Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Freedom! :roll:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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My assistant got her first shot on Tuesday. She took the train in Wednesday morning. We did a Target run together in my car for necessities on Thursday. She took a PTO day and went shopping at Ikea on Friday.

She’s been very careful. Now she’s feeling invulnerable and impatient. This is not going to end well.

Even sensible people get selfish. Since 2000, Americans have shown they’re not sensible.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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11-year-old girl discovers both parents dead from COVID: report
"She tested positive, but they sent her home and then her husband meanwhile was home with a positive test for COVID, so they both were quarantined downstairs in their bedroom in their basement," he explained. "To lose both parents at one time you know for an 11-year-old, it's really tragic."

The St. Louis County girl was an only child.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

We're seeing a fairly significant uptick in COVID+. No corresponding increase in critical care COVID though.

Bars and restaurants reopened for indoor service a week or two ago... :think:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, that's the reporting from over the weekend - cases in parts of the US (the NE in particular) are ticking up again - and that's ahead of all the pending relaxation of gathering limits and mask requirements about to happen. We're still close to peak summer levels of circulating COVID and getting ready to loosen restrictions. We're going to blow this in the 4th quarter, mark my words.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pmWe're going to blow this in the 4th quarter, mark my words.
I am relieved to hear that we're entering the 4th quarter.

But also, yes--we're fucked.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

We're in the final 4th quarter of the first season. We still need to get through the semi-finals and then the playoffs. :D

In better news, the CDC guidelines that were originally to be released last Thursday have been published today instead:
The latest science, Walensky said, suggests that fully vaccinated people can congregate indoors with other fully vaccinated people, without wearing face coverings or practicing physical distancing, the agency said. What's more, fully vaccinated people may gather with a small group, such as another household, even if that household has not been vaccinated.

"For example," the CDC wrote in a statement, "fully vaccinated grandparents can visit indoors with their unvaccinated healthy daughter and her healthy children without wearing masks or physical distancing, provided none of the unvaccinated family members are at risk of severe COVID-19." Those at high risk include people over age 65, or those with underlying health problems such as heart disease or cancer.

For everyone else, "this is very welcome guidance," said Dr. Richard Besser, president of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and a former acting director of the CDC. "This opens the door for grandparents to meet with their children and grandchildren without masks, indoors, for a nice group hug."
A reminder:
The new guidelines do not, however, suggest that fully vaccinated people can go back to life as it was in 2019.

In public or around others who are vulnerable to Covid-19 complications, mitigation measures should remain status quo, the CDC said. Keep up with hand washing. Wear masks in public places, and continue to adhere to physical distancing guidelines. Avoid crowded areas. Seek out Covid-19 testing if symptoms develop.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stimpy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:45 pm I thought Biden had a plan to get distribution more organized and accessible?
It's a clusterfuck of disorganization. Where's the direction from our Leader?
All I've heard him crow about was ramping up production.
BFD if the system to actually....ya know....get the shot is so f-ed up.
Hard to believe he's been in office for a couple of months, had many more months to sit back and get a plan together before taking office, and the system is as broke as ever.
Addressing this in the right forum - my state has received double the amount of doses it was receiving under the previous administration (with the exception of one spike where Trump decided who needs a stockpile??) - see this cool site. That is what the federal government can do. It can't fix the states distributing them. Well, it can cajole and threaten and maybe set up some National Guard posts, but that's about it and it would do little to fix the big problems.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I can't keep track of these threads! Reposted here:

Ok, I'll take this as it hits me right in the profession.
stimpy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:45 am
I thought Biden had a plan to get distribution more organized and accessible?
He does. And federal distribution has increased by some insane % since January 21st. The accessibility element is trickier for reasons I'll cover below, but in short it was also covered by increasing funding to state and local health agencies.
It's a clusterfuck of disorganization. Where's the direction from our Leader?
I'm not sure I follow this one entirely. I don't know if you're confusing state and local response with federal response.
All I've heard him crow about was ramping up production.
We're set to deliver 100 million doses in (checks calendar) 47 days. That's significantly better than the original promise of 100 million doses in 100 days.
BFD if the system to actually....ya know....get the shot is so f-ed up.
Right - that's definitely an issue. I've mentioned repeatedly over the last year (and a few times before) that the state of public health in the United States is terrible. It's a field that's been slowly starved for the last 2+ decades. Funding cuts, brain drain, resource depletion - it's a trend happening everywhere. What you're seeing (in part) is what happens when you dismantle and underfund and entire profession for decades and then expect them to suddenly spring to life and deal with a once-in-a-century public health emergency; it's not possible.

