The insurrection committee's public hearings

[malchior]

Apparently the SS agents agree Trump was furious about not going to the Capitol. That'd leave he only things in dispute the "assault" and lunging at the wheel. Which she wasn't even first party to. The committee interviewed all these folks already so it seems odd if they didn't think she was telling the truth. It also wouldn't change about 95% of the impact from today's testimony.

I hear you, but I'm not sure why *this* is what you think will set you over the edge. The country is sunk, and it's been apparent through hundreds of examples for 5+ years (if we're being extremely charitable) now. The *best case* scenario is that this investigation ends with a small fraction the impact it should have had months ago, with 30% of the population still insisting until they croak that Trump is their lord and savior.

IMO barring something proving she made it all up, the discussions about threat assessments, the efforts to reduce security to arm the crowd, etc. If this doesn't net Trump then I think we've essentially hit rock bottom. We are a shit hole counrry even if Trump is prosecuted but we would be on some track to restoration of law and order. Absent that we are a shit hole where the elite run rampant. Fuck that. If you can get out of here before if/when it gets bad, it just makes sense. As a cherry on top, couple all that with the reality of a United States ruled in judicial tyranny...it might be smart to pack up no matter what.

[LawBeefaroni]

If this doesn't net Trump then I think we've essentially hit rock bottom.

This is not rock bottom. It is not even the top of the bottom. But it may be the bottom of the top. We've got a long way, baby!

[malchior]

FWIW the committee hasn't misstepped yet. We also have to keep in mind that Ornato left the SS to work in a political position in the Trump WH. He is MAGA. Oh and the USSS is a trash fire at the best times. This very well might be a disinformation campaign to protect Trump. Or it could be her being a fibber. Guess we will find out soon enough.

[malchior]

Death watch stuff. NBC News potentially broadcast GOP sourced disinfo.

[Smoove_B]

Interesting, isn't it? As has been pointed out, they're all welcome to testify under oath.

Do you know what else is interesting? Not a single peep from Mark Meadows. I'm sure he's just thinking of the right thing to say to counter her statements from today.

[malchior]

Meanwhile, I have to say this was totally unexpected.

[hepcat]

She’s part of the ruling class. She ain’t gotta do shit.

Well…until her husband sees his long con come to fruition and Loving v Virginia is overturned, at which point it’s “Ah man, I’m sorry Ginny! But it’s against the law to stay with you. Hellooooo trophy wife!”

[malchior]

He can make some real coin there with a reality TV bake off between Candice Owens and Stacey Dash.

[stessier]

FWIW, Popehat still thinks it's more likely than not that he is not indicted, but he had moved from unlikely to plausible. (If you are a paid subscriber, he's dropped 2 podcasts this week looking at Eastman and yesterday's events!)

[malchior]

Right but it's important to note that he joins a fairly substantial chorus of former federal prosecutors who thinks that they *should* indict. He also made that comments on the plausibility based on the Clark raid. When they did the special update about yesterday's hearing my takeaway was that he now thinks the bar to charging illegal incitement was lowered considerably. Though frankly I agree with their take that it is not the charge they should go after necessarily. The fraud/electoral stuff is probably more compelling. In any case, great content.

As an aside, they talk alot about that Avenatti living rent free in Ken's head stuff. Ken lives in my head in the sense that his explanations over time have convinced me that this is a pretty shitty nation. Well to be fair he is one amongst many. It is in the sense that most people don't get down and look at the system's plumbing. Once you get a tour of it from experts like him you see all of the infuriating aspects. The episode on Uvalde is a great example of this.

In my case I couldn't help but start forming opinions about all the decisions and compromises that have led to this patchwork of dysfunction. And it isn't hard to draw lines to impacts that have created grinding misery and anger for a lot of folks. Who are then manipulated to use that anger to double down on the dysfunction.

[El Guapo]

FWIW, Popehat still thinks it's more likely than not that he is not indicted, but he had moved from unlikely to plausible. (If you are a paid subscriber, he's dropped 2 podcasts this week looking at Eastman and yesterday's events!)

My assessment has shifted along those lines as well. It remains the case that it's going to take enormous stones to go ahead with an indictment of Trump, and what we've seen so far about the personality of Garland doesn't give me much hope that he's the guy to pull the trigger on it.

That said, the odds that some ambitious prosecutor puts together a package saying "here's the case, please give me permission to indict" have gone up considerably, and if that happens then the odds of an indictment go way up (as it's much easier to say no to the general concept of indicting a former president than it is to say no to a specific case with supporting evidence, even if the case is tough).

[malchior]

FWIW, Popehat still thinks it's more likely than not that he is not indicted, but he had moved from unlikely to plausible. (If you are a paid subscriber, he's dropped 2 podcasts this week looking at Eastman and yesterday's events!)

