Octopus Overlords

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:54 am Awfully quiet in here! You guys shell shocked?

Considering everything I'm holding is stuff I'm long in, I'm just riding the wave. Same as I did in 2020.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 12:53 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:54 am Awfully quiet in here! You guys shell shocked?

Considering everything I'm holding is stuff I'm long in, I'm just riding the wave. Same as I did in 2020.

Same. Keep on keepin' on.

I think I need a financial planner and I thought you guys might have some advice. I'm about 11 years (hopefully) from retirement and want to make sure my pots of money are set up correctly. I know I want a fiduciary, but right now my money is almost exclusively in a 401k and a pension. Would they even help with that as I don't think as that really counts as assets under management. Thoughts?

stessier wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:00 pm I think I need a financial planner and I thought you guys might have some advice. I'm about 11 years (hopefully) from retirement and want to make sure my pots of money are set up correctly. I know I want a fiduciary, but right now my money is almost exclusively in a 401k and a pension. Would they even help with that as I don't think as that really counts as assets under management. Thoughts?

I need one too but I think it may be too late for that ship to get set right for me.

stessier wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:00 pm I think I need a financial planner and I thought you guys might have some advice. I'm about 11 years (hopefully) from retirement and want to make sure my pots of money are set up correctly. I know I want a fiduciary, but right now my money is almost exclusively in a 401k and a pension. Would they even help with that as I don't think as that really counts as assets under management. Thoughts?

The pension is an asset and source of income. It exists as a piece of the pie but you probably can't really manage it. It influences how you invest the rest of the pie.

The 401K, it depends on the institution you're with. They probably offer a financial advisor, which would be a good place to start.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:26 pm They probably offer a financial advisor, which would be a good place to start.

Mine did not and the account rep who gave advice was terrible and surely was not bound by being a fiduciary.

I decided I needed some REIT exposure in my portfolio, and bought a Fidelity REIT ETF (FREL).

Just today (bought it a few months ago) realizing that a REIT ETF is not a REIT. Not sure how I feel about that.

It’s outsourced diversity for that market segment.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:35 pm I decided I needed some REIT exposure in my portfolio, and bought a Fidelity REIT ETF (FREL).

Just today (bought it a few months ago) realizing that a REIT ETF is not a REIT. Not sure how I feel about that.

If it means you don't have to fill out an schedule K that you would otherwise have to fill out, you feel pretty good.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:48 pm It’s outsourced diversity for that market segment.

I was about to respond "without the divvies" but I just looked it up and it DOES have a 2.9% yield. Huh! Maybe I'm ok with that, as long as I'm not consistently underperforming "pure" REITs (though which one would you pick as a benchmark?). REITS are already diversifiers....an ETF of REITS seems...overkill I guess?

It's obvious I didn't do enough homework before buying this, dammit. Hell, I probably should have at least read a bit on "Is now a horrible/great time to buy REITs?"

Land: on the short term, they're not making any more of it.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:21 pm Land: on the short term, they're not making any more of it.

I thought China was.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-navy ... d=60993256

I doubt that's going up for sale anytime soon.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:23 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:21 pm Land: on the short term, they're not making any more of it.

I thought China was.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-navy ... d=60993256

Medium-term, there's gonna be a whole lot less of it.

Looks like an interesting day.

Just deviated from my automated investing to throw an extra grand into VTI+VXUS in my taxable.

Welp, RIVN shit the bed today:
(Motley Fool)
The Rivian thesis has fundamentally changed
What's hardest to get my head around today is what to think of Rivian's stock. Just 24 hours ago, I would have said this is a compelling company because it has a potentially disruptive product in the truck and SUV market that's being sold at a price point that's hard to ignore.
Today, Rivian is a company that's trying to sell the most expensive mid-size truck and SUVs on the market. An R1S SUV is more expensive than a BMW X7, Chevy Suburban, and even a 7-seat Land Rover.

