Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[Grifman]

If it's not Trump it will be DeSantis, as he is Trump "lite". He's been a successful governor (in the minds of Republicans anyway) and he's a Trump lackey so there's that. He checks all the boxes. And if Biden doesn't decide to run for reelection, I don't see the Democrats beating him. They will put up a minority or female candidate and I just don't see either defeating a Trumpist. I don't see an minority or woman winning against the Republicans until the demographics change more. - with one exception. The real question I think is how much of Trump's "new" base comes out if he's not on the ticket. He pulled in a ton of new or infrequent voters last time - otherwise Biden would have swamped him. That was totally unexpected. Can the Republicans keep them? Or was this just a one time event? I don't know the answer to this.

[El Guapo]

Biden is going to run for reelection.

I agree that DeSantis is probably the frontrunner right now if Trump doesn't run, but there's a lot of time between now and when the 2024 season begins in earnest, so there's time for things to change significantly.

[gbasden]

God damn. I mean, I know Republicans are evil, but wow. If there was one police brutality case that I thought they would take a pass on, it was Chauvin.

[Scraper]

The problem with Desantis on a national scale is that he is nowhere near as charismatic as Trump. When you have no actual policy (Trump) then you have to run on buzzwords and triggering your base, basically saying a bunch of nonsense in front of large crowds that has no substance but delivering it in a way to rile the crowd up. Desantis can't do that. So I do hope it's Desantis vs. Biden, because I think Biden beats him by even more than 7 million votes.

[Smoove_B]

Mike Pompeo? Really?

Longtime Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said he was impressed by Christie, who urged Republicans to get more aggressive in hammering Biden and the Democrats for “overreaching” with their liberal agenda. Cole said he’s a “big fan” of both Pompeo and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who were both members of the RSC when they served in the House.

But Cole said he has no 2024 favorite if Trump decides to pass on another run.

“It’s too early to make those decisions,” Cole said.

[Holman]

God damn. I mean, I know Republicans are evil, but wow. If there was one police brutality case that I thought they would take a pass on, it was Chauvin.

No, this is perfect for them. If they can get their people to defend this murder, they can count on their people to defend *anything*.

[Holman]

Mike Pompeo? Really?

Pompeo has been positioning himself as the Christian Right's most aggressive champion in ways that almost always went under the radar during the Trump years. Ted Cruz makes a lot of noise and Mark Rubio quotes a lot Bible verses, but Pompeo steered American foreign policy towards a whole slew of "religious liberty" issues while most of us weren't looking. And he made sure to promote all of it in interviews and at religious-right conferences that most of us never noticed.

He's a Dominionist, and they know it.

[El Guapo]

Mike Pompeo? Really?

Pompeo has been positioning himself as the Christian Right's most aggressive champion in ways that almost always went under the radar during the Trump years. Ted Cruz makes a lot of noise and Mark Rubio quotes a lot Bible verses, but Pompeo steered American foreign policy towards a whole slew of "religious liberty" issues while most of us weren't looking. And he made sure to promote all of it in interviews and at religious-right conferences that most of us never noticed.

Yeah, it's been pretty clear for awhile that Pompeo wanted to run in 2024. I'm skeptical of his chances, but crazier things have happened.

[malchior]

An experiment that might have long-term impacts on the lives of children ... I don't know how that's going to play out with the wide electorate.

However, the most important quote in the The Atlantic piece attached to the tweet might be here:

DeSantis’s rise also owes much to his critics. The Florida governor has figured out that Republicans love a culture-war brawl, but that overdoing it can alienate a general-election electorate. His solution has been to provoke narrowly targeted fights over issues that matter a lot to highly engaged conservatives and liberals—but that will not mean much to anybody else come 2024.

On April 19, for example, DeSantis signed a bill that imposes tough new penalties on disorderly protesters. This law immediately sparked a deluge of negative stories in liberal media and on social media. Vanity Fair headlined its story: “Florida’s Trump-Loving Governor Just Made It OK to Hit Protesters With Your Car.” Anything that so triggered the libs had to be good law, as far as Fox News and its media universe were concerned, so DeSantis collected positive reviews there for his “anti-riot” law.

