The Viral Economy

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Jaymon
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Jaymon »

My daughter was strongly considering Germany for college. I don't mean like, sitting around the lunch table and suddenly realizing college is free in Germany. I mean she is fluent in German, has German citizenship, and family in Germany. But in the end, she is not quite ready yet for that adventure, and will go to school in the US for a couple of years at least.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Hmmm, my brother and his family live in Germany. Maybe I could send my kids over and maybe they would stay. At least in Germany they are less likely to end up as white nationalists.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

coopasonic wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:28 pm Hmmm, my brother and his family live in Germany. Maybe I could send my kids over and maybe they would stay. At least in Germany they are less likely to end up as white nationalists.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Zenn7 »

My kid went to nearest public state university straight outta high school. Managed to get about 1/2 the costs waived through scholarships or something.

Had to quit for medical leave in 1st semester of second year (I posted a little about that in another thread at the time, thank you again to the OO's who assisted a go-fund me). School said if you are able to return, the financial aid will still apply.

That was 2019. Next year, COVID - and not ready to come back yet. Fall 2021, goes back to same college. No financial aid. He was out too long (November 2019 to September 2021). After many appeals with several recommendations from staff, his appeal was denied. They ultimately gave a one time hardship grant of $2000.

Better than nothing, but at ~$23k/year (I think, might be higher), not nearly as helpful as $10k plus (this includes dorm room/food plan).

So not impressed with college financial aid, particularly at this school.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Could increased substance abuse during the pandemic be a factor contributing to the fall in labor-force participation? Estimates of the number of additional substance abusers during the pandemic presented here suggest that increased substance abuse accounts for between 9 and 26 percent of the decline in prime-age labor-force participation between February 2020 and June 2021.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w29932
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Drazzil »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:45 am
Could increased substance abuse during the pandemic be a factor contributing to the fall in labor-force participation? Estimates of the number of additional substance abusers during the pandemic presented here suggest that increased substance abuse accounts for between 9 and 26 percent of the decline in prime-age labor-force participation between February 2020 and June 2021.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w29932
Yes totally. Drug use is (life altering consequences aside) a great way to pass the time. Time not spent working and being bored gives people an excuse to do other things.

Also I believe the lack of participation in the job market at the lower end is firmly tied to people finding ways to survive not tied to some sweatshop job with little to nothing to recommend it then a pitiful shit wage. People move in with family or roommates or take care of peoples kids or do off the book, under the table stuff that is untaxed and untraceable.

I know a dude paid cash every day to sit at a computer and look like an office worker at a front operation for an illegal one. Another guy streams fortnight; a third former co worker is an infulencer. People really *REALLY* do not want to be a worker bee anymore.

Which is great for people who DO want to be worker bees like me. I got a raise from 16.50 to 18.00; and I have only been buzzing around my new hive for around 2 and a half months. It (aside from a few issues) has been a positive place to work. Much less stress then the old job.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

This afternoon I had to go into our 401k/IRA accounts to update some account info. Man, you do NOT want to look at your YTD funds performance. Collectively, we've lost about a year's salary since the first of the year. :cry:

I did a couple of piddly little exchanges from the worst- to best-performing funds in each account just to make myself feel like I was taking action, but I didn't panic, knowing that the biggest losers stand to become the biggest winners when the markets turn around again.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Madmarcus »

I'm carefully not looking at any balances or YTD performances. Which is tough because I have committed to leaving my current job as of June and retire. I bugged my wife to do a net worth calculation (she is the one who does the taxes so she had downloaded most of the information needed already) in March. That tells me we aren't in any real immediate financial danger which is enough to let me sleep even with the drops since then.

The moment of truth will be in the fall when we've done all of the immediate stuff on repatriation and have to start getting serious about either resuming our life in GA or moving.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 3:56 pm This afternoon I had to go into our 401k/IRA accounts to update some account info. Man, you do NOT want to look at your YTD funds performance. Collectively, we've lost about a year's salary since the first of the year. :cry:

I did a couple of piddly little exchanges from the worst- to best-performing funds in each account just to make myself feel like I was taking action, but I didn't panic, knowing that the biggest losers stand to become the biggest winners when the markets turn around again.
In all my stuff, everywhere, I'm currently down over 4 years living expenses and dropping since October highs. I'm more concerned about the gap to get me to me to my IRA/401k at this point. I really should have put more in cash and also have not been weak and put even more money in to the market last month, seeing all the cash I had built. Add inflation and it's a bit intimidating.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I put my parents , who are retired, into 80% cash in January. I went to 50% or so.

Not sure what I'm going to do but probably moving them into some dividend blue chips. Possibly DUK, the new T.

Myself probably similar but I'll pick up some BTC below $28K if it goes there.


