Russia influences election

[Holman]

Problem is, this hearing reinforced what was already painfully obvious - the GOP is perfectly content to protect Trump from any real consequences of his Russia connections (and from any consequences generally). Unless some Republicans become suddenly willing to break with this, this will just amount to complaining, and even that will only last until Trump eventually purges the intelligence and law enforcement communities.

GOP senators are probably the only plausible hope on this, and I wouldn't put a lot of money on them.

We're in uncharted waters here, and we really don't know what to expect. If there are arrests (say, Paul Manafort, who then begins naming names), there will be trials, and trials will take a long time. Even if they go no higher than Manafort or Flynn, they would certainly dominate our political life through 2018 and 2020.

[El Guapo]

Problem is, this hearing reinforced what was already painfully obvious - the GOP is perfectly content to protect Trump from any real consequences of his Russia connections (and from any consequences generally). Unless some Republicans become suddenly willing to break with this, this will just amount to complaining, and even that will only last until Trump eventually purges the intelligence and law enforcement communities.

GOP senators are probably the only plausible hope on this, and I wouldn't put a lot of money on them.

We're in uncharted waters here, and we really don't know what to expect. If there are arrests (say, Paul Manafort, who then begins naming names), there will be trials, and trials will take a long time. If they go no higher than Manafort or Flynn, they would certainly dominate our political life through 2018 and 2020.

It does naturally depend in significant part on what exactly did happen. I read an article the other day laying out the sort-of 'best case scenario' explaining Trump's odd Russia ties. Basically it argued that (as is known) Trump developed ties to Russian banks / businesses because he could no longer borrow from reputable western banks due to his bankruptcies. Because of these business ties Trump's circle became populated with Russian oligarchs with ties to Putin (because that's the only type of Russian oligarch left). Because Trump thinks "people who help Trump = good, people who hurt Trump = bad", Trump comes to view Russia and its higher ups positively, and so speaks oddly positively about Russia. Putin helps Trump because he knows that Trump is positively inclined towards Russia and Clinton isn't, and because even if Trump doesn't get elected it helps Russia to make America's electoral systems look bad (but without any actual collusion or quid pro quo).

If that's the case, then there's probably not enough here to have this story ultimately sink Trump.

If not...we'll see I guess.

[geezer]

"Cheerfully" is the operative word. From my Trump-loving associates, it's not a resigned acceptance of his shenanigans. It's gleeful enjoyment of it, as if blatant lying and alternate realities is some hilarious game that has no consequence whatsoever.

You've put your finger on something I've always sort of felt - that liberals (while they admittedly certainly loathe Trump), have generally been angry about policy and the ramifications thereof. Conservatives, on the other hand, seem to delight at least as much about the fact that liberals are upset as they do about enacting conservative policies. The tribalism is really, really disturbing to me.

[Pyperkub]

Problem is, this hearing reinforced what was already painfully obvious - the GOP is perfectly content to protect Trump from any real consequences of his Russia connections (and from any consequences generally). Unless some Republicans become suddenly willing to break with this, this will just amount to complaining, and even that will only last until Trump eventually purges the intelligence and law enforcement communities.

GOP senators are probably the only plausible hope on this, and I wouldn't put a lot of money on them.

In reading the liveblog from lawfare(I didn't watch), this is so blatantly clear Republicans should be ashamed. Kos has it right(despite being Kos):

Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee have asked zero—ZERO!—questions about that investigation. Instead, they’ve focused on leaks, whether journalists publishing leaks have committed a crime ... and if the FBI would investigate the Clinton campaign for ties to Russia. What a coincidence.

Quite clearly, Republicans on this committee are not interested in investigating anything, they’re simply providing cover for Donald Trump. We need a special prosecutor now.

[Pyperkub]

"Cheerfully" is the operative word. From my Trump-loving associates, it's not a resigned acceptance of his shenanigans. It's gleeful enjoyment of it, as if blatant lying and alternate realities is some hilarious game that has no consequence whatsoever.

You've put your finger on something I've always sort of felt - that liberals (while they admittedly certainly loathe Trump), have generally been angry about policy and the ramifications thereof. Conservatives, on the other hand, seem to delight at least as much about the fact that liberals are upset as they do about enacting conservative policies. The tribalism is really, really disturbing to me.

