Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Zaxxon]

In completely unrelated news, hello back-to-school, Colorado!

[LawBeefaroni]

And consider that almost no one is testing any more. The number of people home from work right now with "summer colds" is highly suspicious


But we'll never go back to 2020-2021 measures. It's so passé.

[Zaxxon]

Speaking of which, I'm starting to see a bit of this on the ole' social feeds. I'm sure it's not related to the general rise in COVID prevalence.



At least the reactions are empty after a few hours.

[Max Peck]

Yeah, a rise in hospitalizations was the lede for this week's local COVID report from the CBC.

Ottawa's COVID trends are rising, some of them quickly

Average active COVID hospitalizations more than 5 times higher than 2 weeks ago

Recent developments:

• Ottawa's COVID-19 levels are rising and moderate to very high.
• Its hospitalizations and outbreaks have spiked.
• Some numbers are back where they were at the start of 2023.
• Quebec recommends an autumn booster dose for vulnerable people.
• Six more local COVID deaths have been reported.

[Smoove_B]

But we'll never go back to 2020-2021 measures. It's so passé.

I largely agree with the caveat that if hospitals start overflowing and they need to start bringing in refrigerated trucks, there will likely be pressure to stem transmission for a few weeks. In other words, it's going to take some magical unknown number of deaths in a short time period + hospitals being overwhelmed to force a discussion. Anything less is just the price we all collectively pay for freedom to brunch.

Note that this isn't enough:



The data updates every Thursday evening, so maybe I'll come back and see what the change is over one week.

[Blackhawk]

I don't know that Biden could even hope to get away with declaring a state of emergency again, not without having Congress turn around and terminate it (lots of people up for election, or having someone rush a lawsuit to the Supreme Court that sets some ugly precedent regarding the authority.

[Kraken]

And consider that almost no one is testing any more. The number of people home from work right now with "summer colds" is highly suspicious


But we'll never go back to 2020-2021 measures. It's so passé.

I took a covid test just last night. I'd been feeling slightly punk for a couple of days, and wanted to rule that out before starting a new medication that can cause side effects. We stocked up with many, many test kits.

[LordMortis]

I took a covid test just last night. I'd been feeling slightly punk for a couple of days, and wanted to rule that out before starting a new medication that can cause side effects. We stocked up with many, many test kits.

I got a box full of them in April before they weren't "free" in May. I also got a second round delivered when they made them available. I haven't used any of them. I went through three of the original four I got delivered before they were well expired. For all I know the others are expired at this point. It's not that I wouldn't won't use them. It's that ever since going into COVID hiding and leaving an office full of parents who always come in to work sick, I don't get sick any more, so the need to use the tests is pretty much zero.

I'm sure the first time I get something that isn't allergies or a headache or post nasal drip, I'll go into full OMG do got the RONA? mode, like I did the last time I got a cough and sore throat in 2021.

[Defiant]

The recent upturn in COVID-19 cases in some regions has spurred a handful of entities around the country to reinstate mask mandates, reigniting the debate over what place masking requirements have in an era of living with the coronavirus.

Earlier this week, Hollywood movie studio Lionsgate asked its employees to wear masks on certain floors of its facilities in Santa Monica, Calif., in response to a few staff members testing positive for COVID-19.

Kaiser Permanente began to require staff, patients and visitors to wear masks at its facility in Santa Rosa, Calif., this week in response to a spike in cases. Upstate Medical University in New York announced a similar decision last week for two of its hospitals.

Schools including Rutgers University in New Jersey and Morris Brown College in Georgia have issued mask mandates for their respective campuses, with the Atlanta-based school reinstating masks as a two-week precautionary measure.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... -19-cases/

[Smoove_B]

More on what's happening in LA county:

After a relatively calm summer, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) is reporting a rise in measures of Covid-19 transmission for the fifth consecutive week,” the department announced today.

...

The average of 512 daily cases this week is a nearly 35% increase over last week week. Reported cases do not include home tests, so it’s fairly certain that the actual number of Covid infections is much higher.

...

Possibly more important, test positivity has risen to 14%, a not insignificant number. That’s above the 13.8% test positivity peak last winter and very close to the peak of 15.64% the county saw last summer.

...

Currently, Los Angeles County is reporting a daily average of 422 hospitalizations, a 30 percent increase from the week prior and there has also been a consistent, small increase in the proportion of emergency department visits attributed to Covid over the past month. While hospitalizations are increasing, the current levels are still far lower than what was seen in 2022 during the summer peak, when there was an average of 1,287 COVID patients hospitalized each day.

