Hot La Rosita gossip... The night belongs to Kerry.

rrmorton · Post by **rrmorton** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:26 pm

A fellow La Rosita regular is John Calvin Batchelor, an author and radio host for WABC here in NYC. He's been on the phone all afternoon gathering exit poll info from his contacts and he just handed me a notepad with the following exit poll information as of 4:20pm:

Kerry = 310-320

Obviously it's early and rumor-licious but I don't care. That's a sizable lead. I'm buzzing with excitement. Or is it cafe con leche?

He also reports:

GOP Senate = 53

GOP House = 232

Padre · Post by **Padre** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:27 pm

Yay for deadlock.

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:31 pm

http://www.zogby.com/

2004 Presidential Election

Electoral Votes:

Bush
213

Kerry
311

To Close To Call
Nevada (5)

To Close To Call
Colorado (9)

Dirt · Post by **Dirt** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:32 pm

If he wins, Kerry owes it all to Gore and the Supreme Court.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:32 pm

Yep, looks like the GOP is going to gain ground in Congress again here, as the La Rosita numbers seem to jibe with exit polling.

Pointer · Post by **Pointer** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:34 pm

Let's hope it's true! Will we be looking back at this and thinking, wow how wrong were we?! Or will we be seeing the turning point for "President Kerry".....

Let's hope it's the latter.

Pointer

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:34 pm

Dirt wrote:If he wins, Kerry owes it all to Gore and the Supreme Court.

If Kerry owes it to anyone, he owes it to Bush.

Dirt · Post by **Dirt** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:36 pm

Nade wrote:
Dirt wrote:If he wins, Kerry owes it all to Gore and the Supreme Court.

If Kerry owes it to anyone, he owes it to Bush.

How dare you! Bush is a uniter, not a divider!

rrmorton · Post by **rrmorton** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:39 pm

An hour later, he says the numbers are holding true for the presidential race.

The Senate number might be down from GOP 53 to 52.

Biggest issue determining the vote? The economy.

Dirt · Post by **Dirt** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:40 pm

Of course it's the economy, stupid.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:40 pm

BTW--I don't think I'd mind a split in the parties controlling congress and the guy serving as Chief Executive *at all*. I thought Carter, Clinton, Bush 41, and Bush 43 did some of their worst work when they had one or both houses of Congress in the fold. I think Clinton and fellas like Richard Nixon and Harry Truman did some of their best work when they had an opposition legislature.

Anyone ever tells you their party has a hotline to god with all the answers...well, they're lying.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:41 pm

Well, it looks like most californians I've talked to are united in the effort to get him the hell out of office.

Dirt · Post by **Dirt** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:41 pm

If Kerry wins, that's 2 seats in the Senate without a Democratic Senator.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:46 pm

Bowles appears to be in trouble as far as retaining Edwards' seat in NC.

I think you can put the chances of MA sending a Republican Senator to the Hill right up there with frosty days in hell. Not sure what the state law is there, but if Kerry wins, the Governor would probably appoint a Senator to serve until the next election cycle, probably 2006.

PR_GMR · Post by **PR_GMR** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:46 pm

We shall see, Galvatron. We shall see.

I'm hoping for a Kerry win... but wouldn't be surprised if things take a turn later tonight. 8)

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:47 pm

Padre wrote:Yay for deadlock.

I don't know whether you are serious or not, but if you are, I'm with you. Either party in total control is a disaster if you are a political moderate such as myself. Look at Bush's deficit creating tax cuts - would have never happened if he had had a Demo congress. And a Repub congress restrained all that Clinton would have done.

Hurray for gridlock!

Grifman

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:49 pm

triggercut wrote:BTW--I don't think I'd mind a split in the parties controlling congress and the guy serving as Chief Executive *at all*. I thought Carter, Clinton, Bush 41, and Bush 43 did some of their worst work when they had one or both houses of Congress in the fold. I think Clinton and fellas like Richard Nixon and Harry Truman did some of their best work when they had an opposition legislature.

Anyone ever tells you their party has a hotline to god with all the answers...well, they're lying.

In a rare moment, we both agree. Gridlock restrains the worst tendencies in either party.

Grifman

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:59 pm

Drazzil wrote:Well, it looks like most californians I've talked to are united in the effort to get him the hell out of office.

WELCOME DRAZZIL! Glad you made it over to the 'Pus.

Biyobi · Post by **Biyobi** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:06 pm

Grifman wrote:In a rare moment, we both agree. Gridlock restrains the worst tendencies in either party.

Grifman

Werd. One of the main purposes of the three branches is keep government in general from doing too much damage to the country. A split in Executive and Legislative party affiliation is a GOOD thing.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:08 pm

From Race2004

The online betting sites (Intrade and Tradesports) apparently had a massive shift to Kerry today. Kerry shares jumped from $45/share to $75/share today. (Bush and Kerry shares trade in at $100 if they win the election, $0 if they lose).

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:10 pm

Gridlock is, in general good, but the Clinton years showed that the partisanship on both sides can become shrill.

(Then again, we're seen the same thing during the Bush years - so it's probably irrelevent

)

Dirt · Post by **Dirt** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:22 pm

I wonder who Kerry will get a BJ from?

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:23 pm

I think if Kerry wins tonight, then Republicans keeping Congress is a nice silver lining to have. It will definitely make a bitter pill a lot easier to swallow. It should keep Kerry's domestic spending in check, which should also keep a tax hike off the table for awhile.

I'm MUCH more worried about Kerry's foreign policy than his domestic policy though. Look for Al-Qaeda to put Kerry to the test very quickly. God I hope he passes it rather than being a limp-dick like Clinton.

I totally agree about gridlock though. When it comes to government, sometimes getting nothing done is better than having the pendulum swing too far in either direction.

gellar · Post by **gellar** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:32 pm

Dirt wrote:I wonder who Kerry will get a BJ from?

For his sake, I hope it's not his wife. Dear god is she hideous.

Flatlander · Post by **Flatlander** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:46 pm

gellar wrote:
Dirt wrote:I wonder who Kerry will get a BJ from?
For his sake, I hope it's not his wife. Dear god is she hideous.

Oh come on, it's not as if he has to look at her while she's doing it.

Dirt · Post by **Dirt** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:01 pm

YellowKing wrote:I think if Kerry wins tonight, then Republicans keeping Congress is a nice silver lining to have. It will definitely make a bitter pill a lot easier to swallow. It should keep Kerry's domestic spending in check, which should also keep a tax hike off the table for awhile.

Republicans can hardly complain about fiscal irresponsibility after what Bush has run up.

The past 2 years has been all Republicans. Good and ill.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:07 pm

YellowKing wrote:God I hope he passes it rather than being a limp-dick like Clinton.

From what we now know, I don't think Clinton's dick was ever limp

Grifman

Incendiary Lemon · Post by **Incendiary Lemon** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:07 pm

triggercut wrote:Not sure what the state law is there, but if Kerry wins, the Governor would probably appoint a Senator to serve until the next election cycle, probably 2006.

The legislature was pushing a special election bill last session. I don't know if it was enacted.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:11 pm

I'm incommunicado until late tonight and I'm relieved but nervous at this point. I've got the DVD-R setup to tape NBC all night.