Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

[Pyperkub]

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has released an analysis on the costs of the major candidate's health plans

As part of our US Budget Watch 2020 project, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has analyzed the plans of the four candidates polling the highest in the majority of national polls and polls in the first four primary states: Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Bernie Sanders, and Senator Elizabeth Warren.

For each plan, we score the fiscal impact of coverage and other spending provisions, reductions in current and proposed health care costs, direct offsets proposed as part of their plans to expand coverage, and further offsets meant to finance remaining costs. We focus on federal fiscal impact rather than the effect on total national health expenditures.

Our estimates are rough and rounded, based on our best understanding of how campaign-level detail translates into specific policies, and subject to change as more details are made available.2 This report is for educational purposes and does not represent an endorsement of any candidate or any policy. It will be followed by further analysis of the candidates’ tax and spending proposals in the coming months.

No mention of the benefits is always crap analysis.

[Pyperkub]

Here is what I find frustrating. Now I know this is not a new frustration, but this is the only place to put it.

There are some candidates I like more than others, I can make a effort to decide which one best represents me, and attempt to get that person elected. Thats the promise of democracy I learned in elementary school.

But here we are in the real world, The state I live in will go all in for the democrat, regardless of which democrat ends up on top. Thats just how it is. I could use my vote for a third party, in an attempt to hopefully spread the field in a future election. But there are real, immediate, and significant consequences for a republican victory, so I will spend my vote for a democrat.

But I don't even get the luxury of choosing which democrat candidate best represents me. Please allow me to explain. My state will go all in with electoral college for whichever democrat is on top, regardless of which one it is. Thats just the reality of it. So the only way to make a difference is to support a candidate that will appeal to voters in one of the so called "swing states" such as Florida, Iowa, etc in an effort to garner votes there. So my only option for affecting the outcome of this election is to try and figure out which of the candidates is most likely to appeal to Florida Man, Retirees, and Midwesterners?, all of whom I know very little about and have no connection to.

That is why I am frustrated.

Vote for the candidate whom you believe has the most character and integrity, then vote on policy if you are not certain yet.

It's what will make the most difference now.

[malchior]

Biden doubling down on empty hope.

Former Vice President Joe Biden said the impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump haven't "shaken my faith" with regards to working with Republicans, adding that "no one's" found that his son Hunter Biden did anything untoward in Ukraine.

Impeachment "hasn't shaken my faith in being able to work with at least" some Republicans, Biden told "TODAY" show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie in an exclusive interview ahead of Monday's Iowa caucuses.

"I think you're going to see the world change with [President Donald] Trump gone," Biden added.

These Republicans!

Senator Joni Ernst said the impeachment of President Trump has opened the door for Republicans to follow suit if Joe Biden were to win the presidency.

“I think this door of impeachable whatever has been opened,” the Republican senator from Iowa told Bloomberg News on Sunday.

Ernst then specifically warned Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

“Joe Biden should be very careful what he’s asking for because, you know, we can have a situation where if it should ever be President Biden, that immediately, people right the day after he would be elected would be saying, ‘Well, we’re going to impeach him,’” Ernst said.

Ernst explained that an impeachment case against Biden could be made “for being assigned to take on Ukrainian corruption yet turning a blind eye to Burisma because his son was on the board making over a million dollars a year” during his time as vice president under Obama.

[YellowKing]

I'd rather have someone who is at least willing to entertain the prospect of working with Republicans than continuing the hardline partisan stalemate we currently find ourselves in.

Working with does not mean "giving in to."

[Kurth]

I'd rather have someone who is at least willing to entertain the prospect of working with Republicans than continuing the hardline partisan stalemate we currently find ourselves in.

Working with does not mean "giving in to."

You, me, and most of America, I firmly believe.

[malchior]

I'd rather have someone who is at least willing to entertain the prospect of working with Republicans than continuing the hardline partisan stalemate we currently find ourselves in.

Working with does not mean "giving in to."

You, me, and most of America, I firmly believe.