The governor pocketed those media winnings and then rapidly pivoted back to the middle, professing puzzlement as to what all the fuss was about. He tweeted on April 21: “.@PolkCoSheriff says it best: Peaceful protests are fine, but rioting, looting, burning businesses and ruining lives, that’s not acceptable.” DeSantis practices a form of political judo that works by employing judicious but limited provocation, followed by a deft, just-in-time retreat to the center, converting the opponent’s strength and energy into a resource for DeSantis.

[LordMortis]

"When others panicked or yielded, he took the risk ... [with]... a generation of Florida kids[and the staff that serve them]"

But that messaging will work with the 30% of vaccine "hesitant" much less those that vocally while they get vaccinated. That is no small percentage of the voting populace.

[El Guapo]

At the end of the day I don't think the GOP primary is all that much of a mystery. If Trump runs it's hard to see how the nomination gets denied to him, unless something changes dramatically between now and 2023 (Trump going to jail, Trump dying / having some severe health setback, some seismic culture shift within the GOP).

If he doesn't run, then I think the single most important factor will be who he endorses, as I expect that whoever that is will become the frontrunner as the person virtually endorsed by God. I do worry somewhat about DeSantis, for the reasons that Frum is getting into here - seems like he has some skill at triggering the enthusiasm of conservative MAGA culture warriors while tacking back enough to not freak out moderates.

[malchior]

At the end of the day I don't think the GOP primary is all that much of a mystery. If Trump runs it's hard to see how the nomination gets denied to him, unless something changes dramatically between now and 2023 (Trump going to jail, Trump dying / having some severe health setback, some seismic culture shift within the GOP).

So realistically Trump dying.

If he doesn't run, then I think the single most important factor will be who he endorses, as I expect that whoever that is will become the frontrunner as the person virtually endorsed by God. I do worry somewhat about DeSantis, for the reasons that Frum is getting into here - seems like he has some skill at triggering the enthusiasm of conservative MAGA culture warriors while tacking back enough to not freak out moderates.

Yeah. I don't think he'll be able to keep that up under the Presidential microscope but maybe he could. I think Frum has pointed out something interesting to watch at least. And I'm glad Frum pointed it out early. Now folks can at least figure out a strategy to knock him out of that balance.

[El Guapo]

I will say re: DeSantis that his plan would work best if Trump endorsed him but then mostly stayed in the background. Trump's not going to be able to do that, which will make it easier paint DeSantis as Trump's tool, which will in turn make it easier to scare people out of the Fox News bubble.

[Carpet_pissr]

No Trump kids in this conversation?! I would think order of likelihood (of winning a primary):

1. Trump
2. A Trump spawn
3. DeSantis and other Trump coat tailers
4. Pence, and others who probably would want to distance themselves from Trump - the so-called RINO's like Romney, et al.

[Octavious]

I think they will again pick whatever is the most ridiculous person that will stick it to the left. So the more insane you are the better. So Christie doesn't have a shot in hell. I have my money on DeSantis and that makes me so sad. He's such a sack of shit just like most of them.

[YellowKing]

I still think from a bird's-eye view, the GOP is in real trouble. They can't win a popular vote, they couldn't win with an incumbent President. And that was *with* a media-personality candidate that could pull in people with charisma and name recognition alone. People are leaving the party in record numbers, and they still continue to double down on crazy.

If Trump runs again and wins the nomination, sure they have a chance. They'll get unbelievable voter turnout from those who thought the election was stolen. Anyone else? Meh. Their only play right now is winning Congressional seats and governorships. This party is fucked from a presidential perspective.

[Jaymann]

There are major advantages to being the incumbent. One that comes to mind is if state houses try to overrule the popular vote it could be litigated for months or years. Meanwhile the incumbent remains in office.

[Octavious]

I still think from a bird's-eye view, the GOP is in real trouble. They can't win a popular vote, they couldn't win with an incumbent President. And that was *with* a media-personality candidate that could pull in people with charisma and name recognition alone. People are leaving the party in record numbers, and they still continue to double down on crazy.

If Trump runs again and wins the nomination, sure they have a chance. They'll get unbelievable voter turnout from those who thought the election was stolen. Anyone else? Meh. Their only play right now is winning Congressional seats and governorships. This party is fucked from a presidential perspective.

I thought that when Bush ran us into the ground and we instantly did a 180 to f'n Trump. I really hope you are right, but I'm not nearly as optimistic. I know that's shocking.

[LordMortis]

The GOP have people and the electoral college is stacked in their favor.

