malchior wrote: ↑Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:39 pm
Here is the math as I see it - let's examine the status quo. Right now the President is impeached but the Senate Majority leader has indicated he is going to take cues from the President on how to proceed with the trial. The WH hasn't really put forward a real strategy. They have tried various talking points but they've left McConnell hanging to dry a bit. And McConnell technically can not proceed yet. He only has so much control over the process at the moment.
Based on the Senate's own rules the Senate relies on the appointment of a managers in the House and the 'transmittal' of the articles. Pelosi controls that side of the equation. And it appears she has adopted the Dean/Tribe strategy to hang this over the President's head. We know to some extent it is grating on Trump because the WH is trying to sell technical story about how he isn't impeached because they haven't sent it to the Senate. Larry Tribe went out of his way today to quote out the House rule that says that Trump is impeached. Whatever - it is a bit of a side show. The idea is to get in Trump's head and put pressure on the GOP Senators. How much pressure is still relatively unknown and the holidays are blunting it a bit.
So what are McConnell's options post-holiday?
Option 1: First is a so-called nuclear option - change the Senate rules to hold a trial without House managers. Some people have said this might not be constitutional and Roberts isn't going to have it. I don't think anyone can figure that math out just yet. It is not certain at all and McConnell might not exercise it unless he knows it'll work. Another x-factor is that he needs to get his people on board with it. That is reasonably possible but some Senators such as Collins have very tough elections ahead.
Likelihood?: It is the move you expect from McConnell because he is amoral and expedient. However, it still feels less than likely at the moment.
Option 2: Do nothing. Many people are not paying attention so politically it isn't very painful at the moment. However, it opens him up to the President losing his mind...which he eventually will. He wants the Senate to defend him as a sign of fealty. Whether he thinks he did nothing wrong or just simply doesn't care Trump still wants the Senate to pass a purity test here. A reason this could be the near-term strategy is that the GOP is much more politically competent messaging wise and I think they can spin this for awhile absent Trump fucking it up.
Likelihood?: High in the short-term over the next week or two but risky because of Trump temper tantrums. Upsides to the GOP is that gridlock here makes it the usual partisan food fight which feeds into their impeachment is partisan narrative. It could be a good option for that reason alone.
Option 3: Agree to call witnesses. This would put a lot of pressure on the WH and GOP senators alike. The WH might refuse and look like it is hiding something. The WH might partially produce in a less than good faith way. I think that might actually become the strategy that emerges over the next few weeks.
Likelihood?: In the short-term there is almost no chance. There are no upsides for the GOP at all. Medium to long-term after they get some scam together it may become reasonably high. The upside will once they get the grift ready is that they will look like they are being forthright while predictably they will be shit bags about the whole thing. The pollyannas in the media will give them credit for being reasonable while ignoring the obvious chicanery. In any case, Trump wants a defense so this feels plausible.
So back to why is this a good thing from the Democratic POV? All of these options pose risk for Trump, the GOP, and the Dems but I think forcing the issue was the best course of risk/reward possible given the political climate.
Option 3 is probably the most likely outcome so the Democrats will look like they extracted a political win. They'll look like they are standing up for their voters and rule of law. All good outcomes.
If the GOP goes for Option 1 then the Dems will have ammo against any of the borderline GOP Senators for re-election who go along with it. That's a win. Margins are going to matter this year.
Option 2 is the worst for the Dems but again Trump at any moment can derail it *and probably will*. That said, it probably isn't worse than the default path as it would have been (more on this right below). Call it a tolerable risk.
Now to the "default path" since we have to look at how this could have played out. The non-stall option had the Dems sending the articles to the Senate for a sham trial. The GOP and Trump would have turned into a victory lap and clear discussion about how this whole thing was a waste of time. They'll eventually still exonerate Trump but the Dems have taken the wind out of that story. They've tainted the option which is about as much victory as you can squeeze out of this.