Sunspot activity in freefall

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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Image

Active region 1045 shot-out an M-class flare yesterday, and the corresponding CME is scheduled to arrive on 9 Feb. Folks living near the poles should keep their eyes peeled for some auroral action!

Image

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2010" target="_blank
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Yesterday in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, astrophotographer John Stetson and his son Peter observed a very rare event--a sunspot-space station conjunction:

Enlarge Image

"We knew when to look thanks to a prediction from CalSky," says Stetson. "The International Space Station transited the solar disk in only 0.62 seconds. We managed to catch the station's silhouette just as it was passing sunspot 1057." Stetson has been photographing solar transits for years; he ranks this one as "the best yet."

As far as we know, this is the first time the ISS has been observed in conjunction with a big sunspot. Next up: How about a sunspot-space station eclipse? It is possible to anticipate such an event because CalSky shows sunspots in their transit prediction graphics. Astrophotographers, check the web site for opportunities.
http://www.spaceweather.com" target="_blank (26 February 2010, if you need to look in the archives to find the specific page).
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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That's too cool.

I guess we won't have to come up with a term to replace the Maunder Minimum anytime soon.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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It could become a euphemism for the most oft mentioned-as-if-it-were-the-first-time/linked page in a thread, however. :)
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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I just wanted to make sure we had it on the new page. Yeah, that's it, the new page thing.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Huge solar flare jams radio, satellite signals
A strong wave of charged plasma particles emanating from the Jupiter-sized sun spot, the most powerful seen in four years, has already disrupted radio communication in southern China.

The Class X flash -- the largest such category -- erupted at 0156 GMT Tuesday, according to the US space agency.

[snip]

One coronal mass ejection reached Earth on February 14, "sparking Valentine's Day displays of the Northern Lights (aurora borealis) further south than usual."

"Two CMEs are expected to arrive in the next 24-48 hours and further... displays are possible some time over the next two nights if skies are clear," it said.

[snip]

A 2009 report by a panel of scientists assembled by NASA said that a sustained and powerful solar flare outbreak could overwhelm high-voltage transformers with electrical currents and short-circuit energy grids.

The report, titled "Severe Space Weather Events -- Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts" warned that such a catastrophic event could cost the United States alone up to two trillion dollars in repairs in the first year -- and it could take up to 10 years to fully recover.
Looks like we may be coming out of that minimum...let's all hope we avoid "The Big One" that puts us back in the 1700s.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Is just the start of solar maximum I believe, one source I saw quoted at peak of activity there will be a couple of CME's a day, but only a 5-10% chance that we'll catch brunt of it. Interesting stuff suns!
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Son brought home a pair of glasses used to look at the sun and you can actually see the sunspot. It was faint but you could make it out with the naked eye. Thought that was pretty cool.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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The sun is just gearing up to wipe us all out next December.
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Sunspot activity in freefall

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I love this forum for many reasons, one one of which is that threads like this keep getting revisited.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Bakhtosh wrote:The sun is just gearing up to wipe us all out next December.
It's just waiting for the magnetic field to become neutral before it actually shifts to make the massive death ray most effective.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Once it aligns with the galactic center on Dec 21, 2010, it will be able to focus enough power to overcome our puny magnetic field. Muahahaha!
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Bakhtosh wrote:Once it aligns with the galactic center on Dec 21, 2010, it will be able to focus enough power to overcome our puny magnetic field. Muahahaha!
Is that a joke or typo?
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Dang...

Sorry, must be that CME messing with my brain waves man... I meant Dec 21, 2012
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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We're headed for peak activity in two years, but there's already fears that it may be our last maximum for a while:
For one, there is east/west river of gas the flows under the surface of the Sun (it can’t be seen directly, but it generates sound waves that travel from it to the surface, revealing its presence; I describe this in detail in an earlier post). This river comes and goes, but usually forms at mid-latitudes on the Sun and shifts toward the equator as the cycle progresses. As it does so, sunspots form above it. Although the next cycle won’t start for a few years, the river associated with it should already be forming. However, there are no indications it has, making astronomers think the next cycle may be delayed.

For another, scientists have found that the average magnetic strength of sunspots has been declining over the years.
...
Sunspots are an intrinsically magnetic phenomenon, so this trend of weaker magnetic fields inside them may be indicating, again, the next cycle may be delayed or not come at all.

Moving farther outward yet we come to the third line of evidence of a weak upcoming cycle. The Sun has an atmosphere, called the corona, of very thin but extremely hot plasma. It too is greatly affected by magnetic fields; every cycle the magnetic activity in the corona tends to form near the Sun’s equator and then slowly move toward the poles over the next few years. This "rush to the poles", as the scientists call it, is very weak this year, and may indicate that the peak in 2013 may not be terribly active. It’s unclear what this might mean for the cycle peak after that.
...
Mind you, these indicators don’t say much about the long-term magnetic health of the Sun; only that we may experience a weak peak in 2013 and a weaker or delayed peak the time around. After that, who knows?

