Lars Lynching Liasons 4: Game has ended

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:22 am

Perhaps the remaining players would be so kind as to name their current favorite top two suspects?

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:32 am

Whatever, dude. Do what you want.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:33 am

I GUARANTEE, though, that the remaining wolf voted for Grenard last round. 100% guarantee.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:42 am

Chaosraven wrote:
pr0ner wrote:Out of those who are still alive, Kraegor, Kelric, Mr. Bubbles, setaside, Ralph-Wiggum, and Remus West all didn't vote for the wolf in round 1.

Out of that list, the following voted for Zurai: Kraegor, Kelric, Mr. Bubbles, setaside, and Remus West.

Out of that list, the following were not voted for in day 1 by LordMortis: Kraegor, setaside, Remus West.
Yet pr0ner and ChrisG voted to Kill LordMortis. And to kill Zurai.

Didn't vote for LM... hmmm... this was pr0ners mighty stride forth in the WOLVES MUST BE THOSE WHO DIDN'T VOTE FOR LM...

well, let's see... SirReal and ChrisG were both wolves. And both voted for LM.

First List
Kraegor - Dead. Innocent
Kelric - Dead. Mason
Mr. Bubbles - Alive, ID'd innocent by Wolf
setaside - Alive, ID'd Cursed villager by Wolf
Ralph-Wiggum - not ID'd
Remus West - Dead. Medium.

Second List
Kraegor - Dead. Innocent
setaside - Alive, ID'd Cursed villager by Wolf
Remus West - Dead. Medium.

pr0ner, why are you not voting for setaside?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:50 am

pr0ner wrote:I GUARANTEE, though, that the remaining wolf voted for Grenard last round. 100% guarantee.

This is possible.

As I pointed out, the ONLY way for you to be a Wolf is if tru1cy was the Sorcerer.

Based on our Identified Dead (thank you, Cesares Ghost

) I don't believe this to be the case. I believe now (as I believe I posted back then) he was in fact the Seer.

You scanned as NonWolf to tru1cy. The CG scans do not count other than a trail to be deciphered (Such as his inability to vote for SirReal when he supposedly knew as Seer... instead killing Zurai, something I noted)

I think we need voting info for setaside, nameless, mr bubbles, and ralph-wiggum on the Votes.

I fed into your Bakhtosh trick without thinking, shame on me. You even pushed for him BEFORE that vote. That should have told me something except everyone wanted me to leave you alone.

So I'll go dig up the votes made by the other four (and in the interest of fair and equitable treatment I'll make sure yours and mine are there too, pr0nerer) so we can check for any kind of patterns.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 1:11 am

This is when setaside first makes a note that LordMortis could be a Wolf.
So far in the thread, SirReal has said "What are you a Wolf" to LM and Kraegor has suggested LM may be the Sorcerer.
setaside thinks grund was the sorcerer, LM may be Wolf.
Bolded Names were those who had posted by that point (while we were poking the Quiet Ones)

setaside wrote:Grundbegriff - Eaten
Nameless
Remus West
Bakhtosh
SirReal
Chaosraven
LordMortis
pr0ner
tru1cy
Kraegor
Kelric
Mr Bubbles
Austin
setaside
Ralph-Wiggum
Chris Grenard
Cesare
Zurai
Lassr
PR_GMR

Let's remove the trusted/dead players

Nameless
Bakhtosh -dead, not id'd
SirReal Dead Wolf
Chaosraven
LordMortis Dead Wolf
pr0ner
tru1cy Dead (Seer?)
Mr Bubbles
setaside
Ralph-Wiggum
Chris Grenard Dead Wolf
Zurai - dead not id'd

Zurai and Bakhtosh could have been Seer or Sorcerer or Innocent.
So the Quiet ones we were poking were:
Nameless, pr0ner, and Ralph-Wiggum.

If you suspect setaside this is Relevant info

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 1:18 am

I would strongly recommend we NOT suspect setaside based on his fixation with the Sorcerer.

ChrisGrenard · Post by **ChrisGrenard** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 1:22 am

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 1:48 am

I think it's Mr Bubbles.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 2:59 am

Chaosraven wrote:I think it's Mr Bubbles.

then you'd be wrong.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 3:12 am

Mr Bubbles wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:I think it's Mr Bubbles.
then you'd be wrong.

Wouldn't be the first time.