Rivian's price move
Amid rising prices for all types of commodities, Rivian announced on Tuesday that it's raising prices for its R1T truck and R1S SUV. Increases range from 17% to 20%, and many customers (myself included) got notices of a price increase that pushed the price tag above $90,000.


Notice that the price increase includes those who have pre-ordered Horrible, stupid move!

Yeah, that was a very bad move. Lots of Rivian pre-orderers in my feeds are pissed, more than one to the point of cancelling.

Lucid also has been shitting the bed lately, as they realized that no, they won't have a smooth ramp after all, even with their 'experienced managers,' as Peter Rawlinson once liked to say.

Certainly glad I didn't go heavier into RIVN.

It was always going to be risky. Tesla had a great product and almost didn't make it through scale up. It's legitimately tough. And that was in better times. With supply chains tattered as they are right now? It is hard not to say nearly impossible.

I have no qualms with the price increase--it's the fact that it's going straight through to reservation holders, too. Even Tesla, Grand King of Poor Customer Communications, generally honors pricing in effect at the time you get on the list. In the one major exception I can think of (coinciding with the Model S refresh), some portion of the increase was passed through but a five-figure portion was not.

Rivian used several faked videos to promote their trucks. I think they were permanently off my list after the tank turn business.

Lucid got hit by supply issues, a bit more forgivable but guess what? Making cars is hard.

DSKE is finally chugging for me.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:29 pm I have no qualms with the price increase--it's the fact that it's going straight through to reservation holders, too. Even Tesla, Grand King of Poor Customer Communications, generally honors pricing in effect at the time you get on the list. In the one major exception I can think of (coinciding with the Model S refresh), some portion of the increase was passed through but a five-figure portion was not.

Yes, absolutely at minimum the optics are horrific to outsiders, but to screw people that were interested enough, and in some ways trusting enough to pre-order? Gah. Doesn't speak well of company management frankly.

But those (new) prices are almost as bad. It was already an exceedingly expensive truck (even though my Dad's ICE F-150 cost $70K+, it also has every bell and whistle available).

Hopefully they have a strategy here or maybe they shifted to a "mostly commercial" model...something other than idiocy.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:29 pm I have no qualms with the price increase--it's the fact that it's going straight through to reservation holders, too. Even Tesla, Grand King of Poor Customer Communications, generally honors pricing in effect at the time you get on the list. In the one major exception I can think of (coinciding with the Model S refresh), some portion of the increase was passed through but a five-figure portion was not.

That doesn't bode well for them. As much as I like Rivian, they are already too expensive of a model and jacking up prices on a reservations/pre-orders is verboten.

Well, points for listening to the outrage and doing the right thing:



Still, the fact that they made such drastic changes in pricing is concerning (if understandable given the current environment), and the fact they're fixing this for current res holders makes me think they were losing a lot more reservations than they anticipated. Hopefully I'm over-thinking that.

I'm any event, I'm pretty sure this week's events have sold a bunch more F-150 Lightnings...

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:36 pm Well, points for listening to the outrage and doing the right thing:



Still, the fact that they made such drastic changes in pricing is concerning (if understandable given the current environment), and the fact they're fixing this for current res holders makes me think they were losing a lot more reservations than they anticipated. Hopefully I'm over-thinking that.

I'm any event, I'm pretty sure this week's events have sold a bunch more F-150 Lightnings...

The other issue is one I think I've mentioned before - that there will be some pretty dramatic issues with replacement parts (like Tesla). If they are having supply chain issues this significant in their initial rollout, how bad will the parts market be...

&^$@#&^$@&^ I bought RIVN at $60, pretty decent sized position on a whim. Wondering if I should sell, because I have to agree somewhat with that Motley Fool article...that move was a pretty significant one that might have changed the investment thesis. From both a customer retention perspective, as well as a financial one. I'll be curious to see if we find out how many cancelations they got as a result of that (or if it was mostly internet bluster). I personally would have canceled if I had pre-ordered.

