Official Octopus Overlords Election Game Day Thread (tm)

[Padre]

My analysis:

Bush 249 Kerry 217

Left in it:

Hawaii - probably will go for Kerry - 4
New Hampshire - trend toward Kerry - 4
Michigan - trend toward Kerry - 17
Nevada - slight edge for Kerry - 5
Wisconsin - slight edge to Kerry - 10
Iowa - exactly poised, who knows - 7

New Mexico - probably will go for Bush - 5
Ohio - well, I don't wanna give up, but - trend toward Bush - 20

It's still gonna be Bush 274 Kerry 264

[PR_GMR]

But, I do think Kerry could have easily won if some of the younger people got out and voted, however I still think your statement was offensive and idiotic.

Good.. Be offended and considered the statement as idiotic as you would like. I still stand by it. I'm not going to keep from posting my thoughts in fear of someone getting offended and playing the 'how dare he!' card. So take my comment.. put it in your pocket and keep on movin'.

More whining nonsense from the left.


Thank God.

Eco-logic. Same comment goes to you. I hardly ever post on R&P because of posters like you: Divise, Dismissive, and Disrespectful. Respond to the points noted in my post for a change instead of spewing typical Right-winged, mindless diatribe.

[Crabbs]

OK Night All looks pretty much over unless lawsuits come into play.

[Eco-Logic]

But, I do think Kerry could have easily won if some of the younger people got out and voted, however I still think your statement was offensive and idiotic.

Good.. Be offended and considered the statement as idiotic as you would like. I still stand by it. I'm not going to keep from posting my thoughts in fear of someone getting offended and playing the 'how dare he!' card. So take my comment.. put it in your pocket and keep on movin'.

More whining nonsense from the left.


Thank God.

Eco-logic. Same comment goes to you. I hardly ever post on R&P because of posters like you: Divise, Dismissive, and Disrespectful. Respond to the points noted in my post for a change instead of spewing typical Right-winged, mindless diatribe.

LOL, I'll back off then, I was just amused to hear whining so soon, that's all. Sorry.

[The Preacher]

Just a snapshot of the consequences of this Bush win: Thousands more American soldiers will die in Iraq

Immaterial. Was going to happen whether it was Kerry or Bush.

and in whichever subsequent war (Iraq, North Korea) as a result of Bush's 'pre-emptive war/spreading liberty' policy.

Perhaps. We shall see. I doubt it, but we shall see.

Iraq is now officially Vietnam II.

At the current rate, we will have the same number of deaths in both conflicts if we stay there through roughly 2062.

Private corporations will get richer.

Some will. Some won't.

More jobs will bleed outside the country.

Some will. Some won't.

Unemployment will continue to rise.

I'm not exactly sure when unemployment started rising again. Etc.

Jeebus, what the hell were the people who voted for Bush thinking?

Probably that the Democrats failed to nominate someone worth a damn.[/quote]

[jonsauce]

Jeebus, what the hell were the people who voted for Bush thinking?

I think we thought that at least we wouldn't have a president who changes his mind every 5 minutes.

I'm 22 and I voted for Bush because I don't buy into all the left wing BS that the average college student does.

[noxiousdog]

Just a snapshot of the consequences of this Bush win: Thousands more American soldiers will die in Iraq, and in whichever subsequent war (Iraq, North Korea) as a result of Bush's 'pre-emptive war/spreading liberty' policy. Iraq is now officially Vietnam II.. with Bush refusing to back down due to being obstinate. Private corporations will get richer. More jobs will bleed outside the country. Unemployment will continue to rise. The Rich will continue to get richer. The administration, thanks to the Patriot act, will continue to syphoon the privacy rights of Americans. The religious right will continue to pound their theology, ideology and morality into America in general. The separation of church and state will potentially crumble as Bush appoints one or more conservative judges to the Supreme Court. The Constitution will be raped.. with religion, homophobia and xenophobia being infused into it.

Jeebus, what the hell were the people who voted for Bush thinking?