The overwhelming majority of problems *right now* are at a state and local level in distribution. Public health is (and always has been) a state issue. What you're seeing in your state is different than mine is different than Texas. There's no uniform delivery of service and then add in the political take on COVID-19 and you have a complete nightmare.

Biden has released money to state and local agencies to hire more people, but that's happening *right now*. Why did it take so long? As Congress.
Hard to believe he's been in office for a couple of months, had many more months to sit back and get a plan together before taking office, and the system is as broke as ever.
I mean...that's one take, sure.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I just think at this point production is not the issue and the Federal government should see that and step in to get it to us citizens in a more orderly and cohesive way.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stimpy »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:05 pm I can't keep track of these threads! Reposted here:

Ok, I'll take this as it hits me right in the profession.
stimpy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:45 am
I thought Biden had a plan to get distribution more organized and accessible?
He does. And federal distribution has increased by some insane % since January 21st. The accessibility element is trickier for reasons I'll cover below, but in short it was also covered by increasing funding to state and local health agencies.
It's a clusterfuck of disorganization. Where's the direction from our Leader?
I'm not sure I follow this one entirely. I don't know if you're confusing state and local response with federal response.
All I've heard him crow about was ramping up production.
We're set to deliver 100 million doses in (checks calendar) 47 days. That's significantly better than the original promise of 100 million doses in 100 days.
BFD if the system to actually....ya know....get the shot is so f-ed up.
Right - that's definitely an issue. I've mentioned repeatedly over the last year (and a few times before) that the state of public health in the United States is terrible. It's a field that's been slowly starved for the last 2+ decades. Funding cuts, brain drain, resource depletion - it's a trend happening everywhere. What you're seeing (in part) is what happens when you dismantle and underfund and entire profession for decades and then expect them to suddenly spring to life and deal with a once-in-a-century public health emergency; it's not possible.

The overwhelming majority of problems *right now* are at a state and local level in distribution. Public health is (and always has been) a state issue. What you're seeing in your state is different than mine is different than Texas. There's no uniform delivery of service and then add in the political take on COVID-19 and you have a complete nightmare.

Biden has released money to state and local agencies to hire more people, but that's happening *right now*. Why did it take so long? As Congress.
Hard to believe he's been in office for a couple of months, had many more months to sit back and get a plan together before taking office, and the system is as broke as ever.
I mean...that's one take, sure.
Thank you for your input.
I appreciate you are able to look past any preconceived notions about my intentions and actually address the point I was trying to make.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:02 pm
stimpy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:45 pm I thought Biden had a plan to get distribution more organized and accessible?
It's a clusterfuck of disorganization. Where's the direction from our Leader?
All I've heard him crow about was ramping up production.
BFD if the system to actually....ya know....get the shot is so f-ed up.
Hard to believe he's been in office for a couple of months, had many more months to sit back and get a plan together before taking office, and the system is as broke as ever.
Addressing this in the right forum - my state has received double the amount of doses it was receiving under the previous administration (with the exception of one spike where Trump decided who needs a stockpile??) - see this cool site. That is what the federal government can do. It can't fix the states distributing them. Well, it can cajole and threaten and maybe set up some National Guard posts, but that's about it and it would do little to fix the big problems.
Also, now that we're in the right place:
-Biden hasn't been in office for a couple of months (12 more days for that), any plan created 'many more months' before taking office wouldn't begin to take effect until after in office, the system is definitely not as broke as ever, etc.
-Direction from our 'Leader' has been consistent and welcome.
-The large bill likely to hit Biden's desk later this week is where the actual cashola cola and other assistance to help organize distribution by States largely comes from.
-Characterizing ramping production (something which this administration has clearly and objectively done--eg Merck deal) as crowing is a... questionable sign of one's objectivity or lack thereof.