The thing is, they hate liberals more than they do the Russians hacking our democracy. Talk radio and Fox are far more to blame for this by reinforcing and building it than anything else. Somehow a difference of opinion of 2 groups in the same country is more important than siding with another nation (see Netanyahu and Israel too). Liberals have become the enemy and George Soros a bigger boogeyman than Vladimir Putin.

Scary. Very scary.

[Pyperkub]

I'll cross post this in the Trump Presidency thread too, but read this article about the "political advisors" Trump is installing:

Most members of President Trump’s Cabinet do not yet have leadership teams in place or even nominees for top deputies. But they do have an influential coterie of senior aides installed by the White House who are charged — above all — with monitoring the secretaries’ loyalty, according to eight officials in and outside the administration.

This shadow government of political appointees with the title of senior White House adviser is embedded at every Cabinet agency, with offices in or just outside the secretary’s suite...

...At the Pentagon, they’re privately calling the former Marine officer and fighter pilot who’s supposed to keep his eye on Defense Secretary Jim Mattis “the commissar,” according to a high-ranking defense official with knowledge of the situation. It’s a reference to Soviet-era Communist Party officials who were assigned to military units to ensure their commanders remained loyal.

The politburo installs party officers to ensure loyalty. This isn't America, it's the Communist Authoritarian State of the 20th Century...

[Kraken]

Problem is, this hearing reinforced what was already painfully obvious - the GOP is perfectly content to protect Trump from any real consequences of his Russia connections (and from any consequences generally). Unless some Republicans become suddenly willing to break with this, this will just amount to complaining, and even that will only last until Trump eventually purges the intelligence and law enforcement communities.

GOP senators are probably the only plausible hope on this, and I wouldn't put a lot of money on them.

That can change in a heartbeat. Trump's approval rating recently fell to 37%. At some point he becomes a liability. Where that point is differs for each congressman, but they all have one. They are not loyal to Trump; they are loyal only to themselves. Some Republicans will break when they decide it's in their best interest. Once that begins, it will snowball.

But you are right that it's up to the Republicans to bring him down.

(edit) If you won't take my word for it, how about Dan Rather's?

If you are a praying person, today is a day to pray for the future of your country. I have seen a lot in my decades in the press, but I have never seen a day like this. This is a stress test for our democratic institutions and one can only hope that the system of checks and balances we hold so dear, can indeed hold.

The statements by FBI Director James Comey in testimony today about Russian interference in the 2016 election were jaw dropping. It should be also noted that both he and NSA director, Adm. Mike Rogers, categorically denied that there was any evidence to support Mr. Trump's repeated allegations that Trump Tower was wiretapped by President Obama. That we do know. But it must be noted how much we do not know. We cannot afford to back off on investigating, fully, completely, and openly, allegations that are anathema to the spirit of our republic. But we cannot also afford to jump to conclusions. We want answers. We want to know more. That is natural. But patience will be required. It is better that this plays out in a systematic way. It is for all these reasons that I think a careful bipartisan investigation is essential.

Mr. Trump's poll numbers dropped before this news, to below 40 percent. A blip? A trend? We will find out. If they continue to drop, many Republicans in Congress will likely go from support for Mr. Trump to agnosticism to maybe antagonism. That's what happened with Richard Nixon. In the meantime, it will be hard to see how President Trump will get much of his agenda through under this shadow. The power of the presidency is strong, but it is not impenetrable.

Expect regular headlines about the Kremlin in your daily news feeds. For those of you old enough to remember the Cold War, this may seem like deja vu. But the nature of the threat is fundamentally different. In those days, there was a united front against Russian interference, overt or covert. Now there are serious and credible allegations about whether those close to Mr. Trump may have been colluding with the Kremlin. Colluding with the Kremlin, sounds like a spy novel, but it remains a big and unproven allegation. Let the facts point the way. And I hope men and women of all political faiths can rally to support the continual functioning of government in these surreal and dangerous times.

[El Guapo]

Right, but it seems entirely plausible that Trump's approval numbers will go up from here. The economy is getting humming, and people will credit Trump for that, regardless of whether the impact came from Obama. The GOP has Trump's back for the foreseeable future, and certainly won't stop him from purging the CIA / FBI / etc., which will conveniently cut down on negative stories based on leaks about Russia. Meanwhile Congress will absolutely pass voter ID laws, and a renewed conservative SCOTUS majority will happily validate those laws and continue to allow partisan gerrymandering. As it is under current gerrymandering the GOP can keep a house majority even if the democrats win the House vote by +5% or +6% in 2018; that could go up with new voter ID restrictions in place. In the Senate the map is heavily tilted towards the GOP in 2018. So barring a HUGE (YUGE) wave election in 2018 (possible, but still unlikely even if Trump remains unpopular) the GOP will hold Congress in 2018.

