Ukraine

[GreenGoo]

Israel benefits from having treaty obligations and established funding. Ukraine doesn’t qualify, and needs its temporary funding authorization.

This. The reason Israel can receive funds while Ukraine can't is because Israel is Israel and the Ukraine is the Ukraine. They aren't the same and they do not share the same level of treaty and alliance relationship with the US.

[Alefroth]

Russia is flush with cash thanks to oil sales to India. I wonder why we let that proceed.

[Carpet_pissr]

Russia is flush with cash thanks to oil sales to India. I wonder why we let that proceed.

Wasn’t in violation of the sanctions if that’s what you’re suggesting. Unless you mean trying to use soft power in the background.

[Alefroth]

Mostly wondering why it's not sanctioned. Seems like a pretty glaring hole and makes the other sanctions less meaningful.

[LordMortis]

Russia is flush with cash thanks to oil sales to India. I wonder why we let that proceed.

To take pressure off Europe's need for Russian oil and to keep the global prices down. Right or wrong. Also, India is a tenuous ally at best. We can only slightly more ask them to work against Russian interests than we can China. AFAICT the reason we can more-so ask them is to be a market for their exports.

[El Guapo]

Russia is flush with cash thanks to oil sales to India. I wonder why we let that proceed.

To take pressure off Europe's need for Russian oil and to keep the global prices down. Right or wrong. Also, India is a tenuous ally at best. We can only slightly more ask them to work against Russian interests than we can China. AFAICT the reason we can more-so ask them is to be a market for their exports.

I also saw something that a lot of those exports are hung up because Russia wants India to pay in rubles but India won't, I think for sanctions related reasons.

[LawBeefaroni]

Russia is flush with cash thanks to oil sales to India. I wonder why we let that proceed.

To take pressure off Europe's need for Russian oil and to keep the global prices down. Right or wrong. Also, India is a tenuous ally at best. We can only slightly more ask them to work against Russian interests than we can China. AFAICT the reason we can more-so ask them is to be a market for their exports.

I also saw something that a lot of those exports are hung up because Russia wants India to pay in rubles but India won't, I think for sanctions related reasons.

As hard as they try, the just BRICs can't get the world off the dollar.



Ever hear of the SCO?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic, international security and defence organization established by China and Russia in 2001. It is the world's largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 80% of the area of Eurasia and 40% of the world population. As of 2021, its combined GDP was around 20% of global GDP.

The SCO is the successor to the Shanghai Five, formed in 1996 between the People's Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. In June 2001, the leaders of these nations and Uzbekistan met in Shanghai to announce a new organization with deeper political and economic cooperation. In June 2017, it expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan. Iran joined the group in July 2023. Several countries are engaged as observers or dialogue partners.

No Brazil but they added Pakistan. PRICS?

[LawBeefaroni]

Poland not brooking Russia's nonsense.




and then

WARSAW, Feb 24 (Reuters)

- A pile of dung was dumped outside the home of Moscow's ambassador to Poland on Saturday as protesters marked the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Hundreds of people also gathered outside the Russian embassy in Warsaw.

[Jaymann]

No wonder Hitler had to invade them.

[Alefroth]

It's finally done. Well done, Vlad.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... 024-02-26/

Hungary's parliament approved Sweden's NATO accession on Monday, clearing the last hurdle before the historic step by the Nordic country whose neutrality lasted through two world wars and the simmering conflict of the Cold War.

[hepcat]

I wonder if Putin is currently doing the Curly shuffle on the floor of his private island mansion?

[Alefroth]

We can only hope.

[waitingtoconnect]

It's finally done. Well done, Vlad.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... 024-02-26/

Hungary's parliament approved Sweden's NATO accession on Monday, clearing the last hurdle before the historic step by the Nordic country whose neutrality lasted through two world wars and the simmering conflict of the Cold War.

It’s not over - if trump wins or even if he doesn’t us participation is no longer a certainty

[Alefroth]

It's finally done. Well done, Vlad.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... 024-02-26/

Hungary's parliament approved Sweden's NATO accession on Monday, clearing the last hurdle before the historic step by the Nordic country whose neutrality lasted through two world wars and the simmering conflict of the Cold War.

It’s not over - if trump wins or even if he doesn’t us participation is no longer a certainty

It's over. Trump can't do anything about Sweden being in NATO.

[El Guapo]

It's finally done. Well done, Vlad.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... 024-02-26/

Hungary's parliament approved Sweden's NATO accession on Monday, clearing the last hurdle before the historic step by the Nordic country whose neutrality lasted through two world wars and the simmering conflict of the Cold War.

It’s not over - if trump wins or even if he doesn’t us participation is no longer a certainty

It's over. Trump can't do anything about Sweden being in NATO.

Yes, that's right. Sweden's in NATO for good. Now of course if Trump wins and pulls the U.S. out of NATO (still insane to write that sentence) then the impact of that will vastly overshadow Sweden being in. I do wonder the full fallout of that - presumably that means a more aggressive Russia, though I also assume that would be an earthquake in European foreign policy that would among other things lead to much higher military spending in Europe and a more independent foreign policy.

