Tracking Electoral-Vote.com

[The Meal]

Since the last time I posted these charts I got such a raucous response (raucous means 'non-existant,' right?)...

Taking the data from http://www.electoral-vote.com and plotting results by date gives us some sense for the feel of how the electoral break-downs will look. You'll see that as of today's numbers, states are starting to get a bit more polarized with votes moving away from the "undecided" area and more toward one of the two extreme positions.

The first set of charts are from the raw tracking data, unmanipulated (other than the decision made regarding which poll gets used to determine the state's categorization). The second pair of charts is the manipulated data that the Kerry-supporting site owner has used to predict the final break-down of votes. Note that while some of his assumptions (which are listed on this page) may seem a bit weasley considering his allegiances, this report claiming unpolled cell-phone users support Kerry 55% to 41% may help make up for some of the biases assumed in his data. We'll find out in the next few months (hopefully).

So, Current Polling Status by Date:
270 for the Win (note the ordinate only goes down to 170 Electoral College votes, not down to zero -- I'm not trying to make one candidate's lead look larger, percentagewise, than the other's, just trying to allow folk's to visualize the actual difference between the two totals)


Strength of Support


Predicted final Electoral College Votes (with caveats as listed here)
By Candidate (270 for the win)


By Strength of Support


Notez Bien: I don't put a lot of stock in www.e-v.com's methods for determining state winners for many reasons that I've mentioned in other threads. Just thought this was an interesting organization of his (flawwed?) data that other dirty OOers may have wanted to see.

~Neal

[edit: had wrong graph displayed]

[Crabbs]

Graphically it suggests to me that both have really solidified their base (duh), with Bush solidifying his slightly better than Kerry. The trends are all based on those Swinging Voters where it looks like Kerry has slowly but consistently chipped away at the weak Bush and converted them to weak Kerry, which is better for Kerry than just trading them in to iffy Kerry.

But as we all can agree upon, turnout will swing this election. Just my Gut feeling: it will be a HUGE turnout hopefully swining the election easily to Kerry

[Hetz]

Yep, I think there will be a record voter turnout this year and the election will easily go to Kerry.

[RunningMn9]

Didn't we already determine from that Zogby report that there is absolutely ZERO cell phone bias?

I think this election comes down to two historical trends.

1) Undecideds break heavily for challenger.
2) Young people are passionate, and yet lazy - and result in a vocal demographic that doesn't actually vote.

If history holds, Kerry will win this with a razor thin margin, and it will take a good deal of time to sort out.

It trend #1 is reversed by a combination of Kerry being disliked enough, and the "don't change horses while there's a war going on" mentality, and trend #2 holds - then I think Bush wins comfortably tomorrow night (this is my guess).

If trend #2 is reversed, and the youth stop being lazy for once, and trend #1 holds - then Kerry wins EASILY.

If neither trend #1 or trend #2 hold - then this is a toss up, and we'll hope to have it figured out by Christmas.

EDIT: Also, just to show at least some logic behind my guess, I am basing that on my read of the Rasmussen polling internals at this point in the campaign.

National Tracking Poll: Bush 48, Kerry 47 (same as Zogby)
Bush Job Approval: 51

Bush: Favorable 52, Unfavorable 47
Kerry: Favorable 51, Unfavorable 48

And here's the parts I'm focused on for where undecideds will break:

Better Leader: Bush 49, Kerry 41
Trust on Natl Defense: Bush 51, Kerry 44
Trust on Economy: Bush 48, Kerry 47


If Kerry couldn't even get the economy to goes his way - I cannot see the undecideds breaking for Kerry. With terrorism thoughts abounding, and an ongoing war - the fact that Bush is viewed as the better leader, and more trustable on national defense *and* the economy. Well, it the undecideds break for Kerry, then they are stupid.

[Crabbs]

RM9 -

The cell phone bias has been beatten to death, but I guess I am still confused about it.

So do these (regular) polls adjust for the younger age group (18-29) in their phone surveys as XX% of the RV and LV? OR Is it that 18-29 is being undersurveyed (not enough included as a % in the regular surveys) because they don't have a land line?

Does that make sense?[/i]

[RunningMn9]

RM9 -

The cell phone bias has been beatten to death, but I guess I am still confused about it.

