Octopus Overlords

Funding secured? ($420)

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:52 amRivian is the most impressive EV upstart not named Tesla, IMO, and their biggest hurdle at this point is having the cashola cola to actually get to market. $500M from Ford will help a lot, especially when added to Amazon's existing investment. Rivian's tech looks to be the real deal, and from all I've seen of him, RJ Scaringe is a fair ace-in-the-hole comparable to Tesla's JB Straubel.

I'm starting to think that Rivian might be able to actually pull off survival.

Side note: GM's failure to get a deal done with Rivian is not looking too great right now.

Rivian nabbed another cool $Billion-plus today, again from Ford and Amazon, plus T. Rowe Price and BlackRock. I'm starting to get stoked that they are actually going to be producing vehicles next year.

Where's my effing chess program? There is no longer an arcade logo! Idiots!

No Stardew Valley for you.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:12 pm Where's my effing chess program? There is no longer an arcade logo! Idiots!

Are you in Park when looking for it? It's all still there. I think it is under Entertainment rather than Arcade.

coopasonic wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:07 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:12 pm Where's my effing chess program? There is no longer an arcade logo! Idiots!

Are you in Park when looking for it? It's all still there. I think it is under Entertainment rather than Arcade.

Where is that? I thought I looked everywhere. Yes in park.

The little up arrow on the right end of the lower left corner display.

coopasonic wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:19 pm The little up arrow on the right end of the lower left corner display.

Thanks, coop, I found it. Kudos to Tesla for hiding in plain sight.

Now with backgammon! Already crushed it mercilessly.

Interesting video from Matt Farrell last week. He goes through several of the things that Tesla does better than everyone else, then wonders whether that success is impairing the expansion of the greater EV market. Like him, I'm not sure what I think. I can see how execs at other companies would balk at trying to replicate everything that makes a Tesla a Tesla, though.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:58 pm Interesting video from Matt Farrell last week. He goes through several of the things that Tesla does better than everyone else, then wonders whether that success is impairing the expansion of the greater EV market. Like him, I'm not sure what I think. I can see how execs at other companies would balk at trying to replicate everything that makes a Tesla a Tesla, though.

I haven't seen the video yet but it seems to me it's similar to Apple with the iPhone. There was no competition at first while others caught up (and cloned), but eventually it evened out. However... just as Apple retains its cache and created a very loyal fanbase, it's likely Tesla will hold onto a similar kind of mythological power over consumers. In spite of minor things that bother me about both, I am hopelessly locked into their gravity and I don't see anything shaking me loose any time soon.

Amusingly, in the mail today is an Audi advert offering me $100 to test-drive an e-Tron.

Now I can't cry selling two of my four shares of TESLA at nearly 100% profit in under six months but in a market where everyone is dipping, TESLA is clearly showing me why I wanted to both buy and sell at the same time. Can you imagine being part of the estimated 20% of shares in short sale as of December?

Google even knew what I was looking for.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1028780116

From December 20

Tesla short-sellers have absorbed a $7.6 billion loss on a mark-to-market basis since the stock's multiyear closing low of $178.97 per share on June 3, according to a recent note from the financial-analytics firm S3 Partners. The stock hit an intraday record of $413 on Friday.

It was trading at over $470 a share when last I looked.

Are you retired yet?

LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:59 pm Are you retired yet?

Ha, no. Ask me again when it's a 4-digit price. Also, it's TSLA so could be $250 again in a few months. It's been a fun few weeks, though.

You Jersey folks finally get some benefits for your crazy taxes...

https://electrek.co/2020/01/06/tesla-mo ... ectrified/

$5k rebate for EVs with 200+ miles of range, plus sales tax is waived. I think you just passed Colorado for nicest-state-to-EV-buyers.

I sold an OTM covered call against some TSLA today, so any of you still holding shares can expect them to go to the moon now that I've hedged a bit.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 pm I sold an OTM covered call against some TSLA today, so any of you still holding shares can expect them to go to the moon now that I've hedged a bit.

