Lars Werewolf Game 3: [Game is ended]

[yossar]

Oh yeah, I'm going to Vegas for the weekend. Put me down as a vote to lynch whoever gets the most votes. In a tie, I'll lynch the person with more vowels in their screenname.

[UsulofDoom]

Oh yeah, I'm going to Vegas for the weekend. Put me down as a vote to lynch whoever gets the most votes. In a tie, I'll lynch the person with more vowels in their screenname.

So your going to lynch Lynch on a gamble?

[Chaosraven]

<------ counting

hmmm aoae... uuooo

*phew* that's a relief

[Remus West]

<------ counting

hmmm aoae... uuooo

*phew* that's a relief

eue even better

[ezmate]

Phew...only 3 vowels here!

Oh, wait...I should be quietly sleeping!

Glad I didn't miss much.

[Remus West]

Oh yeah, I'm going to Vegas for the weekend. Put me down as a vote to lynch whoever gets the most votes. In a tie, I'll lynch the person with more vowels in their screenname.

I think you should go alphabetically from the start of the alphabet.

[yossar]

Oh yeah, I'm going to Vegas for the weekend. Put me down as a vote to lynch whoever gets the most votes. In a tie, I'll lynch the person with more vowels in their screenname.

So your going to lynch Lynch on a gamble?

Is it ever anything but in the opening round or two?

[Grundbegriff]

StratGuide:

Spoiler:

__ Werewolves know their enemy; Villagers do not know their enemy.

__ Worst-case scenario for Villagers is that they always choose to kill a Villager. Victory for Villagers therefore depends, as usual, on establishing an alliance.

__ The Masons know one another to be innocent, so the Masons must be the core of the alliance.

__ For victory, the three Masons must establish and maintain a pool of trusted allies greater than the number of Werewolves (i.e., >=5 if all Werewolves are alive). This means that the Masons must aim to acquire two allies, keep all five members alive, and replace any members who die.

__ The Sorcerer wins if the Werewolf team wins. His sole point of influence is to ensure that Villagers lynch a Villager. Therefore, except in extraordinary circumstances, the Sorcerer should always ask "Is Bubba a Werewolf?" and if the answer is "no", the person is a viable target for the Sorcerer's crowd-swaying influence.

__ The Seer can never distinguish among the types of Villager. The Seer should therefore always ask "Is Bubba a Werewolf?"

__ Since the Sorcerer tilts the madding crowd toward killing one of their own and the Seer tilts the same crowd against that goal, they cancel one another out if skills and inquiries are equivalent.

__ The Werewolf Hunter is weak. Odds are against the scenario in which the Werewolves happen to choose as their victim the person the Hunter is protecting. The only person substantially worth protecting is the Seer. The Hunter can only protect the Seer once. Therefore, the Hunter's protection will most likely have no tactical value. If the proper coincidence does arise, it'll either buy the Village two turns (a saved life and a Werewolf's death) or result in an even break (Hunter dies instead of Villager).

__ The Priest is nearly impotent. He can learn retrospectively whether a lynched person was a werewolf, but that's already going to be public knowledge anyhow. His sole value, therefore, lies in his ability to tell whether a Special Villager is dead. Doing so would have only two purposes: to take stock of the Village team's standing in general, or to expose someone as a liar. The former is valuable only if the Priest is already in league with the Masons. The imposter-busting power is therefore the Priest's chief advantage.

__ One of the Werewolves should therefore consider impersonating the Priest, if curiosity about a Deader's nature is peaking, to ensure that the real Priest also remains untrusted. It's risky, since one of them will eventually be targeted as a Werewolf. The risk might be worth the advantage.

__ The Medium, in collaboration with a majority of the Village, can give voice to the Dead. Everyone will know which Deaders were Werewolves, so the only risk here is that the Deader will be the Sorcerer and will lie. Odds of killing the Sorcerer and choosing him for the seance are slim. Thus, the Medium's value is chiefly in recuperating the lore of those slain early by Werewolves. However, under the present rules, nobody but a Mason will know much for quite some time. The Medium and seance are likely to be low-yield.

