The Viral Economy

[stessier]

resulting in what the coroner identified as traumatic asphyxiation

Which is a very fluffy way of saying it crushed his chest cavity. The south continues its enshittification. I'm starting to regret winning the Civil War.

To be fair, that was in Wisconsin.

The most Southern Northern state.

[Isgrimnur]

Craftsman is Closing its USA Hand Tools Factory

Craftsman will be discontinuing operations at their Fort Worth, Texas facility, where they were working to produce new USA-made hand tools.

Stanley Black & Decker announced the new 425,000 square foot factory in mid-2019, where they planned to produce Craftsman mechanics hand tools, including ratchets, wrenches, sockets, and tool sets.

In late-2022, Craftsman said that the factory was open, operating, and producing tools.

In a conversation I had today with a Craftsman executive, I was told that they expect for the factory to be closed by mid-2024.
...
I was told today that the success of the plant required innovative solutions and new-to-world processes to all come together consistently.

They hoped to overcome numerous obstacles, but ultimately could not.

[Pyperkub]

So, they took the money and now they'll take the tax write-off. In the meantime, they appear to own every single major tool brand in the US.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

[Isgrimnur]

https://pressurewashr.com/tool-industry-behemoths/

[Isgrimnur]

“WE’VE CHANGED THE GAME”: TEAMSTERS WIN HISTORIC UPS CONTRACT

Today, the Teamsters reached the most historic tentative agreement for workers in the history of UPS, protecting and rewarding more than 340,000 UPS Teamsters nationwide. The overwhelmingly lucrative contract raises wages for all workers, creates more full-time jobs, and includes dozens of workplace protections and improvements. The UPS Teamsters National Negotiating Committee unanimously endorsed the five-year tentative agreement.
...
“UPS came dangerously close to putting itself on strike, but we kept firm on our demands. In my more than 40 years in Louisville representing members at Worldport — the largest UPS hub in the country — I have never seen a national contract that levels the playing field for workers so dramatically as this one. The agreement puts more money in our members’ pockets and establishes a full range of new protections for them on the job,” said Teamsters General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman.

[malchior]

The risk of recession is fairly low for the balance of the year.

[Isgrimnur]

We’re now finding out the damaging results of the mandated return to the office–and it’s worse than we thought

We’re now finding out the damaging consequences of the mandated return to office. And it’s not a pretty picture. A trio of compelling reports—the Greenhouse Candidate Experience report, the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), and Unispace’s Returning for Good report—collectively paint a stark picture of this brewing storm.

Unispace found that nearly half (42%) of companies with return-to-office mandates witnessed a higher level of employee attrition than they had anticipated. And almost a third (29%) of companies enforcing office returns are struggling with recruitment. In other words, employers knew the mandates would cause some attrition, but they weren’t ready for the serious problems that would result.

Meanwhile, a staggering 76% of employees stand ready to jump ship if their companies decide to pull the plug on flexible work schedules, according to the Greenhouse report. Moreover, employees from historically underrepresented groups are 22% more likely to consider other options if flexibility comes to an end.

[Smoove_B]

As it turns out, as long as there are companies willing to offer flexible working arrangements, the ones that refuse have a lesson to learn. I guess it's good to see the current working model only works when all of them refuse to be flexible. My wife was just offered some absurd WFH position out of Manhattan - like it sounded too good to be true. But I think the company is trying to recruit people they wouldn't otherwise get simply because of their location (and the ridiculous commute it would require).

[ImLawBoy]

Unispace found that nearly half (42%) of companies with return-to-office mandates witnessed a higher level of employee attrition than they had anticipated. And almost a third (29%) of companies enforcing office returns are struggling with recruitment. In other words, employers knew the mandates would cause some attrition, but they weren’t ready for the serious problems that would result.

Honestly, I think some companies (not naming any) used return to office mandate as a way to disguise layoffs.

Meanwhile, a staggering 76% of employees stand ready to jump ship if their companies decide to pull the plug on flexible work schedules, according to the Greenhouse report. Moreover, employees from historically underrepresented groups are 22% more likely to consider other options if flexibility comes to an end.

I'd imagine the actual number would be lower, particularly if the job market tightens up. It's one thing to respond to a survey to say you're going to leave your job if X happens, but it's another thing to actually make that jump when you're looking at potential unemployment.

[The Meal]

Honestly, I think some companies (not naming any) used return to office mandate as a way to disguise layoffs.