Do you want to count on Trump still being unpopular in 2020?

[Kraken]

Do you want to count on Trump still being unpopular in 2020?

So much depends on the economy, and Trump inherited a strong one. That's going to wear off pretty soon, and then we're into uncharted territory -- will Trump get his Keynesian infrastructure plan AND his voodoo-economics tax cuts, or will Ryan get his austerity?

Republican economic policies make the investor class happy, but that's not who voted Trump into office. The key questions are how badly he will screw over his supporters and whether or not they will blame him for doing it. It's not about the economy in the successful blue states, it's about the economy in the backwards red states.

[Remus West]

Do you want to count on Trump still being unpopular in 2020?

So much depends on the economy, and Trump inherited a strong one. That's going to wear off pretty soon, and then we're into uncharted territory -- will Trump get his Keynesian infrastructure plan AND his voodoo-economics tax cuts, or will Ryan get his austerity?

Republican economic policies make the investor class happy, but that's not who voted Trump into office. The key questions are how badly he will screw over his supporters and whether or not they will blame him for doing it. It's not about the economy in the successful blue states, it's about the economy in the backwards red states.

The trouble is that he will continue to tweet how it is someone else's fault even while his dick is all the way up his supporter's blue collars asses and they will thank him for letting them know.

[El Guapo]

Great twitter thread looking back at July 24, 2016. That was the day before the DNC, when Wikileaks had dropped its initial batch of Clinton e-mails. Clinton advisor Robby Mook went on CNN and basically nailed what happened - that Russia had hacked the DNC and leaked the results to help Trump. Only no one in the media took him seriously.

Oops!

[malchior]

Great thread. That is Death watch material at its near worst. That was straightforward game theory and being laughed off as crank talk.

[Remus West]

Great twitter thread looking back at July 24, 2016. That was the day before the DNC, when Wikileaks had dropped its initial batch of Clinton e-mails. Clinton advisor Robby Mook went on CNN and basically nailed what happened - that Russia had hacked the DNC and leaked the results to help Trump. Only no one in the media took him seriously.

Oops!

Can not see twitter.

Could you post the thread as text?

[El Guapo]

Great twitter thread looking back at July 24, 2016. That was the day before the DNC, when Wikileaks had dropped its initial batch of Clinton e-mails. Clinton advisor Robby Mook went on CNN and basically nailed what happened - that Russia had hacked the DNC and leaked the results to help Trump. Only no one in the media took him seriously.

Oops!

Can not see twitter.

Could you post the thread as text?

I mean, not really - it's about 12 or so tweets, so I'd have to go back and copy-paste each one, which...not super inclined to do right now. Plus several of them have links attached which wouldn't come through.

Probably what makes sense is to look at it when you're back at a computer.

[Remus West]

Great twitter thread looking back at July 24, 2016. That was the day before the DNC, when Wikileaks had dropped its initial batch of Clinton e-mails. Clinton advisor Robby Mook went on CNN and basically nailed what happened - that Russia had hacked the DNC and leaked the results to help Trump. Only no one in the media took him seriously.

Oops!

Can not see twitter.

Could you post the thread as text?

I mean, not really - it's about 12 or so tweets, so I'd have to go back and copy-paste each one, which...not super inclined to do right now. Plus several of them have links attached which wouldn't come through.

Probably what makes sense is to look at it when you're back at a computer.

At a computer where the bosses do not block my access to Twitter.

[El Guapo]

Great twitter thread looking back at July 24, 2016. That was the day before the DNC, when Wikileaks had dropped its initial batch of Clinton e-mails. Clinton advisor Robby Mook went on CNN and basically nailed what happened - that Russia had hacked the DNC and leaked the results to help Trump. Only no one in the media took him seriously.

Oops!

Can not see twitter.

Could you post the thread as text?

I mean, not really - it's about 12 or so tweets, so I'd have to go back and copy-paste each one, which...not super inclined to do right now. Plus several of them have links attached which wouldn't come through.

Probably what makes sense is to look at it when you're back at a computer.

At a computer where the bosses do not block my access to Twitter.

Right, yes - one of those.