3 months in, Biden is being painted as a disingenuous tax and spend democrat with... get this... abuses with his executive privilege. He will be challenged no matter who is running. It may be "when Americans desperately need infrastructure (as if we didn't in 2017-2020) he is trying to spend your road money on child care so immigrants go get a free overpriced education and subsidize green energy to put the coal workers out of business."

I don't buy the thesis that the GOP don't know how to attack Biden. They attack him the same way they attack all democrats. He's coming for your hard earned dollars. He's going to raise your taxes, raise the national debt, and give away the farm to those who don't deserve it and didn't pay for it.

[El Guapo]

I still think from a bird's-eye view, the GOP is in real trouble. They can't win a popular vote, they couldn't win with an incumbent President. And that was *with* a media-personality candidate that could pull in people with charisma and name recognition alone. People are leaving the party in record numbers, and they still continue to double down on crazy.

If Trump runs again and wins the nomination, sure they have a chance. They'll get unbelievable voter turnout from those who thought the election was stolen. Anyone else? Meh. Their only play right now is winning Congressional seats and governorships. This party is fucked from a presidential perspective.

I thought that when Bush ran us into the ground and we instantly did a 180 to f'n Trump. I really hope you are right, but I'm not nearly as optimistic. I know that's shocking.

Yeah, I'm on the same page. Especially when Trump came within ~ 100,000ish votes in key states from winning the electoral college even while losing by millions of votes. Plus if Republicans can take the House and Senate by 2024 then they'll be in a much better position than they were in 2020 to change the outcome in Congress and the courts.

[malchior]

Yeah, I'm on the same page. Especially when Trump came within ~ 100,000ish votes in key states from winning the electoral college even while losing by millions of votes.

This is the math that I think most people don't understand. We avoided probable authoritarianism by a coin flip. Trump won the first time by a coin flip. Is the next election a coin flip? Hard to say but probably somewhere in that range. It'll be tight. They're easily a favorite to take the House next year. If some don't believe that yet...I get it but straight look backs give them a better than 50% chance just based on history. And they are changing voting rules and later this year will ram through gerrymandering in key states. In any case, narratives about the demise of the GOP are...wishful thinking in my book. They may be running anyone but the crazies out but it doesn't matter in the current framework.

Plus if Republicans can take the House and Senate by 2024 then they'll be in a much better position than they were in 2020 to change the outcome in Congress and the courts.

I also expect they are going to slow down judicial appointments and try to continue their reverse court packing scheme from the last 4 years of Obama. Leave seats open and hope to fill them in 2024 and on.

[YellowKing]

Coin flip or no, we can look at the history and see what actually happened vs what *could* happen. It may be a coin flip, but that coin is weighted and close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

I don't think the current trajectory the GOP is on (doubling down on crazy, making their political platform pwning libs) is in any way, shape, or form a long-term recipe for success.

Or to put it in sports terms, it may be anybody's ball game with my team only up 5 points. But I'd still rather be the one on top.

And yes, I'm much more optimistic than most on this board, but that's just my nature. I tend to believe over the long-term and over the broad spectrum of American society, we tend to move in the right direction.

[Octavious]

My greatest fear is that Trump basically created a roadmap on how to overturn an election. If they had the house and senate he would still be in office I have no doubt about that.

[malchior]

Coin flip or no, we can look at the history and see what actually happened vs what *could* happen. It may be a coin flip, but that coin is weighted and close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

Right but the coin flip only gets you short-term control of policy (if you are a Democrat). If you are a Republican it has a little more power because the Democrats sometimes come along and frankly Republicans understand that the President is more of a king and abuses that power.

I don't think the current trajectory the GOP is on (doubling down on crazy, making their political platform pwning libs) is in any way, shape, or form a long-term recipe for success.

Or to put it in sports terms, it may be anybody's ball game with my team only up 5 points. But I'd still rather be the one on top.

Except the GOP *is winning*. Even in supposed "defeat" because they can and will stop nearly all progress. They've got the Courts. They've got a permanent EC advantage. They have a fairly sizable advantage in the Senate. They've got States. They've got money behind them - despite recent retreats which are already beginning to reverse themselves. We're in deep, deep, deep fucking trouble as a liberal democracy. The Democrats have the House and Senate and may very well get jack shit done. The chances they'll lose the House are very high. If your team is the Democrats, you are down 3 touchdowns and a field goal in the 4th quarter right now. Your team manages to shutdown some big players and wrestle possession every once in awhile but you keep having to punt without making up ground. That is what is actually happening. The Democrats have been losing...badly.