We're in a timeline where I get my COVID-19 news from Deadline.

[LordMortis]

SMAC was right — but the Human Hive and Lord’s Believers allied with the Morganites in the US to overcome University of Planet and Gaia before launch. Given time and climate change, we may grow the fungal blooms on Earth.

I wonder what it takes to get those old CDs working on my computer with Windows 10... GOG. I may just have to break down and pay $6 again for the memories.

$1.49 for the autumn sale right now. Game replaced. We'll see how well it stands the test of time. I think the last time I played was in the XP era, maybe even late 98 era.

[LawBeefaroni]

Got notification from school of several confirmed cases. At least they're still reporting.

Now, in theory and per CPS guidelines, anyone exposed at the school has to wear a mask for 10 days. Want to guess how many students are wearing masks?

[Blackhawk]

Son's home from work sick. He's still in bed, so I haven't had the time to stick an expired swab up his nose yet.

[Smoove_B]

Is this the final say on the pandemic? Probably not, but it's damn good:

Several weeks ago, two op-eds appeared in The Boston Globe—one by President Biden’s former Covid czar, Ashish Jha, and the other by Jerome Adams, President Trump’s surgeon general. The occasion was the clear increase in Covid-19 cases this summer. Jha, who is back at his old gig as the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, made a case for, in his words, “ignoring” Covid. This is an old refrain of his by now: We have the tools. If you’re vaccinated and have access to Paxlovid, why worry? Jha briefly acknowledged that some people may be more vulnerable, but apart from that, he played his biggest hit: Don’t worry, be happy. It’s what got him to the White House, and he’s not changing his tune now.

...

Despite what Jha says, it is still prudent to protect yourself and those you love from infection, particularly since community-level protections are gone and widespread environmental upgrades that could have minimized the spread (such as indoor ventilation) were never implemented. Yes, things are far better than in 2020, but the virus is still here, and you don’t want to get it.

...

Jha and Doron and their ilk can speak so soothingly because they are part of the class that is much more insulated from the worst effects of Covid. People like them—the ones with money and access—can afford the expensive Covid tests. They can ensure that Paxlovid reaches their door quickly. They’ll be first in line for the new boosters. Some of them even have a concierge physician on speed dial for when things get hairy. Meanwhile, they offer the rest of the country the policy equivalent of “You do you” and “Let them eat cake.”

Of note:

The New York Times recently reported on new estimates from researchers that Covid might lead to at least 45,000 deaths between September and April—and that’s the best-case scenario. “Based on these projections, Covid is likely to remain in the leading causes of death in the United States for the foreseeable future,” Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health, told the Times.

In closing:

In his 1992 book The Culture of Contentment, a series of essays that ring very true today, the late economist John Kenneth Galbraith wrote that “individuals and communities that are favored in their economic, social and political condition attribute social virtue and political durability to that which they themselves enjoy. That attribution, in turn, is made to apply even in the face of commanding evidence to the contrary.”

This is the exact problem we face now: a favored class that sees its own comfort as a sign that everything’s fine. As a result, the members of the Church of the Contented Establishment—from the White House to Jha and his Brown colleague Emily Oster, to David Leonhardt at The New York Times and Leana Wen at The Washington Post, to even infectious-disease doctors like Monica Gandhi at the University of California San Francisco—are pushing a narrative about Covid and our public health that, thanks to its influence within elite circles, is more subtly corrupting and poisonous than anything that outright Covid denialists like Ron DeSantis have come up with.

[LordMortis]

I'd debate getting out an watching the Michigan and/or Lions home opener but new school year's starting plus no vaccine means, nope. I mean, I went out to be social and around people in public in doors once in this past year. I may still go see the Dead Milkmen play for free outdoors this Sunday. Still on the fence. Stupid timing for school and no shot and me itching to get out with things I actually want to do.

[Smoove_B]

Dinosaur Jr. is playing at an old haunt of my here in NJ in two weeks, but I just can't bring myself to go. It's depressing the hell out of me.

[malchior]

In closing:

In his 1992 book The Culture of Contentment, a series of essays that ring very true today, the late economist John Kenneth Galbraith wrote that “individuals and communities that are favored in their economic, social and political condition attribute social virtue and political durability to that which they themselves enjoy. That attribution, in turn, is made to apply even in the face of commanding evidence to the contrary.”