Mainly that you're out of touch with reality

1) Thousands more can't die in Iraq, because thousands haven't died yet.
2) There is no other country with conditions that would neccessitate another preemtive war. There is no similiar UN resolution to 1441. There is no other world wide sanctioned country (NK, to a certain extent I gues). There is no other country that controls 130 billion barrels of oil, and affects the regional stability of 200 billion more.
3) It's not even close to Veitnam II. There is dwindling popular support for the insurgents, unlike the large popular support of the Veit Cong. There is no draft. As above, thousands haven't died.
4) Private corporations will always get richer. That's the nature of the beast. However, Bush wasn't running on a corporate tax cut (though it is neccessary IMHO), unlike John Kerry.
5) The Patriot Act will continue to get stricken down in courts, if it is even renewed (did that vote get done?)
6) The religious right is only 20% of the voting population. Is there a single law they have gotten changed in the previous 4 years? Despite the left's theories, the religious right does NOT account for the marraige laws that were passed tonight.
7) Strict constitutionalists in my opinion are a good thing, but that will have to be determined. Generally I find that Souter and O'Conner (both Republican nominations) are far more centrist than any of the Democrat appointments. Wouldn't it be nice to actually add more diversity to the court? Would Kerry add a Hispanic to the bench?

[Padre]

C-SPAN called New Hampshire for Kerry; an actual change from last year, everyone!

Not that it means shit.

[Coskesh]

Don't most college voters vote via absentee ballot?

I'd imagine the college crowd is largely pro-Kerry.

When do the ABs get counted?

Ah well, who cares. Congrats to the Bushies.

[The Preacher]

I hardly ever post on R&P because of posters like you: Divise, Dismissive, and Disrespectful. Respond to the points noted in my post for a change instead of spewing typical Right-winged, mindless diatribe.

Your comments don't exactly avoid the issues of divisiveness, dismissiveness and disrespect. Nor do they rise far about the level of a "Left winged, mindless diatribe".

Glass houses and all that jazz.

[The Preacher]

Fox calls MN for Kerry (if anyone still cares)

[noxiousdog]

The lawyers are decending on Ohio.

[Zarathud]

A thought before we call this Turkey of an election well done:

Did the Democratic "vote banking" by absentee ballot bite the party in the ass by removing large numbers of voters off the poll tracking and/or early counts? If it turns out to be close by a few thousand votes in Florida/Ohio, the perception of an initial winner will matter greatly for legitimacy.

Of course, on the other hand getting those votes may matter in the long run due to the extremely large lines for voting in both states. Maybe it's possible that absentee ballots won't change anything. What a crazy ride.

And before the ride crashes into post-election depression/jubilation, remember that Democracy isn't about getting the best result. It's about getting what the majority votes for. Even if the consequences are unpleasant. Stupid isn't unconstitutional, and at this point stupid even looks to be electable.

[dangerballs]

Don't most college voters vote via absentee ballot?

I'd imagine the college crowd is largely pro-Kerry.

When do the ABs get counted?

Ah well, who cares. Congrats to the Bushies.

A lot of absentees already have been. I think that Ohio's are already included in the count.

[Koz]

Looks like Bush should win it, but I honestly don't think this thing will be called tonight, unless Kerry concedes, and fat chance at that.

Depending on how many of these provisional ballots there are from Ohio, we could be talking about 11 days till this is officially decided.

[warning]

Looks like Bush should win it, but I honestly don't think this thing will be called tonight, unless Kerry concedes, and fat chance at that.

If I were a Kerry supporter I'd be angry if he did concede. I think it's his duty to make sure the votes are counted. Especially as close as Ohio is/was.

[Tareeq]

A friend just emailed me the true message of this election:

STOP!

Judge.

[Rincewind]

Word warning. Exactly.

[PR_GMR]

Your comments don't exactly avoid the issues of divisiveness, dismissiveness and disrespect. Nor do they rise far about the level of a "Left winged, mindless diatribe".

