Ukraine

[LordMortis]

Well, Ukraine doesn't have any oil.

Not bailing on the Kurds once we got involved in a blood for oil war we shouldn't have initially been involved in was the second most justified and important war of my lifetime and we bailed in them again and again.

[Jaymon]

I was trying to be both funny and serious, the reason McCarthy doesn't want to fund this war for freedom, is becuase they don't have oil, unlike the past couple of wars for freedom that USA got involved with where there was plenty of oil.

[Unagi]

I think that the moment Trump was impeached for shaking down Zelenskyy, this war was always going to be “the Democrat’s war”

Before it even actually started.

[LawBeefaroni]

I think that the moment Trump was impeached for shaking down Zelenskyy, this war was always going to be “the Democrat’s war”

Before it even actually started.

Even before that when puppetmaster Putin invaded in 2014. I imagine the 2015-16 meddling was motivated in no small part by Russian imperial ambitions.

[Holman]

I was trying to be both funny and serious, the reason McCarthy doesn't want to fund this war for freedom, is becuase they don't have oil, unlike the past couple of wars for freedom that USA got involved with where there was plenty of oil.

Nah. McCarthy is against Ukraine aid because the MAGA caucus that keep his balls in a locker are against Ukraine aid. And *they* are against Ukraine aid because the loose international Authoritarian far-right movement is Putin-aligned vs liberal democracy.

Also, a win in Ukraine will look like a win for Democrats, and MAGA will do anything to keep that from happening.

[Carpet_pissr]

I was trying to be both funny and serious, the reason McCarthy doesn't want to fund this war for freedom, is becuase they don't have oil, unlike the past couple of wars for freedom that USA got involved with where there was plenty of oil.

Nah. McCarthy is against Ukraine aid because the MAGA caucus that keep his balls in a locker are against Ukraine aid. And *they* are against Ukraine aid because the loose international Authoritarian far-right movement is Putin-aligned vs liberal democracy.

Also, a win in Ukraine will look like a win for Democrats, and MAGA will do anything to keep that from happening.

Completely agree. McCarthy doesn’t give a shit about oil.

You could make the argument that having so many of our so-called leaders so laser-focused on domestic political in-fighting that it’s a net positive for the world.

[waitingtoconnect]

I was trying to be both funny and serious, the reason McCarthy doesn't want to fund this war for freedom, is becuase they don't have oil, unlike the past couple of wars for freedom that USA got involved with where there was plenty of oil.

Ukraine is incredibly rich in resources including natural gas but less so oil.

Putin is invading so he can corner the world market in fertiliser, exportable wheat and natural gas. Also so he can control all possible belt road routes into Europe from China.

There is a lot of opportunity for American firms much more so than in Iraq to make a lot of money. And also no hatred.

[LordMortis]

I was trying to be both funny and serious, the reason McCarthy doesn't want to fund this war for freedom, is becuase they don't have oil, unlike the past couple of wars for freedom that USA got involved with where there was plenty of oil.

Ukraine is incredibly rich in resources including natural gas but less so oil.

Putin is invading so he can corner the world market in fertiliser, exportable wheat and natural gas. Also so he can control all possible belt road routes into Europe from China.

There is a lot of opportunity for American firms much more so than in Iraq to make a lot of money. And also no hatred.

I think it's more simple than that. He wants the USSR back and firmly believes that Ukraine is part of Russia and should bend a knee. MRGA

[waitingtoconnect]

That could well be the case but with Putin the obvious answer isn’t always the right one.

Having been in europe pre 2014 the great fear was that Turkey and Ukraine would join the EU. In the Brexit referendum it was said that Ukrainians were basically criminals and rapists etc much like Trump did with Mexicans. In a more practical sense EU farmers didn’t want Ukrainian agriculture flooding their market or even touching their territory.

They were never getting into the EU and NATO. It wasn’t happening.

But what was happening is Chinese influence in Ukraine and the Shanghai-Odessa-Gdansk belt and road route which was to take Chinese goods into Ukraine and Europe and Ukrainian grain and fertiliser to China. Bypassing Russia.

By 2014 ukraines largest trading partner was no longer Russia or the Eu, it was China. Taking crimea made the Odessa belt and road route untenable.

Russia has always feared an attack by China since the 1960s largely because they annexed 25% of Qing dynasty China in the 18th and 19th centuries and forced the province of Outer Mongolia to be given independence.

The strategic failure of Putin is twofold - that rather than being free of China with a new territory of 40 to 50 million loyal new Russians, Russia is now even more dependent on China than before and Europe is no longer economically dependent on Russian gas. Like Mussolinis Italy invading Greece Putin wanted to be an equal partner with Xi, now he is utterly dependent on him.