I wish it to be true too but it is pure fantasy. I don't know the answer but I'm dead sure this isn't the time for nice guys and false hope. People have to realize that we aren't going to get better just because Trump is gone. The whole system is rotting.

[gilraen]

I'd rather have someone who is at least willing to entertain the prospect of working with Republicans than continuing the hardline partisan stalemate we currently find ourselves in.

Obama tried that in earnest. How'd that work out for him?

[LordMortis]

While I do think Obama has been the best president in my lifetime (or political awareness lifetime), I don't know how much he tried to work with Republicans even if he may have wanted to. I remember "get in the back seat while Americans and Democrats drive" around the first midterms. Of course, the GOP obstructed from day 1, so the partisan gauntlet was laid down and made it pretty clear efforts "to reach across the aisle" would be wasted.

Clinton, I think, tried to work with the GOP in earnest, and that didn't work out for him. From my narrow vision into our timeline, that was where the ball really started rolling, even if I didn't see it at the time.

[noxiousdog]

I remember "get in the back seat while Americans and Democrats drive" around the first midterms.

That's the Republican spin, but that's not what he said.

Finally we got this car up on level ground. And, yes, it's a little beat up. It needs to go to the body shop. It's got some dents; it needs a tune-up. But it's pointing in the right direction. And now we've got the Republicans tapping us on the shoulder, saying, we want the keys back.

You can't have the keys back. You don't know how to drive. You can ride with us if you want, but you got to sit in the backseat. We're going to put middle-class America in the front seat. We're looking out for them.

[YellowKing]

Obama tried that in earnest. How'd that work out for him?

Biden has a history with most of these senators that Obama did not.

I'd rather the onus of obstructionism be on the Republicans, not the Democratic President. Because if the Democrats take office with that attitude, they're no better than Trump. We should be better than that.

[malchior]

Obama tried that in earnest. How'd that work out for him?

Biden has a history with most of these senators that Obama did not.

I'd rather the onus of obstructionism be on the Republicans, not the Democratic President. Because if the Democrats take office with that attitude, they're no better than Trump. We should be better than that.

The idea that the problem is that the relationship was an issue is a big gap here. The GOP do not recognize the legitimacy of the Democratic party as a partner or ruling body. They seek a radical one party state but Joe is going to fix that?!? This is a complete fantasy.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

f you're a Democrat and could wave a magic wand

that would nominate any candidate for 2020, who you would pick? New polling by @Civiqs
@DataProgress
says:

***Elizabeth Warren***

That was true in June 2019, as well.

An interesting new poll. The gist (at least how I read it) is a lot of people are voting for Biden because they believe he is the most electable, although he is not their first choice. On the flip side, Elizabeth Warren is the candidate more people want than any other, but they aren't voting for her because they don't think she's electable.

[Jaymann]

Starting this year California is allowing everyone to mail in their ballot. A brilliant way to combat voter suppression.

[Kurth]

Starting this year California is allowing everyone to mail in their ballot. A brilliant way to combat voter suppression.

OR has been doing this for years. This plus motor voter registration just makes sense.

[LordMortis]

Starting this year California is allowing everyone to mail in their ballot. A brilliant way to combat voter suppression.

Michigan as well. The GOP fought against this tooth and nail, as they did with the anti-gerrymandering law. The GOP have fought for only military and elderly and out of town work as viable absentee ballot voting. Somehow we won.

Dance!!!

https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-1 ... --,00.html

[Defiant]

[hitbyambulance]

Starting this year California is allowing everyone to mail in their ballot. A brilliant way to combat voter suppression.

Michigan as well. The GOP fought against this tooth and nail, as they did with the anti-gerrymandering law. The GOP have fought for only military and elderly and out of town work as viable absentee ballot voting. Somehow we won.

Dance!!!

https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-1 ... --,00.html

Washington (the state of) has been doing this for years

[hepcat]

Trump has completely dropped any semblance of wanting to repair the rift in our nation and now just openly declares anyone who doesn’t follow him the enemy. That’s my takeaway from last night’s speech.

