malchior wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:14 am
That's fair. I was framing this (solely in my head) in the context of this year's event. There were indications that VP season had started early this year. And there was some noise they had narrowed it down significantly early in the process. They've been a little cagey on the whole thing so I think there has been some expectation that they were going to announce early.
I *do* think it was a mistake to announce a deadline if they weren't going to meet it - it was unnecessary (the only deadline that's important is announcing it before or at the convention).
El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:26 amUnless Biden takes a hallucinogen right before the announcement, it won't be Hillary.
In this timeline, anything is possible.
Michelle Obama?
My Michigan friends think Whitmer is a front-runner. AFAIK, nobody else does.
Two things are certain: Biden will choose the woman he thinks is the safest, least controversial choice, because that's his nature; and he needs to have personal chemistry of the sort that he had with Obama. That probably rules out Warren, and possibly Harris. I don't think there's any love lost between them.
Unfortunately, I can't name anyone who meets both of those criteria. Possibly Duckworth. I guess that's where I'll put my chips.
Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:06 pm
My Michigan friends think Whitmer is a front-runner. AFAIK, nobody else does.
That's probably because of reports that she flew into Delaware and met with him at some point in the last few days. Some people are taking that as a sign that he's picked her.
Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:06 pm
My Michigan friends think Whitmer is a front-runner. AFAIK, nobody else does.
That's probably because of reports that she flew into Delaware and met with him at some point in the last few days. Some people are taking that as a sign that he's picked her.
From what I've read about her, she would be a decent choice. She's shown herself to be tough and competent. Maybe too fresh and inexperienced, but I don't know her whole backstory. I consider her a dark horse, anyway.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:29 am
I dunno, they're both speaking on the final night with Biden. Isn't that when the VP would also make their speech?
Traditionally the VP nominee is the headliner on the second-to-last night. The presidential nominee (who doesn't appear at all prior) headlines the final night.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:29 am
I dunno, they're both speaking on the final night with Biden. Isn't that when the VP would also make their speech?
Traditionally the VP nominee is the headliner on the second-to-last night.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:41 am
I guess I'm thinking Susan Rice now. Though I'm not sure what to make of the convention scheduling stuff anyway.
I've been convinced its Rice since last week but I also don't know that some tentative schedule matters.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:41 am
I guess I'm thinking Susan Rice now. Though I'm not sure what to make of the convention scheduling stuff anyway.
I've been convinced its Rice since last week but I also don't know that some tentative schedule matters.
Yeah, I have no idea whether the schedule matters. That work could be on a totally independent track from the VP work, figuring that if one of the other night speakers winds up getting the VP nod, then they'll just adjust the schedule accordingly.
But, between those on the finalist list (and I'm skeptical that Karen Bass is really on the finalist list, but who knows) I think a major factor is just Biden's personal connection with each of them, which is a fundamentally unknowable X-factor from the outside.
El Guapo wrote:Ah. So Hillary Clinton is the pick, then.
Or Warren.....
Contrary to conventional wisdom that race matters for the VP pick, polls have shown Warren to be the most popular pick among black voters. And he pulls in the progressives as well. Sure there would be some blowback for not picking a person of color, but he's going to get blowback no matter who he picks - every frontrunner is flawed in some way.
El Guapo wrote:Ah. So Hillary Clinton is the pick, then.
Or Warren.....
Contrary to conventional wisdom that race matters for the VP pick, polls have shown Warren to be the most popular pick among black voters. And he pulls in the progressives as well. Sure there would be some blowback for not picking a person of color, but he's going to get blowback no matter who he picks - every frontrunner is flawed in some way.
I'd love for Warren to actually be the VP. But my main concerns with her are: (1) she gives me Clinton flashbacks in the sense that she's been trashed on Fox News for so long at this point that she triggers the conservative Id of low-information center-right voters who I think might otherwise consider Biden; and (2) her Senate seat.
Also there hasn't been any buzz about her as VP for a long time, so if the Biden camp is considering her, they are keeping it solidly under wraps.
I read yesterday that it was going to be Klobuchar.
I dislike her so much I'm not even going to bother looking up the correct spelling of her name. If that's the pick I'll still vote Biden but it will diminish my enthusiasm significantly.
Exodor wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:43 am
I read yesterday that it was going to be Klobuchar.
I dislike her so much I'm not even going to bother looking up the correct spelling of her name. If that's the pick I'll still vote Biden but it will diminish my enthusiasm significantly.
You sure that article was from yesterday? She was in the front running a couple months ago but her stock fell considerably since then, such that she publicly withdrew from consideration as VP and called for a woman of color to be picked. Which was clearly an attempt to: (1) save face personally while striking a progressive tone; and (2) tell the Biden team not to pick Warren.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:39 am
and (2) her Senate seat.
I've heard that since Democrats have a majority in the state Legislature, they could require the governor to pick a Senator from the same party as Warren.
For me, my only significant concern with Warren is her age - I don't think having two people in their 70s on the ticket is a great idea in a time of covid.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:39 am
and (2) her Senate seat.
I've heard that since Democrats have a majority in the state Legislature, they could require the governor to pick a Senator from the same party as Warren.
For me, my only significant concern with Warren is her age - I don't think having two people in their 70s on the ticket is a great idea in a time of covid.
I *think* the Democrats have a super-majority in the MA legislature. So I'm pretty sure that they could change the process from a governor's pick to a special election which a Democrat should win. I don't know whether requiring the pick to be a Democrat would work - what happens if Baker says it's unconstitutional and ignores it? What if he picks some "DINO"?
They have switched election rules before, though ironically that's part of how we wound up with Scott Brown. Democrats changed the rules in 2004 from a governor's pick to a special election because Kerry was the party nominee and Romney was the governor. And because they didn't change it back by 2009 - 2010, Scott Brown won the special election for Kennedy's seat even though a Democrat (Deval Patrick) was governor at the time.
Anyway, given other issues with Warren I'm not sure she's worth the risk / hassle.
Jaymann wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:22 pm
I like this pick. Harris will be a lightening rod for the lunatic fringe, leaving Biden relatively unscathed.
Do you think? Of the finalists (especially vs. Susan Rice and Karen Bass) she seems the least lightning-rod-ish to the base, beyond her being a black woman.
Anyway, Harris is a solid choice. Should do well, shouldn't cause any harm, people will likely see her as being capable of stepping into the presidency if needed.