But one of four of you is a wolf.

pr0ner and CGs editgate prove to me that he's not a WOLF.
WOLVES can PM. The entire thing should have taken place behind the scenes.
But his continual misdirection and loyal puppy to CG tell me he's the Sorcerer.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 3:14 am

Chaosraven wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:I think it's Mr Bubbles.
then you'd be wrong.
Wouldn't be the first time.

But one of four of you is a wolf.

pr0ner and CGs editgate prove to me that he's not a WOLF.
WOLVES can PM. The entire thing should have taken place behind the scenes.
But his continual misdirection and loyal puppy to CG tell me he's the Sorcerer.

I'm not saying he's guilty but Ralph has gotten off scot free so far. He was on the suspicion list early.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 3:56 am

First Day: LynchMortis (WOLF)

SirReal - Zurai, Nameless, Lassr, LordMortis
LordMortis - Nameless, Bakhtosh, pr0ner, Kelric, Lassr, Cesare, Mr Bubbles, SirReal
ChrisGrenard - Nameless, LordMortis

setaside - Nameless, Kelric, Nameless, Cesare, SirReal
chaosraven - PR_GMR, ChrisGrenard, SirReal, LordMortis, LordMortis
pr0ner - LordMortis
Ralph-Wiggum - Chaosraven (joke vote), SirReal
Mr Bubbles - Remus West, SirReal
Nameless - LordMortis

-----------------------------------------------

Second Day: Lynch Zurai (NonWolf)

SirReal - Kraegor, Zurai
ChrisGrenard - Chaosraven, Zurai,

pr0ner - Kraegor, Remus West, Zurai
chaosraven - pr0ner, Bakhtosh,
setaside - Zurai, Remus West, Kraegor, tru1cy, Zurai,
Mr Bubbles - Zurai,
Ralph-Wiggum - Zurai, Remus West
Nameless - Remus West

---------------------------------------------------------------

Third Day: Lynch SirReal (WOLF)

SirReal - Kraegor,
ChrisGrenard - Kraegor,

Nameless - Remus West, SirReal
pr0ner - Remus West, Remus West, Kraegor, SirReal
Mr Bubbles - Remus West, Kraegor, Kraegor, SirReal
Chaosraven - Cesare,
Ralph-Wiggum - SirReal
setaside - no vote

----------------------

Fourth Day: Lynch Kraegor (Innocent)

ChrisGrenard - Kraegor

pr0ner - Bakhtosh, Kraegor
Mr Bubbles - Kraegor
Chaosraven - ChrisGrenard
Ralph-Wiggum - Kraegor
setaside - no vote
Nameless - no vote

----------------------------------

Fifth Day: Lynch Bakhtosh (NonWolf)

ChrisGrenard - no vote

pr0ner - Nameless, Bakhtosh, Nameless, Bakhtosh
Mr Bubbles - Bakhtosh,
Chaosraven - Bakhtosh,
Nameless - ChrisGrenard,
setaside - Bakhtosh
Ralph-Wiggum - Bakhtosh

-----------------------------------------

Sixth Day: Lynch ChrisG (WOLF)

Ralph-Wiggum - ChrisGrenard
setaside - ChrisGrenard
Chaosraven - ChrisGrenard, ChrisGrenard
pr0ner - Ralph-Wiggum, Chaosraven
Nameless - ChrisGrenard
Mr Bubbles - ChrisGrenard

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 4:06 am

Mr Bubbles wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:I think it's Mr Bubbles.
then you'd be wrong.
Wouldn't be the first time.

But one of four of you is a wolf.

pr0ner and CGs editgate prove to me that he's not a WOLF.
WOLVES can PM. The entire thing should have taken place behind the scenes.
But his continual misdirection and loyal puppy to CG tell me he's the Sorcerer.
I'm not saying he's guilty but Ralph has gotten off scot free so far. He was on the suspicion list early.

Your extraneous vote on ChrisG last round is HIGHLY suspect.

My notes of things that interest me have lots on you. That being the latest.
Less so on Ralph. But up there as well.

Setaside and Nameless run about equal in them, but well behind either of you.

Honestly? As Sorcerer pr0ner has done a marvelous job and is in great position. There's probably twenty times the evidence against him as there is against the rest of you... but it requires tru1cy to have been the sorcerer and either zurai or bakhtosh to have been the seer.
Bakhtosh was a late lynch... plenty of time for him to dispute Seers tru1cy and ChrisG.
zurai was early. But the WOLVES would have no idea he was the Seer.

Your interconnected conversations with the Wrong People lead me to the PM orchestration behind the scenes.

I got no special abilities to determine who is who and who is what. All I have is what you guys have been kind enough to give me.