This is the exact problem we face now: a favored class that sees its own comfort as a sign that everything’s fine. As a result, the members of the Church of the Contented Establishment—from the White House to Jha and his Brown colleague Emily Oster, to David Leonhardt at The New York Times and Leana Wen at The Washington Post, to even infectious-disease doctors like Monica Gandhi at the University of California San Francisco—are pushing a narrative about Covid and our public health that, thanks to its influence within elite circles, is more subtly corrupting and poisonous than anything that outright Covid denialists like Ron DeSantis have come up with.

Just chiming in to say this is all true and it is a microcosm of how all policy making is happening in our society. I'm hardly a populist but I get why people are so, so angry out there. They don't necessarily understand what happened but there are a lot people debilitated and suffering out there because of amoral pricks like Jha and his ilk.

[LordMortis]

I've already missed a bunch of shows indoors that I wasn't yet ready to do. I'd probably make that jump with an updated booster plus a different time of the year and not having had two major surgeries in the last five months with two sets of fresh not biological gear in my body but the way things are falling, continues to be a nope.

[Smoove_B]

It's pretty much all we have

September 8th US update:

Community spread of Covid is "high", with a correction upwards last week as well. Current estimates:

720,000 new infections/day
1 in every 460 new people were infected today
1 in every 46 people currently infected

[Zaxxon]

If only there were some proactive mitigating treatment we could apply. Some sort of blueprint to prepare the body for exposure to this virus. Maybe they'll invent something like that someday.

[Punisher]

If only there were some proactive mitigating treatment we could apply. Some sort of blueprint to prepare the body for exposure to this virus. Maybe they'll invent something like that someday.

You take your snake oil idea somewhere else!

[Smoove_B]

If only there were some proactive mitigating treatment we could apply. Some sort of blueprint to prepare the body for exposure to this virus. Maybe they'll invent something like that someday.

What's interesting is if you read through the comments:

So, we are nearing March-April 2020 & “darkest winter of our lives” numbers?

In number of cases per day yes. In hospitalizations and deaths, nowhere close. More comparable to fall of 2022 in all metrics.

As we (me?) have been saying for a while, it's all about deaths - and the lack thereof. As long as people aren't dropping dead, nothing else matters. Sick for a month? Heart muscle damage? Long Covid? Doesn't matter - you're not dead.

[Zaxxon]

So, we are nearing March-April 2020 & “darkest winter of our lives” numbers?

In number of cases per day yes. In hospitalizations and deaths, nowhere close. More comparable to fall of 2022 in all metrics.

I'm just frustrated that yet again we've managed to fuck it up in an entirely self-inflicted way. It's September 8th, and neither I nor anyone else has public info as to when and whether I'll be able to vaccinate. I should have [the option to have] this fucker in my arm by now.

[Smoove_B]

Frustrating is the right word. As I mentioned earlier, the big "sell" for the mRNA vaccines was how fast they could be updated and produced. That means nothing if administrative nonsense is holding up approvals. But again, if people aren't dying, there's no need to rush. What kind of message would that send? Why are you rushing for something that is no big deal anymore? That's confusing!

Also, really, really be prepared to not be able to get a vaccination. I still cannot rule it out.

[LordMortis]

So, we are nearing March-April 2020 & “darkest winter of our lives” numbers?

In number of cases per day yes. In hospitalizations and deaths, nowhere close. More comparable to fall of 2022 in all metrics.

I'm just frustrated that yet again we've managed to fuck it up in an entirely self-inflicted way. It's September 8th, and neither I nor anyone else has public info as to when and whether I'll be able to vaccinate. I should have [the option to have] this fucker in my arm by now.

Yesterday they said info today with shot being available as early as Monday. Today they said info Tuesday. Tuesday they'll say....

Now the news sites are back to "by as soon as mid September"... Um it's mid September now, that line doesn't really work any more.

I do wonder where they are getting their info from. CDC hasn't updated anything since July and those updates were about the current shot.

With regard to not dying, Michigan is currently at 371 daily hospitalizations out of 361 daily reported new cases. Can't we see something is wrong here?

I really hate that I'm starting to pay close attention again and worse the attempt are yielding how bad the information out there is.

[Blackhawk]

If only there were some proactive mitigating treatment we could apply. Some sort of blueprint to prepare the body for exposure to this virus. Maybe they'll invent something like that someday.

Yes! Maybe something that works on horses, too - and kills mosquitoes!