Also, it seems very unlikely to me that we might experience another global cooling period due to this weakened sunspot cycle, but it shows you that there are very sensitive effects going on here that are very difficult to predict — and let me take this chance here to say that no, the Sun is not responsible for global warming, as has been shown fairly conclusively. It can mildly amplify or suppress such things, but is not the main driver of it. If it were, we’d see very strong correlations between the climate and solar activity on a decade-by-decade basis (or even shorter as sunspots form and dissipate over the course of days and weeks). We don’t, and therefore the Sun is not the culprit.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Big hit in progress right now. (Well, big relative to recent activity.)

Maybe some auroras for folks in the northern states.

http://news.yahoo.com/strongest-solar-s ... 28746.html" target="_blank
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Isgrimnur wrote:We're headed for peak activity in two years, but there's already fears that it may be our last maximum for a while:
Why is it a "fear"? I didn't think we liked sun spots.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Do we like them better than no sunspots?

I don't know the answer to that and likely neither do you. That's frightening.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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The Meal wrote:Do we like them better than no sunspots?

I don't know the answer to that and likely neither do you. That's frightening.
Ah, so just fear of the unknown versus something actually known bad going to happen. I can live with that. :)
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Yep. Good way to drum up dollars for research money. (Appropriately so in this case, I'd say.)

It'd likely mean fewer auroras, which'd make some folks rather sad. But then again, nobody knows for sure and for how long. Someone should link the Maunder Minimum wiki page and see if it has anything to say based on the last time this came about. ;)
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Went driving around till around midnight local time and there was no aurora joy here in NE CO. However, we did get to see an epic fireball! It was of insane brightness, easily one of the brightest meteors I've seen in many years. So it was a win. Speaking of wins, the Space Weather Prediction Center had a great forecast.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Holy crap!
There was a class x5.4 solar flare tonight!
Hope it wasn't pointed at us.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

Post by KKBlue »

Shutter
This stuff really does freak me out. There is still some scaring from grammer school science class, learning that the sun's life will come to an end and take the Earth's life with it...
I'm not a fan of science :wink:
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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This stuff really does freak me out. There is still some scaring from grammer school science class, learning that the sun's life will come to an end and take the Earth's life with it...
Cheer up. By the time that happens, you, everyone you know, and probably all of humanity will already have been dead for eons. Sweet dreams! :D
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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However, another Carrington event could permanently damage most of the transmission system and put us all in the dark for a very long time.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Geesh, ya guys are swell, thanks for the uplifting comments :P

It is interesting what bothers some people and doesn't even phase others. I know that my fear is silly but it still bothers me. I wish I could turn off worries, guess it depends on how deep seeded it is. I've gotten remarkably better with not fretting about things that are out of my control (actually, what is in life?) AND I come from a family of award winning women worriers.

Believe the underlining concern is global chaos... and zombies. I will take comfort tonight in knowing that TWD is a good representation of how life can be. Sweet dreams.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Bakhtosh wrote:However, another Carrington event could permanently damage most of the transmission system and put us all in the dark for a very long time.
Since I had to go look it up, I figured I'd share. Carrington event.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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You think you guys have it bad, imagine what it must be like for my poor spacecraft orbiting Mercury:
This wave of solar plasma will mostly miss hitting Earth, but some spacecraft, including NASA's sun-watching Stereo B satellite, the Messenger spacecraft at Mercury and the agency's infrared Spitzer Space Telescope, are in path of the resulting radiation storm, according to scientists at the Space Weather Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Odin wrote:
Bakhtosh wrote:However, another Carrington event could permanently damage most of the transmission system and put us all in the dark for a very long time.
Since I had to go look it up, I figured I'd share. Carrington event.
Thanks. I was going through the synopsis for each Dynasty episode trying to figure out where Blake screwed up.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Bakhtosh wrote:However, another Carrington event could permanently damage most of the transmission system and put us all in the dark for a very long time.
17 hours? How cool is that. My poor math skills tell me that we could make it to the next solar system in less than 10 years if we can get that kind of speed harnessed. Meal you should get right on that.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Yeah. I'd never thought that an earlier CMEs could "clear the way" for those following.

UPDATE:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.p ... eID=104487" target="_blank
Solar Storm Eruption: Coronal Mass Ejection Headed for Earth
On Tuesday, March 6, 2012, a large solar flare erupted from the Sun. Data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center suggest that the coronal mass ejection - the blast of plasma from the Sun’s surface - could reach Earth by early Thursday morning (March 8, 2012).
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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I saw this once on the Knowing... Things didn't end well.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Last update.... http://news.yahoo.com/biggest-solar-sto ... 12486.html" target="_blank

Its states before 5am est. Well it's going on 7am and nothing noticeable at my place. hope the sats all made it.

4 million mph...now that is fast.

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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Those shots above are awesome.