If this was early game I'd hang Nameless for being MIA. Same goes for Ralph-W with the intermittent Thread vacations.

I wouldn't hang Setaside though... so if you feel I am wrong perhaps that is the direction you need to look.

Nameless · Post by **Nameless** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 4:59 am

My immediate suspicion was setaside, due primarily to ChrisGrenard's naming of him as the cursed. That would tend to make us less suspicious of setaside than others. On the other hand, he must have known he couldn't pull off the seer act for long, so he might have named setaside as cursed specifically so we'd go along this route.

The big question: are any of the ones Chris named wolves? I'm going to skim through the history here to see how everyone he named reacted to the known wolves. Could take a while.

Again, let's be sure not to bold anyone until we're certain we're lynching the right person.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 10:19 am

Hey guys. Just wanted to chime in and let you know that I'm going to be pretty busy today (work + test + lab report + lab) so I probably won't get a chance to comment much until all that's done (around 5:30 or so). So don't take my silence as trying to lay low - I'm sure I'll have things to say once I get a chance to catch-up and read everything.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:37 am

Now now Ralph, that's Mr Bubbles line. He's swamped, will check in, yadda yadda...

...right before he posts five or six times within an hour.

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:51 am

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:47 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Now now Ralph, that's Mr Bubbles line. He's swamped, will check in, yadda yadda...

...right before he posts five or six times within an hour.

I work with students... my life is unpredictable.. Well actually my cover is blown... I am really a spy who works with the Royal Airforce. It is my job to infiltrate secret networks and I heard Remus and Chaos started a cult so I am here. I see no more need to keep my cover as I have gathered all the information I needed. I will be on contact with you shortly. Please don't leave the country.

setaside · Post by **setaside** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 1:17 pm

I've got to go with my gut on this one. It's a toss up between Mr B and Nameless.

Nameless

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 7:21 pm

Ok, so I'm done with my test and my lab report and my lab this afternoon. Back to the important stuff.

As I posted before, we really have two groups of people: those that Chris declared innocent and those that he didn't "scan".

As a recap, in the innocent camp are: pr0ner, Mr. Bubbles, setaside, and Nameless.

And in the non scanned camp are Chaosraven and me.

Unless everything broke exactly right for the wolves, we know that pr0ner is not a wolf. For the rest of the discussion, I am going continue with the belief that tru1cy was the seer and that, at worst, pr0ner is the sorcerer.

So in considering the remaining wolf we are left with Mr. Bubbles, setaside, Nameless, Chaosraven, and me.

So the question becomes whether Chris, who we now know was wolf, would choose to declare the remaining wolf innocent or whether he would not name them at all. There are benefits and costs to both strategies, I think. So let's lay them out:

Benefits of naming the remaining wolf innocent:

1). As long as Chris was alive, it kept that person out of harm's way.

2). Safety in numbers: Because there are three people named, if we took a guess at the wolf from that group, we would only have a 1/3 chance of hitting him. Any wrong guess might cause us to believe that Chris was truthful about the other two. Of course, this benefit hinges on Chris being able to deflect a lynching for at least a couple of nights.

Other benefits I'm not thinking of?

Costs of naming the remaining wolf innocent:

1). Now that we know Chris was a wolf, we immediately become suspect of those he declared innocent. Their actions will now be scrutinized even closer.

Other costs I'm missing?

Now for the other side.

Benefits of not declaring anything about the remaining wolf:

1). Their name isn't put out there. Once Chris died, we don't become immediately as suspect.

Other benefits???

Costs of not declaring:

1). There are less of us. If one of us was a wolf and the village decided to lynch one of us because Chris avoided mentioning us, they'd have a 50/50 chance to hit the right person. Again, this cost hinges on Chris knowing he would live for awhile.

Other costs???

I'm sure there's stuff I'm missing. And I haven't begun to consider the fact that Chris "declared" setaside to be cursed (partially because I'm still not sure what to think about that).

Of course I have an opinion about which strategy Chris would choose, but it's sort of a post hoc ergo propter hoc thingie. I'll let people comment or add (or debate) what I've listed before I state my own opinion.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 10:57 pm

ChrisGrenard · Post by **ChrisGrenard** » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:45 pm

The crickets are feasting on my flesh, thus becoming a new breed of werecrickets. BEWARE!

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 12:39 am

I think setaside's game has pushed this game to the background.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 12:50 am

pr0ner wrote:I think setaside's game has pushed this game to the background.