My assessment has shifted along those lines as well. It remains the case that it's going to take enormous stones to go ahead with an indictment of Trump, and what we've seen so far about the personality of Garland doesn't give me much hope that he's the guy to pull the trigger on it.

Another indicator last night was a NY Times article about the Clark/Eastman searches/raids here. It looks like the Clark investigation in particular is being run through the IG's office. It sort of makes sense since he was an employee but it potentially means that the efforts are bifurcated. With some group(s) chasing the electors stuff and another chasing Clark. And it seems the latter is specifically composited to make sure the DOJ's institutional concerns are protected.

It still feels like Garland is acting in the role as an avid institutionalist playing a long game based on the rules pre-2016. We'll have to see what comes out of it but the guy just is too much of an institutionalist to be the person we need in this hour. Much like Biden and a lot of the leadership. It's a damn shame.

[hepcat]

All it takes for Trump to get a foothold when the truth starts to catch up with him is one shred of doubt...like the sudden tweets yesterday about secret service agent wanting to go under oath and testify Hutchinson's allegations were false. Doesn't even matter if THOSE aren't true. They're now a part of the public discourse and Trumpers will use it to discredit any and all further allegations. It won't work for those who can't stand the Mangerine now, but it may for those who are still sitting in the middle lane wondering what the hell's going on in the other two.

Trump has normalized lying to a degree that I don't think can be understated.

[LawBeefaroni]

All it takes for Trump to get a foothold when the truth starts to catch up with him is one shred of doubt...like the sudden tweets yesterday about secret service agent wanting to go under oath and testify Hutchinson's allegations were false. Doesn't even matter if THOSE aren't true. They're now a part of the public discourse and Trumpers will use it to discredit any and all further allegations. It won't work for those who can't stand the Mangerine now, but it may for those who are still sitting in the middle lane wondering what the hell's going on in the other two.

Trump has normalized lying to a degree that I don't think can be understated.

It's a classic strategy. You stick to it and if no agent testifies to the contrary, it floats out there unchallenged forever. You win.

If an agent testifies and says it actually happened, the focus is on steering wheels and secret service agents, not on an insurrection plot. You win.

[malchior]

[waitingtoconnect]

Cassandra or Kassandra in Greek mythology was a Trojan priestess dedicated to the god Apollo and fated by him to utter true prophecies but never to be believed.

Seems Cassidy is fated to never be believed by Trumpists...

[waitingtoconnect]

Trump is just the pre taste of what the extreme christian Republicans have to come. Trump is just a foil.... its those waiting in the wings who will have us celebrating a national purge day before the Democrats realise it. Based on history we can some most will end up joining the new regime.

Some Republicans are acting just as in Nazi Germany. Hitler was not appointed chancellor as the result of an electoral victory with a popular mandate, but instead as the result of a constitutionally questionable deal among a small group of conservative German politicians who had given up on parliamentary rule. They hoped to use Hitler's popularity with the masses to buttress a return to conservative authoritarian rule, perhaps even a monarchy. Within two years, however, Hitler and the Nazis outmaneuvered Germany's conservative politicians to consolidate a radical Nazi dictatorship completely subordinate to Hitler's personal will.

This is a very dangerous time.

[waitingtoconnect]

This is trial by media. It has to be done right. She shouldn't have been allowed to say things as hearsay the committee hadn't already proven as factually happening.

At the very least they needed to wrap this around Trumps actual comments that the SS refused to let him go when he demanded it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politi ... t-00023737

Trump said he deserved more credit for drawing such a large crowd to the Ellipse — and that he pressed to march on the Capitol with his supporters but was stopped by his security detail. “Secret Service said I couldn’t go. I would have gone there in a minute," he said.

[Unagi]

I agree with all of those posts and would like to sign up for your newsletter.

[Carpet_pissr]

Apparently the SS agents agree Trump was furious about not going to the Capitol. That'd leave he only things in dispute the "assault" and lunging at the wheel. Which she wasn't even first party to. The committee interviewed all these folks already so it seems odd if they didn't think she was telling the truth. It also wouldn't change about 95% of the impact from today's testimony.

I hear you, but I'm not sure why *this* is what you think will set you over the edge. The country is sunk, and it's been apparent through hundreds of examples for 5+ years (if we're being extremely charitable) now. The *best case* scenario is that this investigation ends with a small fraction the impact it should have had months ago, with 30% of the population still insisting until they croak that Trump is their lord and savior.

IMO barring something proving she made it all up, the discussions about threat assessments, the efforts to reduce security to arm the crowd, etc. If this doesn't net Trump then I think we've essentially hit rock bottom. We are a shit hole counrry even if Trump is prosecuted but we would be on some track to restoration of law and order. Absent that we are a shit hole where the elite run rampant. Fuck that. If you can get out of here before if/when it gets bad, it just makes sense. As a cherry on top, couple all that with the reality of a United States ruled in judicial tyranny...it might be smart to pack up no matter what.