At least you didn't buy at 172.

Not surprisingly, RIVN being sued for the pricing kerfuffle.

WSJ: Shareholder Sues Rivian, Alleging Startup Misled Investors on Vehicle Pricing

I usually abhor these kinds of class action lawsuits when stocks drop precipitously, but this one is probably more justifiable than most. The action materially and negatively affected the sp pretty significantly.

AMZN 20 for 1 split, $10B buyback.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:44 pm AMZN 20 for 1 split, $10B buyback.

Already a ~7% bump in after hours trading.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:44 pm AMZN 20 for 1 split, $10B buyback.

Huh. Didn't see that coming. Yay, I guess?

The buyback is weird. At a market cap of 1.42 trillion, what is the point? I guess it's to avoid income taxes via dividend?

For comparison sake, Berkshire Hathaway bought back 30 billion on half that market cap last year.

I’ve actually recently been wondering at what point, if any, AMZN starts paying out divvies.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:14 am The buyback is weird. At a market cap of 1.42 trillion, what is the point? I guess it's to avoid income taxes via dividend?

Isn't that corporate par for the course. Buy back vs Divvy's has been a hot topic in the last few years. I was surprised AMZN do buy backs when they are in perpetual growth mode but then I'm not the sharpest bulb in the toolbox.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:51 am

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:14 am The buyback is weird. At a market cap of 1.42 trillion, what is the point? I guess it's to avoid income taxes via dividend?

Isn't that corporate par for the course. Buy back vs Divvy's has been a hot topic in the last few years. I was surprised AMZN do buy backs when they are in perpetual growth mode but then I'm not the sharpest bulb in the toolbox.

I'm not opposed to buybacks. If you feel your company is undervalued, it's the right thing to do.

It's just weird to do such a (relatively) tiny amount.

Buybacks are better for insiders and institutions who hold a shitload shares. Bezos' tax bill on a divvy would be large. Appreciation is better: zero tax loans.

RIVN reports today after close. Just think, this thing was trading at $172 in NOVEMBER! Not exactly eons ago. Right now it's around $40. I am going to hold my 200 shares or so I bought at $57, but dang...should be a wild ride after the bell and tomorrow at open.

Probably going to be a big swing either way. I am expecting a swing down given how many companies that report even positive results lately seem to get hammered.

Plus, they aren't going to have any positive news to offer on the supply chain issues except what everyone else is saying, including Tesla, which is "prices are going up!" That will likely not play well wrt sp.

Unless they have an ace up their sleeve that they are going to announce (new partnership for instance, or a big new swathe of pre-orders from a large company), just not seeing upside here for quite a while.

Ouch. Who wants to buy RIVN at $30? Tomorrow's your likely chance to do just that!

Down 14% AH (and dropping)

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:17 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:12 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:01 pm Gotta buy NVDA here, right?!? RIGHT?!

Hell, I think ANY semiconductor company right now is probably a great pick. Currently holding AMAT and LRCX, but feeling tempted to get NVDA as well.

I have a lot of TSM so not looking into add much in the way of semis but I'm looking at GFS here. $45-50.

The highly "diversified" play here is KLAC IMO.

I did get 100 GFS under $45 but I'm kicking my self for not buying more.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:05 am

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:17 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:12 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:01 pm Gotta buy NVDA here, right?!? RIGHT?!

Hell, I think ANY semiconductor company right now is probably a great pick. Currently holding AMAT and LRCX, but feeling tempted to get NVDA as well.

I have a lot of TSM so not looking into add much in the way of semis but I'm looking at GFS here. $45-50.

The highly "diversified" play here is KLAC IMO.

I did get 100 GFS under $45 but I'm kicking my self for not buying more.

I never bought NVDA "there", but in terms of semiconductors, still holding AMAT and LRCX, both down slightly from where I bought.

GFS is a pure semi play?