Glass houses and all that jazz.

You know... for once, I'm going to get into it with some of you about your attitudes. In GoneGold, this went on all the time.. Partisan threads which went on endlessly, with oodles of thinly disguised personal flames, until one person lost all their cool and went on a rant. Subsequently, that person gets banned and gets villified to the end of the time on the boards.

I would like to respond to Preacher and noxiousdog's post about my thread. So let's start shattering some of those 'glass houses'. To hell with it. Let's take the points I made on my original post and your points one by one, shall we? First, here's my post again:

Just a snapshot of the consequences of this Bush win: Thousands more American soldiers will die in Iraq, and in whichever subsequent war (Iraq, North Korea) as a result of Bush's 'pre-emptive war/spreading liberty' policy. Iraq is now officially Vietnam II.. with Bush refusing to back down due to being obstinate. Private corporations will get richer. More jobs will bleed outside the country. Unemployment will continue to rise. The Rich will continue to get richer. The administration, thanks to the Patriot act, will continue to syphoon the privacy rights of Americans. The religious right will continue to pound their theology, ideology and morality into America in general. The separation of church and state will potentially crumble as Bush appoints one or more conservative judges to the Supreme Court. The Constitution will be raped.. with religion, homophobia and xenophobia being infused into it.

Jeebus, what the hell were the people who voted for Bush thinking?

Preacher:

Immaterial. Was going to happen whether it was Kerry or Bush.

Maybe for you, life is cheap. Maybe you don't have a relative or a friend over there in Iraq, more or less, waiting to die at the hands of zealot-fundamentalist insurgent-cum-terrorists. My brother-in-law, who has three young children, is getting shipped to Iraq. Due to the horrid economy, he couldn't get a decent job to feed his children and re-enlisted in the army. Now he stands a considerable chance of getting his ass blown up as he casually refuels a jeep or something by a bunch of Iraqi nationals... which weren't terrorists in the first place.. because there NEVER was a concrete case proven that Iraq was involved in Terrorism. How wonderful of you to regard so casually the potential loss of perhaps thousands of American soldier lives? (/sarcasm)

Preacher:

Perhaps. We shall see. I doubt it, but we shall see

Well, get ready to see plenty. Open those eyes wide open. Bush is eyeing Iran... and could very likely choose to invade in the next 4 years... all in the name of 'spreading liberty' like it's some sort of butter. God help us if Iran has nuclear weapons at that point.

Preacher:

At the current rate, we will have the same number of deaths in both conflicts if we stay there through roughly 2062.

Perhaps so. I'll concede that point to you. But the thing is, Bush went into this war not fully knowing or bothering to anticipate the consequences of it. He should've known there would have been considerable insurgency. He should've known that 'democratizing' Iraq was going to be near impossible. You can't democratize a country that's firmly Islamic Fundamentalist; that religion doesn't allow for the kind of thinking we have here in the west. Even if America stays in Iraq for several years and some sort of shaky democratic government is established, civil war will likely erupt the moment American forces are withdrawn. The loss of American soldiers would have been for NOTHING.

Preacher:

Some will. Some won't.

Private corporations already have way too much power. Look at Microsoft. Bush will continue to bend backwards for them. You will see adverse effects to the environment.. to the economy... to privacy rights.. because of this issue.

Preacher:

I'm not exactly sure when unemployment started rising again. Etc

Have you been wearing a blindfold during the past 4 years? Jobs were lost in the thousands, month after month, as a result of the slumping economy. Where the hell should we send all these unemployed Americans? Greenland?! (/sarcasm)

Preacher:

Probably that the Democrats failed to nominate someone worth a damn

And the Republicans propped up a dim-witted, obstinate, lazy, unqualified man, and through nepetism and religious engineering made him the leader of the free world.

[The Preacher]

You can reply point by point (weakly imo but nonetheless) but your initial comments were just as divisive and vituperative as those you condemned. I fail to see how casting aspersions and denigrating a group of people reduces the level of invective that you feel has existed in the R&P here and at GG.