If you (we) believe that, I mean REALLY believe it, have you considered what to do with any investments you are currently in? If we are well and truly fucked, I'm thinking you should sell every long position and either go short, or go to cash. The looming recession/bear market might never turn around if the future is shit (for this country). It will likely transform from temporary and typical bear market cycle to "the beginning of the end of the almighty Dollar as king of the financial world."

If global and domestic faith in our country goes to hell as we are overtaken by religious (faux or not) zealots and authoritarian types, I have to assume so go our crazy strong financial markets. We will no longer be seen as stable (I think that has already started to happen, from an investment perspective), and since rule of law will give at least somewhat to corruption....further erosion of confidence.

[malchior]

If you (we) believe that, I mean REALLY believe it, have you considered what to do with any investments you are currently in? If we are well and truly fucked, I'm thinking you should sell every long position and either go short, or go to cash. The looming recession/bear market might never turn around if the future is shit (for this country). It will likely transform from temporary and typical bear market cycle to "the beginning of the end of the almighty Dollar as king of the financial world."

I have considered it and have done absolutely nothing. I don't think they're that strongly coupled. The American economy isn't going to derail as we fall into fascism. There will be disruption but I don't see some exodus of capital. I could see an exodus of smart people leaving which will eventually have impact but if it happens that's far out.

If global and domestic faith in our country goes to hell as we are overtaken by religious (faux or not) zealots and authoritarian types, I have to assume so go our crazy strong financial markets. We will no longer be seen as stable (I think that has already started to happen, from an investment perspective), and since rule of law will give at least somewhat to corruption....further erosion of confidence.

We'll be injured for sure but I don't think it is apocalyptic financially. I mean we are seeing some dumb stuff that could be headwinds. For example, my favorite target Musk is being a real idiot. They've been doing public layoffs because of this 'huge recession' risk when demand for his product is off the charts. It's fucking stupid. And the point isn't to be a responsible shepherd of his company's resources. He's the Gym Jordan of billionaire assholes. It's fucking performative.

I said it elsewhere but we haven't seen much evidence of demand destruction even in the face of high interest rates. That's why we saw some upward bounce over the last few sessions. It's not all doom and gloom there. The Fed will keep raising rates and eventually we'll find some equilibrium. Maybe it'll be harmful but the recession if/when recognized? I think in real terms we are in the middle of it and it isn't going to have major impact. Therefore, I do nothing and long-term expect a reversion to the mean in some 'not even remotely close to forever' time frame.

[Skinypupy]

Hutchinson's testimony apparently "blindsided the DOJ", who was hearing all these things for the first time, same as the rest of us.

Totally fine that the right hand has no earthly idea what the left hand is doing, right?

[LawBeefaroni]

When the hands don't trust each other, makes sense.

[LordMortis]

I'm not sure I'd trust the DoJ either. As a nation, my faith in institution is pretty much dead. Thanks Supreme Court, Congress, the Executive office, and quite frankly, my state political malfeasance as well.

The Supreme Court was sort of the last hope, even as McConnell, the worst American of my lifetime, sought its corruption in 2015.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'm not sure I'd trust the DoJ either. As a nation, my faith in institution is pretty much dead. Thanks Supreme Court, Congress, the Executive office, and quite frankly, my state political malfeasance as well.

The Supreme Court was sort of the last hope, even as McConnell, the worst American of my lifetime, sought its corruption in 2015.

Amen to all of that. Sadly.

[Skinypupy]

Meadows brought election fraud allegation claims to Barr the day after the election

Not surprising, but one more thing to add to the pile of evidence.

[Alefroth]

This is trial by media. It has to be done right. She shouldn't have been allowed to say things as hearsay the committee hadn't already proven as factually happening.

How do you know what they have or haven't proven and what do you think was hearsay?

[waitingtoconnect]

This is trial by media. It has to be done right. She shouldn't have been allowed to say things as hearsay the committee hadn't already proven as factually happening.

How do you know what they have or haven't proven and what do you think was hearsay?

She wasn't in the car and she was told it happened. So its hearsay.

What worries me the most is that through all this these guys were terrified of consequences at the time. But there was no consequences. That's not good. Now they know there are none they will try again.

[Alefroth]

Does it really meet the definition of hearsay?

She didn't testify what happened, she testified what she heard.

How is that different from testifying anything she heard Meadows say?

[Unagi]

Does it really meet the definition of hearsay?

She didn't testify what happened, she testified what she heard.

How is that different from testifying anything she heard Meadows say?