From a purely selfish point of view the longer Russia is embroiled in Ukraine the better for the Chinese because it keeps Europe occupied while they can consider when to attack Taiwan. Now only the US and its Asian allies can support it.

Arguably it’s also good for the US because it keeps the EU and Russia busy on its own continent and not acting as a spoiler in the Pacific in particular the French who were trying to push a third way under Macrons leadership. They nearly had the Australians, Japanese and pacific states rejecting us leadership with all the uncertainty under trump. There is a geopolitical argument, which is wrong in my view morally and ethically, that we should only give the Ukrainians enough to keep fighting and degrading Russian capability but not enough to win so the Russians aren’t free to help China with Taiwan.

[El Guapo]

I kind of think the simplest answer is the right one here. There's all sorts of direct sources out of Russia that basically communicate some version of "Ukraine is part of Russia." There are absolutely security and economic concerns too, but it's hard to avoid the conclusion that Putin views Ukraine as a core Russian province and wants to do everything he can to keep it from drifting out of Russia's control. Putin would be satisfied enough if Ukraine was independent but a vassal state (as it was for many post-USSR) years, but then the 2014 Maidan Revolution happens. He tries taking Crimea and destablising Ukraine in the east and otherwise, but none of that works. And the longer that goes on (*especially* if Ukraine gets some sort of official status with the EU or NATO, but not necessarily dependent on that) the harder it will be to bring Ukraine to heel.

Plus the article that came out around the time of the invasion seemed to indicate that the plan was to directly annex most of Ukraine and leave a rump Ukrainian state in part of western Ukraine.

[malchior]

I agree. It's far fetched to link what's happening in Ukraine to some worry about belt and road or broader Chinese concerns. China *announced* belt and road in late-ish 2013. It seems dubious to me that Putin or anyone had a good line on how influential or impactful it'd be to make such drastic moves.

Comparatively, the little green men and breakaway Donbas bullshit began immediately after Maidan. That's strongly linked. It's also not just the simplest explanation. It is pretty much what has been said out loud.

However, it underscores how Putin misjudged the situation. He now has NATO pretty much completely around him on the West and the point about being dependent on China is accurate. His tunnel vision on Ukraine has led to a massive foreign policy disaster that will have his name stamped all over it. He wanted a legacy but it won't be anywhere near the one he wanted.

[Max Peck]

Ukraine struck the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. There have been claims that several senior officers have been injured or killed, possibly including the commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine hits HQ of Russia's symbolic Black Sea navy

A Ukrainian missile strike has hit the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Crimea.

A serviceman is missing after the missile attack, according to Moscow. Footage on social media shows plumes of smoke over the building in Sevastopol.

The fleet is an important target for Kyiv and is seen as the best of Russia's navy.

Ukraine has hit several targets in Crimea recently, including an air-defence system and two naval vessels.

https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/statu ... 71298219#m

Budanov claims that the commander of Russian forces in southern Ukraine, Col. Gen. Alexander Romanchuk, and commander of the 200th sep MR bde, Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsekov were severely wounded in the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters today.

He cannot confirm any claims around the Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov.

Budanov is the Ukraine intelligence chief.

[Max Peck]

Ukraine live briefing: Armored vehicles push through Russian defenses near Verbove, Ukrainian forces say

Ukrainian armored vehicles have pushed through Russian lines of defense near the southern village of Verbove, a local commander told The Washington Post on Saturday. The small village in Zaporizhzhia has been the site of intense fighting in recent weeks, and is located a few miles from Robotyne, which Ukrainian forces recently liberated.

Ukrainian armored vehicles had breached the “Surovikin line” near Verbove, the commander said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss battlefield developments candidly. The “Surovikin line” refers to three defensive belts with minefields and trenches, which Russia constructed to slow Ukraine’s counteroffensive. General Oleksandr Tarnavsky told CNN his troops had made a “breakthrough” near Verbove, although progress was “not as fast as it was expected.” Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War, a thinktank, has described Ukraine’s ability to push through Russian defences and operate armored vehicles “near prepared Russian defensive positions" as “important signs of progress in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.”

The armored vehicles observed in the breach underscore the need for soldiers to retake territory on foot. Open source imagery of the operation shows U.S.-provided Strykers, which have limited protection against threats like tanks and anti-armor rockets, heading into the fight. Their biggest value is quickly reaching a position to drop off 11 soldiers at a time, which is a greater capacity than vehicles like Bradleys and Humvees provide. The imagery also shows vehicles like Western mine resistant vehicles, which offer protection for soldiers on their way to the fight, and German-made Marder vehicles, which use heavier weapons to destroy enemy vehicles and help defend friendly personnel carriers.

Verbove appears to be about 25km north of the rail line running through Tokmak, so Ukraine is close to being able to interdict the supply line feeding Russian forces to the west and in Crimea.