Good move even if you get called, IMO. With $50K invested per covered call, you'd be crazy not to earn a bit of income on those shares. Especially at the premium TSLA calls are trading at.

What strike and expiration?

1/31 $510. Not super-stoked about being exposed for earnings, which I expect to be very solid given the record deliveries and reduced leasing mix, but the premium of 1/31 over 1/24 was significant and given TSLA's volatility I may end up buying back to close prior to earnings if we get a pullback. All things considered I'd be OK if this is a new trading range of 470-495 or so and I can sqeeze out some profit via playing covered calls for awhile. If it eventually rises up and they get called away, no big loss as I'm planning to take some off the table if it goes significantly above $500, anyway.

* - do not try this at home, I am a terrible investor, not a professional, etc etc.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:39 am

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 pm I sold an OTM covered call against some TSLA today, so any of you still holding shares can expect them to go to the moon now that I've hedged a bit.

Good move even if you get called, IMO. With $50K invested per covered call, you'd be crazy not to earn a bit of income on those shares. Especially at the premium TSLA calls are trading at.

What strike and expiration?

I wish I understood this language. And had any money that approached the idea of dealing with options related to $400+ stocks. Oi. I keep looking at calls and puts (on much less expensive equities) and then I keep looking away as I can't see it as much more than gambling for my grasp and I can't gamble with that kind of money.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:44 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:39 am

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 pm I sold an OTM covered call against some TSLA today, so any of you still holding shares can expect them to go to the moon now that I've hedged a bit.

Good move even if you get called, IMO. With $50K invested per covered call, you'd be crazy not to earn a bit of income on those shares. Especially at the premium TSLA calls are trading at.

What strike and expiration?

I wish I understood this language. And had any money that approached the idea of dealing with options related to $400+ stocks. Oi. I keep looking at calls and puts (on much less expensive equities) and then I keep looking away as I can't see it as much more than gambling for my grasp and I can't gamble with that kind of money.

The trick is to buy them when they're $70 stocks.

Call option. Basically now that we're at a price that I'm contemplatng offloading some, I sold a call option giving someone the right to force me to sell shares at $510 expiring 1/31. For the option, I was paid a premium that I keep regardless. If the stock heads above $510 as this month goes on, the call will likely be exercised and I lose the shares (at a price I'm OK with). If it doesn't, I pocket the premium and move on (likely selling another call next month if the price hangs out in this range).

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:40 pm You Jersey folks finally get some benefits for your crazy taxes...

https://electrek.co/2020/01/06/tesla-mo ... ectrified/

$5k rebate for EVs with 200+ miles of range, plus sales tax is waived. I think you just passed Colorado for nicest-state-to-EV-buyers.

Lol - if only I didn't buy a gas hog last year. Maybe I should trade it in for an EV. I haven't driven much over 100 miles in awhile. 200+ is rare now. That is like a $7K - 10K incentive there. Said half jokingly I'd be afraid the federal government will find a way to call it income and tax it right back.

malchior wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:06 pmLol - if only I didn't buy a gas hog last year. Maybe I should trade it in for an EV. I haven't driven much over 100 miles in awhile. 200+ is rare now. That is like a $7K - 10K incentive there. Said half jokingly I'd be afraid the federal government will find a way to call it income and tax it right back.

I know a lot of EV drivers, and zero of them regret having made the switch. Nearly 100% of them regret not having made the switch sooner.

For the spectators in the audience: today's $25 jump (sheesh) spooked me a bit, so I rolled up from a $510 call to a $535 call, same expiration. Cuts my max profit off the call in half (if it expires worthless), but should the shares get called away it raises the profit by ~50% more than that. Calculated gamble.

And up up up more it goes. I guess I should have bought when I wanted to both buy and sell at around $440 and sold half of my four shares. Overnight it looks like it was trading close to $550.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:50 am And up up up more it goes. I guess I should have bought when I wanted to both buy and sell at around $440 and sold half of my four shares. Overnight it looks like it was trading close to $550.

