Trump Trade War
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- Rip
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Re: Trump Trade War
If some of them want to cozy up to the likes of China and Russia let them. Let me know how that works out for them.
Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?
So we think Japan and Taiwan are going to give us the finger and jump in bed with China? Yea, right.
Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?
So we think Japan and Taiwan are going to give us the finger and jump in bed with China? Yea, right.
“A simple democracy is the devil’s own government.”
— Benjamin Rush
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— Benjamin Rush
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- LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War
Rip wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:03 pm If some of them want to cozy up to the likes of China and Russia let them. Let me know how that works out for them.
Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?
So we think Japan and Taiwan are going to give us the finger and jump in bed with China? Yea, right.
Did you read any of ND's link? I guess you think MIT is biased by Chinese propaganda? Or perhaps fake news?
Also who have we been shitting on most? Mexico, Canada, and China? While turning on Britain?The top export destinations of China are the United States ($385B), Hong Kong ($287B), Japan ($129B), South Korea ($93.7B) and Germany ($65.2B). The top import origins are Hong Kong ($285B), South Korea ($124B), the United States ($115B), Japan ($113B) and Germany ($85.4B).
The top export destinations of the United States are Canada ($266B), Mexico ($229B), China ($115B), Japan ($63.2B) and the United Kingdom ($55.3B). The top import origins are China ($385B), Mexico ($302B), Canada ($296B), Japan ($130B) and Germany ($118B).
WINNING!
We wont have to let you know how well cozying up to Russia works out for them. We'll be living it first hand.
Last edited by LordMortis on Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump Trade War
Well, MIT *is* a bunch of fancy pants educated liberal east coast elites. I'll tell you what, I'm heading down to Texas in a couple of weeks, I'll ask some of my grandfather's friends at Texas A&M if they can corroborate that research.LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:25 pm Did you read any of Izzy's link? I guess you think MIT is biased by Chinese propaganda? Or perhaps fake news?
Unless the Rip guys don't trust the liberal pansies at Texas A&M either? Then we're out of luck.
Black Lives Matter
- LordMortis
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- GreenGoo
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Re: Trump Trade War
Er...you have no say in the matter. They traded with the US because it was beneficial. If it's no longer beneficial, they'll trade with someone else. That's how trade works.
There's no "let them".
edit: Just to point out that no one cozies up to China quite like the US. That's why this trade war is a bad idea for the US. The rest of us have places to go. Where does the US go if China is out of the picture?
Last edited by GreenGoo on Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War
And don't forget Trump's fancy pants liberal elite east coast state department.
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2747.htm
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2747.htm
Or perhaps Fox and Friends hasn't ranted to make him change another sign of the failure of Obama administration yet? You know Obama did push rubber tarriffs with China after all. None of you bitched then? Don't look it up! Clinton ran the State department then! You can't trust any of you when it comes to Clinton.U.S. policy toward Hong Kong is stated in the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 and grounded in the determination to promote Hong Kong's prosperity, autonomy, and way of life. The United States maintains substantial economic and political interests in Hong Kong. The U.S. supports Hong Kong's autonomy under the "One Country, Two Systems" framework by concluding and implementing bilateral agreements; promoting trade and investment; broadening law enforcement cooperation; bolstering educational, academic, and cultural links; supporting high-level visits of U.S. officials; and serving the large community of U.S. citizens and visitors.
- Alefroth
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Re: Trump Trade War
What do you think happens to us when we stop buying Chinese goods?Drazzil wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:37 pmWhy LOL? Rip is right. The moment the US stops buying Chinese goods, thats all she wrote for China. China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.
Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Trump Trade War
We pay higher prices for ours or someone else's products. It's not the end of the world.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- Pyperkub
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Re: Trump Trade War
Actually, inflation becomes a serious beast, as the list of what we consume but don't produce has been growing for decades due to our free trade policies. The US is largely a service economy now. Trump's unilateral actions with regards to NAFTA will also make this much more painful if Mexico (very likely) and Canada (less likely, but also hit with tariffs) don't kowtow to Trump.noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:24 pmWe pay higher prices for ours or someone else's products. It's not the end of the world.
Additionally, there is the threat of china dumping all of their treasury bonds, likely leading to a snowball effect.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Alefroth
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Re: Trump Trade War
Easy to say when you can afford to pay higher prices. It doesn't have to be the end of the world. Do you think it won't be disruptive?noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:24 pmWe pay higher prices for ours or someone else's products. It's not the end of the world.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Trump Trade War
China doesn't hold that many of those either in the grand scale.
It's not optimal and it's dumb, but we're talking a less than a percentage point of GDP growth likely.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War
My reading has been this is not as dangerous as it sounds. It's not good but not the Armageddon it's made out to be. But then I'm no economist and could easily be duped.