__ Best case scenario for the Werewolves is to impede the formation of an alliance, silence those who possess special knowledge, and ensure that Villagers always kill their own (except for the Sorcerer). Optimum strategy is therefore to detect and target those who seem Masonic and alliance-oriented (but to emulate a Mason only if necessary), to disrupt the Priest's efforts (by posing as a Priest or countering his in-thread influence), and to nail the Seer to the wall (by posing as a Seer or countering his in-thread influence).

__ Optimum strategy for an innocent villager is to keep a low profile and remain skeptical until there's good cause to do otherwise. Since there'll be no persuasion/seduction via PM, the entire game will consist of watching who's trying to sway whom and second-guessing the swayers and counter-swayers.

__ Nutshell: The Medium and Priest (two forms of retrospective, post-mortem Seer) were only interesting when the question of whether a Village-slain person was a Werewolf was left unanswered. Since Lars is now revealing at the moment of death whether the Village has slain a Werewolf, the Medium and Priest are largely irrelevant (offering only marginal advantages if the stars happen to align the right way). The Hunter is rendered nearly irrelevant by all his constraints. It's really a game between the Werewolves+Sorcerer and Masons+Seer.

[Lars]

As the sun rises on another new day and slowly burns away the mist, the village slowly comes alive to begin another hard day at work. However, 1 villager is no longer alive.

noxiousdog's torn and eaten body is found inside his house. Several long, black hairs are found near the body, and the smell of blood and dog urine inundates the room. Using the world renown book "101 ways to identify Werewolf urine, and other disgusting substances", the villagers decide to go with tip #35, "Werewolf urine mixed with gin and tonic makes a powerful aphrodisiac", and it is quickly determined that WEREWOLVES have invaded the village.

All of the inhabitants of the town meet together in town square, and it is decided that no one will leave until the village figures out the identity of the werewolf(s), and he/she/it is hung until dead/departed/stiffasaboard.

It is now DAY. The day cycle will continue until a majority of the village votes to lynch a member of the village. The number of votes need for a majority are 11.

Note: As some of you know, Soulbrother#1 and zoltaire are not able to send PMs at this time. Just to let everyone know, they are both in contact with me by e-mail, and I have had the opportunity to forward any messages from them to anyone else involved in the game. I'm not saying that I actually needed to do that, but I've had the opportunity. So, I would not factor their inability to send PMs into any guesses anyone may make about their roles or non-roles in this game.

1. Bakhtosh
2. Soulbrother#1
3. zoltaire
4. yossar
5. Nameless
6. tru1cy
7. Crux
8. LordMortis
9. Mark
10. Grundbegriff
11. Orinoco
12. Mr Bubbles
13. noxiousdog - Eaten
14. msteelers
15. ezmate
16. Genghis
17. Remus West
18. Leigh
19. Kraegor
20. pr0ner
21. Chaosraven
22. UsulofDoom

[yossar]

I'm leaving in an hour so before I go, I'm placing my vote for lynching UsulofDoom due to the suspiciously large number of vowels in his name.

[Mark]

Just wanted to check in and let you know I'm Just An Ordinary Villager. Nope, no special powers here, no siree bob.

[Leigh]

Hmm.

I'll be at work and unable to post a thing until about 9PM each night.
Please, do not mistake my silence for innocence. (I was kinda hoping I'd give any of you who needed it a Leigh-fix on page 3 to last you throught the weekend.)

Spoiler:

I'm an innocent villager with no special powers whatsoever, but then aren't we all gonna say that?
The only clue we are gonna get this early in the game is (and I know you're gonna hate this, Grund) by trying to figure out why the werewolves chose to kill whomever they killed. In this case, killing Noxiousdog was pretty symbolic, especially given his role in the last huge game I played with him. To uncover a werewolf, it might actually be best to examine who has played this game before with ND and who might have a grudge/ fear of his power. I have to run off to work. I have no true guesses as to who to lynch.

All that being said, I'm watching everyone very closely. This will be a very tricky game for the village to win. Good luck, guys! I know there's a way for the innocents to win. I just haven't figured out what that way is, yet.

