All things: China

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Max Peck
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Re: All things: China

Post by Max Peck »

She's almost certainly not going to stand trial. If she complies with the terms of the deferred prosecution agreement, then the charges will be dropped next year.
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Re: All things: China

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July 2021
In May, the editor-in-chief of Beijing’s Global Times newspaper, which generally reflects the views of the Chinese Communist Party, threatened Australia with ‘retaliatory punishment’ with missile strikes ‘on the military facilities and relevant key facilities on Australian soil’ if we were to send Australian troops to coordinate with the US and wage war with China over Taiwan.
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Re: All things: China

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China Has Only Itself to Blame for AUKUS
foreignpolicy.com wrote:The trilateral partnership was an inevitable result of Beijing’s military growth.

Late last week, the White House announced the creation of a new trilateral defense partnership among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. At the heart of this new partnership, known as AUKUS, was the announcement that Washington and London would help Canberra develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines.

China was not mentioned in this announcement, although the exponential growth of Beijing’s military power over the past decade was clearly the animating force behind the agreement. France was also not mentioned, even though Australia’s new agreement meant that it was dropping the 2016 contract it had with France for the delivery of French submarines. Not surprisingly, the announcement was met with bombast from Beijing and indignation from Paris.

But nobody should have been that shocked by the decision. It represented the convergence of three long-standing trend lines: the exponential growth and assertive use of the Chinese military; the drastic increase in political and economic pressure imposed on Australia by China; and the steadily growing American concerns about China, the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, and Washington’s determination to align its strategy with the scale of that challenge.

The United States does not share its world-leading naval nuclear propulsion freely. In fact, the only other country with access to such technology is Britain, which gained access in 1958 due to Cold War concerns. Washington has consistently denied entreaties by other allies over the years, largely driven by concerns that doing so would encourage nuclear proliferation.

Last week’s announcement does not amount to a change in Washington’s nuclear nonproliferation policy or in how widely it wants to share that technology. It was driven instead by unique circumstances and the extraordinary closeness of the U.S.-Australian relationship. Nonetheless, it is indicative of a larger shift in U.S. strategic thinking toward empowering its allies, forging a coalition of nations willing to push back against Beijing, and redistributing its force posture around the Indo-Pacific region in new ways.

For Australia, this is no less of a sea change. It is certainly big news that Australia canceled its contract with the French, who were slated to design and deliver 12 diesel-powered submarines by the 2030s. However, Canberra had been growing anxious for the past several years about cost overruns and delays on the delivery of those subs. Yet ultimately neither of those concerns proved to be the deal breaker for the Australians. Rather, it was the increasingly clear realization by the Australian government that China’s rapid military buildup of its naval and missile forces and the aggressive use of its military and economic power that were a direct threat to Australia and called for a more significant deterrent.

Nuclear-fueled submarines—with their ability to stay hidden longer, range further, and carry more significant capabilities—provide one such deterrent. It is not the submarines themselves but rather what they represent that underscores the change in Australia’s thinking. Moving forward, Australia will expand its role in the region by fielding greater capabilities, hosting more allied and partner forces, exhibiting a greater presence, and taking on an enlarged role for ensuring regional stability.

Meanwhile Britain, in the wake of Brexit and diminishment of its involvement in European affairs, has been eager to redefine its role in global affairs. London adopted the language of a “global Britain in a competitive age,” and it has repeatedly signaled its newfound focus on the Indo-Pacific region. And while there has been talk of Britain joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership or perhaps augmenting Japan, Australia, India, and the United States in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, this new arrangement has the potential to lock in and incentivize a greater and more sustained British presence in Asia.

AUKUS fundamentally steps up cooperation among its members—which was already at a strong baseline. There are few countries whose militaries and strategic cultures are quite as synched. Not only have the United States and Australia fought together in every major conflict of the past century—even, to most Australians’ regret, Vietnam—but Australia also hosts a rotational deployment of 2,500 U.S. Marines in Darwin and serves as the location for key intelligence facilities. Moreover, combat training, interoperability, and intelligence coordination between the two nations are as close today as they have ever been.