The Federal government doesn't turn on a dime, especially when starting with such a bonkers prior admin, nor is it capable of fixing all ills down to the local level. Certainly not in six weeks.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

stimpy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:05 pm I just think at this point production is not the issue and the Federal government should see that and step in to get it to us citizens in a more orderly and cohesive way.
Right - but this goes back to public health being a state issue - always has been. There is no mechanism for the federal government to deploy assets to 50 states and administer 100 million doses to the American people.

The federal government is doing now what it should have been doing all along. The problem is that states have starved their local public health agencies for decades and they are wholly and completely unable to deal with pandemic response - and that's coming from someone living in a state where the political structures support public health (legally, not financially). If I was in a state that had not only been financially starving public health and then simultaneously trying to dismantle our public health powers/authority? Good night moon.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

To augment the above, they've been at this only a little while. They were able to fix the supply production problems in a few weeks. Now they can go to work with states that aren't run by assholes to help them with logistics up to the point that they can as llimited as it might be as SmooveB mentioned. They won't be able to fix intractable IT problems (as an example) but they can actively work to make the distribution problems better. And I expect they will. This all puts in sharp relief the absolute negligence from Trump as well.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

stimpy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:05 pm I just think at this point production is not the issue and the Federal government should see that and step in to get it to us citizens in a more orderly and cohesive way.
The federal government spent nearly a year letting states fend for themselves. Over that time, some states managed cobble together delivery systems. What the fed can't do now is come in and completely undermine existing systems, which include tracking and monitoring. The feds are now trying to augment with a national delivery system.

The current administration, which I have no particular love for, came in in the middle of a chaotic clusterfuck with no benefit of an orderly transition. They have opted not to wipe the slate clean but to try to build on small successes the states managed to make in spite of the previous administration while creating a national system that should have been created 10 months ago.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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A big part of my frustration comes from personal experience of trying to get an appointment for my 91 year old Mother.
She has a great attitude about the whole thing and can take or leave getting the shot.
Of course, us kids are trying to take the frustration and burden off of her plate by trying to schedule an appointment somewhere, anywhere, to get her in.
We keep think we're making progress only to consistently be notified that vaccines are not available.

And for the record, I'd be screaming about this no matter who was in office.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stimpy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:20 pm A big part of my frustration comes from personal experience of trying to get an appointment for my 91 year old Mother.
She has a great attitude about the whole thing and can take or leave getting the shot.
Of course, us kids are trying to take the frustration and burden off of her plate by trying to schedule an appointment somewhere, anywhere, to get her in.
We keep think we're making progress only to consistently be notified that vaccines are not available.

And for the record, I'd be screaming about this no matter who was in office.
No doubt that's a huge clusterfuck. Where we seem to differ is in our vision of what a new federal administration can do to resolve these local issues (exacerbated by near-total lack of federal guidance/aid) in the course of single-digit weeks. While also cleaning up myriad other messes that were left.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I honestly feel like the fact that she is extremely healthy (knocks on wood) is a disadvantage with this.
It's as if having no ailments or disabilities is working against her when trying to get in line.
It's part of the reason she is so nonchalant about whether she gets one or not.
I know we are blessed, but we still worry and want to see her protected.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stimpy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:37 pm I honestly feel like the fact that she is extremely healthy (knocks on wood) is a disadvantage with this.
It's as if having no ailments or disabilities is working against her when trying to get in line.
It's part of the reason she is so nonchalant about whether she gets one or not.
I know we are blessed, but we still worry and want to see her protected.
Absolutely. I'm going to continue freaking out until I and my kids get the shot, neither of which is likely anytime soon. All of us healthy and me well aware that we are quite fortunate. But I totally get the worry, as I'm in the same boat. Thankfully all the elder folks in my extended family have either received or are in the process of receiving their shots.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stimpy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:20 pm A big part of my frustration comes from personal experience of trying to get an appointment for my 91 year old Mother.
She has a great attitude about the whole thing and can take or leave getting the shot.
I can relate as getting my parents their vaccine appointments was a nightmare. My recommendation to anyone is to try and speak with someone over using an online registration system. I don't know where your mother lives, but I'd be calling the local or county office on aging (sometimes called senior services) to see if they're coordinating vaccinations for elders.

