[WW]Do Overlords Dream of Electronic Sheep - Replicants Win
Moderator: Zaxxon
- Newcastle
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well done team. One replicant down..am assuming 3 more to go. Sorry for the lack of participation so far....Xmas travel and what not. I looked back upon the votes from the first night, and unfortunately FTwalker had not cast a vote. Was hoping could see some sort of pattern from it. Though this last vote, hopefully can guide some of our decisions further and maybe find something from it. In all honesty my radar hasnt gone off for anyone at the moment.
I think it would be safe to assume that most of the replicants did not vote for one of their own, they might have thrown one vote that way to split their votes, and make our job a bit tougher in terms of finding them. Hence am thinking we might find another int eh stack of the votes for FTWALKER, but i bet there were 2 replicants who did not vote one of their own off. The only scenario where i htink this would not apply, is if they knew that FTwalker was going down, and decided to let him be the sacrificial lamb to ingratiate themselves further with us humans. We shall see.
Truicy's actions are peculiar, in terms of willingness to throw himself under the bridge, but his actions did not come until FTwalkers fate was pretty much confirmed.
Anyway, will be around and hope to participate more. Again sorry for hte lack of being around.
I think it would be safe to assume that most of the replicants did not vote for one of their own, they might have thrown one vote that way to split their votes, and make our job a bit tougher in terms of finding them. Hence am thinking we might find another int eh stack of the votes for FTWALKER, but i bet there were 2 replicants who did not vote one of their own off. The only scenario where i htink this would not apply, is if they knew that FTwalker was going down, and decided to let him be the sacrificial lamb to ingratiate themselves further with us humans. We shall see.
Truicy's actions are peculiar, in terms of willingness to throw himself under the bridge, but his actions did not come until FTwalkers fate was pretty much confirmed.
Anyway, will be around and hope to participate more. Again sorry for hte lack of being around.
- SirReal
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FTWalker was my first "because he's the first on the list and not talking" vote. That I switched to Silky.
Well, one down, two to go! What's the math on there being three to go after tonight?
Well, one down, two to go! What's the math on there being three to go after tonight?
"There is a reason people around the world eat bugs. That reason is lack of choice." - Remus West
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- Chaosraven
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The morning comes again... sirens in the night.
No player killed in the night.
IT IS DAY
VOTING IS OPEN
VOTING TO BE CLOSED WITH SUN EVENING 4pm TIME LIMIT
PLAYERS REMAINING 13
MAJORITY IS 7
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.
Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.
Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
- SirReal
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So. I guess this is where Grund restates that he's not a replicant...Chaosraven wrote:No player killed in the night.
"There is a reason people around the world eat bugs. That reason is lack of choice." - Remus West
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- tru1cy
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We have to assume that FTwalker has been replaced. I would like to hear who LM protected as he might have guessed right again.
Btw, I won't automatically assume that Grund has joined the skin jobs. They would have to assume that we would consider that and lynch him. Let's look for a least likely target.
Btw, I won't automatically assume that Grund has joined the skin jobs. They would have to assume that we would consider that and lynch him. Let's look for a least likely target.
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- SirReal
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Ah, but they would also assume that we'd look for someone else because Grund is so obvious, and therefore recruit him!tru1cy wrote:We have to assume that FTwalker has been replaced. I would like to hear who LM protected as he might have guessed right again.
Btw, I won't automatically assume that Grund has joined the skin jobs. They would have to assume that we would consider that and lynch him. Let's look for a least likely target.
"There is a reason people around the world eat bugs. That reason is lack of choice." - Remus West
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- Mr Bubbles
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- Kelric
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I thought LordMortis said, or implied, that he knew I had been VKd. If that's true, then it's clear I'm not a Replicant.SirReal wrote:So. I guess this is where Grund restates that he's not a replicant...
It does seem to be the case that FTWalker has been replaced, unless LordMortis pops in and says he protected someone against an attack.
Speaking of....
Replicants may withhold their attack, but why would they? Every tactical advantage matters in this game. {Edit: Actually, looking over the rules again, I think I'm wrong about that.}Cesare wrote:Can the replicants refrain from attacking someone? Do two nights of non-kills automatically mean that there's some combination of protection/replicating going on?
Possible combinations for the last two nights include:
failed attack + failed attack
failed attack + recruitment
recruitment + failed attack
The recruitment + recruitment case never occurs under these rules, so we can be sure that a Bladerunner is alive and that he has indeed defended someone at least once.
Since LordMortis has made a credible case that he is the Bladerunner and since we now have proof positive that some Bladerunner is active, I think it's safe to believe he's the Bladerunner. That means it's also safe to trust those he has cleared.