So do these (regular) polls adjust for the younger age group (18-29) in their phone surveys as XX% of the RV and LV? OR Is it that 18-29 is being undersurveyed (not enough included as a % in the regular surveys) because they don't have a land line?

Does that make sense?

The original claim was that they were being undersurveyed because they don't have a land line. But according to the way that I read the Zogby report, the polling data that they have using landlines showed the same demographic info as the cell phone data.

The pollsters know the size of the 18-29 demographic, and know how to get their sample of 1000 people to accurately reflect that.

[setaside]

I think this election comes down to two historical trends.

1) Undecideds break heavily for challenger.
2) Young people are passionate, and yet lazy - and result in a vocal demographic that doesn't actually vote.

If history holds, Kerry will win this with a razor thin margin, and it will take a good deal of time to sort out.

It trend #1 is reversed by a combination of Kerry being disliked enough, and the "don't change horses while there's a war going on" mentality, and trend #2 holds - then I think Bush wins comfortably tomorrow night (this is my guess).

If trend #2 is reversed, and the youth stop being lazy for once, and trend #1 holds - then Kerry wins EASILY.

If neither trend #1 or trend #2 hold - then this is a toss up, and we'll hope to have it figured out by Christmas.

I think your predictions on what could happen are on the money. I'm pulling for Trend #2 being reversed.

[Peacedog]

Hey, this is the guy who wrote my Operating Systems text book, which has the distinction of being one of the densest text's I've ever owned.

I'm pulling for Trend #2 being reversed.

Maybe if MTV asks them to Rock the Vote a few extra times? Sorry, couldn't resist.

[RunningMn9]

Hey, this is the guy who wrote my Operating Systems text book, which has the distinction of being one of the densest text's I've ever owned.

Who is the guy that wrote that book? That was my Operating Systems text book as well.

But I don't understand your post at all.

[Peacedog]

Who is the guy that wrote that book? That was my Operating Systems text book as well.

Andrew S Tenenbaum wrote the book, and is also responsible for the www.electorial-vote.com website. All of this I gleaned from the FAQ Meal linked to in his initital post. Clearly mocking the banker's algorithim is not all Mr Tenebaum does in his free time (and good for him; it's good to diversify).

Or did you think I just threw the part about "this is the guy who published my OS text book" in from leftfield, or way out as it were (if so, I can see the confusion, I should have been more clear about the connection)? Or were you asking about what I mean by "dense"?

[gellar]

Didn't we already determine from that Zogby report that there is absolutely ZERO cell phone bias?

I think this election comes down to two historical trends.

1) Undecideds break heavily for challenger.
2) Young people are passionate, and yet lazy - and result in a vocal demographic that doesn't actually vote.

If history holds, Kerry will win this with a razor thin margin, and it will take a good deal of time to sort out.

It trend #1 is reversed by a combination of Kerry being disliked enough, and the "don't change horses while there's a war going on" mentality, and trend #2 holds - then I think Bush wins comfortably tomorrow night (this is my guess).

If trend #2 is reversed, and the youth stop being lazy for once, and trend #1 holds - then Kerry wins EASILY.

If neither trend #1 or trend #2 hold - then this is a toss up, and we'll hope to have it figured out by Christmas.

Nice analysis, home fry.

gellar

[RunningMn9]

Or did you think I just threw the part about "this is the guy who published my OS text book" in from leftfield, or way out as it were (if so, I can see the confusion, I should have been more clear about the connection)? Or were you asking about what I mean by "dense"?

I skipped Meal's link (no offense ), and got confused. For a microsecond, I thought that setaside was Tenenbaum.

Although I actually liked that text book quite a bit and didn't find it dense at all.

[setaside]

For a microsecond, I thought that setaside was Tenenbaum.

[Defiant]

.

[RunningMn9]

I've got that book around somewhere. But if you think that books dense, you've clearly not looked at any theoretical math books where the proofs are left as an excercise for the reader

The two most painful books I had were a book on Differential Equations, and a book on Digital Electronics - with the second being the most unpossible thing I've ever come across. Substrates...ewww.

Anyway, I'm glad that setaside is NOT Tenenbaum.

[The Meal]

You people absolutely refuse to live up to 'raucous,' don't you? Next time I'm using 'geeky-networky-booky-likey.'

~Neal