One of the immediate lessons for this rollout is that setting up online systems to get people registered for a drive through vaccination excludes so many people - likely those that need the vaccination most.

Some states tried to pivot after screwing up the initial rollout by setting up a state-level phone number for seniors, but that's still too broad of a net. Shots for seniors should have been coordinated from a county (better) or local (best) level through their various senior groups, visiting nurses, social clubs,religious organizations, etc... Some states (like mine) are just getting to that now - 2+ months after it should have been started.

Anyway, I'm rambling. If you need help in finding a name or number for who to call, send me a PM with your mother's city or county (and state). I will try to help.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:52 pm I can relate as getting my parents their vaccine appointments was a nightmare. My recommendation to anyone is to try and speak with someone over using an online registration system. I don't know where your mother lives, but I'd be calling the local or county office on aging (sometimes called senior services) to see if they're coordinating vaccinations for elders.
That's been one of the biggest sources of frustration.

The town she lives in doesn't have any office for this and is not offering the shot.
It's because they are not part of some larger county wide group or something.
So we've been forced to go to surrounding towns (one literally across the street from her) and basically lie and say she is a resident.
No one has questioned us on that yet, but probably because we can't get anything scheduled.
if we do, we are not too worried about anyone turning her away if/when we show up.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Huh. Well...I saw your PM before your post. That's, uh, something. I hope I can help.

In unrelated news, The Lost Year: What the Pandemic Cost Teenagers:
Plenty of parents continue to worry for their children’s health amid the pandemic. But the primary concern from a public health standpoint has been the role that children and young adults might play in transmitting the disease to others. A growing body of evidence suggests that younger children are the least likely to transmit the virus, but that as children grow older, their capacity for transmission approaches that of adults.

This has posed a conundrum from early in the pandemic: How much should children be prevented from doing outside the home, to keep them from contributing to community transmission of a highly contagious virus? Or to put it more broadly: How much of normal youth should they be asked to sacrifice? It has been a difficult balance to strike, on both a societal and family level.
As someone currently in charge of a teenager, this has been...a year.
As many of these experts have noted, the cost of restrictions on youth has gone beyond academics. The CDC found that the proportion of visits to the emergency room by adolescents between ages 12 and 17 that were mental-health-related increased 31% during the span of March to October 2020, compared with the same months in 2019. A study in the March 2021 issue of Pediatrics, the journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics, of people aged 11 to 21 visiting emergency rooms found “significantly higher” rates of “suicidal ideation” during the first half of 2020 (compared to 2019), as well as higher rates of suicide attempts, though the actual number of suicides remained flat.

Doctors are concerned about possible increases in childhood obesity — no surprise with many kids housebound in stress-filled homes — while addiction experts are warning of the long-term effects of endless hours of screen time when both schoolwork and downtime stimulation are delivered digitally. (Perhaps the only indicator of youth distress that is falling — reports of child abuse and neglect, which dropped about 40% early in the pandemic — is nonetheless worrisome because experts suspect it is the reporting that is declining, not the frequency of the abuse.)
Probably the best quote:
“An entire generation between the ages of 5 and 18 has been effectively removed from society at large,” wrote Maryland pediatrician Lavanya Sithanandam in The Washington Post. “They do not have the same ability to vote or speak out.”
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Zaxxon wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:52 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pmWe're going to blow this in the 4th quarter, mark my words.
I am relieved to hear that we're entering the 4th quarter.