[WPD]

Go Dick Har(d)wood!

[noxiousdog]

I will be disapointed with Bush if he claims victory without a concession from Kerry.

GMR, I assume you're working something up for me?

[The Preacher]

Sen Edwards: (shockingly) wait another day, we promise to count every vote. good night.

[PR_GMR]

Now, a response for noxiousdog:

1) Thousands more can't die in Iraq, because thousands haven't died yet.
2) There is no other country with conditions that would neccessitate another preemtive war. There is no similiar UN resolution to 1441. There is no other world wide sanctioned country (NK, to a certain extent I gues). There is no other country that controls 130 billion barrels of oil, and affects the regional stability of 200 billion more.
3) It's not even close to Veitnam II. There is dwindling popular support for the insurgents, unlike the large popular support of the Veit Cong. There is no draft. As above, thousands haven't died.
4) Private corporations will always get richer. That's the nature of the beast. However, Bush wasn't running on a corporate tax cut (though it is neccessary IMHO), unlike John Kerry.
5) The Patriot Act will continue to get stricken down in courts, if it is even renewed (did that vote get done?)
6) The religious right is only 20% of the voting population. Is there a single law they have gotten changed in the previous 4 years? Despite the left's theories, the religious right does NOT account for the marraige laws that were passed tonight.
7) Strict constitutionalists in my opinion are a good thing, but that will have to be determined. Generally I find that Souter and O'Conner (both Republican nominations) are far more centrist than any of the Democrat appointments. Wouldn't it be nice to actually add more diversity to the court? Would Kerry add a Hispanic to the bench?

1. Again, another person to which the lives of American soldiers matters very little. At the rate the Iraq conflict is going, we won't be out of there for years. The casualties will pile on and they'll get to considerable numbers. And for what? Refer to my answer to Preacher about this issue.

2. Iran is getting on the verge of Bush's 'Spreading Liberty like it's Shed's Spread' pre-emptive policy. Bush will not hesitate to bypass the UN again and invade Iran if he 'feels' they have nuclear or biological weapons. Also, in your response, you're admitting that Bush waged war on Iraq due to oil. Whatever happened to waging war because there is no other course of action?

3. The insurgents are surely displaying an uncanny ability to grow in numbers. What happened during the waning days of the 'Iraq War' was this: Saddam's armies rolled over like seemingly tamed dogs... but in reality, they were waiting to leap in insurgency once they were let go from their kennels...because American forces thought they were innofensive. I even dare say that the grand majority of civilians in Iraq are on the side of the insurgents.

4. And you don't see a problem with Private corporations running amok... causing damage to the environment, exporting more jobs, and greedy company executives like those bastards are Enron extorting millions of dollars?

5. We shall see. I hope it continues to get stricken down. How would you like jackbooted cops tearing down your door at 3am and hauling your ass to jail just because 'you made some off-color remarks about Bush'? That's where things are heading if the Patriot act goes unchecked.

6. The religious right may only be 20% of the population... but with a preachin', prayin' President in office, it's gonna be like they're 60% of the population. They didn't change a single law in the past 4 years?... well, they got damn close, with Bush ALMOST ammending the constitution to pass the initiative that marriage should be only between a man and a woman. Let alone what they almost did to Abortion rights. I find these 'close calls' to be downright scary.

7. Yes, it would be nice if Bush would add more diversity to the court... but what he would most likely be adding to the court is more religious conservatism. One or two more religious, conservative judges added to the Supreme court and we could see prayer mandated in classrooms and abortions at any stage of pregnancy made illegal for example. And who knows what other ultra-conservative, religious-right madness they would ammend to the constitution.

[noxiousdog]

Well, now it's much easier to see why you don't understand the majority of the US.

You, sir, are a scary man.

[PR_GMR]

You can reply point by point (weakly imo but nonetheless) but your initial comments were just as divisive and vituperative as those you condemned. I fail to see how casting aspersions and denigrating a group of people reduces the level of invective that you feel has existed in the R&P here and at GG.