[Soulbrother#1]

I agree that those with a large amount of vowels in their names is quite suspicious, however that being said I would soon be an option to off, especially if symbols and numbers are seen like "y's" and sometimes vowels. I therefore will take a much deeper approach in my voting. I have sat back and listened to a great number of villagers and realized that there are a few here that do not talk as though they understand our surroundings. Outsiders if you will. Since we all know each other and trust one another with our lives these outsiders MUST be the werewolves. That is why at this moment in time i must vote for msteelers to be lynched. This person favors a team lacking the ability for greatness and always semed a bit shifty if you asked me.

[Nameless]

So, not only do we have werewolves, but they're not even housetrained werewolves. This doesn't bode well for our lives or our property values.

I was worried about the vowel thing until I realized there are quite a few people with 4 vowels in their name, so I'd be safe for a little while. On the other hand, there are only two players with 5 vowels, and one of them got eaten. While being eaten is definitely a bad thing, it's not really what I'd call "suspicious." So I can't put much faith in the vowel theory.

More seriously, I don't want to put anyone up on that scaffold without at least something more than random chance. And at the moment, we don't have too many facts to work with. My first thought was to try to come at it from the other side: if I were a werewolf, who would I want dead right off the bat? I think I would have chosen Grundbegriff, because he's very good at puzzling these things out, and I'd want that threat taken down pronto.

On the other hand, this could be exactly what the wolves want me to think. Discrediting Grund, or getting us to kill him, would probably be better than eating him. And again, he'd be a big help to the village, and the odds are against him being a wolf. And then my mind starts chasing itself in circles until it gets dizzy and falls over. Result: I find Grundbegriff suspicious, so I'm convinced for the moment that he's innocent. I'm certainly not going to risk lynching him.

The other bit of info we have is the posts so far. And while I hate to speak ill behind someone's back, yossar's posts have caused me to tilt towards the suspicious end of... whatever thing properly completes this metaphor. Being away from the game for a few days would be a great cover, and he did seem quick to throw out a target for less-than-stellar reasons. But all I've really got are suspicions, and I want a little more before stringing anyone up.

So, just some random thoughts and suspicions. I don't want to bold any names before I hear something more.

And one other thing: why in God's name does the village library have a copy of "101 Ways to Identify Werewolf Urine?"

[Grundbegriff]

to tilt towards the suspicious end of... whatever thing properly completes this metaphor.

Beautiful

[Nameless]

to tilt towards the suspicious end of... whatever thing properly completes this metaphor.

Beautiful

I try.

I've always said, "An analogy is like a brick."

[tru1cy]

ND being hit is odd. Leaving him alive would have served the WW better as ND would have been a suspect for the innocent villagers.

No vote for me yet

[ezmate]

Just a reminder...I'm in a conference all day & won't have access to this wonderful thread.

Don't hold it against me.

[msteelers]

I agree that those with a large amount of vowels in their names is quite suspicious, however that being said I would soon be an option to off, especially if symbols and numbers are seen like "y's" and sometimes vowels. I therefore will take a much deeper approach in my voting. I have sat back and listened to a great number of villagers and realized that there are a few here that do not talk as though they understand our surroundings. Outsiders if you will. Since we all know each other and trust one another with our lives these outsiders MUST be the werewolves. That is why at this moment in time i must vote for msteelers to be lynched. This person favors a team lacking the ability for greatness and always semed a bit shifty if you asked me.

Oh no...you went there. You voted for me to die AND you called the Steelers out. You are my new number one enemy soulbrother, #1 enemy.

Just to let you guys know I have a project that will be due today and a birthday party I will be going to right after work, so my posting today will be limited.

[LordMortis]

Well, I'm already going into this wrong. I was going to come out swing accusing, ND. I was just waiting for the go ahead. At least his blood isn't on my hands.

Please, do not mistake my silence for innocence.

I know there's a way for the innocents to win.

Keeping good notes will help. Eventually brutal honesty will be the key. Someone will get accused. They will protest their innocense and spill the beans on a bunch of the game. It won't save them, but when they turn out to be innocent it should spread knowledge about other players. What they do, didn't do, etc... Will then shed light on others actions.

Which brings me to Grund's spoiler. (and I don't know why it's a spoiler, he's part of the game) The priest has one very handy role here and that's knowing when the sorcerer dies who will if lynched rather than murdered in their sleep could spread quite a bit of disinformation before they go.