But also, yes--we're fucked.
Weren't we blowing it in the 1st through 3rd quarters as well?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:45 pm Huh. Well...I saw your PM before your post. That's, uh, something. I hope I can help.

In unrelated news, The Lost Year: What the Pandemic Cost Teenagers:
Plenty of parents continue to worry for their children’s health amid the pandemic. But the primary concern from a public health standpoint has been the role that children and young adults might play in transmitting the disease to others. A growing body of evidence suggests that younger children are the least likely to transmit the virus, but that as children grow older, their capacity for transmission approaches that of adults.

This has posed a conundrum from early in the pandemic: How much should children be prevented from doing outside the home, to keep them from contributing to community transmission of a highly contagious virus? Or to put it more broadly: How much of normal youth should they be asked to sacrifice? It has been a difficult balance to strike, on both a societal and family level.
As someone currently in charge of a teenager, this has been...a year.
As many of these experts have noted, the cost of restrictions on youth has gone beyond academics. The CDC found that the proportion of visits to the emergency room by adolescents between ages 12 and 17 that were mental-health-related increased 31% during the span of March to October 2020, compared with the same months in 2019. A study in the March 2021 issue of Pediatrics, the journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics, of people aged 11 to 21 visiting emergency rooms found “significantly higher” rates of “suicidal ideation” during the first half of 2020 (compared to 2019), as well as higher rates of suicide attempts, though the actual number of suicides remained flat.

Doctors are concerned about possible increases in childhood obesity — no surprise with many kids housebound in stress-filled homes — while addiction experts are warning of the long-term effects of endless hours of screen time when both schoolwork and downtime stimulation are delivered digitally. (Perhaps the only indicator of youth distress that is falling — reports of child abuse and neglect, which dropped about 40% early in the pandemic — is nonetheless worrisome because experts suspect it is the reporting that is declining, not the frequency of the abuse.)
Probably the best quote:
“An entire generation between the ages of 5 and 18 has been effectively removed from society at large,” wrote Maryland pediatrician Lavanya Sithanandam in The Washington Post. “They do not have the same ability to vote or speak out.”
Ya I really hope next school year they are back in school and have at least somewhat normal lives.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Weren't we blowing it in the 1st through 3rd quarters as well?
We weren't doing great, but we actually started to make progress once the vaccine rollout began. If we could have just held the line for another few months and not opened the floodgates...

Part of the problem is the fatigue associated with living in a country/state with uncontrolled spread that started in March of 2020. People are tired (I get it) but letting our collective guard down during this last leg is...going to end badly.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

my first day of work from home was March 6, 2020 - over a year ago, now.

fittingly enough, in the rush to pack up my office stuff two days before, i lost my 2020 planner

i dug up the email from that time, and this still is a side-slapper:
We will continue to monitor the situation, but at this time we should plan to be working remotely through Friday 3/20/2020.
the 'secret' internal government memo at the time specifically said the US would be dealing with the impact for 12-18 months from then. no one wanted to listen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/p ... -plan.html
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:03 pm
Weren't we blowing it in the 1st through 3rd quarters as well?
We weren't doing great, but we actually started to make progress once the vaccine rollout began. If we could have just held the line for another few months and not opened the floodgates...
We opened the floodgates because we're tired, and we're tired because we opened the floodgates (repeatedly).

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:03 pm
Weren't we blowing it in the 1st through 3rd quarters as well?
We weren't doing great, but we actually started to make progress once the vaccine rollout began. If we could have just held the line for another few months and not opened the floodgates...

Part of the problem is the fatigue associated with living in a country/state with uncontrolled spread that started in March of 2020. People are tired (I get it) but letting our collective guard down during this last leg is...going to end badly.
That is why the next few months are predictable in a way. Despite the lessons we've learned, we won't change. The chances that we're going to do the wrong thing and tens of thousands of people are going to die who shouldn't is extremely high. It stinks.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by The Meal »

Wow, that CDC guidance for fully vaccinated individuals (in small gatherings, indoors) caught me by surprise. I did not anticipate receiving that level of good news so quickly. I do understand this isn't state or local guidance, and it may morph as more data is collected (and efficacy of current vaccines vs. propagation of new strains becomes more fully understood).

