The idea that Hamas cannot be defeated is absurd. Of course it can, as El Guapo points out, but it's a matter of the cost to Israel in blood (its soldiers and hostages), resources and PR, not to mention the bigger picture ethical/moral issues surrounding the inevitable resulting civilian casualties in Gaza.El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2024 3:25 pmYup. Or put another way, defeating Hamas militarily (even an overwhelming victory) doesn't solve the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel can only get real permanent peace through either a deal with the Palestinians (whatever that ultimately looks like) or massive crimes against humanity (ethnic cleansing - essentially expelling substantially all Palestinians from the occupied territories).Blackhawk wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2024 1:17 pm They can defeat Hamas militarily, but they're just going to end up with a new Hamas with a slightly different name. Overcoming the second factor will would require changes in policy, behavior, and would require generations.
...or they can just wipe Gaza off the map, in which case they'll end up with even more of the same, but from from slightly fewer borders.
The most optimistic scenario I can think of is Hamas gets crippled militarily in the next month or so, then a new Israeli government is elected in September without the right wing extremist parties, which is then open to more realistic deals. Who knows if anything would happen in reality...but it at least becomes *possible*.
On The Daily today, they focused on the ongoing efforts to forge a grand international deal that would result in a ceasefire and a permanent Palestinian state in exchange for normalization of relations between Israel and its surrounding Arab neighbors (not Iran, obviously). Before October 7, the Saudis and a few other Arab states, the U.S. and Israel were making significant progress towards that goal, and many believe that one of the catalysts for the October 7 attack by Hamas was that they felt betrayed by their putative Arab allies as they appeared to inch closer to peace with Israel.
The Daily posited that there's still a way forward through a grand bargain that would guarantee formation of a Palestinian state, rebuilding of Gaza and the West Bank backed by the incredible resources of the oil-rich Arab states, and normal diplomatic relations between the Arab states and Israel.
That all makes sense to me, but for the fact that it leaves out one essential party to the negotiations: the Palestinians. As has been the case since after Arafat blew up the Oslo Accords and launched the Second Intifada, the Palestinians have no legitimate entity to represent them at the bargaining table. Israel will never, ever negotiate peace with Hamas. It may negotiate a cease fire and a return of hostages, but Israel will never stop until it feels it has wiped out every last vestige of Hamas. So who represents the Palestinians? The PA in the West Bank is reviled internally, so they're not really an option.
It feels to me like this is the major obstacle. Sure, the prevailing opinion in Israel right now is weighted against a 2 state solution involving formation of a Palestinian state, but I think that's very much influence by the lack of viable leadership on the Palestinian side. It wasn't that long ago that a 2 state solution was embraced by the Israeli population, and I think we could get back to that if they had any hope that there were Palestinians in charge who actually wanted a peaceful resolution. The absence of that has very much allowed Netanyahu and his right wing nut job allies to lead the country in a disastrous direction.