Octopus Overlords

Scoop20906 wrote:Hmmm. Which way is Mr. Happy pointing?


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This game is taking a turn I didn't sign up for..

Punisher wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:Hmmm. Which way is Mr. Happy pointing?

This game is taking a turn I didn't sign up for..

Didn't the choice between Manipulator and Prober give you a hint though?

So..... did we seriously lose 3 specials in RMC, Zarathud, and El Guapo?

I would think we had the Seer, Protector, and Shooter. I think now is when we would want to get some clarity and not risk a night kill against any special that is still alive. Just my opinion of course... Not some little plan for the village.

Unagi wrote:So..... did we seriously lose 3 specials in RMC, Zarathud, and El Guapo?

I would think we had the Seer, Protector, and Shooter. I think now is when we would want to get some clarity and not risk a night kill against any special that is still alive. Just my opinion of course... Not some little plan for the village.

Hold constant for a moment the notion that our defender is in fact dead. Is that controversial?

Are you suggesting that to prevent the risk of a night-killed special, we should have that special step forward... and guarantee that special's night kill?

Yes


Yes



Acting on their announcement now and them dying tonight is far better than us acting blind today and then dying tonight


Good Grund knows this

Talk of the "Specials" coming out strikes me as weird.

I can see the need for the Seer to come out at this point, although I suspect he's already dead. He would have info.

Our Protector was El Guapo. Dead.

But why would the Shooter come out? If he's alive, he gets one shot before dying tonight. I don't see any sign that we have a consensus target for him. And he doesn't have more info than anyone else, right?

Unagi wrote: Acting on their announcement now and them dying tonight is far better than us acting blind today and then dying tonight

Good Grund knows this

You're not making sense. Acting on an announcement presumes that any living special would have actionable intel. But under these rules, only the Seer ever would (except in a rare circumstance where a mortician can expose emulation).

If we still have a Seer, then by definition that person is the best judge of whether coming forward makes sense. And if we have a shooter and no clear target, revealing would result in a certain night kill.

We're running blind right now but a shooter other than ... shooting someone whom we have no idea if he's good or bad isn't really in our best interest other than possibly reducing the pool of non-wolves by 2 instantly (him and the target).

I guess we can get lucky and the shooter kills someone but seems unlikely, giving that our seer hasn't come out with info he's most likely dead, even with 2 scans of good people at this point we need the info to help us pick a lynch target.

Yeah, I suppose it’s a wash.

I just think if I was the shooter , I’d have placed a shot today based on my own convictions.

And it just struck me how it’s possible they killed our three specials in three shots.


Also, I feel that when I am a wolf; I generally Do Not want specials to Out during the day, cause the main goal is to kill them secretly at night. So my instinct is to thwart that wolffish effort at times.

In addition to the Seer’s informative, or the shooters ‘effect’ on our numbers, Knowing who these players were/are also very much help when you go back and read how everyone interacted with them in the earlier game. Occasionally.


Has anyone gone back and seen if RMC or Zarathud hinted at anything ?

Unagi wrote:In addition to the Seer’s informative, or the shooters ‘effect’ on our numbers, Knowing who these players were/are also very much help when you go back and read how everyone interacted with them in the earlier game. Occasionally.


Has anyone gone back and seen if RMC or Zarathud hinted at anything ?

Other than Zara clearly hinting that BB was evil I can't remember anything special but they probably went with the scanner wolf so it wouldn't be a big shock if they scanned Zara and RMC.

Our shooter is possibly still alive though, RMC may have simply been a random target.
I'll do a reread on my lunch break see if anythng stands out from those 2.

Lassr wrote:

Unagi wrote:I think he's hinting that he may soon give us a deadline.

I'm leaving for vacation next Wednesday. I should have internet access but not going to spend a great deal of time online. No deadline now but the game has slowed down so...

Do it.

No one is playing.

Deadline will be Tuesday evening 8:00 central time.

That will be nearly 3 weeks for this game day.

 Grundbegriff 
 

Day 3
Players ----------- Voted For:
1 Vorret---------- Punisher
2 Holman-------- Moliere
3 Scoop---------- Moliere
4 Archinerd----- Punisher
5 Punisher------- Archinerd
6 Unagi----------- Grundbegriff
7 Remus West---
8 Grundbegriff-- Unagi
9 Moliere-------- Scoop
.
.
.
Targets ----------- Voters
( Grundbegriff-- 1 )--- Unagi ---
( Unagi----------- 1 )--- Grundbegriff ---
( Scoop---------- 1 )--- Moliere ---
( Archinerd----- 1 )--- Punisher ---
( Moliere-------- 2 )--- Scoop --- Holman
( Punisher------- 2 )--- Vorret --- Archinerd

Deaths
Newcastle--- Peace Out
El Guapo----- Salsaed
Zarathud----- slimed
BB2112------ Double pumped
RMC-------- crispy



Majority = 5

Ugh. This is a hard choice because the Wolves have managed to play it all very straight.

