Post your exit polls here

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:14 pm

Well the first leaked set is out, keep in mind it's way early.

........ AZ CO LA MI WI PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 51 52 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 48 48 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/11/2/135756/299

geezer · Post by **geezer** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:16 pm

Florida 51/48 Kerry/Bush?????

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:19 pm

Meaningless without more data. Some of those look statistically "off."

PA 60-40 Kerry? Yeah, right -- nowhere close to being final numbers.

~Neal

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:21 pm

The Meal wrote:Meaningless without more data. Some of those look statistically "off."

PA 60-40 Kerry? Yeah, right -- nowhere close to being final numbers.

~Neal

Fully agreed, but it's still fun to post them as they come out to see how they evolve.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:24 pm

Remember, these are exit polls. They're going to change a lot over the day. At this point, they're probably more biased to early voters (and possibly not all areas of the states will be updates as frequently)

Mr. Sparkle · Post by **Mr. Sparkle** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:25 pm

Mystery Pollster on Exit Polls

Synopsis.

1) Mid day polls could have a margin of error of +/- 7%.
2) They are not weighted by actual voter turnout (which is the final numbers that networks use to call states)
3) 15% of all registered voters used absentee ballots.

It's a great article and worth a read.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:27 pm

Mr. Sparkle wrote:Mystery Pollster on Exit Polls

Synopsis.

1) Mid day polls could have a margin of error of +/- 7%.
2) They are not weighted by actual voter turnout (which is the final numbers that networks use to call states)
3) 15% of all registered voters used absentee ballots.

It's a great article and worth a read.

I just read that myself, everyone should read it. Interesting stuff.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:41 pm

From NRO:

RUMOR [NRO Staff]
bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa

As Kathryn said, these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt.

Mr. Fed · Post by **Mr. Fed** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:05 pm

I get a 100% result for "sod off, you nosy bastard."

Biyobi · Post by **Biyobi** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:11 pm

Mr. Fed wrote:I get a 100% result for "sod off, you nosy bastard."

You're voting in Britain?

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:13 pm

btw--these polls are unweighted, unadjusted raw data. Period. They reflect very little as of now.

One thing I'm curious about: these are just "exits" from voters leaving the polls, yes? They don't take into account the "early vote"?

That's the only stock I put in these. If the Miami Herald, Columbus Dispatch, and Des Moines register can be believed, Kerry had a lead in the early voting in FL, OH, and IA. Again, grain of salt, grain of salt.

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:36 pm

Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...

Crabbs · Post by **Crabbs** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:45 pm

Eco-Logic wrote:
Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...

But I thought Bush had been polling well with women over the last weeks... Or am I way wrong?

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:46 pm

Crabbs wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:
Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
But I thought Bush had been polling well with women over the last weeks... Or am I way wrong?

I really have no idea.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:50 pm

Crabbs wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:
Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
But I thought Bush had been polling well with women over the last weeks... Or am I way wrong?

Acrually, some of the latest polls give Kerry the edge.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:58 pm

Saner numbers, more in keeping with what we've seen in recent polling from Slate:

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53

Numbers include *no* "early voting".

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:59 pm

Nade wrote:
Crabbs wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:
Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
But I thought Bush had been polling well with women over the last weeks... Or am I way wrong?
Acrually, some of the latest polls give Kerry the edge.

Early exit polls were completely skewed. Kerry up 20 points in PA, yea right.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:01 pm

Eco-Logic wrote:
Nade wrote:
Crabbs wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:
Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
But I thought Bush had been polling well with women over the last weeks... Or am I way wrong?
Acrually, some of the latest polls give Kerry the edge.
Early exit polls were completely skewed. Kerry up 20 points in PA, yea right.

Well, of course those are scewed right now, as has been pointed out. What I posted, though, was a traditional before-the-election poll that gave Kerry the edge among women voters.

Meghan · Post by **Meghan** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:02 pm

trigger, where are your numbers from, please?

edited to add - oh wait, is "from Slate" modifying "saner numbers" or "what we've seen?"

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:05 pm

Any word on how Nader's doing? (not that these numbers would give much indication, as skewed as they are.)

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:05 pm

Nade wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:
Nade wrote:
Crabbs wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:
Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
But I thought Bush had been polling well with women over the last weeks... Or am I way wrong?
Acrually, some of the latest polls give Kerry the edge.
Early exit polls were completely skewed. Kerry up 20 points in PA, yea right.
Well, of course those are scewed right now, as has been pointed out. What I posted, though, was a traditional before-the-election poll that gave Kerry the edge among women voters.