The likely scenario for the first deathless night is the one LordMortis disclosed: he believed I was human, guessed (correctly) that I would be targeted, and protected me, thus earning the VK that he used to clear Trikane.Mr Bubbles wrote:What does this exactly mean. This is the second night that no one was killed. What are the likely scenarios for the first night.
The likely scenario for last night is that the Replicants figured they'd do well to recruit their fourth before doing so becomes difficult. I imagine the exposure of FTWalker added urgency to that program.
Whom would they select? Either a tactically strong player or a very low profile player-- ideally someone who's both.
Right, Bubbles and Cesare?
- Grundbegriff
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Since FTWalker was definitely mech, I was wrong about at least one of these three. However, one of these three could've been recruited after the fact.I wrote:I wrote: 1. Caine, Cesare, pr0ner, Zurai
2. FTWalker, Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, setaside, tru1cy
3. SirReal, Kelric
My current top suspects for Replicanthood are:
SirReal
tru1cy
Zurai
If I were a Replicant, I wouldn't recruit somebody who was already on a list of suspects; I'd do what I mentioned in my previous message. Which of the low-profilers do you reckon is the most likely choice?
- Grundbegriff
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- LordMortis
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And that should actually prove without a doubt that first I am the blade runner and second that we still have three replicants running around.Chaosraven wrote:
The morning comes again... sirens in the night.
No player killed in the night.
IT IS DAY
VOTING IS OPEN
VOTING TO BE CLOSED WITH SUN EVENING 4pm TIME LIMIT
PLAYERS REMAINING 13
MAJORITY IS 7
- Grundbegriff
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For ponderin':
Web of Trust:
Carried forward from here for discussion, since I'm still alive:
Perhaps today is the day that one of the Cops, if both are alive, should consider coming forward.
If X steps up today and claims to be a Cop, what follows?
The only downside to having a Cop come forward (with backup, if necessary) is that the Replicants will then know whom not to choose in an effort to recruit their 4th member. But that issue is now settled, so the only remaining value of the Cop alliance it to expand the web of trust before death prevents that knowledge from spreading.
Thoughts?
Web of Trust:
- st_dysan (confirmed innocent through slaughter)
- Silky (confirmed innocent through execution)
- LordMortis (confirmed Bladerunner through back-to-back victimless nights)
- Grundbegriff (confirmed innocent by LordMortis)
- Trikane (confirmed innocent by LordMortis)
- Doctor1
- Doctor2?
- FTWalker (confirmed Replicant through execution)
- Caine
- Cesare
- Kelric
- Mr Bubbles
- Newcastle
- pr0ner
- setaside
- SirReal
- tru1cy
- Zurai
Carried forward from here for discussion, since I'm still alive:
Perhaps today is the day that one of the Cops, if both are alive, should consider coming forward.
If X steps up today and claims to be a Cop, what follows?
- Scenario 1: If X is a liar and the Cop(s) know that X is a liar, a real Cop should reply by coming forward to expose the liar as a Replicant.
- Scenario 2: If X is a real Cop, and nobody else steps forward to contradict him, then X (and his hidden partner, if alive) should be folded into the web of trust. That would bring us closer to winning mathwise.
- Scenario 3: If X is a real Cop, and if some fake Cop, Z, step forward, then folks will have to decide which one is the real Cop and which one is a Replicant. The best way to do this is for the Second Cop, if alive, to step forward. By midgame, the Cops are more valuable as members of the web of trust than as a private coalition. If no second Cop is available-- and I know this sounds harsh, but it's true-- it's better to test the issue by having the crowd kill one of the two claimants, saving the VKs to use on other people. That'll take guts on the part of the solo Cop, but it's good for the team.
The only downside to having a Cop come forward (with backup, if necessary) is that the Replicants will then know whom not to choose in an effort to recruit their 4th member. But that issue is now settled, so the only remaining value of the Cop alliance it to expand the web of trust before death prevents that knowledge from spreading.
Thoughts?
- LordMortis
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I am not even going to say if I protected anyone, but I did not save anyone.Grundbegriff wrote:LordMortis: did your protection cause the lack of death last night, or did the Replicants get their extra man?
IMO, now would be an excellent time, but I can rarely see several moves ahead in chess. The only downside I see with the cop(s) coming forward is that replicants will know if there are one or two doctors left and that will allow them to plan accordingly. I highly suggest that cop(s) discuss this privately if there are more than one of them and if there are more than one of them and that they do decide to come forward to only have one come forward for the moment.Perhaps today is the day that one of the Cops, if both are alive, should consider coming forward.