I’m pretty sure he’ll be re-elected at this point.

[LordMortis]

Trump has completely dropped any semblance of wanting to repair the rift in our nation and now just openly declares anyone who doesn’t follow him the enemy. That’s my takeaway from last night’s speech.

I’m pretty sure he’ll be re-elected at this point.

In some respects I don't blame him. There is nothing he can do win me over. The people I blame are the people who support him and it's hard letting go of people you love over this because they empower a man who empowers hatred and takes brazen corruption to a level I've never seen and that spell is just unbreakable (or is so far as my efforts have gone)

[Defiant]

[YellowKing]

and it's hard letting go of people you love over this because they empower a man who empowers hatred and takes brazen corruption to a level I've never seen

My family knows better than to talk politics these days with me, but on the rare occasions Trump does come up, I've taken the "politics aside" route. That is, I explained that my major problem with Trump is that I don't agree with his character. I don't agree with the way he paid for abortions to cover up affairs, cheated on his wife with porn stars, values money over humanity, can't speak the truth, engaged in shady business deals for decades, etc. I feel like he's a bad example to my kids with his practice of mocking other people and races, and his constant bullying. And furthermore, I wouldn't support a Democratic candidate like that either.

That usually shuts them up.

[raydude]

and it's hard letting go of people you love over this because they empower a man who empowers hatred and takes brazen corruption to a level I've never seen

My family knows better than to talk politics these days with me, but on the rare occasions Trump does come up, I've taken the "politics aside" route. That is, I explained that my major problem with Trump is that I don't agree with his character. I don't agree with the way he paid for abortions to cover up affairs, cheated on his wife with porn stars, values money over humanity, can't speak the truth, engaged in shady business deals for decades, etc. I feel like he's a bad example to my kids with his practice of mocking other people and races, and his constant bullying. And furthermore, I wouldn't support a Democratic candidate like that either.

That usually shuts them up.

[noxiousdog]

538 now has Sanders leading with a 50% chance of the nomination.

People are insane.

[Defiant]

Yeah.

[Holman]

538 now has Sanders leading with a 50% chance of the nomination.

People are insane.

It's waaaay too early (as 538 will tell you themselves) for such a projection to be anything but an assessment of the current state of play.

A single caucus just now jumbled up that very model, and there's no reason to expect the 50+ remaining primaries to behave as predicted.

[noxiousdog]

538 now has Sanders leading with a 50% chance of the nomination.

People are insane.

It's waaaay too early (as 538 will tell you themselves) for such a projection to be anything but an assessment of the current state of play.

A single caucus just now jumbled up that very model, and there's no reason to expect the 50+ remaining primaries to behave as predicted.

Yes, but that's how a model works. That disastrous showing by Biden influences all the remaining primaries. It doesn't mean the model is correct, but it is likely better than guessing.

[hepcat]

Color me surprised to witness this (what appears to be) momentous decline of Biden's campaign.

[stimpy]

Color me surprised to witness this (what appears to be) momentous decline of Biden's campaign.

I'm trying to figure out just where he went wrong.
No major stumbles that I can think of, other than he represents more of the same from the Dems.
At least Warren, Bernie and Pete are touting change of some sort, even if not particularly popular.

[malchior]

What we now see is the outcome that demonstrates pros and cons of the Iowa caucus. It weighs heavily on the ability to get people excited and push them into a room for hours on end. In years past, the poles weren't as pole-y (err) so someone that far to the left wasn't viable. Now he is and the caucus essentially shows that there is a pretty strong alignment around two major camps. Progressives and centrists.

If the Democratic party had any sense they'd gravitate towards Warren who could bridge both. Not that she isn't a flawed candidate but the Democrats need to build a tent that is broad and solid. Neither Sanders or Pete will deliver that IMO. Anyway the safe history to go with is that the Democrats are inept and seem intent on finding new ways to seize disaster from the jaws of triumph. In the choice between the divisive, 70+ year who just had a heart attack or the barely legal (Presidentially speaking!) Buttigieg who African Americans dislike, they may end up with a candidate that ensures Trump will win by the skin of his teeth again.