[Zaxxon]

If only there were some proactive mitigating treatment we could apply. Some sort of blueprint to prepare the body for exposure to this virus. Maybe they'll invent something like that someday.

Yes! Maybe something that works on horses, too - and kills mosquitoes!

Goddammit.

[Smoove_B]

I really hate that I'm starting to pay close attention again and worse the attempt are yielding how bad the information out there is.

Now imagine you never stopped paying close attention. I am absolutely fried.

[Zaxxon]

I really hate that I'm starting to pay close attention again and worse the attempt are yielding how bad the information out there is.

Now imagine you never stopped paying close attention. I am absolutely fried.

There is probably a point at which the stress of caring so much is more dangerous to you than COVID is. You probably passed it in 2021.

[Smoove_B]

There is probably a point at which the stress of caring so much is more dangerous to you than COVID is. You probably passed it in 2021.

Oh, for sure. Wish I knew how to turn it off.

Spoiler:

[Zaxxon]

I can’t imagine, in your profession. It’s been difficult for me to turn it off, and I’m just some schmuck.

[Victoria Raverna]

Frustrating is the right word. As I mentioned earlier, the big "sell" for the mRNA vaccines was how fast they could be updated and produced. That means nothing if administrative nonsense is holding up approvals. But again, if people aren't dying, there's no need to rush. What kind of message would that send? Why are you rushing for something that is no big deal anymore? That's confusing!

Also, really, really be prepared to not be able to get a vaccination. I still cannot rule it out.

Why you need to keep updating the vaccines while in other countries like for example where I am right now, most people stopped doing boosters since over a year ago. And we don't see a lot of COVID-19 cases or hospitalization here this year. Is COVID-19 really over for most countries or they just don't keep track of it and there are excess death worldwide that are hidden?

[Max Peck]

Winter is coming.

The city's pandemic numbers to watch are mostly stable or rising at moderate to high levels in the weekly Ottawa Public Health (OPH) updates.

Because of this, OPH says the city's health-care institutions are at a high risk from respiratory illnesses like they would be in December, January and February.

Medical Officer of Health Dr. Vera Etches said around the start of the month that, like last year, COVID activity is expected to pick back up in autumn along with flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

Citing the respiratory virus season, The Ottawa Hospital said it's bringing back mandatory masking in waiting rooms and clinical areas such as patient rooms and nursing stations on Monday, Sept. 11.

The Queensway Carleton Hospital made a similar move at the end of August.

Experts recommend that people wear masks, keep their hands clean, stay home when sick and keep up to date with COVID vaccines to help protect themselves and vulnerable people.

Updated booster doses are expected in early autumn.

[Smoove_B]

Is COVID-19 really over for most countries or they just don't keep track of it and there are excess death worldwide that are hidden?

In a nutshell, because 90%+ of the world has been vaccinated, had the virus or a combination of both the pressure to *do anything* seems to have disappeared. And the reason the pressure to do anything has disappeared is because people (largely) aren't dying anymore; people are not overwhelming hospitals. Like many other diseases, we've now pushed it on to the most vulnerable - elders, children and people with underlying medical conditions. That said, children aren't dying in large numbers and people with underlying medical conditions are historically ignored, which leaves us with elders. They're still (seemingly) the highest risk for death, so that's where most attention is going right now.

Are there people under the age of 65 that are dying from complications associated with COVID-19? Absolutely. But it's apparently happening at an acceptable level - a magic number that doesn't require any special action or proactive response; mission accomplished.

Are we going to have a generation of children and young adults that have chronic illness because of repeated exposures to COVID-19? Are we going to have a significant number of middle-aged folks dying younger and/or also suffering from chronic health complications? I guess we'll see.

Meanwhile, there's no lasting immunity as the virus continues to circulate unchecked. When faced with options (adopt reasonable masking practices, fund HVAC improvements, fund research on Long Covid, etc...) we've instead decided whatever this new burden is (waves arms around) is perfectly acceptable - and cheaper than addressing what has changed since 2019.

[Grifman]

I had a family get together Labor Day weekend, and we had our own mini superspreader event. Eight of of ten came down with Covid, including me for the first time . Luckily it hasn’t bern bad, I’ve had colds that were worse. A couple of days of aches/pains, 4 days of light fever. Sill have head and chest congestion, but things have gotten better each day.

Should note, no anti-vaxxers, everyone was vaxed and most everyone boosted.