This might be confusing for some but if we see a cop poke his head out then it will be very clear at the time.
- Grundbegriff
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That's a good point. Right now, the only people who know for sure how many Doctors there are are the Doctor(s) and LordMortis. Since the number of Doctors is info valuable to the Replicants, it would be good to continue to obfuscate it.LordMortis wrote:The only downside I see with the cop(s) coming forward is that replicants will know if there are one or two doctors left and that will allow them to plan accordingly. I highly suggest that... only ... one come forward for the moment.
If there is only one Cop, now is the time to come out and not to say anything (yet) about whether or not there's another Cop.
If there are two Cops, they should talk this through, but now is still the time for one of them to come out and not to say anything (yet) about whether or not there's another Cop.
- tru1cy
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Grundbegriff wrote:Dude, you have more of a deathwish than any Citizen I've ever seen.tru1cy wrote:okay tru1cy if my death saves us then so be it
Even though I believe you're probably a Replicant, I feel like we ought to let you live and kill the other two first, just to torment you!
Not a deathwish, but really my death is unimportant. I'm a norm, but without anyway to prove it. Since I openly opposed you and LM I have made myself a target, so if my death will give the group more information the better
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I apologize but I will be very spotty for the next several days. My vehicle finally gave up the ghost last night so I'm on the phone trying to figure out if I should get my car repaired or get a new one. I won't be around much.
For that purpose, as well as because I haven't caught up on the thread yet, I will be abstaining from a vote again. If this shifts suspicion onto me, it's unwarranted but understandable. If my lynching keeps the specials safe, I'm okay with that.
K. Wish me luck.
For that purpose, as well as because I haven't caught up on the thread yet, I will be abstaining from a vote again. If this shifts suspicion onto me, it's unwarranted but understandable. If my lynching keeps the specials safe, I'm okay with that.
K. Wish me luck.
- SirReal
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Wow, this thread is really filling up with deathwishers. I don't know who to vote for, so I'll go with tru1cy until something better turns up.
"There is a reason people around the world eat bugs. That reason is lack of choice." - Remus West
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- LordMortis
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So we have Setaside and Tru1cy both claiming to be citizens. Honestly, I'm not sure that's helping at this point. What you are doing right now, if you are citizens, is narrowing down the hunt for the doctor(s) without actually providing any help.
Sorry Tru1cy, while I hope that the vote does not go off before we hear from the cops and get some more information, claiming citizenry strangely makes you my target. I want to keep my doctor(s) hidden.
Sorry Tru1cy, while I hope that the vote does not go off before we hear from the cops and get some more information, claiming citizenry strangely makes you my target. I want to keep my doctor(s) hidden.
- Grundbegriff
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The proposition on the table is not Against Whom Should We Vote? The proposition on the table is Should A Cop Come Forward To Expand The Web Of Trust While It's Still Possible To Do So?
It would be nice to see a Cop come forward. It would also be nice to see discussion of the issue. As far as I can tell, if the Cops don't arrange for one Cop to come forward, now that the Replicants have acquired their 4th and immunity to conversion is irrelevant, then the Cops are basically useless to the Human team. Their sole remaining power is in their ability to gain trust, either through lack of other Cop claimants or by vouching for one another.
Am I wrong about that?
It would be nice to see a Cop come forward. It would also be nice to see discussion of the issue. As far as I can tell, if the Cops don't arrange for one Cop to come forward, now that the Replicants have acquired their 4th and immunity to conversion is irrelevant, then the Cops are basically useless to the Human team. Their sole remaining power is in their ability to gain trust, either through lack of other Cop claimants or by vouching for one another.
Am I wrong about that?
- Grundbegriff
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That's correct. Coming Forward as a Mere Citizen is not only unhelpful to the team, it's actively harmful to the team.LordMortis wrote:What you are doing right now, if you are citizens, is narrowing down the hunt for the doctor(s) without actually providing any help.
The only Coming Forward that would help right now would be for one Cop to step up to the plate and ask for trust.
- LordMortis
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I withdraw my vote for Tru1cy but also fear the I might end up getting distracted and then not actually voting before Sunday night. It could be really easy to go out tonight, come in too late, wake up late tommorrow, get involved in housework and then never see what happens here. I'd like to see some discourse happen but at the same time, I'd like to get my vote in (that is subject to change).Grundbegriff wrote:The proposition on the table is not Against Whom Should We Vote? The proposition on the table is Should A Cop Come Forward To Expand The Web Of Trust While It's Still Possible To Do So?