I mean you are right, It's not. She is giving first-hand testimony to what she heard people say. But 'what they said happened' isn't evidence that it happened, and that is what the media seems to be wrongly running with.
I think Malchior pointed this out earlier too.

To be clear, she provided nothing but Hearsay evidence to the fact that Trump was hysterical with that SS driver.

And, I think all parties in this conversation understand that her testimony on the Beast scene was just her direct evidence of her going into the room and being told what she was told - but it's not evidence to the Beast/Trump steering wheel grab.


But, of course, the key thing here is that the Insurrection Commitieess's hearing only presented it as evidence to what was said in the room, and they even laid that out a bit when they said "and that person never told you it didn't happen?", etc.

She was told that Person 1 was attacked.
Person 1 was in the room and didn't correct the tale being told to her. That is her testimony.

If the person that told her that comes up and says that never happened, then her credibility can be called out (I suppose, but we all know that's probably BS too).
If Person 1 says that he was never attacked, they then need to explain why they didn't correct the story being retold to her in that room.


Also, I've been told this "that never happened" SS guy has had a previous story that he said "never happened". (I would need to find that... but it would perhaps point to a 'the secret in SS is that it never happened!!!")

[El Guapo]

So, there are a million and one exceptions to hearsay, and obviously it gets inconsistently applied by courts, but the very basics are this. Testimony by someone about what they heard / were told that's submitted as evidence for truth of what was said is hearsay. E.g., the steering wheel bit is hearsay in terms of proving that Trump grabbed the steering wheel. It's not hearsay in terms of proving that she was told that it happened.

Of course, that she was told this is absolutely evidence supporting the conclusion that the steering wheel stuff happened, notwithstanding that it's hearsay. The core reason why courts restrict the use of hearsay evidence is that the general view is that it's better to hear from someone who directly witnessed the thing than someone who was told about it later. Among other things, the direct witness can be better questioned about the details. BUT courts do have a million and one situations in which they will allow hearsay. The easy ones being stuff like the direct witness is unavailable / incapacitated / dead. There's also more questionable ones like an excited exclamation ("holy shit, I just came from the president's rally, and he grabbed the steering wheel and tried to force the secret service to drive him to the Capitol!").

And of course, this is all really only relevant in a court of law, not in congressional hearings and the like. The key point being that people sometimes talk about this stuff like hearsay = worthless, when that's not the case, especially when the person is testifying under oath.

Thus ends my TED Talk.

[Alefroth]

That's probably why her attorney felt comfortable about her testifying this without perjuring herself, huh?

[waitingtoconnect]

I definitely admire her courage. I hope to God Trump gets stopped. Imagine if Obama or Clinton or BLM had done this. Would there be no consequences?

[stessier]

Ken with an explainer. (The House Judiciary GOP twitter is run by Jim Jordan)

[dbt1949]

What is going to be the result of all this when it's over? Republicans in the House and Senate will block any punishment if any. Republicans don't get embarrassed.

[Unagi]

What is going to be the result of all this when it's over? Republicans in the House and Senate will block any punishment if any. Republicans don't get embarrassed.

Hopefully people (as in voters) stop voting for them because they see who they are.

But this is the United States of Apathy and we are asking for people to pay attention and give just the smallest of shits... so, yeah.

[El Guapo]

What is going to be the result of all this when it's over? Republicans in the House and Senate will block any punishment if any. Republicans don't get embarrassed.

Hopefully people (as in voters) stop voting for them because they see who they are.

But this is the United States of Apathy and we are asking for people to pay attention and give just the smallest of shits... so, yeah.

Plausible consequences include:

(1) criminal prosecutions for one or more people involved, including Trump (depending on Garland, so......not super hopeful as discussed, but this has helped make this more likely at least)

(2) Republicans may back DeSantis instead of Trump in 2024 (TBD, but also becoming more likely)

(3) Generalized shame

[Scraper]

What is going to be the result of all this when it's over? Republicans in the House and Senate will block any punishment if any. Republicans don't get embarrassed.

Yeah Congress and the Senate might flip this November, BUT the Justice department will stay under the Executive Branch's control for at least 2 1/2 more years. So any prosecution that starts by the end of this year has a good shot at getting completed prior to the next Presidential election.

[Carpet_pissr]

A couple of pages after The Big Testimony and it's still about...the steering wheel? Also, that was what was running in the news headlines...so I ask again. How is that in any way even problematic for Trump? He LITERALLY said "THEY LET ME GRAB THEM BY THE PUSSY" and it had no effect. Steering wheel>pussy?

I will say it again, if we are hanging our hope on SteeringWheelGate, this is truly more nothing than I expected. I really would think his asking for them to remove the magnometers(sp?) would be a much bigger deal given the implications there.

[Jaymann]

And here I thought he was saying remove the magazines from the guns. Removing metal detectors is even worse.