And yes, I'm much more optimistic than most on this board, but that's just my nature. I tend to believe over the long-term and over the broad spectrum of American society, we tend to move in the right direction.

Which is understandable but it is useful to keep in mind we've been very lucky as a nation. We've had no enemies on our borders for hundreds of years. Our only competition was ourselves. The Soviet Union was scary but they were flawed. We can't count on weak adversaries like that anymore. We can't rely on seemingly endless resources anymore. Our supply chains are global now and we depend on our adversaries. That is where much of this pressure is coming from.

Optimism can be a good thing when the chips are slightly down but the reality is way past slightly down to downright daunting. I'm not counseling pessimism but the reality is we are at far greater odds of a bad to terrible future for a lot of folks in our nation right now. And people don't even know what is coming. We have the potential for *very dark* times.

My greatest fear is that Trump basically created a roadmap on how to overturn an election. If they had the house and senate he would still be in office I have no doubt about that.

That is part of the problem here. The GOP punished pretty much everyone who didn't fall in line. That wasn't an accident. They want people to pull the trigger next time. They made sure people knew what the price was for disloyalty. And they also took notes and are *right now* making the changes to minimize the need to threaten an election again. They're counting on people thinking it can't happen here.

[El Guapo]

FWIW I'm more optimistic about the long term than malchior is, in part because historically things do generally get better over the long term, and because even if the GOP successfully consolidates minority rule, that won't last forever because it can't.

But the medium term has the potential to be *fucking rough*.

[malchior]

FWIW I'm more optimistic about the long term than malchior is, in part because historically things do generally get better over the long term, and because even if the GOP successfully consolidates minority rule, that won't last forever because it can't.

Yeah don't mistake this for talking about the world or super long-term. It is more that the United States showed that we have potential to go to a very dark place. We have serious social ills that we don't see anywhere else in the world. And we have no outlets to fix them and the direction right now is backwards against the wishes of the majority. It is a recipe for disaster.

But the medium term has the potential to be *fucking rough*.

Exactly.

[YellowKing]

Yeah I absolutely agree we could be in for some rough patches over the short term. Hell, the past 4 years proved that without a shadow of a doubt. Do I see up-and-coming generations embracing authoritarianism, gender discrimination, racism, climate denial, and other cornerstones of the GOP? Nah.

[El Guapo]

Yeah I absolutely agree we could be in for some rough patches over the short term. Hell, the past 4 years proved that without a shadow of a doubt. Do I see up-and-coming generations embracing authoritarianism, gender discrimination, racism, climate denial, and other cornerstones of the GOP? Nah.

No, but if 40%ish percent of the current generation embraces that stuff, then it won't matter what the up and coming generations think for awhile.

[malchior]

Yeah I absolutely agree we could be in for some rough patches over the short term. Hell, the past 4 years proved that without a shadow of a doubt. Do I see up-and-coming generations embracing authoritarianism, gender discrimination, racism, climate denial, and other cornerstones of the GOP? Nah.

No, but if 40%ish percent of the current generation embraces that stuff, then it won't matter what the up and coming generations think for awhile.

That's the unfortunate truth. For me - medium term may be a generation or slightly longer. If you look at where we were in 2001 and look now...we did not get better. Our politics got way, way worse since then.

[Smoove_B]

In 2020 - arguably one of the most...interesting years of American history, there was a ~67% voter turnout rate. Record breaking, but still far too many people that couldn't be bothered to vote.

And of those that did, ~75 million (record breaking) voted for more Trump. That *alone* should be setting off alarms. I don't care if its the popular vote, the idea that so many voting Americans wanted more of Trump is something we should all be concerned about, full stop.

[YellowKing]

And that's the million dollar question. Do they continue to vote for more Trumpism when there's no more Trump.

[Smoove_B]

I'm in the camp that says we can't wait and see. We should be doing everything we can to make sure the GOP's attempts to dismantle democracy in 2022 and 2024 fail. I'm assuming they're plotting non-stop to get themselves back in power and when they do, there will be retribution. Believing that, anything and everything that stops them from retaking power should be pursued.