On short notice
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States
On November 7, 2016, debt held by the public was $14.3 trillion or about 76% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[5][6][7][8] Intragovernmental holdings stood at $5.4 trillion, giving a combined total gross national debt of $19.8 trillion or about 106% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[7] As of December 2017, $6.3 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were Japan (about $1.06 trillion) and China (about $1.18 trillion).[9]
- Pyperkub
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Re: Trump Trade War
It's whether others get scared off by an ~5% selloff. It could impact institutional investors (with automated sell/buy orders) as well as other nation-states. When coupled with a Trade War and ballooning deficit, it could mark a sea change in world economies as well as the US economy.LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:37 pmMy reading has been this is not as dangerous as it sounds. It's not good but not the Armageddon it's made out to be. But then I'm no economist and could easily be duped.
On short notice
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States
On November 7, 2016, debt held by the public was $14.3 trillion or about 76% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[5][6][7][8] Intragovernmental holdings stood at $5.4 trillion, giving a combined total gross national debt of $19.8 trillion or about 106% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[7] As of December 2017, $6.3 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were Japan (about $1.06 trillion) and China (about $1.18 trillion).[9]
Could. It is really tough to determine if it could snowball. It could be a nothingburger (would be in a bull market, as it was last time they sold bonds), but in a bear market, it could magnify everything else happening a downturning market.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Trump Trade War
Good eye! Most people don’t notice that. Those are primarily re-exports, and/or goods that are ultimately bound elsewhere. Interestingly, if you look at the raw data, China is almost always one of the top three trading partners to itself.Rip wrote: Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?
- Rip
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Re: Trump Trade War
I guess it isn't much different than us and Canada. Let them think they are independent even though they obviously aren't.....Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:31 pmGood eye! Most people don’t notice that. Those are primarily re-exports, and/or goods that are ultimately bound elsewhere. Interestingly, if you look at the raw data, China is almost always one of the top three trading partners to itself.Rip wrote: Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?
- Zarathud
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Re: Trump Trade War
China can sell to their own middle class and leave ours screwed, if they want to become like America. The Chinese think long term. Trump can't think past the next 5 minutes.Drazzil wrote:China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.
Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.
The US will not win a trade war under a Trump Administration. Never.
The moment the world gives up on American economic leadership and a stable US dollar, our national debt and economy become unsustainable. Trump is steering the US towards economic oblivion.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth
"The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
"The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
- Victoria Raverna
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Re: Trump Trade War
LOL.Drazzil wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:37 pmWhy LOL? Rip is right. The moment the US stops buying Chinese goods, thats all she wrote for China. China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.
Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.
- Kraken
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Re: Trump Trade War
This might be a so-obvious-it's-dumb kind of question: tariffs go to the treasury, right? So 25% on $100B raises $25B?
Yeah, it's chump change in our new trillion-dollar deficit era, and the retaliation will cost something in depressed economic activity. But still, $25B more in the piggy bank, amiright?
Yeah, it's chump change in our new trillion-dollar deficit era, and the retaliation will cost something in depressed economic activity. But still, $25B more in the piggy bank, amiright?
- Zarathud
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Re: Trump Trade War
$25B - lost taxes on economic downturn
It's reverse trickle down economics. Burn it down economics?
It's reverse trickle down economics. Burn it down economics?
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth
"The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
"The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
- GreenGoo
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Re: Trump Trade War
Minus the lost tax revenue on every item that someone can no longer (or chooses not to) buy, assuming you're in a state with sales tax.Kraken wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:44 am This might be a so-obvious-it's-dumb kind of question: tariffs go to the treasury, right? So 25% on $100B raises $25B?
Yeah, it's chump change in our new trillion-dollar deficit era, and the retaliation will cost something in depressed economic activity. But still, $25B more in the piggy bank, amiright?
Of course the tax revenue on the items people choose to buy anyway will be higher on a per item basis.
Minus any loss in imports that simply don't make it to the united states because it's too expensive for Chinese exporters.
The reason tariffs are a bad idea is that they reduce trade.
If you had to pay an additional 25% tax on your store items, that would kill your profits, so you pass that 25% on to the consumer. What do you think an increase of 25% would do to your sales (assuming you were still in that business)?
- GreenGoo
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- Rip
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Re: Trump Trade War
Or you might be able to get them locally for 10% above what the CHinese one was. Viola you created a job for a fellow American.
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Re: Trump Trade War
Great except for the fact that we are out of skilled workers so unemployment is at historic lows. And unskilled labor is strained too but fuck it if that job would go to a brown person desperate to improve their life.