No disagreement here. My employer announced via email this week that a) a return to work is happening, and b) exempt employees are to no longer be paid for work >80 hours in a given two-week pay period. Also folks interested in relocating with the greater 50,000 employee conglomerate, be it temporary or longer term, would be encouraged to do so.

In today’s all-hands the response to “software coding being made for remote work” in the case of temporary reassignment (as a cost saving method to avoid relocation and cost of living benefits), but not being appropriate for long term work within our sub-subsidiary was met with an acknowledgement that this may help “the current situation” resolve itself. (Not your best work, new acting-General Manager.)

One of the related issues to resolving “the current situation” in this manner is that you’re not going to be removing the bottom 20% of performers…

[LawBeefaroni]

As it turns out, as long as there are companies willing to offer flexible working arrangements, the ones that refuse have a lesson to learn. I guess it's good to see the current working model only works when all of them refuse to be flexible.

It's more that the masses have been exposed to flexible arrangements.

20 years ago I had friends hoteling downtown in offices with pool tables and open bars. They worked half the day on their phone from Wrigley or from home. I can't think of any that went back to a normal office job after that. And no, they weren't sales guys or traders. IT, accounting, and analysts.

And before that there were "banker's hours". The 4 hour work day.

The thing is now, the secret is out and no one wants to go back.

[malchior]

As someone in the NY metro area, I can't think of a single reason I should be spending 3-4 hours traveling into NYC daily to provide cybersecurity advice to executives. I mention this because a major financial institution spoke to me a few weeks about an opportunity. It was relayed to me as hybrid. I wasn't too interested for that reason but when an institution this size knocks I can afford to spend an hour talking over a role. Who knows, right?

The recruiter mentioned they have been searching for some time for this role (Senior Director role in Security Architecture in this case). I spoke with the CISO of the bank - someone I worked for in the past - and I probed lightly to find out why the role was unfilled, what he needed, and such without touching on the workplace arrangements. He straight up told me that the problem was the workplace reporting requirements. The pool of people who want to take an in-person 9-5 5-day a week role in lower Manhattan is...not deep. I expressed lack of surprise except for the revelation the role was 5-days a week in office since that wasn't was communicated by the recruiter. He explained that workplace polices had changed during the search and that was old information. I wished him good luck and invited him to give me a ring if he wants to engage me as a consultant.

[malchior]

Lost in the Trump indictment talk was Fitch strangely...bizarrely even downgrading US credit rating after trading today. It comes out of nowhere and doesn't appear to be linked to anything substantive that has changed.

[Carpet_pissr]

Is it not directly related to the idiotic and repeated debt ceiling dick swinging?

[malchior]

Is it not directly related to the idiotic and repeated debt ceiling dick swinging?

That's one possible explanation they offer but it is contradicted by their own announcement. They essentially downgraded and then said the future outlook as a AA+ is stable. If it were about the dick swinging - which isn't over by a long shot - then you would think it would be reflected as a future factor that is weighing on potential future downgrades. They didn't do that which is why it is a bit bizarre. Additionally it was timed weirdly and the outlook is actually looking a whole lot better than when the shenanigans happened.

[Pyperkub]

Is it not directly related to the idiotic and repeated debt ceiling dick swinging?

Technically, it's government shut down season now

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

[LordMortis]

Is it not directly related to the idiotic and repeated debt ceiling dick swinging?

CNBC says that's their claim and that Yellen says the downgrade is due to TFG policy. None of that makes sense to me. Why now? Why 7 months or three years after the fact?

[malchior]

Is it not directly related to the idiotic and repeated debt ceiling dick swinging?

CNBC says that's their claim and that Yellen says the downgrade is due to TFG policy. None of that makes sense to me. Why now? Why 7 months or three years after the fact?

Part of Fitch's guidance is about a decline in governance. The Biden administration is apparently furious at Fitch (as they should be) and has worked out a response that partly points out that the governance issues stems from Trump-era shenanigans. Fitch is however talking about the decline in governance over the last 20 years. Which is a fair point and has the virtue of being true. It however doesn't seem more likely than not to lead to actual default in the end which is where they run into issues with their assessment.

The trouble is the timing doesn't necessarily make much sense which is why several economists and banking people are openly questioning Fitch. It's not like these issues are new. They could have made these observations ten years ago. Why now? That is the part that doesn't make much sense. In the end, if the market yawns then Fitch has sort of undermined their own utility.

[LordMortis]

Why now is my question.

[LawBeefaroni]

Fitch is just looking for attention. And they got it.

[Carpet_pissr]

Whatever their timing, does anyone care to argue that they are wrong?