[malchior]

Verbove appears to be about 25km north of the rail line running through Tokmak, so Ukraine is close to being able to interdict the supply line feeding Russian forces to the west and in Crimea.

That was pretty much their relatively straight forward goal for this offensive. Secure the south and break off Crimea by damaging/destrying the Kerch railway bridge, make the port unsafe, and cutting off the railways. What'll be "interesting" is what happens when the UFA does get control of the railway which seems like it is a matter of time now. The Russians will have to make some fairly significant decisions about what to do.

ISW's assessment is that the effort can continue indefinitely right now (at least through winter) and the Ukrainian leadership has said as much. Caveated that it depends on continued supply from the West.

Edit: Crazy note here

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast has likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet). Budanov stated in his interview with The War Zone published on September 22 that the 810th Brigade was “completely defeated” in southern Ukraine.[13] Budanov stated that the 810th Brigade has withdrawn and that Russian airborne (VDV) units replaced them on the front. Budanov‘s description of the status of the 810th Brigade corresponds most closely to the US military‘s doctrinal definition of the tactical mission task of “destroy”: “physically render[ing] an enemy force combat-ineffective until reconstituted.”[14] Elements of the 810th Brigade have reportedly been operating in the Zaporizhia direction since March 2023 and in western Zaporizhia Oblast since June 2023.[15] ISW previously observed the 810th Brigade in October 2022, when it was reportedly operating in Kherson Oblast, and the unit was likely reconstituting in the rear in the interim before assuming positions in Zaporizhia Oblast.[16] The 810th Brigade has repeatedly suffered significant losses, and Ukrainian forces have destroyed the unit in the past, following which the Russian military has reconstituted it. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 19, 2022, that the 158 soldiers of the 810th Brigade had been killed and about 500 wounded.[17] GUR Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on July 31, 2022, that 200 servicemen of the 810th Brigade refused to return to the war in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 12, 2022, that the 810th Brigade lost more than 85% of its personnel in the Kherson direction and that many again refused to return to combat.[18]

85%!?! 2nd time!?! The Russian culture...is different.

[Max Peck]

Ah, Russia...

[Unagi]

Isn't it really that the word has been consistently used as an understatement since (ironically) around the Enlightenment?

[Max Peck]

It's probably technically more accurate to say that "decimated" shouldn't be used to describe military casualties at all because the original meaning was a punishment, where 1 in 10 of your own soldiers are killed to punish a unit for whatever reason.

Anyway, sometimes a meme is just a badly crafted joke that leans heavily on a good picture.

[Unagi]

It’s -only- that this joke hinges on the use of the term, but becomes a stone in my shoe because it ignores (as you point out) the original use of the term - which was in the not too distant past its own meme, IIRC.

/not a real big deal, just the only thing I’m stuck on when I see the image shared.

[Unagi]

Russia

Changing the use of "Literally Destroyed" from meaning "figuratively destroyed" to meaning "literally destroyed" since 2022.

[Max Peck]

You're not wrong. It's far from the worst off the cuff, poorly thought out joke I've inflicted on the world. At least no punches were thrown in response. Yet.

Your version is much better. I was trying to think of a revised one involving the phrase "combat ineffective" (i.e. they start out as combat ineffective, and then things get much worse) but couldn't quite pull it together.

[Unagi]

I would say my version is more clear, but it was me trying to show what the problem I had with the first one was. But yeah. Mine is better because it makes -that- the joke better.

But I’d like one to say:

“Russia: teaching a whole generation what ‘literally’ destroyed really means.“

[Max Peck]

But I’d like one to say:

“Russia: teaching a whole generation what ‘literally’ destroyed really means.“

[Blackhawk]

Decimated, like so many other words, is allowed to have its meaning change. Especially over the course of 2,000 years.

[Unagi]

Decimated, like so many other words, is allowed to have its meaning change. Especially over the course of 2,000 years.

Sure it is, but in that sense, it's never (in modern use) been misused and has always been just synonymous with "got their asses totally handed to them"
/shrug.

[Unagi]

Now there we go, that's got some legs!

[Blackhawk]

Decimated, like so many other words, is allowed to have its meaning change. Especially over the course of 2,000 years.

Sure it is, but in that sense, it's never (in modern use) been misused and has always been just synonymous with "got their asses totally handed to them"
/shrug.

Pretty much, which is fine. If people use it to mean 'almost totally destroyed', it feels a bit off to argue that they're wrong based on a 2,000 year old definition of the word it originally evolved from.

[Unagi]

I'm not making my point well (with you). Because it's such an ancient changing of the use of the word (i.e. we use it the way it's been used for quite some time) - it (the joke's choice of words) has this strange ability to kinda underscore (or haunt) what I think the humor behind the attempted meme is. To me.

