Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[hitbyambulance]

the mighty and all-conquering power of denial - bank on it

[Max Peck]

And for posterity. It's Canada data, but still applies here in 'merica.

As a Canadian, I vouch for the fact that this is pretty much how it has played out.

[LawBeefaroni]

Maybe I am just being cynical, but it seems to me, the folks who have time to attend conferences are not the same folks as those who are on the front line in the ER. Just saying.

Hospitalizations and COVID ER admissions are down. Even in current waves it's nowhere near where it was in the worst of 2020. They would have had time and probably optimism.

[coopasonic]

Tickets are going on sale for the big board game convention in town in November. Every time I think about going, I think "What would Smoove say?" and don't go. I *really* miss my #1 gaming venue. Of course that is happening two months AFTER I am supposed to be back in the office a couple days a week so I should be a COVID "veteran" by then!

[Smoove_B]

Tickets are going on sale for the big board game convention in town in November. Every time I think about going, I think "What would Smoove say?" and don't go. I *really* miss my #1 gaming venue. Of course that is happening two months AFTER I am supposed to be back in the office a couple days a week so I should be a COVID "veteran" by then!

Did you see the thread on BGG - "I got COVID at Origins 2022" yet?

[Smoove_B]

Killing. Me.

My approach has brought down COVID deaths by 90%.

It’s opened schools and businesses that were shuttered.

And it’s created the greatest jobs recovery in American history. 8.7 million new jobs in just 16 months – an all-time record.

[Zaxxon]

[Isgrimnur]

At the end of the day, he's still a career politician.

[LordMortis]

Tickets are going on sale for the big board game convention in town in November. Every time I think about going, I think "What would Smoove say?" and don't go. I *really* miss my #1 gaming venue. Of course that is happening two months AFTER I am supposed to be back in the office a couple days a week so I should be a COVID "veteran" by then!

I'm not Smoove level of hermit but 2.25 years is getting a bit long. I'm ready to get out. The problem is every time I prep myself to test the waters everyone else already taking it to the next to wave. I was sooo close in April and now I'm hoping here for late June/July.

[LawBeefaroni]

Killing. Me.

My approach has brought down COVID deaths by 90%.

It’s opened schools and businesses that were shuttered.

And it’s created the greatest jobs recovery in American history. 8.7 million new jobs in just 16 months – an all-time record.

Oh, fer chrissake.

[Unagi]

He should just talk about how he’s willing to transfer power to whomever is elected next.

That’s all he needs to set himself above the competition.

That was cringe worthy. Frankly that was the most Trump like moment he’s had, IMO.

I’m surprised he didn’t just say., ‘Thanks to Our approach’ … ‘we have…’. That’s normally the messaging I’m more prepared to stomach.


Also, this isn’t the right time to boast about a win.


Hey though, perhaps he is trying to cater to the voters that just want to be told ‘sweet nothings’ and ‘at least tell me what I want to hear’. There are those people out there.

[LordMortis]

He should just talk about how he’s willing to transfer power to whomever is elected next.

That’s all he needs to set himself above the competition.

Also, this isn’t the right time to boast about a win.

Both of these are true.

I will say, initially, Biden's COVID response was exactly what we needed and it was something to hang his hat on. Since initially? Well, it could have been a worse, I guess. The only pleasant surprise since then has been his standing up Putin's Russia. While it's not strictly his win, Ukraine's continued fight is something his predecessor would have worked against and I'm thankful for Biden's military and global seat, specifically, for that.

[LawBeefaroni]

I mean it's actually counterproductive. Boasting about job numbers when we're about to face a cascade of layoffs? Timing couldn't be worse.

[YellowKing]

It's just like the world of IT. Nobody cares that you put out a million little fires every day that prevented catastrophe. They only care about the fires you haven't addressed yet. I think Biden's done some amazing work to pre-empt problems that could have spiraled out of control, but it's not going to matter in the face of inflation and gas prices.

[Smoove_B]

Study was published yesterday regarding immunity and I just found an article that translates into something a bit easier to digest:

First, addressing "I trust my immunity" (i.e. the folks that won't vaccinate):

A common assumption of the COVID-19 pandemic has been that through being infected with the virus you gain a natural immune boost, leaving you better able to recognise the variant you’ve encountered and fend off infection in the future.

However, the latest analysis finds that Omicron provides a poor natural boost of COVID-19 immunity against re-infection with Omicron itself even in people who are triple-vaccinated.

For the breakthrough infections, as it relates to vaccination status and prior exposure:

In those who were triple vaccinated and had no prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, Omicron infection provided an immune boost against previous variants (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and the original ancestral strain), but less so against Omicron itself. Those infected during the first wave of the pandemic and then again later with Omicron lacked any boosting.