But, as close as this relationship is, AUKUS will push the two countries even closer. This includes an expansion of Australia’s maritime and air force bases, an enlargement of allied logistical capacity, a shift and augmentation in the type of American military presence in Australia, an increase in allied maritime and aerial presence in the region, the integration of supply chains for defense production, the growth of a defense industrial base in both countries, and the deeper integration of strategic technologies. Some of these policy shifts were mentioned explicitly; others were implied in last week’s joint leaders’ statement on AUKUS. In fact, the groundwork for many of these was undertaken not just in the run-up to last week’s dramatic announcement but over the past 18 months.

Looming over all this are the questions of whether this new partnership can deter further acts of Chinese aggression and enhance regional security. Some analysts have noted that this move is likely to heighten tensions with Beijing. That assessment is likely correct, and yet the agreement was deemed necessary. Other commentators have gone further, declaring AUKUS an unnecessary and counterproductive provocation of Beijing. Such claims are harder to justify, as they reverse cause and effect, ignoring that AUKUS is a direct result of China’s increasingly provocative actions.

Whether the new defense partnership among Canberra, Washington, and London can actually deliver on its promise will partially be dictated by the momentum and speed of the partners’ follow-up. But it will also be determined by the degree to which other countries join in similar efforts, develop nonmilitary collaborations, and play a more active role pushing back against Beijing’s destabilizing actions.

Increasing allied military and technological cooperation in such a dramatic fashion demonstrates that the United States takes the region’s security seriously. But as bold as it is, it is still only a partial strategy. The military balance in the Indo-Pacific might well rest on how quickly AUKUS can move from concept to reality. But the challenges posed by China will go far beyond that.
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Re: All things: China

Post by malchior »

Max Peck wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:33 am She's almost certainly not going to stand trial. If she complies with the terms of the deferred prosecution agreement, then the charges will be dropped next year.
Fair enough. Civil penalties or fines are more likely.
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Re: All things: China

Post by Max Peck »

China also released a couple of American hostages.

China lets US siblings return home after three years
Two American siblings banned from leaving China for the last three years have been allowed to go home.

Cynthia and Victor Liu, along with their mother, were accused of "economic crimes" while on a visit to China.

They said Chinese authorities restricted them to lure their father back to face fraud charges.

The latest move coincides with the high-profile release of Chinese tech executive Meng Wanzhou and two Canadians over the weekend.

Critics have in the past accused China of using ordinary citizens as political bargaining chips, in what is known as "hostage diplomacy". China has always denied this.
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Re: All things: China

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Canada's grocery chains stocked with tomato products connected to Chinese forced labour
Canadian consumers who purchase popular tomato pastes, sauces and ketchups may actually be buying products harvested and manufactured by Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities under oppressive working conditions in China, according to a CBC Marketplace investigation.

Marketplace, in collaboration with the Investigative Reporting Project Italy — a non-profit media association — and The Guardian, found some of the world's biggest grocers, including ones here in Canada, are stocked with tomato products that could be tied to forced labour in Xinjiang, a remote area of western China where Uyghurs are subjected to mass detention, surveillance and torture by the Chinese government, in what many countries have labelled a genocide.

"This is such a moral failure on the side of these companies," said Adrian Zenz, senior fellow in China studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation.

Zenz said the "risk of forced labour is endemic and systemic" in China's tomato industry and that "it's high time [these companies] increased their awareness."

Marketplace identified several major brands — Nestle, Del Monte and Unilever — that purchased tomatoes from Chinese companies in Xinjiang, processed them in intermediary countries like Pakistan, the Philippines and India, and shipped them internationally to be eventually sold at Canadian grocery stores like Walmart and T&T.