Who knows - hopefully we won't find out.

[Daehawk]

Even if the next President puts us back in NATO no one will trust the US due to having swings every 4 years. The US as of now is untrustworthy in the world ..and to me.

[Alefroth]

Congress did recently pass legislation that would require congressional approval to leave NATO, but yeah, hopefully we never need to test that.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/politics ... index.html

Lawmakers from both parties last December may have been anticipating former President Donald Trump’s current NATO trash talk when they quietly slipped language limiting a president’s power to pull the US out the alliance into the annual defense policy bill, which passed with bipartisan support.

[Max Peck]

Ukraine war: Kyiv says seven dead as drone attack sinks Russian ship

Ukrainian intelligence says seven people have been killed and six more injured after a Russian patrol ship was hit and sunk in a sea drone attack.

The Sergei Kotov was allegedly hit in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

Ukraine's military intelligence service said the Black Sea fleet ship suffered damage to the stern as well as right and left sides.

The Kremlin is yet to comment, but some Russian bloggers confirmed the sinking of the Sergei Kotov.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the extent of damage to the ship.

In a Telegram post Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said 52 crew members were evacuated.

The Sergei Kotov is one of four patrol ships completed for the Russian Navy's Project 22160. It had previously been attacked by Ukraine in September last year.

"Right now this ship is on the seabed," Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said, adding a helicopter may have been on board.

According to Ukraine, the vessel played a part in the attack on Snake Island on the first day of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, along with the Moskva cruiser.

The Moskva was sunk by Ukraine in 2022.

Some video of the attack:

[Grifman]

Fascinating video of Marcon’s conversation with Putin on the eve of the Russian invasion:



Transcript here:

https://babel.ua/en/news/80618-bloodbat ... e-invasion

[Carpet_pissr]

That is fascinating and I have often wondered how world leaders REALLY talk to one another in private (although I assume both sides knew that multiple aides (and of course translators) were listening to the call in real-time.

[Zarathud]

Putin: I’ve stalled you long enough, so you plan to prepare a joint statement while I go play hockey and forget this conversation ever happened.

[Carpet_pissr]

Putin: I’ve stalled you long enough, so you plan to prepare a joint statement while I go play hockey and forget this conversation ever happened.

LOL, yeah...I thought that was hilarious/alarming. Telling that Macron didn't even respond to that, because at that point he probably realized his call was futile. All that remained was to just go through the typical patterns of diplomacy to check the boxes, but shit was going down and nothing he could do to stop it.

[Punisher]

Questions.
1.is Ukraine part of Nato?
2a. If so why aren't we doing more?
2b. If not what would it take for them to join?
3. Regardless of above is the threat of nuclear weapons the only reason the we and our allies aren't doing more?

[LordMortis]

1.is Ukraine part of Nato?

No. Until this last invasion, Ukraine becoming part of NATO wasn't a consideration as Russia would have always considered that an act of war. Even as they annexed the Crimea peninsula NATO was hands off.

2b. If not what would it take for them to join?

Peace with Russia and Putin's Russia not going right back to war with NATO for what Putin would treat as annexing part of Russian territory.

3. Regardless of above is the threat of nuclear weapons the only reason the we and our allies aren't doing more?

It's a reason but not the only reason. Turing to a hot war with Russia has been off the table for longer than I have been alive. Then there is what happens to relations with China, North Korea, and Iran if we turn to a hot war with Russia. And then there is, you know, domestic lives lost... This totally leaves out the idea that in the US, the GOP seems to be largely influenced by Putin and his cronies. Look no further than Florida, Texas, Kentucky, and even New York to see how Russian Oligarchs are taking hold.

[Punisher]

Let's assume russia wins eventually. Is the consensus that it will end there or are they likely to continue with another country.
I ask because I'm wondering at what point it resembles that, poem i think, about when they finally come for me there was no one left...or something like that.

[Kraken]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

[LawBeefaroni]

The threat of nukes is overstated by Russia. Yes, I think Putin is unstable but he likes the finer things. He knows those go away when nukes start getting tossed around.

He loves to threaten but at this point, short of NATO going on the offense against Russia in Russia, I really don't see the threat being real anymore.



Other news, Greece is sending additional support. Probably not coincidentally not long after Russia decided to try to blow up Zelenskyy when he was meeting with the Greek PM.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/12341 ... g-ukraine/

Athens has notified the European Union officials in charge of coordinating assistance to Kyiv that it can supply Ukraine with ammunition this year through the Czech Republic, namely 2,000 5-inch Zuni rockets; 180 2.75-inch rockets, used in Ukraine’s successful anti-tank warfare and close to the top of the list of Ukrainian requests; 90,000 90mm projectiles, also used in anti-tank warfare, as well as anti-aircraft weapons; 4 million bullets; and 70 M114A1 US-made 155mm howitzers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/greeces ... ent-2024-3

Greece is reconsidering sending Ukraine its Russian-made S-300 air defense missiles, a turnabout that comes after a Russian military struck close to its leader during a visit to Ukraine. Ukraine would undoubtedly welcome any potential transfer since its air defenses are under tremendous strain from unrelenting Russian bombardments.