No, the problem is all the padders are dead in this thread.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 12:51 am

nameless Because seemed to join the bandwagon when it looked sure that Chris was going down. Not much right now, but all I got.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 12:52 am

Remus West wrote:
pr0ner wrote:I think setaside's game has pushed this game to the background.
No, the problem is all the padders are dead in this thread.

What am I chopped liver?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:15 am

setaside says Nameless
Mr Bubbles says Nameless
pr0ner says Chaosraven

I want to know how setaside can *possibly* have any suspicion of me.

Votes uncast:
Ralph-Wiggum
Nameless
Chaosraven

Understand: for pr0ner to be a Wolf, tru1cy had to be the Sorcerer.
For that to be possible, either Zurai or Bakhtosh had to be the Seer, correct?

Zurai had ample opportunity to tell us he was the Seer. In the vote where our Proclaimed Seer (tru1cy) REFUSED to vote for him. He went to the noose as Innocent, he claimed. I believe him.

Bakhtosh had penty of time to refute tru1cy or ChrisGrenard. He also went to the noose as Innocent. I now believe him.

I submit that tru1cy MUST have been the Seer.

Therefore pr0ner is NOT a Wolf.
I believe he is the Sorcerer and my scenario of Editgate was valid.

If someone sees an alternative I am missing please tell me.

Nameless · Post by **Nameless** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:21 am

Mr Bubbles wrote:nameless Because seemed to join the bandwagon when it looked sure that Chris was going down. Not much right now, but all I got.

Joined the bandwagon? I said from the beginning of that day that we should lynch Chris. I just wanted to hold off on bolding votes until we were certain, to keep the wolves from piling on.

As is, it looks like two bolded votes for me. If the sorceror is still out there, that potentially gives the wolf the chance to rush me to the gallows.

Assuming, of course, that neither you nor setaside are the wolf.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:52 am

My vote is not hard.. it can change, but I really want to hear from more people.

Nameless · Post by **Nameless** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:53 am

Big question: did ChrisGrenard name one of his fellow wolves as innocent?

When he was "revealed" by the seance, he said he had scanned Tru1cy, SirReal, and pr0ner, stating that SirReal was a wolf and the other two were innocents. At that time, the seer had not been revealed, so he would most likely have stuck with actual innocents for the others, as he could be called on it otherwise.

The next day, he claimed to have scanned MrBubbles, and found him to be innocent. At this time, Tru1cy was still alive, so could have contradicted him. However, if the wolves knew they were going to kill Tru1cy that night, they might have risked it, as he couldn't later successfully scan MrBubbles and pass that info on. On the gripping hand, lynching MrBubbles that day would have been a good way to test Chris's claim, so I think it most likely that he wouldn't risk naming a wolf as innocent.

Day after that, Tru1cy was dead, so no more fear of contradiction from the real seer. Chris first said the player he had scanned was cursed, then once people had asked him to give the name anyway, named setaside. At this point, he could have more safely named a wolf. Plus, the "cursed" thing would make the rest of us more likely to leave setaside alone until a "no kill" night came up. Which makes him suspicious in my eyes.

His last day alive, Chris named me as innocent. Obviously, while I know myself to be innocent, I can't prove this to anyone else. I just argue that by this point Chris knew his game wouldn't last much longer, and wanted to cast more doubt on the issue. Personally, I wonder why he didn't name an innocent as a wolf. Had we then lynched that person, he would have bought another day. Of course, it's possible he hoped we might believe him for just a little longer.

Which also leaves us with two people that he didn't scan: Chaosraven and Ralph-Wiggum. Knowing that he would get found out eventually, Chris might have named all actual innocents, trusting that we'd go after them once he was outed, thus running out the game and letting the last wolf win. Of the two, I find Ralph to be slightly more suspicious, but I can't be certain.

So that's what were left with. If Chris wanted to sneak his wolf brother in as a claimed innocent, it's probably setaside. If he wanted to sow suspicion and get us to kill innocents, it's probably Ralph-Wiggum. I'm looking over the old posts to try to make a final determination.

At the moment, however, I'm leaning towards Ralph-Wiggum being our surviving wolf. Anyone else have some good arguments either way?

Nameless · Post by **Nameless** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:10 am

By the way, does anyone recall which of the dead were revealed to be which roles? I'm under the impression that the hunter is dead, but I can't recall when this was revealed or who he was.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:14 am

Nameless wrote:By the way, does anyone recall which of the dead were revealed to be which roles? I'm under the impression that the hunter is dead, but I can't recall when this was revealed or who he was.

