going to go from an estimated 1.5 million cases/day to 3 million by the end of the month
:?:

Last I saw the high was ~ 700,000 / day?
The official count is just what is actually known - estimates of the true daily infection is much higher, at least twice as high as the official count.
3 million a day would get us to the entire U.S. population by April (even assuming no current immunity). So if that's the reality, at least we'll achieve herd immunity soon.
Assuming it stayed at 3M/day until April, which it likely wouldn't.
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