ND being hit is odd. Leaving him alive would have served the WW better as ND would have been a suspect for the innocent villagers.

Strategically, if there's one thing I have learned from this game it is that the biggest problem villagers have in this game is a lack of active posters. Anyone from posting for a round of voting is essentially voting with the wolves. period. Even a bad decision is still a decision with a chance of being good. No decision gives the wolves more sway over the voting. So long after I am lynched or mauled I hope that we at least give an every other lynching to the silent. At worst you've cut free some dead weight all the while forcing the wolves to be active and display their day behavoirs rather than having them hide in the shadows. At best you've killed a silent wolf Chaosraven/Orinico combination type.

And even after I just said all that with my plan to come out swinging at the Dog, I have to go back and rethink things.

I think I am going to go ahead and go for a different opening tactic to this game and just start accusing people until I see them make accusations of their own, counter or otherwise. I could have missed it, but I don't think Gangrel, um I mean Genghis has made an appearance yet. He has my accusation until I see him make one somewhere else. (or back at me)

[Genghis]

Ack, the game really just started and someone wants to lynch me. It was night before and did not see a reason to post. The way I see it for the first person unless someone has some information on the first day (unlikely) is either kill the quiet ones first or target the most active sneaky type people. There have been a few games so far so the people that have been playing in them would know the sneaky people.
No one has really done anything yet to attrack my vote yet though.

[UsulofDoom]

I'm leaving in an hour so before I go, I'm placing my vote for lynching UsulofDoom due to the suspiciously large number of vowels in his name.

I vote for yossar. He started it.

[Genghis]

I'm leaving in an hour so before I go, I'm placing my vote for lynching UsulofDoom due to the suspiciously large number of vowels in his name.

I vote for yossar. He started it.

As good a reason as any. :Yossar

[Remus West]

I think in this game we really must target the silent ones. Not just because I find it impossible to shut up but because the only thing we can build our ideas from is active posting. If we allow the silent ones to stay silent we can not get a feel for the role they play in the game and when it comes down to the wire they will look all the more suspicious for it. If we force them into a position now where they start participating or die when it comes to end game we will have a log of their activities to analyse. I will come back and edit in a vote in a minute after looking over the player list and who has posted.

zoltaire start talking now or remain forever silent.

I will be changing this vote frequently I hope as those I call out respond with a vote or some sort of participation. My vote for now are based entirely on silence, when that silence ends so will my vote.

[LordMortis]

Well that's one outing. I pull back my vote for Genghis and instead vote for Bakhtosh .

[Kraegor]

well i personally applaud the randomness of voting. whenever i try that strat...everyone bandwagons then i get lynched 2 turns later. :p

pr0ner

vote rescinded

[Mr Bubbles]

Why would they kill Nox. I mean of course people would have put suspicion on him, but statistically what were the chances he was guilty again. I highly doubt just because of this that he would have been suspected.. Remember all the wolves were picked at random.. so there is no reason to think there is any pattern to who is and isn't a wolf.

[Kraegor]

whoops! dammit just noticed soulbrother posted. re-readin thread :p

[Remus West]

And one other thing: why in God's name does the village library have a copy of "101 Ways to Identify Werewolf Urine?"

With the history of villages on this board you have to ask? On the other hand this gives us a great out. Everyone line up and fill the cup to the rim.

[LordMortis]

well i personally applaud the randomness of voting. whenever i try that strat...everyone bandwagons then i get lynched 2 turns later. :p

<insert name here>

I figure right now if I get lynched it's not a huge loss, no big deal at all really. The first lynching is, for intents and purposes, random. I'd like to see everyone get something out and moving around before this happens, though. Getting lynched two turns later, however would suck. I'm not a fan of bandwagonism but actually having a vote count every round is important. Silence is villiage death and consent for death to the villiage. I hear tell the wolves travel in packs. So, if for instance, there are four of them and there are 18 of us and five us stay silent it may as well be that we are starting out as 4 to 13 and those odds suck.

[Orinoco]

Hmmrhmpff? Who woke me up? And why does it smell of pee around here? Has Leigh been baking muffins again?!