Well on the bright side, if you have me on ignore I will slip right under your radar

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:22 am

Grundbegriff - Mason (verified by Kelric/Mason and Cesare/Priest)
Austin - Hunter (verified by Cesare/Priest)
Lassr - Mentalist (verified by Cesare/Priest, ChrisGrenard/Wolf, and seanced by Remus/Medium)
Remus West - Medium (verified by use of power)
Kelric - Mason

Logical Verification (from where I sit):
Cesare - Priest
tru1cy - Seer

So all the Good Guy Specials are dead.

The only TRUE verifications were Remus West (Medium) and Lassr (Mentalist) by Power Use.
By Logical Extension we have Extremely High Probability that the others are what they State above, Especially given the Remaining Collection of what I believe to be 1 Wolf, 1 Sorcerer, and 4 "Villagers"

Nameless · Post by **Nameless** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:12 am

Sorry, I was a little confused. I've been reading through the history of this thing, and had reached the point when Cesare stated he'd scanned Austin, and declared him to be a villager. It wasn't until later he revealed he was actually the hunter, and I hadn't gotten there yet.

I don't suppose he might have been lying to cover up the actual hunter who remains alive? Maybe?

Nameless · Post by **Nameless** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:26 am

Chaosraven wrote: Well on the bright side, if you have me on ignore I will slip right under your radar :wink:

Don't have you on ignore, but reading back through this can provide a new perpective on things. Indeed, I realized that one of your posts was rather interesting in retrospect, that I think I might have skimmed over at the time.

Specifically, when you were trying to set up your little "In-Crowd" as an actual voting bloc, and asked who else out there was a Villager. I believe that MrBubbles, setaside, and Ralph-Wiggum all said they were. I'd been a little suspicious of you for most of the game, as I thought that your calling public attention to ChrisGrenard's error early on to be a warning. However, I'm now almost convinced that you're as innocent as I am.

My reviews of posts thus far have also led me to be somewhat more suspicious of setaside than I was, so for now I'm kind of putting him slightly ahead of Ralph-Wiggum on my list. Pr0ner has acted a little strangely, but can't possibly be a wolf. And though I'm still not entirely convinced, I at least lean towards the belief that Chaosraven and MrBubbles are innocent Villagers.

So, six people left. One wolf. One sorceror (maybe). And the long shot of one hunter (though I rather doubt it). Let's see if we can't get everyone's word on it:

Ralph-Wiggum, setaside, is it the statement of both of you that you were assigned the role of Villager?

setaside · Post by **setaside** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:28 am

Chaosraven wrote:I want to know how setaside can *possibly* have any suspicion of me.

The only reason I'm suspicious of you is because you've fought SO HARD against the wolves the entire game.

It's the perfect disguise.

It's not likely I know but it's in the back of my head ... nagging me.

setaside · Post by **setaside** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:32 am

Nameless wrote:setaside, is it the statement of both of you that you were assigned the role of Villager?

Yep. And I'm more than willing to prove it.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:33 am

As I said before, yes I'm an un-special villager.

Now that people have weighed in a bit more, I'll give my own thoughts on the issue.

So there are really 5 possible suspects for the wolf role (I'm not counting pr0ner). Of those 5, 3 were mentioned by Chris and 2 were not.

While I can't deny that my view is biased, it is my belief that the remaining wolf is one of the 3 Chris declared innocent. My reasons for this view? Well, simply because 1). I know I'm innocent (though I understand that we are all suspect). and 2). I think Chaosraven is innocent. Yes, he rants and raves, but he's provided good information and done lots of digging. I'm not sure he would have been so helpful if he was a wolf.

So that leaves the remaining three. Of those three, I lean towards believing that setaside is innocent just because I think it would be too obvious to declare his fellow wolf cursed. It would be too much of a risk, I think.

So that leaves Mr. Bubbles and Nameless. If I'm correct in my memory, Mr. Bubbles was the first "unknown" that Grenard cleared. I think if he was going to clear a fellow wolf, he wouldn't do it first. He'd wait until after he's developed a modicum of trust. For that reason, I am now leaning towards thinking Nameless is probably the wolf. I will withhold voting, however, so others can debate or agree with any of my points as I'm sure I'm missing or forgetting something.

Nameless · Post by **Nameless** » Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:48 am

setaside wrote: Yep. And I'm more than willing to prove it.

Well, then, feel free to do so. I must admit to some curiosity as to how you'll accomplish this.