It'll come back down. If it doesn't, there are hundreds of other opportunities out there. I'm looking to buy puts but they are a bit too pricey right now IMO.

There's always the hedge against missing the boat: Sell puts. For example the Feb $440 puts are around $11.20. If it doesn't get below $440 or so, you keep the money ($1,120). If it does, you buy 100 shares at $440.

Jan 2021 $440s are $50.

The other route is to buy leap calls when you sell. I did that with AMD when I sold around $13. iIRC, I bought $10 or $11 calls with the profits. It was the right move, unfortunately I sold the calls too when they tripled in a few months. Yes, they were Jan 2020 calls.

If it does, you buy 100 shares at $440.

$44,000, nope.

Taking to OOIC.

What LB said, although selling puts requires you to have a bunch of cash or margin ready in case you are required to buy. If I was looking to get in on the action and I thought it was going to keep going up, I'd be buying calls instead. Basically the opposite of selling puts--you pay the premium and get the option to buy shares at strike price X by a certain date. If it doesn't rise, you're out the premium. If it does rise past your strike price, you either exercise and buy the shares at your strike price (unlikely unless you're sitting on enough cash to do that with 100 shares of TSLA), or you sell the options before expiration for a profit. The difficulty there is that due to the crazy rise lately, call options are trading at pretty crazy premiums.

I sure wouldn't be outright buying shares at this level, even though I do think there's a lot of potential upside left. Too rich for my blood.

[Edit - And I see you guys already covered most of this.]

And falls overnight pathetically to under $500. Zax must be ruined. Ruined I tell you!!!!

A cryin' shame, really.

Tesla in China is causing a stir, I guess

52-Wk Range
176.99 - 572.11

In-sanity

$583 now. Sheesh.

I know this is a Tesla thread, but it's kind of also the EV thread...

Porsche's Super Bowl ad:

LordMortis wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:44 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:39 am

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 pm I sold an OTM covered call against some TSLA today, so any of you still holding shares can expect them to go to the moon now that I've hedged a bit.

Good move even if you get called, IMO. With $50K invested per covered call, you'd be crazy not to earn a bit of income on those shares. Especially at the premium TSLA calls are trading at.

What strike and expiration?

I wish I understood this language. And had any money that approached the idea of dealing with options related to $400+ stocks. Oi. I keep looking at calls and puts (on much less expensive equities) and then I keep looking away as I can't see it as much more than gambling for my grasp and I can't gamble with that kind of money.

Or you could approach stock investing the Warren Buffet way and just analyze the company and figure out if it's something you want to own for at least a few years. Then you identify how much you want to throw at them and buy that much stock at market value. That's the way I do my stock investing. I invested in Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Exxon more than 15 years ago and have mostly held my positions since then. I've bought more shares over the years and overall I'd say it's a comfortable 20% average return on all of them.

The times I've been burned were when I bought some shares of a company that was the hot ticket item at the time and I didn't do my due diligence to ask what their long term prospects were of being the hot company a few years down the road. That and when I listened to a broker who was managing my retirement account at a previous company who convinced me to invest in anything other than an S&P 500 index fund. All his recommendations ended up with negative returns. ALL OF THEM. Luckily it was not a lot of money and the majority is still safely earning away in an index fund.

Q4 Shareholder letter

Cliff's:
$386M non-GAAP net inc
+$1B free cash flow for the quarter, $6B+ in cash now
-Model Y in production now and ramping, deliveries by EoQ1
-Y AWD EPA range 315, up from promised 280 at reveal in March 2019. Far and away the class leader.
-640k production capacity at present b/t Fremont/Shanghai. Guiding for ~740k by midyear. Guiding to 'comfortably surpass' 500k deliveries in 2020.
-All-time high energy storage deployment in Q4 of 530 MWh. 1.65 GWh for 2019, guiding 50% increase in 2020.
-Solarglass roof ramping, (finally) hiring hundreds more workers for the NJ plant.
-Guiding as self-funding moving forward.

Stock hovering around $620. Sheesh.

$621 AH. I'm guessing $600 or so at open.