[El Guapo]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

[Jaymann]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

[Unagi]

If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

I feel like pointing out that the scorpion also had little choice but to wait until he and the frog reached the other shore of the river.

[El Guapo]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

Probably. First, you have to bear in mind that when Trump is talking about other NATO countries not paying, it's not money that they owe to the United States or to NATO. It's that they're not spending the required amount of their budgets on their military. And I doubt Trump is going to know or care about the details of that. Second, Trump is essentially a creature of Russian propaganda at this point. He just thinks "NATO bad".

Now, there is a law on the books now requiring congressional approval to withdraw from NATO. So it does matter whether Democrats hold either house of Congress, whether any Republicans would defy Trump on NATO (unlikely, but not out of the question), and/or whether Trump just ignores that law.

[Unagi]

Some good news, brought to you by the GOP...



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ed1f&ei=23

In a notable strategic pivot, House Republicans have relented on their insistence to tie border security measures to the passage of Ukraine aid, signaling readiness to move forward separately on the defense funding without the previously demanded immigration reform conditions.

[El Guapo]

Some good news, brought to you by the GOP...



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ed1f&ei=23

In a notable strategic pivot, House Republicans have relented on their insistence to tie border security measures to the passage of Ukraine aid, signaling readiness to move forward separately on the defense funding without the previously demanded immigration reform conditions.

Potentially great news, although I won't believe it until it's done.

[Pyperkub]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

In this scenario, I could see Ukraine membership in NATO as a condition.

And I don't think Trump can withdraw from NATO without senate approval, tho he can undermine it even more than he did the first time

[Kraken]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

In this scenario, I could see Ukraine membership in NATO as a condition.

And I don't think Trump can withdraw from NATO without senate approval, tho he can undermine it even more than he did the first time

NATO membership for Ukraine could be a strong bargaining chip. 'Course, NATO has to go along; Ukraine has to meet a set of economic and political conditions to qualify, and they ain't there now.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves if the news about Johnson folding is true. Ukraine can probably hold out at least through the US election if the US reopens the weapons spigot.

[Alefroth]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

I think so. I don't think it's about the money. I think he's just non-cooperative and coming to anyone else's aid doesn't benefit him and isn't America First!

[Punisher]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

I think so. I don't think it's about the money. I think he's just non-cooperative and coming to anyone else's aid doesn't benefit him and isn't America First!

You know theres a small oart of me that hopes it goes like this.
Trump wins.
Trump gets us pulled out of Nato.
The day after that we get invaded. By Russia and their allies to add to the irony.
We start losing.
Trump asks for help.
Nato tells him to pound sand.
I realize this is my version of cutting off my nose to spite my face but still...

Realistically. How much trouble would we be in without Nato backing us up in an invasion scenerio?

[El Guapo]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

I think so. I don't think it's about the money. I think he's just non-cooperative and coming to anyone else's aid doesn't benefit him and isn't America First!

You know theres a small oart of me that hopes it goes like this.
Trump wins.
Trump gets us pulled out of Nato.
The day after that we get invaded. By Russia and their allies to add to the irony.
We start losing.
Trump asks for help.
Nato tells him to pound sand.
I realize this is my version of cutting off my nose to spite my face but still...

Realistically. How much trouble would we be in without Nato backing us up in an invasion scenerio?

If the Russian military can't really conquer Ukraine, there's no way that it can conquer the United States. Nor would Russia have any real interest in trying. It's the Baltic states, Finland, and maybe Poland that are are in the line of fire if Russia really got rolling.

[Kraken]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

I think so. I don't think it's about the money. I think he's just non-cooperative and coming to anyone else's aid doesn't benefit him and isn't America First!

You know theres a small oart of me that hopes it goes like this.
Trump wins.
Trump gets us pulled out of Nato.
The day after that we get invaded. By Russia and their allies to add to the irony.
We start losing.
Trump asks for help.
Nato tells him to pound sand.
I realize this is my version of cutting off my nose to spite my face but still...

Realistically. How much trouble would we be in without Nato backing us up in an invasion scenerio?

If the Russian military can't really conquer Ukraine, there's no way that it can conquer the United States. Nor would Russia have any real interest in trying. It's the Baltic states, Finland, and maybe Poland that are are in the line of fire if Russia really got rolling.

Remember that Cold War doctrine acknowledged that NATO could not stop a Russian invasion with conventional weapons. Nuclear deterrence was baked into the defense of Europe, which is why we never renounced first-strike as a policy. I think that has quietly changed. Ukraine has demonstrated that invading NATO would not be a cakewalk for Russian forces. Fighting with one hand tied behind its back, Ukraine has demonstrated that western weapons and training are up to repelling Russia.

But yeah, the thought of Russia invading the US is just silly. They have their hands full trying to subjugate their weaker, smaller next-door neighbor.

[Blackhawk]

The issue isn't invasions of the US. The issue is that the US won't be standing by to jump in if other nations are invaded. Getting into a shooting war the United States has always been a huge deterrent to certain countries. We screw a lot of stuff up, but one thing we're good at is shooting people.