But a Canadian consumer may never know the true origins of that tomato product by looking at the label because regulations don't require a company to disclose the entire geographical makeup of the raw material — only which country it was last processed in.
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Re: All things: China

Post by raydude »

Anonymous Bosch wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:44 pm China Has Only Itself to Blame for AUKUS
foreignpolicy.com wrote:The trilateral partnership was an inevitable result of Beijing’s military growth.

Late last week, the White House announced the creation of a new trilateral defense partnership among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. At the heart of this new partnership, known as AUKUS, was the announcement that Washington and London would help Canberra develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines.
Well, it's not that hard for China to remedy this. All they have to do is secretly back a leader who believes foreign policy is a zero-sum game and that other countries only seek to better themselves at the expense of making America Great again.
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Re: All things: China

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNN
The Biden administration is expected to announce this week that no US government officials will attend the 2022 Beijing Olympics, implementing a diplomatic boycott of the games, according to several sources.

The move would allow the US to send a message on the world stage to China without preventing US athletes from competing. The National Security Council, which has been privately discussing the boycott, declined to comment.
...
In response to the news, Beijing warned it would take "resolute countermeasures" against the Biden administration if the diplomatic boycott went ahead.
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Re: All things: China

Post by Grifman »

China is upset that the WTA has pulled women's tennis from China but they can't and aren't saying anything to their own people because then they would have to explain why. They've blocked all mention of this on the Chinese internet :)
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Re: All things: China

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That'll show 'em!
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Re: All things: China

Post by malchior »

Well guess that settles that. Just a misunderstanding!

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Re: All things: China

Post by LordMortis »

malchior wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:41 pm Well guess that settles that. Just a misunderstanding!

So she went into media blackout mode for a month as did the Chinese state while the people around her livlihood and theirs came out for her and now it's just a misunderstanding? Sure.
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Re: All things: China

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Lockdowns produces a dystopian nightmare in Shanghai:

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Re: All things: China

Post by Max Peck »

I'm not convinced that being in PRC is ever not a dystopian nightmare to some degree.
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Re: All things: China

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Max Peck wrote: Sat Apr 09, 2022 9:56 am I'm not convinced that being in PRC is ever not a dystopian nightmare to some degree.
I forgot to call it "a box of pure malevolent evil, a purveyor of
insidious insanity, an eldritch manifestation that would make Bill
Gates let out a low whistle of admiration," but it's all those, too.
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Re: All things: China

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The dangers in China:



The Chinese food chain has very little slack, but the inevitable loosening of Covid restrictions will lead to many deaths.
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Re: All things: China

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Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: All things: China

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Seals? In Wuhan they're welding the doors of apartment buildings shut.
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Re: All things: China

Post by Daehawk »

Posted this over inthe Covid thread a few days ago but think it can go here too. This is from one of the guys who lived there for over a decade.

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Re: All things: China

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Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: All things: China

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Re: All things: China

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The commitment to which may end on January 20, 2025.
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Re: All things: China

Post by El Guapo »

What's crazy is that it sounds like this is another area where Biden is not totally in step with his foreign policy people, who seem to be backpedalling / trying to put some ambiguity back into U.S. foreign policy in this area. So it's not 100% clear whether this is current U.S. policy or not. Probably?
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Re: All things: China

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This is another case where Biden tells the truth in a way that pretty much everyone would prefer that he not do. Don't get me wrong, I much prefer this particular weakness to those of his predecessor, but it IS a problem. The President of the most powerful nation in the world must always choose his words EXTREMELY carefully.
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Re: All things: China

Post by Octavious »

Ya this wasn't exactly the smartest thing to say IMHO. China is already rattling their sabers. :P
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Re: All things: China

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 11:22 amSo it's not 100% clear whether this is current U.S. policy or not. Probably?
The problem in foreign policy matter the words coming out of his mouth are definitionally official policy. But where the rubber meets the road in the FP policy body you'll get squishy results that'll look like backpedaling until either the President clarifies or they get in line. In any case, this was not artful at all and the Chinese are pragmatic. The real problem is they'll make noise about it to put pressure on something else for leverage. And we'll probably let that work.
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Re: All things: China