Right! You replied POINT BY POINT to me in the first place, Preacher.. so I guess that makes two of us being 'weak'. And yet, again, look at all the points which I made to you which you're not bothering to respond to. Could it be because you have no retort?

Cat got your tongue?

[noxiousdog]

You can reply point by point (weakly imo but nonetheless) but your initial comments were just as divisive and vituperative as those you condemned. I fail to see how casting aspersions and denigrating a group of people reduces the level of invective that you feel has existed in the R&P here and at GG.

Right! You replied POINT BY POINT to me in the first place, Preacher.. so I guess that makes two of us being 'weak'. And yet, again, look at all the points which I made to you which you're not bothering to respond to. Could it be because you have no retort?

Cat got your tongue?

You didn't ask for an arguement, you asked for an explanation. Obviously our perspectives are different.

And with that, I bid you, and everyone else a good night.

[The Preacher]

Right! You replied POINT BY POINT to me in the first place, Preacher.. so I guess that makes two of us being 'weak'. And yet, again, look at all the points which I made to you which you're not bothering to respond to. Could it be because you have no retort?

You replying wasn't weak, your actual replies were weak. But as I said, and please note this: Nonetheless. I said that because that was not the point of my most recent post. My actual point (the part not in parenthesis) was that you were not helping the tone of this forum by being just as angry in tone.

Cat got your tongue?

Not at all. Frankly, you failed to actually reply to my points and decided instead to prop up strawmen. That's your option but it's not a game I feel like getting into tonight. I've danced around topics with enough people to know how fruitless that discussion will be (that's my advantage in being an R&P semi-pro). Thanks for the offer though.

[PR_GMR]

Well, now it's much easier to see why you don't understand the majority of the US.

You, sir, are a scary man.

Call me whatever you want. Go ahead and stick labels. You too have no response to the points I've made.

I've expressed my views... and waited until Election Day to do so.. and it was about time. And I'm not ashamed.

You know how many ass-backward opinionated threads I've read through back in GoneGold?

The saying goes like this: Opinions are like assholes--everyone's got one. If you gonna be shitting all over the place, (even if you're shitting covertly or *with class* like many do around here) don't complain when someone shits back.

And it's 3am... and I must be somewhere.. Sleeping most likely. Regardless of all that I've said, I will have a cool head in the morning. Bush may have won. I will adapt and so will many others. Life goes on.

[GungHo]

NV was just projected for Bush.

Bush - 254
Kerry - 242

Almost 4 million more votes for Bush in the popular vote(not that it matters..)
Kerry has about a 12,000 vote lead in WI with 97% reporting...the CNN talking heads are sorta, kinda, maybe acting like they're going to call that state for him. THat'd give Kerry 10 more, and bring us to a virtual deadlock, with of course IA, OH, and NM yet to be decided.

[Steron]

According to ABC:

-OHIO-
Bush is up 136,000 votes

-IOWA-
Bush is up 156,000 votes

-New Mexico-
Bush is up 11,600 votes


This is another fiasco and a black eye to the US. Waiting in line 11 hours to vote in Ohio!?!?!? Give me a break. That's just horrible. Talk about being completely and utterly unprepared. I read that, by law, they are not allowed to count the provisional and absentee ballots until 11 days after the election. I don't get it. Why 11 days?

From CNN article:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/ ... index.html

"Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said that by law provisional and absentee ballots won't be counted until 11 days after the election. He said he could not immediately put an estimate on the number of those ballots, but he said 250,000 might not be out of the realm of possibility.

While he said the exact number of provisional ballots was unknown, he said it is "trending toward 175,000."

Ohio is the new Florida. Sigh.

[Mr. Sparkle]

According to ABC:

-OHIO-
Bush is up 136,000 votes

-IOWA-
Bush is up 156,000 votes

-New Mexico-
Bush is up 11,600 votes

It's closer than that in Iowa. More like Bush +16K. Not that it matters, since Iowa and New Mexico are irrelevant next to Ohio.