[Holman]

And that's the million dollar question. Do they continue to vote for more Trumpism when there's no more Trump.

Yes, because Trumpism is all the GOP will be selling for at least the next couple of cycles.

It might be that no one does Trumpism as well as Trump, but that's not necessarily so. Trump may have run in order to make himself feel good, but his voters were voting to make *themselves* feel good.

[Kraken]

I'm in the camp that says we can't wait and see. We should be doing everything we can to make sure the GOP's attempts to dismantle democracy in 2022 and 2024 fail. I'm assuming they're plotting non-stop to get themselves back in power and when they do, there will be retribution. Believing that, anything and everything that stops them from retaking power should be pursued.

That's what it comes down to. They can't win fair elections, but they're very good at rigging the game.

I'm going to take an uncharacteristically optimistic stand here and say that we'll go into '22 election with a booming economy, restored foreign relations, and noticeable social progress. It's going to be hard for Republicans to whip up enthusiasm for the Bad Old Days. Nobody but his base can possibly look back fondly on the trump years. If the trumpiest candidates win their primaries, they will not retake Congress. Voters already rejected that once and I can't imagine a majority going "hmm, you know what? at least it was entertaining!"

This presupposed fair elections, which depends on passing the For the People Act, which depends on ending or changing the filibuster.

[malchior]

Speaking to rigging the game, keeping the House even with "fair elections" is highly unlikely. The GOP needs 5 seats. The first head wind against the Democrats is that the President's party generally loses seats in the mid-terms. In the 21st century the President's party only picked up seats in 2002. Otherwise, well north of 5 seats regularly changed hands and generally the leadership flipped between parties. But let's put that aside since it is admittedly a small sample.

More important is that a week from today on the 30th, the Census will announce the reapportionment of Congress for 2022. The GOP will then get to gerrymandering several states. They might get half of the 5 they need just in Florida using existing numbers. I expect the Democrats will gerrymander themselves as well since they have little choice. Even then, if the GOP gets more seats in a state like Florida then it alone may mean a net 3-4 seats. If you are looking down the field at the reality of what is in front of us, post-COVID economic booms or GOP craziness will run into a wall of reality that is the GOP picking their voters. Any chance at reforms slams shut right there. We'll be back to hostage negotiation budgets and political brinkmanship.

[YellowKing]

I know 74 million voted for Trump; I'm not convinced 74 million voted for Trumpism. I think there's a potentially large block of voters that voted for Trump out of fear of a liberal doomsday scenario, and could be persuaded back when that doomsday prophecy fails to appear. The Trump voters that turned out in 2020 were galvanized by 4 years of indoctrination by a screaming, charismatic cult leader. That won't be the case in 2024.

[Carpet_pissr]

An anecdotal microcosm, but still:

"Trumpism ascendant in Arizona again as GOP politicians court voters"

"In Arizona, Trumpism has the initiative even after Trump himself left the scene, and even though Republicans account for just 35% of state voters. While Trump enthusiasts make up a minority of Arizona voters, they dominate the party that still, barely, runs the state.
That’s why on Friday, there began an “audit” of Maricopa County’s votes that is intended to prove Donald Trump was somehow cheated."
----
"While Trumpism dominates the Republican Party, and therefore Arizona politics, it may also contain the seeds of its own destruction. Arizona GOP Chair Kelli Ward has tried to channel Trump, promoting the party’s leaders as Arizona’s “America First team.” She claims to have been reelected as chair in the Jan. 23 party meeting, but some Republicans — also Trump-voting GOP faithful — dispute her election. She’s trying to bulldoze their concerns with dismissal and bluster, the same way Trump would, but those tactics really only work for him.

The result is division — dissident Republicans have filed suit against her to force an audit or recount of her election."

https://tucson.com/news/local/tim-stell ... ab2af.html

[Defiant]

Didn't Trump win Arizona?

[malchior]

Some maybe good news on reapportionment. Apparently FL and TX aren't going to pick up as many seats as thought. They'll still gerrymander the heck out of the rest of the state but any little bit helps. I saw some chatter that NY missed not losing any seats in Congress by *89* people. Back of the envelope math is +2 GOP advantage in the House without a gerrymander. We'll see how it holds up in 2022.

[Daehawk]

Nooooo not suspicious at all.