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- Chaosraven
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- Mr Bubbles
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- Chaosraven
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With only three votes still cast and three hours to go, yeah I'm inclined to give an extension... perhaps until 4pm monday.
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.
Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.
Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
- Kelric
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If I go out tonight, I might not even be awake by 4pm on Monday.Chaosraven wrote:
With only three votes still cast and three hours to go, yeah I'm inclined to give an extension... perhaps until 4pm monday.
I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Cop(s) is not/aren't coming forward. As we need to vote for somebody and nobody has come to my attention as being the most likely to be a Replicant other than tru1cy, he'll get my vote.
tru1cy
With that said, I'm not sure that he's a Replicant. His constant death wish is either a very good (and risky) cover or he's got some plan that I don't even want to try and comprehend.
- Grundbegriff
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I think it's likely that most of the game's participants haven't even been around. Why jump to conclusions about what the Cop(s) will do?Kelric wrote:I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Cop(s) is not/aren't coming forward.
I do think an extension on the deadline would be a good idea. I'd recommend 4pm Tuesday, instead of Monday.
- Kelric
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Since night began and FTWalker was revealed as a Replicant, 11 of the 13 remaining players have posted in this thread with the sole exceptions being Caine and pr0ner - both of whom have been very quiet all game. I'm going to throw a guess out there and say that this is the highest percentage of participation we've had in one game phase since the game began, even if some of the people only posted once. It just took nailing a Replicant to bring it about.Grundbegriff wrote:I think it's likely that most of the game's participants haven't even been around. Why jump to conclusions about what the Cop(s) will do?Kelric wrote:I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Cop(s) is not/aren't coming forward.
- Grundbegriff
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If the Cop or Cops have already posted in the thread this turn and are not playing along with the Bladerunner and his web of trust, then they're playing against that web of trust.Kelric wrote:Since night began and FTWalker was revealed as a Replicant, 11 of the 13 remaining players have posted in this thread with the sole exceptions being Caine and pr0ner - both of whom have been very quiet all game.
Why would they do this? Perhaps because they misapprehend the nature of their own roles as defined in the ruleset. Perhaps because they overestimate the value of their private PM party and underestimate the value to all their colleagues of knowing whom not to accuse.
Right now, we need to narrow down the set of Replicant candidates so no votes and no VKs will be wasted. That is the single most urgent need.
- LordMortis
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- SirReal
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I suppose they could both be dead?LordMortis wrote:I am disappointed that we haven't heard from a cop.
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- Grundbegriff
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I guess that's possible, but it seems unlikely.SirReal wrote:I suppose they could both be dead?LordMortis wrote:I am disappointed that we haven't heard from a cop.
We figured odds were that st_dysan was a Special. Maybe he was a Cop. Let's see what may have happened if he was:
Night #1:
Replicants slaughter st_dysan (Cop)
Doctor #1 VKs somebody (Grundbegriff?)
Doctor #2 VKs somebody.
Bladerunner protects somebody
Day #1:
Citizens execute Silky (Human-- possible Cop)
Night #2:
Replicants attack Grundbegriff (Citizen)
Doctor #1 VKs LordMortis (Bladerunner)
Doctor #2 VKs LordMortis (Bladerunner)
Doctor #1 ends up in PM relationship with Doctor #2
Bladerunner protects Grundbegriff (Citizen)
Bladerunner earns VK, uses it on Trikane (Human)
Day #2:
Citizens execute FTWalker (Replicant)
Night #3:
Replicants attack some Citizen; he becomes a Replicant.
Doctor #1 VKs somebody.
Doctor #2 VKs somebody.
Bladerunner protects somebody.
Day #3:
That's today. Why does the thread's title say "Day Four?"
On this scenario, it's possible that both Cops are dead, if the Cops were st_dysan and Silky. There's only one thing wrong with this theory, though: If Silky was a Cop and knew that he was going to die as the final Cop at the hands of the crowd, what possible reason could he have to withhold that information rather than spill all?
On the other hand, if st_dysan was a Doctor and Silky was a Cop, Silky might've kept quiet to protect the cover of the remaining Cop. In that case, this is the time when the remaining Cop can help his team by coming forward!
It seems to me unlikely that both Cops are dead. At least one is alive, and if he thinks he's being a hero by withholding his info till a later turn, he must not have done the math yet.
Maybe he just doesn't want to be pressured into stepping forward by the likes of me, on someone else's timetable, rather than when he feels like it. That's fine, but this is a team game, not a contest of egos.
The time to muster is now, if y'all want to win this game!