Let’s shoot the messenger and blame the agencies assessing risk of an idiocracy vs the real problem.

We seem to get closer and closer to actually defaulting every time the fucking debt ceiling circus comes up.

How long SHOULD the govt get a pass for its overt financial recklessness? Until we actually default?

[LordMortis]

Whatever their timing, does anyone care to argue that they are wrong?

Would they have been wrong if they made the announcement in 2021? 19? 17? 15? 14? 13? 11? Which takes me back to why now? There was "crisis" in each of these years. Did they suddenly wake after being incompetent for 13 years?

So no, they aren't wrong. But what made things different now. What makes their judgement and judgement change important today?

[malchior]

Whatever their timing, does anyone care to argue that they are wrong?

Let’s shoot the messenger and blame the agencies assessing risk of an idiocracy vs the real problem.

Their credibility/judgement is literally their job. Lots of folks aren't criticizing them for the message - it is the utterly confusing way they are doing it. S&P pretty much messaged this exact same thing...12 years ago. Fitch is saying they needed *20* years of evidence before deciding it was a problem. For financial folks...Fitch looks pretty silly right now.

We seem to get closer and closer to actually defaulting every time the fucking debt ceiling circus comes up.

How long SHOULD the govt get a pass for its overt financial recklessness? Until we actually default?

But we aren't actually any closer. What we learned from this last one? There is no appetite for an actual default. That changes only if the mix in Congress drastically changes. So we will continue to have dumb budget fights...but we've had dumb budget fights for years. Our outlook isn't materially all that actually different. We still have the same problems we've known about for years. The whole thing is...again the word is bizarre. Fitch has added no new information about financial outlook but as Krugman points out - they've told us a whole lot about their process. It isn't looking too healthy right now.

Edit: And to LM's point, the 'Why Now?' question is so important because frankly it adds in the optics that Fitch might be playing more with the *politics* than the financial modeling. I don't have a strong read on that possibility but it's out there now. They've invited a political food fight which isn't all that helpful. They've timed the announcement in a way that seems to maximally impact Biden when the underlying causes are 95% Republican generated. That is why the whole thing smells funky to those of us who pay attention to these things.

[LawBeefaroni]

We seem to get closer and closer to actually defaulting every time the fucking debt ceiling circus comes up.

That may also show that despite extreme political disfunction, we still don't default. It's theater and at the end of the day, everyone knows we won't default. Debt and deficit are apparently meaningless when you're too big to fail.

[malchior]

We seem to get closer and closer to actually defaulting every time the fucking debt ceiling circus comes up.

That may also show that despite extreme political disfunction, we still don't default. It's theater and at the end of the day, everyone knows we won't default. Debt and deficit are apparently meaningless when you're too big to fail.

That's another factor that makes this weird - debt to GDP has improved greatly over the last two years. If they say, did this when the Trump tax cuts were passed into law or warn on outlook about debt and then execute in 2025 when another debt ceiling standoff occurred no one would have been surprised as they are now.

Not saying problems have been solved but we're still the world's biggest economy and still the world's reserve currency. Fitch's model doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense. Hence why the immediate reaction from the market seems to be "so what?"

[Carpet_pissr]

We seem to get closer and closer to actually defaulting every time the fucking debt ceiling circus comes up.

That may also show that despite extreme political disfunction, we still don't default. It's theater and at the end of the day, everyone knows we won't default. Debt and deficit are apparently meaningless when you're too big to fail.

In our current “burn it all down” political environment by certain elements, I disagree that it’s just theater. Pretty sure I wasn’t the only one on here arguing that it might be the goal of some far righties to cause a default for a couple of different reasons.

The more extreme elements that we vote in that get a say in this, the higher the chance that we (as a country) act irrationally IMO.

[Carpet_pissr]

S&P down 1.4% today FWIW.

May or may not be related to the downgrade, but I tend to think it is.

[malchior]

S&P down 1.4% today FWIW.

May or may not be related to the downgrade, but I tend to think it is.

Maybe. The world largely shrugged it off through their after hours trading session. You'd expect the algos would have made their moves long before that if it was impacted. There was a big treasury yield jump (as much as a move to 4.13% from 4.06% is a "big jump" but it quickly pulled back to near level right afterwards). That might indicate there was some testing in ForEx/treasuries but we'll have to keep an eye on it.

There is a strong chance it is related to economic news that came in today. The ADP number was *HOT* with 320K jobs added versus a forecast of ~160K-170K and 6.2% YoY wage growth. The big index drop coincided with that data drop. There is also more significant data points coming in tomorrow and Friday. The latest unemployment, wage data, and manufacturing data is forthcoming. If they are as hot as the ADP number was it builds a case for more rate hikes which the market is more likely to care about.