[Smoove_B]

Money laundering? Say it ain't so Manafort:

A Ukrainian lawmaker released new financial documents Tuesday allegedly showing that a former campaign chairman for President Trump laundered payments from the party of a disgraced ex-leader of Ukraine using offshore accounts in Belize and Kyrgyzstan.

...

Serhiy Leshchenko, a lawmaker and journalist, released a copy of an invoice on letterhead from Manafort’s consulting company, based in Alexandria, Va., dated Oct. 14, 2009, to a Belize-based company for $750,000 for the sale of 501 computers.

On the same day, Manafort’s name is listed next to a $750,000 entry in the “black ledger,” which was considered a party slush fund. The list was found at the party headquarters in the turmoil after Ukraine’s 2014 revolution. The ledger entries about Manafort were released by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, a government law enforcement agency, last August.

Leshchenko alleges that Manafort falsified an invoice to the Belize company to legitimize the $750,000 payment to himself.

I'm sure it's nothing.

[hepcat]

FAKE NEWS! Manafort was not the Trump campaign manager. He simply bought one of the hats at a convention, and the press made the rest of it up!

[Holman]

Only the best people!

AP: Paul Manafort has been Putin's man for a decade.

President Donald Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, secretly worked for a Russian billionaire to advance the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin a decade ago and proposed an ambitious political strategy to undermine anti-Russian opposition across former Soviet republics, The Associated Press has learned. The work appears to contradict assertions by the Trump administration and Manafort himself that he never worked for Russian interests.

Manafort proposed in a confidential strategy plan as early as June 2005 that he would influence politics, business dealings and news coverage inside the United States, Europe and the former Soviet republics to benefit the Putin government, even as U.S.-Russia relations under Republican President George W. Bush grew worse. Manafort pitched the plans to Russian aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska, a close Putin ally with whom Manafort eventually signed a $10 million annual contract beginning in 2006, according to interviews with several people familiar with payments to Manafort and business records obtained by the AP. Manafort and Deripaska maintained a business relationship until at least 2009, according to one person familiar with the work.

There's more. Manafort's role was to support pro-Putin parties and undermine anti-Putin groups in order to extend Moscow's reach across borders.

Fully expect a Trump tweet today insisting that he has never heard of Paul Manafort, Vladimir Putin, or Europe.

[Carpet_pissr]

Come on, Rip. Spin your 'meh', baby!

[El Guapo]

How is it remotely deniable that Manafort worked for Putin's interests? It's public that he worked with the former Ukrainian dictator Yanokovich. Yanukovich was publicly and closely aligned with Putin. So........

[hepcat]

Come on, Rip. Spin your 'meh', baby!

Here, I'll help him out.

[Holman]

How is it remotely deniable that Manafort worked for Putin's interests? It's public that he worked with the former Ukrainian dictator Yanokovich. Yanukovich was publicly and closely aligned with Putin. So........

The story they told during the campaign was that Manafort was simply a political consultant helping a politician better do democracy.

Yup.

[Holman]

I still can't believe the looking-glass world we're living in since Trump's election.

No matter how many times I look at this sentence, it still feels like something out of a very stupid novel: "The White House is under investigation for conspiring with Vladimir Putin to undermine our democracy."

And the whole time this long conspiracy was developing, Republicans were spinning lurid, crackpot fantasies of everyone from Obama and Clinton to George Soros and Huma Abedin being foreign agents.

[El Guapo]

Remember that media outlets last summer were focused on (among other things) ethical questions presented by Clinton meeting with a Nobel Peace Prize winner as Secretary of State.

[Holman]

A few days ago Schiff was saying that there was direct evidence of deception and at least circumstantial evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

He has just now come out and said there is "more than circumstantial evidence" of collusion.

[msteelers]

Is the information still dripping out, or is it a steady stream now?

The FBI has information that indicates associates of President Donald Trump communicated with suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the release of information damaging to Hillary Clinton's campaign, US officials told CNN.

snip

One law enforcement official said the information in hand suggests "people connected to the campaign were in contact and it appeared they were giving the thumbs up to release information when it was ready." But other U.S. officials who spoke to CNN say it's premature to draw that inference from the information gathered so far since it's largely circumstantial.

The FBI cannot yet prove that collusion took place, but the information suggesting collusion is now a large focus of the investigation, the officials said.

[Holman]

I feel like we're coming right up on what is easily the fourth or fifth greatest test of the Republic's resilience (after the Civil War, the Great Depression, and the whole Late-1960s/Watergate cusp).