[Smoove_B]

Sorry to hear that.

Here's an excellent state of the union that was posted yesterday:

Among people who are still paying attention to Covid-19, there’s been a recent surge — not just in viral activity but in the concern once again being paid to Covid.

...

While the angst is understandable, there’s something we need to grasp at this point in our coexistence with SARS-CoV-2: This is our life now.

...

Yes, the number of new hospital admissions is rising, and the number of deaths may follow. But they are far below the figures of previous years. In the last week of August 2021, there were nearly 86,000 new hospital admissions. Last year at the same time, the number was 37,000. This year it was 17,400.

I think this where I'm stuck:

None of this is to say that Covid isn’t a serious threat for some. Although the infection feels like a cold or the flu for many people, this is not the common cold. It can put an infected person into hospital. It can kill. It can trigger long Covid, in which symptoms linger for months or longer.

Epidemiologist Bill Hanage noted that already this year, there have been roughly 100,000 Covid deaths in the United States — and there are 3.5 months left in the year. If half that number of people were to die during a flu season, it would be deemed a disastrous flu year.

It's that last part. When I think about the amount of work I've done for annual influenza vaccinations - a disease that kills a quarter (?) a third (?) of the people currently dying from Covid each year, it makes my head spin - because in comparison we aren't doing jack shit for Covid anymore. And if we're not doing anything for a disease that's killing 120k (?) people a year, why the hell are we doing anything about influenza? Food safety? Cars? I know I've said it before, but that's what I'm really struggling with.

Collectively, public health focuses on leading killers and/or conditions and diseases that cause disability. Out of nowhere we have something jump into the Top 10 and we're treating it now like it's some random disease like Scarlet fever or typhus that no one thinks about anymore.

Regardless, all that's left is what we're willing to do:

For instance, Osterholm suggested it would be worthwhile having a discussion about whether schools in a particular area should temporarily close if absenteeism hits high numbers. The idea, he said, would be to treat a local burst of illness like snow days — not closing in-person schooling for protracted periods, as was done during the pandemic.

“But you can’t have that discussion right now. It’s like a third rail,” he said. But if influenza was emptying schools in the years before the Covid pandemic, “we would have done it in a heartbeat.”

And this:

“It is a struggle to figure out how to communicate what’s going on with Covid activity accurately, to give people a sense of scale,” she said. “We are about two months into this recent increase … but it’s not as severe as this time last year … both, I think, in terms of activity in general … and in terms of hospitalizations and deaths.”

Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health, can see Hanage’s point, but he also has concerns that in normalizing Covid’s role in our lives, we might be tempted to minimize it.

“I think there’s this idea that … ‘here to stay’ or ‘endemic’ somehow means ‘no big deal,’” he said. “And that’s not true.”

Final observation:

Coming to grips with what life is going to be like with Covid as a part of the respiratory diseases mix could help us make better, more sustainable decisions about what we are and are not willing to do to try to mitigate its damage, the experts said. And toning down reactions to blips or upticks in cases could help avoid further Covid burnout that could prove counterproductive down the road, they suggested.

Anyway, I thought it was a fair and reasonable article....as we head into our next Covid winter.

[Zaxxon]

tl;dr summary:

Anyway, I thought it was a fair and reasonable article....as we head into winter.

FTFY.

[Smoove_B]

I don't really think I can say it better than this



Unrelated, but I'm trying to confirm word that Dr. Leana Wen has Long Covid. I can't focus with this Alanis Morissette song blasting in the background.

[malchior]

Leana Wen writes about her months long bout of..."long pneumonia".

This week, I wrote about the need to focus resources on treating and preventing long covid. I can relate to the frustration and desperation of people suffering from long-term conditions, as I’ve been managing my own months-long recovery from pneumonia.

In July, I wrote about the unsettling experience of being on the other side of the stethoscope when I suddenly fell very ill and was hospitalized. Many readers have kindly written to ask whether I’ve fully recovered.

I wish I could say yes — that as soon as the antibiotics kicked in, I was back to everything I was doing before. The truth is far from that.

The first week was rough, as expected. I was so tired, I could barely get out of bed. I gasped for breath after walking 10 steps to the bathroom. Thankfully, the fatigue lessened, and I was able to resume work.

[Smoove_B]

Ah, didn't realize it was coming from her self-reporting chronic pneumonia, which is totally a real thing and not at all Long Covid. Minimizing even while suffering; she's definitely committed to the con.