[LordMortis]

S&P down 1.4% today FWIW.

May or may not be related to the downgrade, but I tend to think it is.

Maybe. The world largely shrugged it off through their after hours trading session. You'd expect the algos would have made their moves long before that if it was impacted. There was a big treasury yield jump (as much as a move to 4.13% from 4.06% is a "big jump" but it quickly pulled back to near level right afterwards). That might indicate there was some testing in ForEx/treasuries but we'll have to keep an eye on it.

There is a strong chance it is related to economic news that came in today. The ADP number was *HOT* with 320K jobs added versus a forecast of ~160K-170K and 6.2% YoY wage growth. The big index drop coincided with that data drop. There is also more significant data points coming in tomorrow and Friday. The latest unemployment, wage data, and manufacturing data is forthcoming. If they are as hot as the ADP number was it builds a case for more rate hikes which the market is more likely to care about.

The drop happened before ADP but then is happened well after the Fitch report. So? overnight...

[malchior]

The drop happened before ADP but then is happened well after the Fitch report. So? overnight...

No it didn't. It opened a little down but it wasn't really much off the overnight. The ADP number came out at 8:15 AM. The bulk of the drop in S&P and NASDAQ was around 10-11 AM. FWIW this is the peril of assigning meaning to *any* particular event in the stock market. Lots of things are happening at all times. I tend to gravitate towards data that builds consensus on big mover factors (such as a rate hike) which is broad based. Fitch would more likely be seen in the interest rate market (and we indeed saw a short term move there). That said the Fitch announcement is probably in the broad mix somewhere because maybe some retail investors cared or some institutions tested bond yields to see if there were arbitrage oppos which had impacts.

[malchior]

WaPo Editorial board

Pretty good take on the whole shebang. The call for reform is the most important aspect and it remains to be seen if our cluster-f of a government will make any progress on meaningful reform. I suspect they'll can kick until they are eventually forced to raise taxes or just let the calendar take care of it by letting the Trump tax cuts sunset.

It is as though someone at Fitch Ratings accidentally hit “publish” Tuesday on its announcement that it was downgrading U.S. government debt from AAA to AA+. The timing was bizarre. The report came out just as the nation was distracted by former president Donald Trump’s indictment. Economic news has been so positive this summer that the Federal Reserve and many on Wall Street no longer predict a recession. Yes, the United States has a long-term debt problem, but the situation has improved slightly in recent months after President Biden and House Republicans struck a deal to avert a debt ceiling crisis, and the U.S. economy has performed better than expected. All of this makes U.S. debt more attractive, not less.

Americans should not panic. Yet they also should not dismiss concerns about the national debt’s long-term trajectory. Here are the three key takeaways from the Fitch news.

Fitch’s rationale is flawed. The rating agency based its downgrade on several considerations: an “erosion of governance,” “fiscal deterioration” due in the next three years and a growing government debt burden. Only the third reason makes much sense, but it’s not as though the debt outlook suddenly worsened. It has been known for decades that costs would jump for Social Security, Medicare and other programs as baby boomers retired. Fitch predicts a tough few years ahead largely because of its forecast of an imminent recession, but that prediction appears outdated. And while few would disagree that politics has become more partisan and contentious, lawmakers didn’t default on U.S. debt obligations. They negotiated a compromise that will actually save a modest amount of money in the coming years. Mr. Biden also quietly launched a White House working group last month to look at ways to avoid future debt ceiling brinkmanship. (We favor scrapping the debt ceiling altogether.) Overall, U.S. debt remains one of the safest assets on the planet.

The impact will be minimal. Wall Street is largely shrugging off the downgrade because it didn’t say anything new and U.S. government debt is still an attractive investment. As Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen put it, “Fitch’s decision does not change what all of us already know: that Treasury securities remain the world’s preeminent safe and liquid asset.” On a practical level, many of the world’s biggest investors, such as pension funds and banks, are required to buy large amounts of safe assets. U.S. debt still qualifies, even with the slight knock down in its rating.

Still, this should inspire reform. The absence of a substantial short-term response to Fitch’s debt downgrade should not encourage continued complacency on the nation’s long-term trajectory. Two of the country’s three biggest bond rating agencies — Fitch and S&P Global Ratings — now give U.S. debt a slightly diminished rating. The best way for Mr. Biden and Republicans and Democrats in Congress to prove Fitch and S&P wrong is for lawmakers to begin to tackle the country’s long-term fiscal challenges, starting with Social Security.

