Can John Kerry really win on Tuesday?

Pointer · Post by **Pointer** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 2:17 pm

Hi guys,

Everything I have read in the past few weeks have suggested that this election is Bush's to lose. Every poll shows Bush ahead, recent (less than a week old) polling in Florida show Bush ahead there. Can John Kerry really win this election? Is there any hope at all for him or does he have to upset the odds in so many states that it is just not going to happen?

I personally cannot see John Kerry winning. I would love it if he did, I just can't see it happening. The "terror tape" this week has to help Bush by bringing National Security to the forefront of people's minds. I think that Bush is going to win Florida and I think he will win Ohio too. Without those two states there is now way that Kerry can win (is there?).

What are your thoughts guys?

Pointer

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 3:18 pm

The polls don't mean anything. Someone said that if the lines are long at the polls, and there are a good number of young people, Kerry will win. I believe that more than the polls, because the margin of error is enough to make Kerry ahead on most of those polls.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 3:29 pm

I read somewhere that Bush is losing, but Kerry isn't winning it. We won't elect Kerry, but we just might fire Bush.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 3:37 pm

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 3:40 pm

Tareeq · Post by **Tareeq** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 3:59 pm

As has been pointed out, old polling models are less reliable than ever. In addition to those who don't answer polls we have the cell phone demographic.

Finally, there's the registration and turnout factor, which is likely not modelled in the current depiction of a likely voter. Republicans did a better job of turning out their vote in 2002 than in previous elections and the Democrats have certainly learned from that themselves.

We may still get a blowout, for one side or the other, but Tuesday night on paper looks to be an excellent matchup.

Freezer-TPF- · Post by **Freezer-TPF-** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:30 pm

Apparently, the Vegas odds are giving Bush a slight edge

Bush: 6-5 (slipped from the 7-5 he had in August)
Kerry: even money

http://texascitysun.com/story.lasso?wcd=7149

It should be an interesting night. I don't want to deal with the pre-work/school crowds so I will vote after work, probably within an hour of the polls closing here in VA. The big question: After Russert's little white dry erase board from 2000, which office supply item will step up and take the spotlight THIS time? Will he go to chalk? Powerpoint?

Fireball · Post by **Fireball** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:40 pm

National polls are meaningless, of course. The popular vote matters nil.

Kerry is in a very good position to perhaps run the entire FL-OH-WI triple crown... and in a slightly better position to do that than Bush. I'm using recent polling numbers and some guestimates regarding how last minute undecideds will break (and how many just flat out won't vote).

At this point, I'd give the chances of a pop/elect vote split to be better than even.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Sun Oct 31, 2004 4:55 pm

Also, keep in mind that Bush's numbers have been fairly steady, if not falling slightly, these last two months or so. Kerry's numbers on the other hand have been moving up. At least from what I can tell.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 2:31 am

Bush will prevail with 276, 280, 296 or 300 electoral votes.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:06 am

Grundbegriff wrote:Bush will prevail with 276, 280, 296 or 300 electoral votes.

I'm going with 296. Yes, it is a number derived from a very very scientific study. (ok, it's a guess)

Abiding Dude · Post by **Abiding Dude** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:11 am

I think Kerry will win with over 300 electoral votes. But that's just a guess

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:25 am

Kerry will win easily.

Didn't you watch the Packers vs Redskins game? The Redskins lost, so GWB is going to lose for sure! It's been the same in the last 17 elections!

Poleaxe · Post by **Poleaxe** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 10:22 am

Hetz wrote:Kerry will win easily.

Didn't you watch the Packers vs Redskins game? The Redskins lost, so GWB is going to lose for sure! It's been the same in the last 17 elections!

Do you follow baseball?

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:21 am

Poleaxe wrote:
Hetz wrote:Kerry will win easily.

Didn't you watch the Packers vs Redskins game? The Redskins lost, so GWB is going to lose for sure! It's been the same in the last 17 elections!
Do you follow baseball?

Not really...but the Boston Red Sox won, so that is good news for Kerry as well!

Anyway, I do think that Kerry has this election in the bag. GWB is losing ground day by day. I predict a record voter turnout and that ALWAYS favors Democrats.

Kerry is going to shock a ton of people and pull off the easy victory...at least until Bush, seeing that he lost, declares the results null and void and a plot by the terrorists to weaken the country, and declares himself EMPEROR! 8)

Then it's Civil War!

Or something like that.

Coskesh · Post by **Coskesh** » Mon Nov 01, 2004 12:15 pm

Without that bogus ref call, looked like the skins were gonna take the lead and win. I wouldn't bet the house on the skins game.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:48 pm

Can John Kerry really win on Tuesday?

A week ago I would have thought no way, but early returns are very encouraging. Seems like in just the past few days I keep hearing support for Kerry.

Pointer · Post by **Pointer** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:52 pm

On Sunday when I posted this I was doubtful that Kerry could win. Now, on Tuesday, I am hopeful that he can and indeed looking at the media and polls (yes, yes, I know grain of blah blah blah) I think that there is a real chance that Kerry CAN win tonight (or early tomorrow morning).

Pointer

qp · Post by qp » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:05 pm

Kerry could win, but so could Bush...I figure I'll find out on Wednesday

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 5:07 pm

qp wrote:Kerry could win, but so could Bush...I figure I'll find out on Wednesday

...January 5th, 2005

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 2:38 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Bush will prevail with 276, 280, 296 or 300 electoral votes.

Or, uhm, 286.

Dirt · Post by **Dirt** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 3:09 pm

Obviously, no.