[Jaymann]

Bernie may be in the rare position of getting Trump elected - twice!

[Kurth]

Sanders as the Dem challenger is a disaster and guarantees 4 more years if MAGA. But, honestly, none of the other candidates are all that great either. All are terribly flawed.

Why has the Democratic field withered to these weak candidates?

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I wouldn't assume Biden's campaign is dead; they've known for awhile now that he was unlikely to win Iowa or New Hampshire. More telling would be if he doesn't win or perform as expected in SC or Nevada.

[malchior]

I wouldn't assume Biden's campaign is dead; they've known for awhile now that he was unlikely to win Iowa or New Hampshire. More telling would be if he doesn't win or perform as expected in SC or Nevada.

Biden had a 31(!!) point lead at one point and has just a 5-point edge on Sanders now. In any case, his biggest problem may become fund-raising. The Biden campaign predicted far better results to key donors than were actually achieved in Iowa. He is definitely wounded but probably still in the game.

[Smoove_B]

Plus Trump was just FULLY EXONERATED by the Senate which means Hunter Biden is a criminal and Joe Biden is a corrupt, invalid candidate.

[malchior]

Plus Trump was just FULLY EXONERATED by the Senate which means Hunter Biden is a criminal and Joe Biden is a corrupt, invalid candidate.

Funny enough the Treasury just sent 'records' on Hunter Biden to the Senate Judiciary committee. Let me guess...tax returns. Fucking hypocrites.

[Kraken]

Bernie may be in the rare position of getting Trump elected - twice!

He isn't going to sweep the undecideds or strip away any Republicans. That's Biden's strategy, not Bernie's. Rather, Bernie needs and intends to grow the liberal base by exciting alienated non-voters (Joe Biden doesn't excite anybody). If turnout surges, that indicates that Sanders' strategy is working. There are far more non-voters than wobbly voters.

Unfortunately for Bernie, turnout in IA was underwhelming. But I think we're agreed that IA isn't a bellwether. NH probably won't be, either, since Sanders had already mobilized his troops there in 2016.

I still think Warren has the best chance of combining those two strategies, but apparently Democrats don't agree with me. Keeping a foot in each camp means she's not the favorite of either.

[noxiousdog]

Bernie is going to push moderates back to Republicans. Even if there's folks that can't stand Trump, there's going to be folks who refuse to vote for president and then vote for Republican congressmen to balance Sanders.

[Defiant]

Yep.

And the claim that there are a large chunk of non-voters that will start voting with him in the race is an illusion. Voter turnout in the past century has never been higher than 63.8, and it was 60.1 last time.

[Smoove_B]

Bernie is going to push moderates back to Republicans. Even if there's folks that can't stand Trump, there's going to be folks who refuse to vote for president and then vote for Republican congressmen to balance Sanders.

That's not entirely true. They also seemingly like Tulsi Gabbard - perfectly reasonable pivot. Regardless, the article is an interesting slice of Bernie supporters. I always appreciate these types of articles because I'm not a rabid supporter of any politician.

[noxiousdog]

Bernie is going to push moderates back to Republicans. Even if there's folks that can't stand Trump, there's going to be folks who refuse to vote for president and then vote for Republican congressmen to balance Sanders.

That's not entirely true. They also seemingly like Tulsi Gabbard - perfectly reasonable pivot. Regardless, the article is an interesting slice of Bernie supporters. I always appreciate these types of articles because I'm not a rabid supporter of any politician.

I'm talking about conservative folks who will vote for almost anyone over Trump. I'd put myself in that category, but there's zero chance of me voting for a Republican without a complete revamp of the party and platform. I'd wager George Conway, for example, would not be able to vote for Sanders. Call it educated conservatives with scruples?