Costs are rising much faster than revenue, especially with an aging population. U.S. debt as a share of the economy is on track to surpass even World War II levels as soon as 2029, the Congressional Budget Office warns. No one knows when or whether the debt will reach a crisis point, but the risks grow as the debt level swells.

[malchior]

Google "entices" workers to return to office by recreating work at home via...selling them discounted on-campus hotel suites. Sure, why not.

Google is hoping to lure workers back to the office with a new on-site hotel special, but some workers aren’t convinced it’s a good deal.

Some of them? Who thinks it is a good deal? Sundar Pichai!?

The company said full-time employees can book a room at an on-campus hotel in Mountain View for $99 a night in what it’s deeming a “Summer Special,” according to materials viewed by CNBC. The description states that the special will run through Sept. 30 in hopes it’ll “make it easier for Googlers to transition to the hybrid workplace.”

Since the promotion is for unapproved business travel, the company will not reimburse their stays, but will require employees to use their personal credit cards, the special’s description states.

“Just imagine no commute to the office in the morning and instead, you could have an extra hour of sleep and less friction,” the description reads. “Next, you could walk out of your room and quickly grab a delicious breakfast or get a workout in before work starts.”

The ad goes on to say that after the work day ends, “you could enjoy a quiet evening on top of the rooftop deck or take in one of the fun local activities.”

The Google-owned hotel is situated on a newer campus in Mountain View, California, that it opened last year. The 42-acre campus is adjacent to NASA’s Ames Research Center and has capacity to house 4,000 employees working on its ads products, the company said upon its opening.

Come on - you have to know these guys want to build a full-out cyberpunk style corporate arcology.

[gilraen]

So they are already paying through the nose for rent or mortgages in the San Francisco area but sure, let's just make them pay for the hotel room on top of that. This is like Twitter-level tone deafness.

[malchior]

Someone who used to rent a room in my house (friend of my wife) works there and I just shot her a question about it. Last time I saw her, it was last summer and she was talking about how they really led the way on wfh. Then they reversed...hard after they dumped so much money into their campus. I am curious what the real scuttlebutt is because I'm hearing about a decent amount of discontent in the private social media bubbles I frequent (especially Fishbowl).

[Carpet_pissr]

Important to note what the average Google salary is for workers that this is targeting. I’m guessing it’s easily $160K+

[Smoove_B]

“Just imagine no commute to the office in the morning and instead, you could have an extra hour of sleep and less friction,” the description reads. “Next, you could walk out of your room and quickly grab a delicious breakfast or get a workout in before work starts.”

This has coal miner "company store" energy. Also, I don't have to imagine it. I do it every day...at home.

[malchior]

Important to note what the average Google salary is for workers that this is targeting. I’m guessing it’s easily $160K+

It's San Fran so it's probably north of that but I don't think it matters much how much they make. The whole idea is absurd.

[ImLawBoy]

I'm probably among the most "pro office" people on the forum, and even I think this is absurd.

[edit]And the irony is not lost on me that I lobbied to be designated VO at my work![/edit]

[Carpet_pissr]

Important to note what the average Google salary is for workers that this is targeting. I’m guessing it’s easily $160K+

The whole idea is absurd.

Agree, in case it's not clear.

I PERSONALLY favor a mostly "in office" work environment, but I'm also completely for WFH if you thrive in that set up.
1. No, I am not in management
2. Yes, I have attention/focus issues
3. I FULLY support anyone who wants to WFH, so my personal quirk should not affect others desire to WFH.

Actually, a hybrid situation would be ideal for me (which I can do now, but choose to just WFH one day a week), or better still, one of those individual work spaces in a downtown office building, with other little offices all around, coffee machines and snacks in an atrium, other nomads like you milling around... I was in that "workspace" situation for several months before we built our new office (30m drive for me, one way), and it was paradise, work-wise (for me).

[Isgrimnur]

U.S. inflation rate creeps back up, CPI shows, but probably not enough to worry the Fed

The yearly rate of inflation rose to 3.2% from to 3% in the prior month, the consumer price index showed. It was the first increase in13 months.

Still, a steady slowdown in inflation over the past year could keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines when senior officials consider whether to raise interest rates again at their next meeting in September.

Inflation has eased considerably since hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in the middle of 2022.

The so-called core rate of inflation, meanwhile, also rose 0.2% last month. The core rate omits volatile food and energy costs.