- raydude
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Re: Trump Trade War
"might" being the operative word. If the product is something that's no longer made in America then it takes a finite amount of time to start the production of said product. In the meantime China can just partner with its neighbors and say "Hey Vietnam, if I sell you product X, can you turn around and sell it to the US for me?" And that's a win-win for both China and its neighbors, and a lose-lose for us.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Trump Trade War
1) We are at full employment.
2) You just created a job for low value goods which is why we import from China, therefore likely paying less.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- Pyperkub
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Re: Trump Trade War
Jobs report lower than expected, but not due to tariffs:
America added 103,000 jobs in March, slower than previous months and well below expectations.
Economists had predicted 185,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, the lowest since 2000. It has come down steadily from a peak of 10% in 2009.
Wages grew 2.7% in March compared with a year ago, in line with expectations. Wage growth is one of the few yardsticks in the job market not to pick up meaningfully in recent years.
Job gains for January and February were revised down by a total of 50,000 jobs...
... Economists say it's unlikely the trade concerns contributed to the slowdown in job growth. The Labor Department does its monthly surveys around the 12th day in every month. The United States didn't start to signal tariffs on China until late March.
The steel and aluminum tariffs were announced earlier in the month. But the companies that could be hurt by those, such as auto manufacturers, make up a small slice of total jobs
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Rip
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Re: Trump Trade War
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-brac ... 1522920600
U.S. aluminum prices are falling despite a tariff aimed at boosting domestic production of the metal.
That’s good news for manufacturers of products such as beer cans and car hoods, which are paying 3% less for aluminum than they were before the Trump administration announced the tariff on March 1. These manufacturers said at the time that the 10% tariff on foreign aluminum could push up prices and cause a domestic aluminum shortage just as their orders pick up in a strong economy.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Trump Trade War
The real story.
Exempted, for now at least, are three of the largest 10 suppliers of primary unwrought aluminium to the United States last year; top supplier Canada, fourth largest Argentina and eight largest Australia.
India, sixth largest source of imports, is lobbying hard for its own carve-out.
...
Russia was the second largest shipper of aluminium to the United States last year and what happens to that metallic flow is perhaps the key question to determining the lasting market impact of tariffs.
However, the broader take-away here is that after threatening to use a sledge-hammer, the U.S. Administration has narrowed its sights on those it regards as the real targets.
A similar pattern emerges from the tariffs on aluminium products.
Four out of last year’s 10 top suppliers of aluminium plate, sheet and strip are exempt. Canada, Germany, Austria and France all duck the tariff bullet.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War
I'm legitimately surprised by this. I consider Reuters one of my go to sources. I would not have guessed this administration capable of anything nuanced and I've yet to see them working with Germany or Canada. Again, I'd like to be hopeful, but 15 months of history caution me here.
- Rip
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Re: Trump Trade War
Soi what you are saying is that the administration has done a bangup job at molding the tariffs. Like I said they would.
Politically deft as well since most LIVs will simply remember the opponents screaming about the massive damage that would be done and that it turned out to be wrong. Can't expect the LIVs to catch nuance especially when the opponents failed to mention any nuance that would make their predictions less dire.
Henny Penny politics has its downsides.
Politically deft as well since most LIVs will simply remember the opponents screaming about the massive damage that would be done and that it turned out to be wrong. Can't expect the LIVs to catch nuance especially when the opponents failed to mention any nuance that would make their predictions less dire.
Henny Penny politics has its downsides.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Trump Trade War
No, what it means is that they gave the toddler something he could talk about and then tried to figure out how to do the least damage possible. And since he never reads a briefing, he'll never know.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War
LIVs ? Is that a new Fox and Friends term?
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Trump Trade War
As much as I hate cleaning up rip's drive-bys:
Low Information Voter
Low Information Voter
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Rip
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Re: Trump Trade War
Low Information Voters.
- LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War
Taking that into consideration. It's apparently a current Daily Mail term... Don't read them and I don't know enough to say why I don't read them, so, meh.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Trump Trade War
I think my favorite part of this is the tariffs are two weeks old. I know we live in a immediate reaction society, but it will be months, if not years, before the effects can be understood.
I suggest:
I suggest:
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- Rip
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Re: Trump Trade War
Yea, totally a Daily Mail thing.LordMortis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:07 pm Taking that into consideration. It's apparently a current Daily Mail term... Don't read them and I don't know enough to say why I don't read them, so, meh.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... a822715da0
Our research finds that Trump has attracted a disproportionate (and unprecedented) number of “low-information voters” to his campaign. Furthermore, these voters are more likely to respond to emotional appeals — whether about the economy, immigration, Muslims, racial relations, sexism, and even hostility to the first African American U.S. president, Barack Obama. They are the ideal constituency for a candidate like Trump.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Trump Trade War
Well, he does love the poorly educated.
It's almost as if people are the problem.