I had my mind wrapped around the idea of indoor poker being a fully masked activity (i.e., no drinks in the poker room) from now until forever. It still will for high-risk individuals (MHS and a handful of others in our game), but likely not in the general case. I'm (pleasantly) floored by this news.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes, it's much better than I anticipated as well and if it pushes more people to get vaccinated, even better.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by RunningMn9 »

We broke everything, why hasn’t someone else fixed it yet? The anthem of the modern GOP.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Image

/never gets old
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:03 pm
Weren't we blowing it in the 1st through 3rd quarters as well?
We weren't doing great, but we actually started to make progress once the vaccine rollout began. If we could have just held the line for another few months and not opened the floodgates...

Part of the problem is the fatigue associated with living in a country/state with uncontrolled spread that started in March of 2020. People are tired (I get it) but letting our collective guard down during this last leg is...going to end badly.
I can't speak for the nation but around here I predict the fatigue based floodgates and response happen this weekend, on the anniversary weekend of when it happened last year and the state went from recommending best practices to lockdown. This is St Patrick's Day weekend, the first rite of spring, no matter how cold it may be, if there are places the are open that will let you crowd in doors and drink and be loud and breath hard, people will be packed and doing so.

We'll see what 50% capacity means and whether people stick to it and also how effective the "restaurant curfew" is or how many people take it home to continue after 11:00 until this wee hours of Whiskey on a Sunday.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/ ... 886499002/
Restaurants and bars may have 50% indoor dining capacity, up to 100 people. Tables must still be 6 feet apart, with a max of six people at a table. A curfew on indoor dining is still in effect, but this order bumps it back from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m.
So the 8 Ball says... Ask again later. I predict a SE Michigan spike that goes as far NW as Lansing in about 2.5 weeks but I also predict good weather and increased vaccinations leaving the are not caring. I don't know how that will translate to needless spread of disease beyond the party weekend nor what the effects of needless spread will be. A reasonable chunk of the 65+ crowd that wants a vaccine has a least one shot working its way toward something good.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:27 am Where's malchior? Women's roller derby has a plan:
The roller derby guidelines put community and player health ahead of the need to keep the game going for the sake of eager fans. Meanwhile, in other sports, efforts to resume play continue even as cases turn up among players; and Covid-19 numbers are rising in the very areas where events are meant to be held. By taking local infection dynamics into account, the roller derby guidelines could end up serving as a template for how other leagues—including those for recreational, youth, and high school sports—could safely come back.
...
The guidelines don’t just address athletes, but also include recommendations for officials, photographers, announcers, and other volunteers. The section spelling out the WFTDA’s safety-first policy on spectators is so good, it “almost made me cry,” Binney says. “It’s so nice to see a clear, unambiguously right take.” According to the guidelines, a small live audience is permissible at tier 5, but large-scale events and audiences likely will require “the existence of commercially available vaccines.” This puts them on the conserative end of the spectrum. While pro leagues like the National Basketball Association and Major League Baseball are also restarting without fans, college football, NASCAR, and the Kentucky Derby are all still planning to allow spectators, as of now.
Remember when women's roller derby had a plan? Well they "woke" up (details below) - to be clear I don't have a problem with the policy but the language they wrapped around this instantly turned this into political in-fighting between multiple groups. Especially over the "marginalize and oppress" line. Inequitable access is a problem but we still have to keep people alive. Instead of a reasonable exception policy we have a mess.

COVID-19 Updates and Vaccine Statement
The WFTDA is grateful for the community’s adherence to our COVID-19 Guidelines as we work together to keep our skaters, officials, supporters, and families safe. The recent development of several COVID-19 vaccines is a welcome sign in the rebuilding of the sport of roller derby, but we know the anxiety that our teams and clubs are feeling around our return can be overwhelming.