Drazzil wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:33 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:45 am
Could increased substance abuse during the pandemic be a factor contributing to the fall in labor-force participation? Estimates of the number of additional substance abusers during the pandemic presented here suggest that increased substance abuse accounts for between 9 and 26 percent of the decline in prime-age labor-force participation between February 2020 and June 2021.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w29932
Yes totally. Drug use is (life altering consequences aside) a great way to pass the time. Time not spent working and being bored gives people an excuse to do other things.

Also I believe the lack of participation in the job market at the lower end is firmly tied to people finding ways to survive not tied to some sweatshop job with little to nothing to recommend it then a pitiful shit wage. People move in with family or roommates or take care of peoples kids or do off the book, under the table stuff that is untaxed and untraceable.

I know a dude paid cash every day to sit at a computer and look like an office worker at a front operation for an illegal one. Another guy streams fortnight; a third former co worker is an infulencer. People really *REALLY* do not want to be a worker bee anymore.

Which is great for people who DO want to be worker bees like me. I got a raise from 16.50 to 18.00; and I have only been buzzing around my new hive for around 2 and a half months. It (aside from a few issues) has been a positive place to work. Much less stress then the old job.
Yeah, I'm trying to figure out how this will shake out. Everyone I know in the traditional work force is working much harder but also making more money. While everyone else thinks they can live on streaming or influencing or gigs/"side hustles". There is going to be a new gap created. UBI seems inevitable but as the pandemic stimmy showed us, people are dumb with "free" money.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:19 amYeah, I'm trying to figure out how this will shake out. Everyone I know in the traditional work force is working much harder but also making more money. While everyone else thinks they can live on streaming or influencing or gigs/"side hustles". There is going to be a new gap created. UBI seems inevitable but as the pandemic stimmy showed us, people are dumb with "free" money.
UBI indeed feels inevitable but the road seems much longer than it was before the pandemic (stimmy results are a good example why). More importantly it seems incompatible with a future that seems a whole lot less technocratic at the moment.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Pyperkub »

Correctio. The UBI need is inevitable. Implementation ain't going to happen. We can't even get health care right...
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Drazzil wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:33 pm Drug use is (life altering consequences aside) a great way to pass the time. Time not spent working and being bored gives people an excuse to do other things.
i want to tangent off this - do we have a society where, if some people aren't working, they're bored and need to resort to drugs? is work such a primary importance in people's lives they can't conceive of any life purpose independent of that?

i believe people need some kind of purpose in their lives, and the 'work to live' mindset has sorta erased any alternatives from consideration.
Pyperkub wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 2:42 pm Correctio. The UBI need is inevitable. Implementation ain't going to happen. We can't even get health care right...
we are never getting UBI. we will instead get more homelessness, crime and... wait for it... drug use

too many people with no prospects, nothing to do and little to no imagination
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Re: The Viral Economy

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hitbyambulance wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:15 pm
Drazzil wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:33 pm Drug use is (life altering consequences aside) a great way to pass the time. Time not spent working and being bored gives people an excuse to do other things.
i want to tangent off this - do we have a society where, if some people aren't working, they're bored and need to resort to drugs? is work such a primary importance in people's lives they can't conceive of any life purpose independent of that?
We are a society that defines people by their job. We define success by their job (and how much money they make.) We want our kids to be happy via a job. The purpose of education isn't to improve the person, it is to get ready for a job. When we meet a new person, one of the first questions is "What do you do?" And if a person doesn't work? Worthless. Lazy. Garbage. They need to be working. (Trust me - I've been on disability for twenty years, and I got so tired of being judged for not working that I started telling people I was a 'homemaker' - telling beer guzzling alpha males in Indiana you're a male homemaker gets you judged less than not being able to work.) We place so much importance on work that it dwarfs any other factor in how we judge a person.

So, no - Americans often can't conceive of any purpose other than work. It's all they've heard is their purpose from the day they were old enough to understand what was being said.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Kraken wrote:I did a couple of piddly little exchanges from the worst- to best-performing funds in each account just to make myself feel like I was taking action, but I didn't panic, knowing that the biggest losers stand to become the biggest winners when the markets turn around again.
That’s the opposite of what you were supposed to do!

During times like these, you sell the funds that are up (Sell High), and buy the funds that are down (Buy Low).

You sold the funds that are down (Sold Low) and bought the funds that are up (Bought High).

Buy the stuff that’s on sale!!
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: The Viral Economy

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hitbyambulance wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:15 pm
Drazzil wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:33 pm Drug use is (life altering consequences aside) a great way to pass the time. Time not spent working and being bored gives people an excuse to do other things.
i want to tangent off this - do we have a society where, if some people aren't working, they're bored and need to resort to drugs? is work such a primary importance in people's lives they can't conceive of any life purpose independent of that?

i believe people need some kind of purpose in their lives, and the 'work to live' mindset has sorta erased any alternatives from consideration.