This is the part that's really interesting:

Previous work by the team found that patterns of immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are ‘imprinted’ on the immune system by infection history. Your imprint is determined by the number of vaccine doses you have received and the variant that you come in to contact with, resulting in different immunity across different individuals in the population.

...

They found that people with no prior SARS-CoV-2 infection who then had Omicron showed enhanced cross-reactive immunity to previous variants – with enhanced B and T cell immunity against Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta – but they showed a reduced boosting against the Omicron spike protein itself.

Healthcare workers with prior Alpha infection showed a less sustained antibody response against Omicron. People infected during the first wave of the pandemic and then again with Omicron lacked any immune boosting, in an effect the researchers termed ‘hybrid immune damping’.

According to the researchers, the impact of immune imprinting means that after infection with Omicron people who had previously been infected during the first wave are not immune boosted against a subsequent infection with the variant, and potentially its subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.

In short, the immunity we all have truly is individual - to the degree that it's a mix of the the number of vaccines you've received *and* when (and if) you've had exposure to the wild virus (and which version).

In closing:

Dr Joseph Gibbons, from Queen Mary University of London and study author, added: “The link between a person’s infection history and their response to the vaccine is now clear. Previous infection with different variants impacts both the potency and durability of your immune responses. The effectiveness of current vaccination strategies will depend not only on which variants become dominant in the future, but also on how previous waves of infection have impacted our immunity.”

“We show that ‘hybrid immune damping’ can occur. For example, infection with the ancestral virus strain impairs the boosting effect of a subsequent Omicron infection. The broad diversity of infection history in our population means that further exposure to the current vaccine has different implications for different people.”

tl;dr - we are so boned

[stimpy]

I think people here need to start realizing that the marathon is over.
Hand out the participation ribbons and call it a day.

[coopasonic]

I think people here need to start realizing that the marathon is over.
Hand out the participation ribbons and call it a day.

It turns out the participation ribbons were handed out in the form of colored bracelets with your name, date of birth, blood type and allergies noted.

Note: I haven't worn a hospital bracelet in a few years and don't know that I really examined it when I was so I don't really recall what was on there.

[Smoove_B]

I'm not the only one noticing that many doctors, doctor's offices and medical practices are now on social media bragging (advertising?) that they're no longer wearing masks in a clinical setting.

And this is supposed to make me feel better about the medical community?

[Zaxxon]

And this is supposed to make me feel better about the medical community?

I believe it's simply confirmation that the 'we're done' crowd is asymptotically approaching 'everyone but Smoove.'

[Smoove_B]

I believe it's simply confirmation that the 'we're done' crowd is asymptotically approaching 'everyone but Smoove.'

[malchior]

I'm not the only one noticing that many doctors, doctor's offices and medical practices are now on social media bragging (advertising?) that they're no longer wearing masks in a clinical setting.

And this is supposed to make me feel better about the medical community?

I was just at my dentist and he is still running COVID screening and masking. I won't be surprised when that stops though. I was just told my scrimmage tonight is masks optional now because Philly is Medium Community spread. I think I'll stick with the mask and electronic whistle just yet. Mostly because I think it's not cool to blow whistles at people if I happen to be asymptomatic.

[Smoove_B]

I think I'll stick with the mask and electronic whistle just yet. Mostly because I think it's not cool to blow whistles at people if I happen to be asymptomatic.

Indoors + exercise + yelling/shouting = mask.

Also, apparently Dr. Fauci has tested positive. I look forward to the hot takes.

[Max Peck]

The clinic where my doctor works is still doing telephone appointments where possible -- he was working from home when I talked to him on yesterday -- and are screening, limiting access (just the patient and 1 caregiver where applicable) and requiring masks for in-person appointments.

When I went to the pharmacy this morning, all the staff were masked, but it was a mix for customers. I didn't see enough people to get a feel of the relative proportions, but it wasn't just me that was geared up.

[ImLawBoy]

I've been doing appointments with my oncologist via phone call lately. I'm due to have a blood draw and see the doctor in 4 months, and when the scheduler called me to set it up, he asked if I wanted to continue doing remote. I told him that I didn't think I'd do a very good job of drawing my own blood, so I should probably come into the office.

FWIW, medical stuff here in my area still is mask required (at least, everywhere I've been - and I go to a lot of medical places!).

[LawBeefaroni]

I think masking at healthcare facilities/offices is still mandated by Illinois. We're still 100% masking in all our buildings.

One of our charity galas is this weekend though. In-person. I'll do whatever the ID docs are doing I guess.

[msteelers]

This might be the most infuriating thing Desantjs has ever done.

Every state has placed an order with the federal government to ensure coronavirus vaccines for young children are delivered as soon as regulators authorize their use — except for one. Florida missed a Tuesday deadline to request delivery of COVID-19 pediatric vaccines for children under 5, guaranteeing a delay in access for parents across the state, according to two U.S. government sources.

