The only three websites that matter

Tareeq · Post by **Tareeq** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:18 pm

Ohio's Secretary of State - presidential returns

Florida Department of State - now with less Katherine Harris!

Pennsylvania's Presidential returns

Keep hitting F5 as often as you see fit. Piss off the media flunkies who are doing the same thing!

MHS · Post by **MHS** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:20 pm

I thought Colorado was still a swing state? And New Mexico?

/me hates being so uneducated...

Tareeq · Post by **Tareeq** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:22 pm

Your puny western states will not matter to the man who owns two of these three. You might as well not even have a vote, cowpoke.

Padre · Post by **Padre** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:22 pm

MHS wrote:I thought Colorado was still a swing state? And New Mexico?

/me hates being so uneducated...

They are both possible swing states, but they simply don't have that many Electoral Votes.

Generally speaking, whoever takes the majority of the big three above will win the thing overall.

MHS · Post by **MHS** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:24 pm

OK, I guess I knew that on some level. I need to re-read up on electoral vs. popular vote and all that. Where's Schoolhouse Rock when I need it?

Tareeq · Post by **Tareeq** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:25 pm

Can you still sing the Preamble to the Constitution, MHS?

MHS · Post by **MHS** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:27 pm

I was always more a Conjunction Junction kinda girl.

But I can sing all 50 states in alphabetical order in less than 30 seconds!

Not helpful here, but... okay, not helpful anywhere really.

geezer · Post by **geezer** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:52 pm

kerry is being thrashed in FL, but trending up in OH. Interesting...

Pointer · Post by **Pointer** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:55 pm

Well you tend to get thrashed in counties where yor opponent is strong.

Wait until the democrat counties start being counted.

Pointer

Det. Dave · Post by **Det. Dave** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:58 pm

Very "simple" MHS...

When a candidate "wins" a state, all he is winning is a the right to choose who the electors from that state will be. Every state gets one elector for each member of congress (two senators per state, plus the congressmen from the House of Representatives). It's an all or nothing deal.

Each elector casts a vote for the candidate they want. In most states the electors are legally bound to cast their state for the candi that won the election, but in any event there's little chance that anyone would "betray" their party.

So, a big state that is "safe" , ie Texas for George Bush, doesn't get a lot of attention, but the states that are "swing" get all the media and campaign lovin'

Here's how the popular vote and the electoral vote can differ. Imagine if Candidate A won the following states by a slim margin of 50.1% to 49.9%
Georgia, New Jersey, North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, New York, Texas, California.

These 11 states have enough electoral votes to win the Presidency. They account for 57% of the population (about 166mil out of 290mil). So candidate A only needs 51.1% of 166mil or 83mil. Let's give him 84 million and Candidate B 82million of these votes.

Candidate B will lose even if he wins every other state. Now assume that the other 39 states vote 100% for Candidate B. The population for the other 39 states is about 125 million. Let's give them ALL to Candidate B (why not.. he still won't win enough electoral votes).

So Candidate A wins the election with his 84 mill from the Big 11 and Candidate B loses with 209 mill (82 from the big 11 and 125 from the "Little 39")

So out of 293 million votes Candidate A won with 28.6% of the vote and B lost with 71.4% of the vote.

Note: this assumes everyone votes (yeah, right) and unrealistic voting patterns. But is is POSSIBLE.

MHS · Post by **MHS** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:06 pm

Thank you, Det. Dave. You are much more succinct than my junior high school civics teacher.

Lee · Post by **Lee** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:10 pm

Well with all the democrats talk about how good it is looking, early on, it's looking better for Bush who is ahead in Ohio and Florida.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:14 pm

So far I don't think either side has reason to celebrate OR mourn. True to form, this close race seems to be...close.

Basically no switches from 2000 yet - Kerry is winning the Kerry states, Bush is winning the Bush states, and the toss-up states are still toss-ups.

We probably won't really get an idea who won until tomorrow morning, and we may not know until the end of the week or longer. Sigh.

Lee · Post by **Lee** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:20 pm

It's pretty sad that Edwards didn't get his home state.

And WY is already going for Bush, guess my vote didn't matter.

Tareeq · Post by **Tareeq** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 12:07 am

Lee wrote:It's pretty sad that Edwards didn't get his home state.

And WY is already going for Bush, guess my vote didn't matter.

Edwards never had a chance here. He was an absentee Senator for 4 of his 6 years in office. Had he chosen to run for reelection, he would have performed more poorly than Bowles, who is popular in North Carolina, ran a good campaign, and according to Brit Hume, just lost.

Edwards was chosen for his appeal to women, in the midwest to factory workers, and for charisma. This isn't meant as a slam (I've met Edwards and respect him highly) but he was chosen for the qualities Bush 41 thought he was getting with Quayle in 1988.

Hamsterball_Z · Post by **Hamsterball_Z** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 12:53 am

Looks like Florida is down. It's all on Ohio now.

strummer · Post by **strummer** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 1:07 am

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results ... px?race=PP

Interesting that the larger Democratic counties have the lowest reporting percentages.
Cuyahoga - 32.80% of precincts
Stark - 38.19%
Montgomery - 72.62%
Portage - 78.29%
Hamilton (pretty Rep. though) - 31.59%

Whereas the more rural Republican counites have 100% precincts reporting. Certainly something encouraging for the Democrats.