I don't know. The things I do, and take pleasure in, when I'm bored are often other people's jobs. I'll organize or repair stuff around the house. I'll deep clean firearms or archive photos. Like I enjoy doing this stuff.

I don't do "drugs". I drink a fair amount but not out of boredom.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

RunningMn9 wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 3:14 pm
Kraken wrote:I did a couple of piddly little exchanges from the worst- to best-performing funds in each account just to make myself feel like I was taking action, but I didn't panic, knowing that the biggest losers stand to become the biggest winners when the markets turn around again.
That’s the opposite of what you were supposed to do!

During times like these, you sell the funds that are up (Sell High), and buy the funds that are down (Buy Low).

You sold the funds that are down (Sold Low) and bought the funds that are up (Bought High).

Buy the stuff that’s on sale!!
I didn't move very much money, and most of that went into cash.

In semi-related news, Capital One no longer wants my Roth and has sold it to the First Bank of Whatever. I locked my Roth into boring 3% CDs a few years ago because that's my safe money -- it doesn't earn much but it never goes down. The new bank doesn't have CDs. I don't want to invest my safe money in the stock market.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Inflation pressure moderates somewhat but supply imbalances and high energy price inputs still in the mix and fundamental conditions are just bad right now.
Inflation moderated on an annual basis for the first time in months in April, though the 8.3 percent annual Consumer Price Index increase remained uncomfortably rapid and a closely watched index that subtracts volatile food and fuel costs accelerated.

Inflation, which had climbed by 8.5 percent in the year through March, is beginning to moderate on an annual basis partly because gas prices cooled last month and partly because of a statistical quirk. Increases are now being measured against high price readings from last spring, when inflation started to take off, instead of depressed 2020 levels. The higher base makes annual increases look less severe.
BTW as an aside I don't see how the above is a statistical 'quirk'. That is how it is measured. In fact, they do something weird/misleading here. They point out the higher base makes it look less severe compared to a year when it had *crashed*. But don't seem to account accurately for the fact that prices crashed in 2020. That's pretty sloppy data reporting.

In any case, I expect this situation to continue unfortunately and expect a hard landing. The Fed was late to tighten but in the end it's all they can do. This will at some point be most likely understood as a massive supply side shock with high energy prices and China's economic output disrupted. We built far too fragile supply chains. We are now still seeing critical shortages of various goods especially those with ties to Shanghai. For example, there are persistent chemical manufacturing inputs that have impacted the cosmetics industry, GE only produced a critical IV contrast dye in Shanghai and hospitals are struggling to adapt, widespread microchip shortages continue, pet food in the US was largely produced in China, baby formula relies on certain overseas inputs in short supply, and many other products with broken supply chains. Price pressures will be maintained until either demand collapses (bad!) or supply improves (better!).
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Al Jazeera
India has banned exports of wheat effective immediately, citing a risk to food security, partly due to the war in Ukraine and as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high.

Although not one of the world’s top wheat exporters, India’s ban could drive global prices to new peaks given already tight supply, hitting poor consumers in Asia and Africa particularly hard.

Agriculture ministers from the G7 industrialised nations immediately condemned India’s decision on Saturday.
...
Government officials in New Delhi said on Saturday that India would still allow exports backed by already issued letters of credit and to countries that request supplies “to meet their food security needs”.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:06 pm Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
Meh, just drink some açaí juice.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Just-in-time inventory is great when there's no supply disruption.
Receiving deliveries in the smallest possible quantities—sometimes multiple times per day—virtually eliminates raw material inventories.
:laughing-rollingyellow:
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:16 pm Just-in-time inventory is great when there's no supply disruption.
Receiving deliveries in the smallest possible quantities—sometimes multiple times per day—virtually eliminates raw material inventories.
:laughing-rollingyellow:
Not to even mention delivery congestion.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Take a Sudafed.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

GE is moving some production to Ireland now but it was 100% China. One company, one source.