Also, we've had distraction after squabble after distraction, none of them producing any actual data.

I'm suspicious of Moliere for pushing on Scoop after the reason had evaporated.

I'm more suspicious of Grund simply because I think bb2112 would have chosen him. I know I would. (When is the last time we had a game where the wolves picked their team?)

 Withdraw Moliere 
 

 Grund 
 

Unagi wrote:I just think if I was the shooter , I’d have placed a shot today based on my own convictions.

And it just struck me how it’s possible they killed our three specials in three shots.


Also, I feel that when I am a wolf; I generally Do Not want specials to Out during the day, cause the main goal is to kill them secretly at night. So my instinct is to thwart that wolffish effort at times.

I still haven't caught up but I'm managing to keep from falling further behind. I actually agree with Unagi here. If we have a shooter they should probably take the shot today. It at least gives us a known trusted and removes someone from the pool of unknowns even if the shot misses. I have not looked at the numbers though to see where a miss on a shot would put us regarding how many missed lynches we could afford.

 withdraw Archinerd 
 

Need to think about who to go to next. I am leaning towards Moliere or Grund, but since Scoop is on my trust list, I want to put vote on him. Just cant decide if our seer scanned him and found good so didn't bother to let us know or if seer didn't scan him at all.

I'm not even entirely sure I agree with myself.

For the shooter, it's not like killing him in the night after the shot is different from them just killing him at night.
Except the shot's been taken... So the value of the Shooter coming out, largely depends on him shooting well...

More the Seer. if the Seer is alive, they most certainly should have come out - and I suspect the Seer is dead.


for 'human' reasons, I suspect the Shooter (assuming that's what was picked) is dead too, just cause Shooters like to shoot, and no one has.

9 players

7 good 2 bad - No shot taken
Lynch miss plus night kill
5 good 2 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
3 good 2 bad
Lynch Miss = Game over
3 misses before end

7 good 2 bad - Shot taken and missed
6 good 2 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
4 good 2 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
2 good 2 bad = Game over
3 misses (including the shot as one) - bonus for the first lynch being made with a shred of extra information on the village's part (that info being the identity of the shooter)

7 good 2 bad - Shot taken and connects
7 good 1 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
5 good 1 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
3 good 1 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
1 good 1 bad = game over
3 misses before end

3 misses any which way. If we have a shooter he should take the shot.

OK, then - yeah - if the math stays the same, it would then likely help.

Unagi wrote:for 'human' reasons, I suspect the Shooter (assuming that's what was picked) is dead too, just cause Shooters like to shoot, and no one has.

Also, this 'shooter' (should he exist) would have been a shooter who picked shooter - not 'assigned it'.... So if we had a shooter, he was a shooter that wanted to shoot. IMO.

Remus West wrote:9 players

7 good 2 bad - No shot taken
Lynch miss plus night kill
5 good 2 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
3 good 2 bad
Lynch Miss = Game over
3 misses before end

7 good 2 bad - Shot taken and missed
6 good 2 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
4 good 2 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
2 good 2 bad = Game over
3 misses (including the shot as one) - bonus for the first lynch being made with a shred of extra information on the village's part (that info being the identity of the shooter)

7 good 2 bad - Shot taken and connects
7 good 1 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
5 good 1 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
3 good 1 bad
Lynch miss plus night kill
1 good 1 bad = game over
3 misses before end

3 misses any which way. If we have a shooter he should take the shot.

Not sure if I agree with how you parsed out the 'number of misses', just in that - sometimes the number make it so we "Still have the same number of misses - NOT counting the shot" - but you counted the 'missed shot' as one miss, so of course the 'misses' are the same.... Right?

But, in any case.....

I'd have shot. That's all I can say. (It's just a game, so... I'd have shot)

And I don't think we have anyone capable of shooting, so - this is likely pointless.

Punisher wrote: Need to think about who to go to next. I am leaning towards Moliere or Grund, but since Scoop is on my trust list, I want to put vote on him. Just cant decide if our seer scanned him and found good so didn't bother to let us know or if seer didn't scan him at all.

If zarathud was in fact our seer, I don't think he scanned Scoop based on one of his posts.
I don't have time to dig it up right now though.