Post by Grifman »

China is getting pretty pissy about Pelosi visiting Taiwan. I question the timing - we have enough on our hands right now without having to worry about China:

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Re: All things: China

Post by malchior »

I'm pretty confused about the whole thing. We had the kerfuffle back in May over Taiwan so someone thought now would be a good time to send over the Speaker of the House?! We deserve to understand the genesis for this bad idea.
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Re: All things: China

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malchior wrote: Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:05 am I'm pretty confused about the whole thing. We had the kerfuffle back in May over Taiwan so someone thought now would be a good time to send over the Speaker of the House?! We deserve to understand the genesis for this bad idea.
It's not a case of the US government sending Pelosi to Taiwan. This is solely a Pelosi trip for whatever political currency that I fail to see at the moment. It's more Dem party manufactured bullshit complications that is completely unavoidable. And now if she "backs down" she will look weak.and I can foresee some no name Republican politicians booking their tickets to Taiwan to show how they stood up to China... unless they represent states with substantial Chinese investment. California is a pretty important market but I could certainly see some Chinese investment consortium telling some politicians from the Midwest who may decide to visit Taiwan that "Upon reflection we think it's not a good time to invest in your factories at the moment." And actually all the Republicans need to do is sit back and mock Pelosi.
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Re: All things: China

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$iljanus wrote: Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:39 amIt's not a case of the US government sending Pelosi to Taiwan. This is solely a Pelosi trip for whatever political currency that I fail to see at the moment.
Yeah didn't mean to leave the impression this is an official US sanctioned trip. In fact, it's the opposite. Biden can't stop her but he acting as Head of State recommended she not go.
It's more Dem party manufactured bullshit complications that is completely unavoidable. And now if she "backs down" she will look weak.and I can foresee some no name Republican politicians booking their tickets to Taiwan to show how they stood up to China... unless they represent states with substantial Chinese investment. California is a pretty important market but I could certainly see some Chinese investment consortium telling some politicians from the Midwest who may decide to visit Taiwan that "Upon reflection we think it's not a good time to invest in your factories at the moment." And actually all the Republicans need to do is sit back and mock Pelosi.
Yep. This is my confusion. She had the trip planned earlier in the year. Still unwise but not as fraught with tension. It got kiboshed when she got COVID. Then we had a kerfuffle with them. And then she still decided to go? I don't get it but I find myself openly wondering why any of these folks do anything anymore. It feels like a vanity project, farewell tour, but ultimately not something that benefits us.
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Re: All things: China

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Just saber rattling? We can only hope:

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Re: All things: China

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Re: All things: China

Post by Grifman »


I have also read that two large dual use ferries have been diverted from their civilian routes to potential embarkation points.
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Re: All things: China

Post by malchior »

The flight is on the way - about 2 hours in so far. The route they took is cautious as you'd expect. The usual route from Kuala Lampur to Taipei is directly NNE over the South China Sea. The flight is instead proceeding East over Indonesia, probably to the East of the Phillipines and approaching Taiwan from its SSE.

Edit: The normally 4.5 hour flight is now approaching 5 hours with 2-3 hours still to go as they take this long route to Taiwan.
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Re: All things: China

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Are they coming for Pelosi?
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Re: All things: China

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Unlikely. They are putting on a show.
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Re: All things: China

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Re: All things: China

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Re: All things: China

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Worst case they use it as a pretext to pull a Russia and invade Taiwan (after Pelosi leaves). More likely case is they continue buildups and exercises and keep rattling sabres.
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Re: All things: China

Post by Kurth »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:01 pm Worst case they use it as a pretext to pull a Russia and invade Taiwan (after Pelosi leaves). More likely case is they continue buildups and exercises and keep rattling sabres.
Not saying you're saying this, but invading Ukraine is not the same thing as invading Taiwan.
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