It's almost like having one single huge egg basket isn't a great idea.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:09 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:06 pm Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
Meh, just drink some açaí juice.
Actually, baby formula is a great substitute.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:09 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:06 pm Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
Meh, just drink some açaí juice.
Actually, baby formula is a great substitute.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24573534/
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:33 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:28 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:09 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:06 pm Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
Meh, just drink some açaí juice.
Actually, baby formula is a great substitute.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24573534/
Don't think it would work for CT scans. Just certain MRIs. X-ray vs radio waves. But very interesting
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:06 pm Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
Super great news! Think they'll have enough in store for my CT with contrast scheduled for a week from tomorrow? Can I buy some on the black market and bring my own supply?
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Re: The Viral Economy

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ImLawBoy wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:39 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:06 pm Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
Super great news! Think they'll have enough in store for my CT with contrast scheduled for a week from tomorrow? Can I buy some on the black market and bring my own supply?
There is >0 supply so if you need a CT w/contrast you'll probably get it. But they're being more strict than usual about what actually requires contrast.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Drazzil »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 12:11 am
hitbyambulance wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:15 pm
Drazzil wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:33 pm Drug use is (life altering consequences aside) a great way to pass the time. Time not spent working and being bored gives people an excuse to do other things.
i want to tangent off this - do we have a society where, if some people aren't working, they're bored and need to resort to drugs? is work such a primary importance in people's lives they can't conceive of any life purpose independent of that?

i believe people need some kind of purpose in their lives, and the 'work to live' mindset has sorta erased any alternatives from consideration.

I don't know. The things I do, and take pleasure in, when I'm bored are often other people's jobs. I'll organize or repair stuff around the house. I'll deep clean firearms or archive photos. Like I enjoy doing this stuff.

I don't do "drugs". I drink a fair amount but not out of boredom.
People without money often find their avenues of entertainment sharply limited IMO.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Blackhawk »

I've spent my life poor. I was homeless from time to time growing up. I've lived off of nothing but food pantry handouts a few times. Things are better now, but I still remember being poor enough that spending money on entertainment was a non-option. And yet I was never unhappy for lack of options. Far cheaper options than drugs.

I can't begin to tell you how many thousands of hours of entertainment I got for free from public libraries. And even used books have always been cheaper than drugs.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:56 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:39 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:06 pm Seeing severe shortages of CT contrast fluids due to China shutdown. Hope no one needs a CT with contrast before July 2022.
Super great news! Think they'll have enough in store for my CT with contrast scheduled for a week from tomorrow? Can I buy some on the black market and bring my own supply?
There is >0 supply so if you need a CT w/contrast you'll probably get it. But they're being more strict than usual about what actually requires contrast.
So they gave old school barium instead of iodine to drink due to the iodine shortage. Whatever they used for the IV contrast felt like the same they used the last time (i.e., it gives you a weird heat feeling from the inside of your body).
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Delta will be strategically decreasing flights for the summer:
"More than any time in our history, the various factors currently impacting our operation -- weather and air traffic control, vendor staffing, increased Covid case rates contributing to higher-than-planned unscheduled absences in some work groups -- are resulting in an operation that isn't consistently up to the standards Delta has set for the industry in recent years," said Allison Ausband, chief customer experience officer, in a statement.
Oh wow. COVID is still causing work disruptions for you, making it difficult to know when you'll have enough staff? I wonder if there was anything that could have helped that? Maybe something we could have required? I'm sure it will come to me.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Kraken
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

Even as prices for everything keep going up and up, the availability of goods and quality of services keep going down, and people are increasingly unhappy with both sides of the transactions. It's going to take a recession to set this right.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Alefroth »

How will a recession correct it?
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

Wring out the most marginal workers, cut demand for goods and services, kill off marginal businesses, and increase competition among the survivors.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

In news that will surprise no one, supply chain issues continue:
"Bottom line, we find that supply chain pressures have proved to be more persistent, and apparently deep rooted, than we had expected even a few months ago," strategists led by Global Chief Economist of Citi Research Nathan Sheets wrote in a comprehensive note. "And the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to be further amplifying the stresses. Given these realities, any hopes of near-term improvement in supply chain conditions have been shattered. The challenges in the months ahead look to be as acute as at any time over the past two years."
So what should we focus on?
"To relieve the stress in global trade, we ultimately need to see an improvement in the pandemic," Citi stated. "Some specific supply chain issues are beginning to unwind but there are still a number of lingering unknowns."

The status of the pandemic is key, Citi explained, because the pandemic demolished the idea that global supply chains were fully optimized.
I'm so confused. I've been repeatedly assured it's over. Do you mean the market is somehow reacting to a global disruption that is in fact, still ongoing? Amazing.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Target announced today that they have too much inventory right now and are having to fire sale it but at the same time may have holiday supply issues. Or may have excess inventory again.

It's because consumers are fickle trend followers and retailers chase the trend
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

On another tangent, energy is a problem. The Clean Energy promise is years away at beat. You don't manufacture clean energy, as the Admin seemed to say today, you manufacture turbines, photo cells, dams, nuclear plants, storage devices, etc. You need to allocate a lot of land, create transmission infrastructure, and maintain it all.

In the mean time, energy is a key input for just about everything. Food. Water. Healthcare. It's not just about gas in cars. We'll starve a million people to death in the 3rd world to feel good about our electric cars and low impact Amazon boxes and no-commute work-life balance.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

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