This is another fiasco and a black eye to the US. Waiting in line 11 hours to vote in Ohio!?!?!? Give me a break. That's just horrible. Talk about being completely and utterly unprepared. I read that, by law, they are not allowed to count the provisional and absentee ballots until 11 days after the election. I don't get it. Why 11 days?

From CNN article:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/ ... index.html

"Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said that by law provisional and absentee ballots won't be counted until 11 days after the election. He said he could not immediately put an estimate on the number of those ballots, but he said 250,000 might not be out of the realm of possibility.

While he said the exact number of provisional ballots was unknown, he said it is "trending toward 175,000."

Ohio is the new Florida. Sigh.

Yup, this one isn't over folks.

Though GW has the Big Mo, by being the incumbent and winning the popular vote....

Plus it seems unlikely that a high enough percentage of absentee ballots are going to "break" for JK...

But despite what Fox and Andy Card say, the election has not been decided.

[triggercut]

Y'know, in 2000, when Gore lost and we waited a few weeks on FL, he trailed there by less than 1,000 votes. "Let's make sure we count every vote" sure made sense then.

This morning as I get ready for work, Senator Kerry trails nationally by nearly 4 million votes. In the three "uncalled" states on CNN's map, he's nowhere close.

Hang it up, kiddo.

Here's hoping against hope for four better years.

[The Meal]

Damn, Meal, it's not even 10pm where you are! Stay up with your east coast brethren!

I'm an early to bed, early to rise kind of guy.

~Neal

[Captain Caveman]

Damn, Meal, it's not even 10pm where you are! Stay up with your east coast brethren!

I'm an early to bed, early to rise kind of guy.

~Neal

Hell, I wish I followed your lead. I stayed up waiting for some hope to develop, but it never came.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Y'know, in 2000, when Gore lost and we waited a few weeks on FL, he trailed there by less than 1,000 votes. "Let's make sure we count every vote" sure made sense then.

This morning as I get ready for work, Senator Kerry trails nationally by nearly 4 million votes. In the three "uncalled" states on CNN's map, he's nowhere close.

Hang it up, kiddo.

Here's hoping against hope for four better years.

If it was about court challenges, then I would agree, but we may have +250k uncounted votes in Ohio. Just count the damn votes.

While I don't think it's likely that anything will change, the votes should be counted before Kerry conceeds.

[Steron]

Hmmm. CNN.com is reporting

-New Mexico (99% in)-
335,311 Bush
323,691 Kerry
--------
11,620

-Iowa (99% in)-
741,325 Bush
725,700 Kerry
--------
15,625

-Ohio (100% in)-
2,794,346 Bush
2,658,125 Kerry
----------
136,221

If there are 250,000 outstanding votes, (I think it will be less than 200,000) it will be very difficult for Senator Kerry to pull off Ohio. I believe Bush has won the election.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

If they actually have 250,000 provisional ballots (which I doubt) and the majority of those ballots are valid (again, which I doubt), Kerry would only have to win ~54% of those votes. Considering that most (all?) provisional ballots come from newly registered voters, it's not that inconcievable that Kerry could win the majority of those votes.

[Trent Steel]

If they actually have 250,000 provisional ballots (which I doubt) and the majority of those ballots are valid (again, which I doubt), Kerry would only have to win ~54% of those votes.

I'm not a math major, but my figures tell me that Kerry would need to have ~77% of the (hypothetical 250,000) provisional ballots go his way. He first needs 136,221 to offset the current margin and then needs another 56,890 to take the lead.

Not bloody likely.

Trent Steel lives.

[The Preacher]

How many provisional ballots are outstanding in PA? Anyone know? I'm curious why a margin of 120k in PA is Blue, while a 130k margin in OH is too close to call. I'm assuming it's the number of provisional and/or absentee ballots but I haven't heard any numbers bandied about.