If Grundbegriff isn't killed by werewolves in the first round, then he is on the dark side. Ancient tradition (tm) tells us so. Wake me up after you lynch him.

[Mr Bubbles]

well i personally applaud the randomness of voting. whenever i try that strat...everyone bandwagons then i get lynched 2 turns later. :p

<insert name here>

I figure right now if I get lynched it's not a huge loss, no big deal at all really. The first lynching is, for intents and purposes, random. I'd like to see everyone get something out and moving around before this happens, though. Getting lynched two turns later, however would suck. I'm not a fan of bandwagonism but actually having a vote count every round is important. Silence is villiage death and consent for death to the villiage. I hear tell the wolves travel in packs. So, if for instance, there are four of them and there are 18 of us and five us stay silent it may as well be that we are starting out as 4 to 13 and those odds suck.

Yeah in our last game Smutly went AWOHL. It hurt a lot. You need active voters who are going to participate and be able to do their part.

[Genghis]

Down to five people that are still silent. Bakhtosh, Zoltaire, Crux,prOner, Chaosraven.

The whacking ND first round puzzles me. He was a likely target for a vision target for both the seer and the sorcerer. By taking him out it just make it that much more a chance that the real WW would be scanned the first night.

[LordMortis]

Down to five people that are still silent. Bakhtosh, Zoltaire, Crux,prOner, Chaosraven.

The whacking ND first round puzzles me. He was a likely target for a vision target for both the seer and the sorcerer. By taking him out it just make it that much more a chance that the real WW would be scanned the first night.

Actually, if he was a likely target for both the seer and the sorcerer that makes him the perfect guy to take down short of the seer or himself and then maybe a mason. Keeping the seer ignorant and frustrated with bogus visions good for the wolves.

I wonder what it is about ND that made me want to accuse him right off the bat, make him get mauled, and make everyone question him getting mauled as figuring he was going to get lynched. That's some impressive work I don't understand at all my dead brother.

[Remus West]

Down to five people that are still silent. Bakhtosh, Zoltaire, Crux,prOner, Chaosraven.

The whacking ND first round puzzles me. He was a likely target for a vision target for both the seer and the sorcerer. By taking him out it just make it that much more a chance that the real WW would be scanned the first night.

Trouble with that logic is that the werewolves and seer make their choices at the same time so if the wolves believed he would be scanned (indeed if he was scanned) then by killing them they make the seer waste a move. Knowing the dead guy is innocent doesn't help us any. I hope the seer is choosing the non-obvious targets to view so that he(or she) is building a block of live knowns.

[Genghis]

Ah. I was thinking the seer/sorcerer could not scan anyone until the end of day 1.

[tru1cy]

WW are targeting known dangerous players, imo. If I was tainted Crux, Remus West, ND, Grundbegriff, msteelers , pr0ner , lord mortis and yossar would be on my list.

Fyi, this is just my opinion. Still undecided in my vote

[LordMortis]

WW are targeting known dangerous players, imo. If I was tainted Crux, Remus West, ND, Grundbegriff, msteelers , pr0ner , lord mortis and yossar would be on my list.

Fyi, this is just my opinion. Still undecided in my vote

Our best "logic" isn't as good as nailing a seer or a mason though. And if I truly believed in more dangerous players and that they were commonly known, I'd let mob do my work for me. I admit that my first two kills in a game this large would be dangerous people kills. The only person I percieve as that dangerous is Grund and that's only because he apparently thinks on a totally different level than me and it's obviously a much better one. And that's the shame for him in this game. Honestly, if I didn't have madness to my method of voting right now then I'd be voting to lynch him as a matter of having no other better madness.

Sorry Grund. Take it as a compliment.

[Remus West]

WW are targeting known dangerous players, imo. If I was tainted Crux, ND, Grundbegriff, msteelers , pr0ner , lord mortis and yossar would be on my list.

Fyi, this is just my opinion. Still undecided in my vote

I agree with this completely.

[tru1cy]

WW are targeting known dangerous players, imo. If I was tainted Crux, ND, Grundbegriff, msteelers , pr0ner , lord mortis and yossar would be on my list.

Fyi, this is just my opinion. Still undecided in my vote

I agree with this completely.

Something seems amiss with that quote ...