Huge sunspot groups!
The Sun is at it again: ... Active Region 1515, a vast sunspot group, has been blemishing the Sun’s face for days, and is being joined by Active region 1520, another huge group just now coming around the Sun’s edge.

This Solar Dynamics Observatory image shows AR 1515 on the lower right and AR 1520 on the lower left. A quick measurement shows both are about 200,000 kilometers (120,000 miles) across – fifteen times the width of the Earth! If one end were placed on Earth, it would stretch halfway to the Moon.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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We're headed for solar maximum in August:
During solar max, the sun’s surface erupts with solar flares and coronal mass ejections — huge prominences that carry charged particles and radiation out into space. If these explosions hit the Earth, they can damage satellites in space, create radio blackouts, pose a danger to astronauts and, in the event of a solar megastorm, disrupt power lines and other infrastructure on the ground.

Increased extreme ultraviolet radiation at solar max also heats up the Earth’s atmosphere, causing it to puff out at the very top where it touches space. This creates more drag forces on satellites and outposts like the International Space Station, causing them to fall back toward Earth, which vexes satellite operators and requires reboosting to bring these objects back to their proper place. But the effect isn’t all bad: Orbital debris known as space junk tends to fall back too. Since these bits are small and get no extra boost, they burn up in the atmosphere, helping clean up the space environment.

Most of these events go away during solar minimum, only to be replaced with another set of space weather hazards. A decrease in the solar wind allows more galactic cosmic rays to enter the solar system.
...
The decrease in ultraviolet radiation causes the Earth’s atmosphere to cool and contract, meaning satellites have less trouble staying in orbit. On the other hand, space junk tends to accumulate at this time.

Because of these complex interactions, Guhathakurta and her co-author liken the solar cycle to the terrestrial climate pattern known as El Nino and La Nina. This oscillation in the Pacific Ocean occurs every two to seven years. Like solar max and min, El Nino and La Nina have their own set of distinct properties, some of which are good and some of which are not.
...
The inspiration for thinking about the solar cycle in this way came to Guhathakurta during the most recent minimum during 2008 and 2009. Sunspot counts were very low but cosmic rays surged to the highest intensity seen during the Space Age. Earth’s upper atmosphere collapsed and space junk boomed.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

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Solar flare incoming:
The Earth is in the direct path of a major solar flare that is set to hit the planet Thursday and could put military satellites in danger.

The X-class solar flare, exploded off the sun on Tuesday. It is scheduled to hit the Earth Thursday. NASA has already delayed one launch in order to prevent damage from the increased amount of radiation.
...
While the solar flare could have the potential to be extremely destructive, it will put on quite a light show as the Northern Lights will expand as far south as Colorado.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

Post by Enough »

Isgrimnur wrote:Solar flare incoming:
The Earth is in the direct path of a major solar flare that is set to hit the planet Thursday and could put military satellites in danger.

The X-class solar flare, exploded off the sun on Tuesday. It is scheduled to hit the Earth Thursday. NASA has already delayed one launch in order to prevent damage from the increased amount of radiation.
...
While the solar flare could have the potential to be extremely destructive, it will put on quite a light show as the Northern Lights will expand as far south as Colorado.
It already came, but unfortunately the Kp index levels didn't.
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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

Post by Isgrimnur »

That's what happens when I'm down sick for a few days. I get to all the chicken little behind the curve.

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Re: Sunspot activity in freefall

Post by Isgrimnur »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:42 pm And our 11 year solar inspired magnetic weather cycle is totally fubarred would that mean maybe we're due to the great pole flip? Can't we read the history of all of these great earth switches in axis and poles from Mariana trench?
Live Science
Our planet's dynamic magnetic field can change direction far more quickly than scientists suspected.

This bubble of magnetism holds our atmosphere in place and protects us from harmful cosmic radiation and solar winds. But a few times every million years, the field's polarity reverses and the magnetic North Pole and South Pole trade places. The last time this happened was about 780,000 years ago, and the process was previously estimated to take thousands of years, shifting at a rate of about one degree per year.

But this and other dramatic changes in the magnetic field's direction may happen 10 times faster than once thought — and nearly 100 times faster than recently observed changes, researchers reported in a new study.
...
Centuries ago, sailors' notations in ships' navigation logs recorded changes in the magnetic field; in recent decades, satellites and observatories captured such changes. In fact, recent observations show that the magnetic field's strength has waned over the past 160 years, suggesting that Earth may be due for a magnetic flip sooner rather than later, Live Science previously reported.
...
To answer that question, Davies and study co-author Catherine Constable, a professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, used a new model of the magnetic field that was derived from a large dataset of magnetic field observations from the past 100,000 years. Magnetic field changes show up in marine sediments, cooled lava flows, and even human-made structures and artifacts, Davies said.
...
Davies and Constable discovered that the magnetic field could change direction by as much as 10 degrees per year in zones where the field was weakening — this rate is about 10 times faster than previous models suggested, and about 100 times faster than changes seen in modern observations.
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