I've been leaning toward Unagi for a long time, but I'm also really uncomfortable with the way Holman stands on the sidelines and complains about everything. It's as if he's trying to be seen as contributing without actually moving toward a goal.

Now that he's angling for me, I am comfortable moving my vote to him.

 Holman 
 

I'll get (back) on the holman train, I've long suspected that guy.

 Withdraw Punsher 
 

 Accuse Holman 
 

Zarathud wrote:I'm not calling for the Seer to come out. Don't try to put words into my mouth.

I said yesterday that scanning Scoop last night would likely be a mistake as it could be blocked. Today I see everyone assuming that the Seer scanned Scoop. I hope the Seer is looking for the 2 other Infected rather than looking at the one we've caught.

I don't think Scoop is being managed at all. He can still vote, and his continued survival creates indecision.

This is why I don't think Seer Zarathud (if he was the seer) scanned Scoop.

Holman wrote:I'm more suspicious of Grund simply because I think bb2112 would have chosen him. I know I would.

Interestingly, the premise of this remark is that I'm worth having around, so your argument here is that I shouldn't be retained because I'm worth retaining.

Recipe for victory!

Archinerd wrote:

Zarathud wrote:I'm not calling for the Seer to come out. Don't try to put words into my mouth.

I said yesterday that scanning Scoop last night would likely be a mistake as it could be blocked. Today I see everyone assuming that the Seer scanned Scoop. I hope the Seer is looking for the 2 other Infected rather than looking at the one we've caught.

I don't think Scoop is being managed at all. He can still vote, and his continued survival creates indecision.

This is why I don't think Seer Zarathud (if he was the seer) scanned Scoop.

This is also something that a non-Seer with strong opinions about what a Seer should do might say. So maybe he was the Seer signalling, but maybe he was a non-Seer not trusting the judgment of the hidden Seer. I'm not sure how we could tell the difference at this point, though the longer we go wiithout a claimant, the more convincing your reading becomes.

If there's a Shooter and he has a strong intuition, then he should take the shot asap.

Day 3
Players ----------- Voted For:
1 Vorret---------- Punisher
2 Holman-------- Grundbegriff
3 Scoop---------- Moliere
4 Archinerd----- Holman
5 Punisher-------
6 Unagi----------- Grundbegriff
7 Remus West---
8 Grundbegriff-- Holman
9 Moliere-------- Scoop
.
.
.
Targets ----------- Voters
( Grundbegriff-- 2 )--- Unagi --- Holman
( )--- ---
( Scoop---------- 1 )--- Moliere ---
( Holman-------- 2 )--- Grundbegriff --- Archinerd
( Moliere-------- 1 )--- Scoop ---
( Punisher------- 1 )--- Vorret ---

Deaths
Newcastle--- Peace Out
El Guapo----- Salsaed
Zarathud----- slimed
BB2112------ Double pumped
RMC-------- crispy



Majority = 5

Unagi wrote:

Unagi wrote:for 'human' reasons, I suspect the Shooter (assuming that's what was picked) is dead too, just cause Shooters like to shoot, and no one has.

Also, this 'shooter' (should he exist) would have been a shooter who picked shooter - not 'assigned it'.... So if we had a shooter, he was a shooter that wanted to shoot. IMO.

i dont get this. I just re-read the roles and don't see anything for the villagers to choose. Only the wolves got a choice..

Punisher wrote:

Unagi wrote:

Unagi wrote:for 'human' reasons, I suspect the Shooter (assuming that's what was picked) is dead too, just cause Shooters like to shoot, and no one has.

Also, this 'shooter' (should he exist) would have been a shooter who picked shooter - not 'assigned it'.... So if we had a shooter, he was a shooter that wanted to shoot. IMO.

i dont get this. I just re-read the roles and don't see anything for the villagers to choose. Only the wolves got a choice..

disregard.. should have read above the roles..

Day 3
Players ----------- Voted For:
1 Vorret---------- Punisher
2 Holman--------
3 Scoop---------- Moliere
4 Archinerd----- Holman
5 Punisher-------
6 Unagi-----------
7 Remus West---
8 Moliere-------- Scoop
.
.
.
Targets ----------- Voters
( )--- ---
( )--- ---
( Scoop---------- 1 )--- Moliere ---
( Holman-------- 1 )--- Archinerd ---
( Moliere-------- 1 )--- Scoop ---
( Punisher------- 1 )--- Vorret ---

Deaths
Newcastle--- Peace Out
El Guapo----- Salsaed
Zarathud----- slimed
BB2112------ Double pumped
RMC-------- crispy
Grundbegriff-- stomped


Majority = 5


Deadline removed.

Most excellent.