Post-election predictions?

[Anonymous Bosch]

With the election over and, by most accounts, Bush being projected to win re-election, what are your predictions for how things will shape up in the coming days/weeks ahead?

Will Kerry concede and, if so, when do you expect to see the concession speech? Or will they cry havoc and let slip the dogs of law? If it goes the legal route, on what basis -- beyond being dissatisfied with the results -- do you expect to see the results challenged?

[Papa Smurph]

My understanding, which is not exactly a prediction but has been known to be just as wrong as one, is that the democrats are prepping planes to fly their lawyers whereever they are "needed".

I discussed it in another thread, so I will shamelessly link to it from here.

[GungHo]

Im probalby the least knowledgeable person in the world to be commenting on this....so here goes.

I think Kerry will wait for OH law to be followed, which says that they dont *start* counting provisional ballots until 11 days after the election(11/13). Ive heard that the number of provisional ballots could be as high as 250,000 and many of those are from Cuyahoga County which is a Kerry stronghold.

But with Bush's lead at nearly 145,000, Kerry would need a seemingly unattainably high % of those votes to be for him in order to carry the state; and without OH, Kerry simply cannot win.

But unless after counting the provisional votes Kerry is within 5,000 votes or so, I dont think we'll be seeing any lawyers. iF he is...ugg. For the well-being of the country, I just hope he isnt.

[Anonymous Bosch]

My understanding, which is not exactly a prediction but has been known to be just as wrong as one, is that the democrats are prepping planes to fly their lawyers whereever they are "needed".

I discussed it in another thread, so I will shamelessly link to it from here.

But on what legal grounds do you think they will challenge the results? Obviously the Dems would have to come up with something more than, "we don't like the fact that Bush appears to have won." From the projections I've been watching, the margin of difference in Ohio is nowhere near the 0.25% of the total vote (approximately 15,000 votes) that would be required for an automatic recount. As GungHo pointed out, even with the 200,000 or so provisional ballots, they would have to break something like 78% in favour of Kerry in order to put the state in Kerry's column.

I don't know what coverage everyone else watched or listened to, but I mostly listened to the radio on the way home and watched NBC's coverage of the election and I certainly heard and saw very little in terms of alleged wrong-doing and voter disenfranchisement. Did I miss something in this regard?

[SirReal]

I don't know what coverage everyone else watched or listened to, but I mostly listened to the radio on the way home and watched NBC's coverage of the election and I certainly heard and saw very little in terms of alleged wrong-doing and voter disenfranchisement. Did I miss something in this regard?

If I understand correctly, several states use voting machines with proprietary code that wasn't spot checked during elections and runs an operating system known for it's many security flaws, as well as a database best used to count stamps, not votes.

And oh, there's no paper trail.

It'd be real easy to have those states produce whatever result is desired. No trace would be left of tampering. None at all.

[Tareeq]

If I understand correctly, several states use voting machines with proprietary code that wasn't spot checked during elections and runs an operating system known for it's many security flaws, as well as a database best used to count stamps, not votes.

And oh, there's no paper trail.

It'd be real easy to have those states produce whatever result is desired. No trace would be left of tampering. None at all.

Ohio, however, is not one of those states. Most counties in Ohio still use the old reliable punchcard system.

So we have a paper trail.

[malchior]

If I understand correctly, several states use voting machines with proprietary code that wasn't spot checked during elections and runs an operating system known for it's many security flaws, as well as a database best used to count stamps, not votes.

And oh, there's no paper trail.

It'd be real easy to have those states produce whatever result is desired. No trace would be left of tampering. None at all.

Theoretically it would be ideal to do this when the elections will be close too... And luckily one of the big voting machine manufacturers(Diebold) is a huge Republican booster.

[malchior]

My big post-election prediction is that Roe Vs. Wade will be overturned within the next 3 years despite the broad privacy concerns involved.

Also, because of the current Congressional makeup our Supreme Court will become very socially conservative for 10-15 years at the very least.

[Victoria Raverna]

If I understand correctly, several states use voting machines with proprietary code that wasn't spot checked during elections and runs an operating system known for it's many security flaws, as well as a database best used to count stamps, not votes.

And oh, there's no paper trail.

It'd be real easy to have those states produce whatever result is desired. No trace would be left of tampering. None at all.

Ohio, however, is not one of those states. Most counties in Ohio still use the old reliable punchcard system.

So we have a paper trail.

If Democrats want to dispute the result using "voting machine cheating" as the reason, then the fact that Ohio counties using voting machine with paper trails won't change much. Now if Bush can lost in all counties of all states that have zero paper trail and still win the election then the "voting machine cheating" reasoning would be useless.

[LordMortis]

Yeah. I was none to thrilled with my touch screen style of voting this time around. As mentioned, should vote screw up, there is no tie back at all.

[Poleaxe]

Legal actions will probably revolve around the process of accepting or rejecting provisional ballots.

[qp]

I think both candidates will reveal their true identities:

Kang and Kodos!

[Papa Smurph]

But unless after counting the provisional votes Kerry is within 5,000 votes or so, I dont think we'll be seeing any lawyers. iF he is...ugg. For the well-being of the country, I just hope he isnt.

Well, it appears that you are correct. Kerry has called Bush to concede the election. I believe, and hope, that this means that no lawsuits will be filed that directly contest the results of the election.

My, my, I think we avoided a bullet here, folks! Our system still isn't working well (or we would have had better candidates to choose from IMO), but it's apparently not imploding under the pressure of this election.

[is_dead]

My post election prediction is that this will make everyone very, very happy:

Osama says "thank you Americans for this will ensure that the world continues to hate America and I get more recruits".

Prime Minister Paul Martin of Canada will solve the Lumber and Cow problems with the US by helping with missile defence, and by not mentioning the missile defence, make thousands of Canadians happy to be get the cash shoveling north once again.

A jump in first class air travel as business owners think about the money they'll get from poor people. Champagne, sir?

Steroid pumped fighter pilots sound off a 'hell yeah' because they'll be getting 'mo shit to blow up'.

Record Companies rejoice because their polished image of black people being criminals and living in ghettos will be true for at least another four years, thus contributing to the 'hood rap' genre.

Vladimir Putin is happy that no-one will question his "eliminate Chechens, I mean Chechen terrorists" plan.

Israel is happy that the US will look away the next time they bulldoze houses and shoot up a refugee camp fifty miles within Palestine.

See, everyone wins when Bush wins!!!!

[qp]

My post election prediction is that this will make everyone very, very happy:

Osama says "thank you Americans for this will ensure that the world continues to hate America and I get more recruits".

Prime Minister Paul Martin of Canada will solve the Lumber and Cow problems with the US by helping with missile defence, and by not mentioning the missile defence, make thousands of Canadians happy to be get the cash shoveling north once again.

A jump in first class air travel as business owners think about the money they'll get from poor people. Champagne, sir?

Steroid pumped fighter pilots sound off a 'hell yeah' because they'll be getting 'mo shit to blow up'.

Record Companies rejoice because their polished image of black people being criminals and living in ghettos will be true for at least another four years, thus contributing to the 'hood rap' genre.

Vladimir Putin is happy that no-one will question his "eliminate Chechens, I mean Chechen terrorists" plan.

Israel is happy that the US will look away the next time they bulldoze houses and shoot up a refugee camp fifty miles within Palestine.

See, everyone wins when Bush wins!!!!