[Smoove_B]

Holy crap, I hadn't seen that. Pure evil.

[Smoove_B]

The number of Americans with disabilities is up by about 2 million since before the pandemic. Wonder why that is?

It's a mystery! A clue, perhaps?

The disability increase is sharpest for those who have kept working

I guess we'll never know.

The disability increase has been driven mostly by people saying they're having "serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions." And, yeah, it's tough to concentrate these days. But that also sounds like it could be Long Covid

I'm sure there's also a significant number of people with PTSD and whatever comes from the stress of being told to ignore everything going on and just work.

[LawBeefaroni]

Part of it has to be the nature of work nowadays too. I'm in the office but my day is still a series of online meetings, texts, emails and no end of other little interruptions. I can't reliably commit more than 30 minutes to any given job or task. The only uninterrupted time I have is if I can get to the gym over lunch. That's where I do the majority of my deep thinking.

Maybe a perfect storm of new work and long COVID and everything else.

[Smoove_B]

Speaking of work, CDC director is providing an update now in the Senate on the current status. She just indicated the in the U.S. there's ~80K health worker deficit right now. That is...not great. Of course, completely ignoring public health worker issues, but for medical staff? Not good.

[LawBeefaroni]

Speaking of work, CDC director is providing an update now in the Senate on the current status. She just indicated the in the U.S. there's ~80K health worker deficit right now. That is...not great. Of course, completely ignoring public health worker issues, but for medical staff? Not good.

And those fewer clinical workers have fewer support staff. It's getting Interesting. Anyone try to get an ortho or gastro appointment lately?


Physician shortage.

A 2021 report from the Association of American Medical Colleges estimated a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034 in the United States, with shortfalls in both primary and specialty care.

Among non-primary care specialty physicians, the report estimated a shortage between 15,800 and 30,200 for surgical specialties, including general surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, and orthopedic surgery.

Ortho specifically:

Orthopedic surgeon shortage: By 2025, the Health Resources and Services Administration predicted the U.S. will be short 5,080 orthopedic surgeons, according to a Merritt Hawkins report. Around 60 percent of orthopedic surgeons were 55 years or older in 2018, potentially preparing for retirement in the next 15 years.

[malchior]

Don't fret. Luckily access to health care will still be available to those with the means to pay top dollar and that'll encourage supply in 5-10 years. The market will save us, right?

[LawBeefaroni]

Orthopedic surgeon or YouTuber. 12 years of training or van-life. Let's see what the kids choose.

[Smoove_B]

She also testified that hospital reporting data is lagging - too many hospital systems not providing data to the CDC in a timely manner. Not sure if that's also a staffing issue or they have also just adopted the blasé attitude the CDC apparently has regarding Covid. It's really weird that all of the attention is on the medical infrastructure, but then again maybe not. As usual, the concern is on the people dealing with the mess we've made (and their ability to continue to do so, nonstop), not the people trying to stop the mess from happening or getting worse.

[Kraken]

Anyone try to get an ortho or gastro appointment lately?

I'm seeing a gastro a week from Monday. They're booking about a month out for routine matters.

[Defiant]

The Omicron variant of coronavirus is less likely to cause long COVID than previous variants, according to the first peer-reviewed study of its kind from the United Kingdom.

Researchers at King's College London, using data from the ZOE COVID Symptom study app, found the odds of developing long COVID after infection were 20% to 50% lower during the Omicron wave in the UK compared to Delta. The figure varied depending on the patient's age and the timing of their last vaccination.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/ar ... d-uk-study

[msteelers]

Watching a replay of the Jan 6th hearing and reading tweets like this are not a great way to spend my evening.

[Smoove_B]

The Ghost of Christmas future for the United States is likely unfolding in the U.K. right now:

BREAKING: Around 1.4m people in the UK had coronavirus last week according to the latest ONS survey. That’s up 43% from around 930,000 the week before. ONS says it’s likely caused by the more contagious BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants.

[Unagi]

I’m pretty sure most citizens don’t gives a rat’s ass about BA.4 and BA.5 at this point.

It’s impossible to ‘care alone’ as I can (and do) continue to mask up for modest protection, I don’t really feel protected when everyone is just dropping all concern. This was never going to be an individual win, and its looking like other people have different ideas from me (and you) what a win even is.

Sucks.

[Smoove_B]

Watching a replay of the Jan 6th hearing and reading tweets like this are not a great way to spend my evening.

Hopefully this news helps:

Florida parents: although late, the Florida Dep. of Health has now started ordering COVID vacc. for 6mo to 5 yr old children. I’ve confirmed that they are now accepting orders from providers in state, meaning hospitals and pediatrician offices can access.