We recognize the vaccine rollout has been anything but equitable, particularly in places such as the United States and the European Union, and that not everyone will be able to get the vaccine (eg. people with certain medical conditions.) As leagues look toward reopening and/or rebuilding, we encourage them to create non-exclusionary and equity-minded policies with return to play for all skaters, officials, and supporters who feel safe to do so. Prioritize your community before competition.

To help leagues plan, we’re offering a few clarifications:

The WFTDA recommends but does not mandate vaccination: We fully support and recommend our community members getting vaccinated, if and when they are able to. We believe in science, but recognize that it can also be used to marginalize and oppress, as well as help. Additionally, vaccination rollout is inequitable at best, and that each person’s personal health needs (such as being immunocompromised or having severe allergic reaction to vaccine components) may make it impossible to get vaccinated.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Wait...so they're saying that because vaccine rollout has been fraught with problems and there are issues of inequity, they're not going to require participants are vaccinated - as that would further exclude people?

I appreciate you sharing this as it's not something I'd normally see (I am not tapped into women's roller derby in any capacity). It's an interesting discussion point and I'll be curious to see how it unfolds in various states.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:58 pm Wait...so they're saying that because vaccine rollout has been fraught with problems and there are issues of inequity, they're not going to require participants are vaccinated - as that would further exclude people?

I appreciate you sharing this as it's not something I'd normally see (I am not tapped into women's roller derby in any capacity). It's an interesting discussion point and I'll be curious to see how it unfolds in various states.
Yeah it'll be interesting. They are obsessed with inclusiveness and this is an extension of that. This is first time I've heard anyone say that someone would use a vaccine to 'marginalize and oppress' someone. The higher echelons of the leadership in the sport are academics and this smacks of ivory tower stuff. An example of it would have been helpful at least since it has driven division and confusion in only a few short hours.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

on actual efficacy rates:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ed/618226/
I can see why this might seem like quibbling, but I just don’t think it’s a trivial matter. It would be different if I thought the effectiveness of every one of those six vaccines against hospitalizations and death would really end up being close to 100 percent—or if I bought into the idea, now widespread, that they have already been shown to “nearly” or “effectively” eliminate these outcomes. There is very good reason to be encouraged by the data, but to say right now that people who have been vaccinated face zero risk of serious outcomes—that, for them, COVID-19 is no more dangerous than the common cold—is sure to influence behavior. Imagine how people in high-risk groups would feel about going to the movies, or how their employers would feel about putting resources into workplace safety, if we all assumed that vaccines confer perfect protection against hospitalization or death. Now imagine how the same people and employers would feel knowing they were 85 percent protected.

Nor is there any reason to believe that the public or the personal interest will be served by hype. People who think the vaccines provide ironclad protection may lose trust in experts if reality falls short. Trust in coronavirus-vaccine information is already a problem, and could sink even lower. Activists who are opposed to vaccination may end up turning experts’ “super-pumped” promises against them.

“The idea that people can’t handle nuance,” Jha tweeted at the end of February, “it’s paternalistic. And untrue.” I couldn’t agree more. The principle of treating people like adults is fundamental. We don’t need to exaggerate. Talking about the trade-offs between different medicines and vaccines is often complicated, but we do it all the time—and we can do it with COVID-19 vaccines too.
i'm confused. can the general population handle nuance, or can't they? evidence points to the latter (MAGA-land certainly can't handle it)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Lorini »

If anyone doesn't like the way the vaccine is rolling out in their state, they should find and then complain to their state representatives, especially the governor's office, that's who is in charge.

California has 40M people so there's no way the rollout could have gone very smoothly. The other issue that is hanging over the rollout is that some of the people who are targeted to get the vaccine don't know how to use the websites to sign up, and they want to call the same phone number given to everyone. That's a disaster waiting to happen.

It seems to have calmed down in the LA area. People aren't complaining nearly as much as they were a month ago.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »


“The U.S. death rate increased by 15 percent last year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, making it the deadliest year in recorded U.S. history, the ⁦@CDCgov⁩ will announce, according to two senior administration officials ..”
:shock:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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