Everything depends on whether there are enough Republicans willing to put country about party. If they bury this and collude in a cover-up, there will be nothing left of faith in our institutions.

I cling to optimism, but I'm not sure if I should.

[msteelers]

I feel like we're coming right up on what is easily the fourth or fifth greatest test of the Republic's resilience (after the Civil War, the Great Depression, and the whole Late-1960s/Watergate cusp).

Everything depends on whether there are enough Republicans willing to put country about party. If they bury this and collude in a cover-up, there will be nothing left of faith in our institutions.

I cling to optimism, but I'm not sure if I should.

I tried to make a post that wasn't doom and gloom, but I couldn't do it. I'm right there with you.

[hepcat]

Trump is not going to go gently into that good night. He will kick and scream and tear it all down before he accepts any evidence that threatens the narrative he's built in his head. I honestly don't think he was in on it, but rather he was a dupe. Putin knew he was a joke and played him like a fiddle. Trump isn't smart enough to keep stuff like that hidden.

I wonder how far this will go? Could we be seeing the second instance of a sitting president step down before his term is over?

[Rip]

Take a breath guy, you are just grasping at straws still.

You are just so desperate you don't realize it.

By the time next election rolls around you guys are going to be out of steam.

[Kraken]

Trump is not going to go gently into that good night. He will kick and scream and tear it all down before he accepts any evidence that threatens the narrative he's built in his head. I honestly don't think he was in on it, but rather he was a dupe. Putin knew he was a joke and played him like a fiddle. Trump isn't smart enough to keep stuff like that hidden.

I wonder how far this will go? Could we be seeing the second instance of a sitting president step down before his term is over?

Trump's all about money (and adulation, but that's a different kettle of caviar). That's why his tax returns must remain secret. He turned to the Russians when US banks wouldn't lend to him after all his bankruptcies. Putin knew what those loans were buying.

Trump is not capable of admitting (or even recognizing) that he was wrong, and certainly not that he was used. He'll go down kicking and screaming, as you said, and he'll take the Republic with him if he can.

[hepcat]

Take a breath guy, you are just grasping at straws still.

You are just so desperate you don't realize it.

By the time next election rolls around you guys are going to be out of steam.

No link to a news article only tangentially related to the discussion? You must be starting to realize just who you hitched your horse to. I can't wait to see how far back you can bend.

[Holman]

Take a breath guy, you are just grasping at straws still.

You are just so desperate you don't realize it.

By the time next election rolls around you guys are going to be out of steam.

It's 2009, and every day further corroboration comes out that Barack Obama was born in Kenya and trained in the ways of radical jihadism before developing contacts with Al Qaeda, the Soros-funded Secret Black Panthers, and the veteran NVA torturers who broke John McCain's shoulders way back when.

And these revelations aren't coming from Glenn Beck or Ann Coulter or Rush Limbaugh. They're coming from the FBI and the CIA and a slew of NATO intelligence agencies who've been running the traces for years.

That's where we are, Rip. You should probably start hedging your bets.

[hepcat]

BENGHAZI!

[RunningMn9]

Richard Painter (Chief WH Ethics Lawyer for GWB) is throwing around words like "treason". This is totally normal.

[Rip]

Take a breath guy, you are just grasping at straws still.

You are just so desperate you don't realize it.

By the time next election rolls around you guys are going to be out of steam.

No link to a news article only tangentially related to the discussion? You must be starting to realize just who you hitched your horse to. I can't wait to see how far back you can bend.

I have no misgivings that some of the things he wants to do I am not onboard for.

This health care legislation for one.

But he isn't Hillary and that is all it takes.

If you want Trump gone you have to give people an alternative they will support. Hillary wasn't it, try again.

But now it either Trump or Pence, you aren't going to be anything but outraged either way.

[hepcat]

Not outrage, just disappointed in folks who voted for a television reality star with a history of screwing over people like them.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'm a bit outraged that so many people voted for such a piece of shit out of spite and hate fueled by right wing media.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Paingod]

I'm a bit outraged that so many people voted for such a piece of shit out of spite and hate fueled by right wing media.

I still found his heartening that the majority of voters didn't pick him, though. Of all his groups of voters - poor, disenfranchised, ignorant, hateful, Nazis, bigots, and/or staunch Republicans - he's probably still got backing from a majority of them even if he's discovered to be working for Russia. I think these people want the government to take over their lives, remove personal responsibility, and turn "Republican" into a religion they can follow and force on others.