I think my two examples beat it. One on the original joke, and one just even improving on the original joke.

IMO, of course.

[Carpet_pissr]

Jesus.

[Unagi]

Jesus.

He was banned.

[malchior]

There were some interesting notes in yesterday's ISW briefing.

They have noted that the Russians are burning through resources trying to hold land senselessly even though they have prepared fortifications to fall back to. One of their guesses as to why are that the Russians are trying to reinforce the notion that Ukrainian progress is too slow and are trading lives to undermine resolve in the West to help Ukraine. Which feels right. Another possibility is Putin is micromanaging which is another decent guess. Whatever the reason is, they seem to be making mistakes again which is wonderful.

Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.

...

The Russian military command may be ordering these counterattacks to buy time, but it is unclear how the Kremlin intends to use time bought at such a price.

Russian forces appear to be unwilling to surrender tactical areas and are focusing instead on fighting for every meter instead of benefiting from the depth of their prepared defenses. Ukrainian military journalist Konstyantyn Mashovets observed that the Russian military command is achieving its objective of buying more time from these counterattacks but questioned what the Russian military command intends to do with this time.[29] Mashovets argued that the sacrifice of combat-ready forces and assets during defensive operations only makes sense in two situations: if it allows time to organize defensive systems at another prepared line or if it buys time for the organization of a more substantial counterattack or counteroffensive.

...

The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders’ and officials’ attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin’s micromanagement.

A Kremlin insider source claimed that Putin reportedly gave Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu a deadline of one month until early October 2023 to improve the situation on the frontlines, stop Ukrainian counteroffensives, and have Russian forces regain the initiative to launch an offensive operation against a larger city.[32] The insider‘s claim, if true, may indicate that the Russian military command may be ordering relentless counterattacks in hopes of forcing the Ukrainian counteroffensive to culminate, even at a high cost to Russian military capabilities.

...

The Russian sacrifice of combat power to hold every meter may alternatively be intended to support the Kremlin’s informational and hybrid warfare objectives.

Russian President Vladimir Putin first acknowledged the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 9 by emphasizing two key and persistent narratives: that Ukrainian forces will not achieve significant successes due to well-prepared Russian defenses and that the Ukrainian forces are suffering heavy losses in personnel and Western military equipment.[31] Putin and the Kremlin have been framing Russian defensive operations as a major battlefield victory, and persistent Russian counterattacks allow the Kremlin to claim these operations as individual victories amidst the general lack of Russian battlefield advances elsewhere. These efforts likely intend to erode support and trust in Ukrainian forces in Ukraine and the West. Putin may have ordered the Russian military command to hold all Russia’s initial defensive positions to create the illusion that Ukrainian counteroffensives have not achieved any tactical or operational effects despite substantial Western support. This informational undertaking can only succeed in the long run if Russian forces can actually prevent Ukrainian forces from breaking through and liberating large areas, however.

[LordMortis]

One of their guesses as to why are that the Russians are trying to reinforce the notion that Ukrainian progress is too slow and are trading lives to undermine resolve in the West to help Ukraine.

This sounds right from a US perspective. I not sure the US perspective is right, but our nation is quick to fatigue and we seem to believe of economy is circling the drain, as we are told is the case every day, so we can blame Biden. Is that somehow being fed by Putin? I doubt it but he's happy to see it happen, I'm sure.

I can't speak for other western allies. I'm too myopic myself.

[malchior]

We are awash in misinformation. The entire year we've been told we've been in or nearing a recession. It's all been a pile of bullshit and while I don't think Putin is behind it I do think that oligarchic interests aligned with Putin's worldview -- one where they are free to grift at will - are definitely involved behind the scenes.

[$iljanus]

Jesus.

He was banned.

But returned after three days.

[Daehawk]

Using duct tape and bombs, Ukraine’s drone pilots wage war with low-cost, improvised weapons

Seconds later, the drone pilot switches to a frequency the Russians cannot easily exploit. The bird’s-eye image of the armored vehicle reappears, and a second drone – this one laden with explosives – is quickly launched. It zips toward the target

[Blackhawk]

The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

[Isgrimnur]

Jesus.

He was banned.

But returned after three days.

He gave up a three-day weekend for your sins.

[Unagi]

Jesus.

He was banned.

But returned after three days.

Only to delete his account.

[waitingtoconnect]

Jesus.

He was banned.

But returned after three days.

Only to delete his account.

Can I have his stuff?

[Holman]

"Russia: Flipping the script on 'Never fight a land war in (Eur)Asia' since 2022."

[malchior]

There is a report going around that Shoigu said that the "Special Military Operation" will continue until 2025. It seems to be going a whole lot longer than the original 3 days predicted.