Oh, I understand, I had just read something on how skewed the early exit polls were and posted without realizing I was quoting you.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:07 pm

Meghan wrote:trigger, where are your numbers from, please?

edited to add - oh wait, is "from Slate" modifying "saner numbers" or "what we've seen?"

Aye, from Slate, where they swear they're taking them right from the NEP.

Again, not weighted for demographics or precincts, and include no "early voting".

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:12 pm

Man, is this sucker looking tight.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:23 pm

There's no way in HELL it's Bush 51 Kerry 49 in North Carolina. That right there pretty much invalidated that entire string of numbers.

Post by **godhugh** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:33 pm

YellowKing wrote:There's no way in HELL it's Bush 51 Kerry 49 in North Carolina. That right there pretty much invalidated that entire string of numbers.

Well, with the reports of MASSIVE minority turnout, I can see this being a possibility. Not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:35 pm

godhugh wrote: Well, with the reports of MASSIVE minority turnout, I can see this being a possibility. Not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Yes, I agree. Unlikely, but possible with huge democratic turnout and lower republican turnout.

And here's some specifics on the turnout:

Here are some early turnout reports from CNN.

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

http://www.race2004.net/

Note. the site is slow due to heavy useage.

Post by **godhugh** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:55 pm

Here's the latest batch of exit polls I found:

FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:06 pm

godhugh wrote:Here's the latest batch of exit polls I found:

FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH

Any chance of a link?

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:07 pm

MyDD.com has them, and attributes them to Wonkette.

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:20 pm

Wonkette exit polls, nevermind we'll just have to wait and see.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:21 pm

Eco-Logic wrote:Wonkette exit polls, nevermind we'll just have to wait and see.

Confirmed: her numbers were from Slate, who again claim to be listing them straight from the NEP source.

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:22 pm

triggercut wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:Wonkette exit polls, nevermind we'll just have to wait and see.
Confirmed: her numbers were from Slate, who again claim to be listing them straight from the NEP source.

OK, her first numbers were nothing but bogus crap.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:23 pm

Eco-Logic wrote:Wonkette exit polls, nevermind we'll just have to wait and see.

Um.

Duh.

Of course we're going to have to wait and see. Exit poll numbers are sort of given as an FYI, not as a "here's where we think things'll end up." And that goes whether they support your horse or my horse-faced president elect.

~Neal

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:25 pm

The Meal wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:Wonkette exit polls, nevermind we'll just have to wait and see.
Um.

Duh.

Of course we're going to have to wait and see. Exit poll numbers are sort of given as an FYI, not as a "here's where we think things'll end up." And that goes whether they support your horse or my horse-faced president elect.

~Neal

The comment was due to Wonkette's first poll numbers.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:32 pm

Yeah, you snuck your explanation response in before I had got mine out. I like my horse-faced joke, though, so I'll leave it.

~Neal

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:37 pm

The Meal wrote:Yeah, you snuck your explanation response in before I had got mine out. I like my horse-faced joke, though, so I'll leave it.

~Neal

LOL, fine by me, made me laugh, which I need right now.

Eco-Logic · Post by **Eco-Logic** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:40 pm

Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

In early 2000, exit polls showed: Gore +3 in Florida;
Gore-Bush even in CO (Bush won by 9)
Gore +4 in AZ (Bush won by 6)

Senate Thune +4 (SD) (vs. Daschle)
Castor +3 (FL) (vs. Martinez)
Burr +6 (NC)
Bunning +6 (KT)
Coburn +6 (OK)
Demint +4 (SC)
Salazar +4 (CO) (vs. Coors)

Rich in KCK · Post by **Rich in KCK** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:14 pm

Eco-Logic wrote:Kerry-Bush

MO Bush +11

I wonder if the MO streak will break this year. With the exception of 1956 they have picked the winner every time since 1900.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:17 pm

Rich in KCK wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:Kerry-Bush

MO Bush +11

I wonder if the MO streak will break this year. With the exception of 1956 they have picked the winner every time since 1900.

Ohio might be the new state to look at: it's picked the winner every time since 1900, with the exception of 1960.

Rich in KCK · Post by **Rich in KCK** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:27 pm

Nade wrote:
Rich in KCK wrote:
Eco-Logic wrote:Kerry-Bush

MO Bush +11

I wonder if the MO streak will break this year. With the exception of 1956 they have picked the winner every time since 1900.
Ohio might be the new state to look at: it's picked the winner every time since 1900, with the exception of 1960.

From Slate:

Missouri's presidential voting record trumps even that of Ohio, which has voted for the loser twice in the past 26 elections.

The only reason I remembered this was Al Michaels brought it up on Monday Night Football a few weeks back.