Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[LordMortis]

I'm not throwing stones; I eat a solid quarter-dozen donuts whenever I have the opportunity.

I'm not a fan of doughnuts but I do this every OctoCon Saturday for reasons I don't understand. Stupid chocolate cake doughnuts. At OctoCon they suddenly are the best thing ever to go with my coffee (which I consume way too much of (probably 30 oz a day and then a whole lot of water after noon) to fill the void of 3 20 oz Cokes everyday)

[Blackhawk]

There's nothing that bad about a donut a day, as long as you're accounting for it in the rest of your diet. 5g of saturated fat in a snack is bad, but if you're only getting 3g the rest of the day it's fine. And 10 grams of refined sugar is fine as long as you're watching your other sugar intake (recommendations for men are less than 36g/day of added sugars.) If you're eating your greens, watching other sources of sugar, getting exercise... it's fine.

[Zarathud]

As a parent of two Type 1 diabetics, you can have sugar or carbs in your diet. You just need to be aware of (a) total caloric intake vs exercise/metabolism and (b) the mix of fats/protein to carbs. That fatty donut is better than a soda because the fat (or protein) content slows down your digestion of the carb sugar so your blood sugars don’t spike.

My kids NEED more sugar than they ever received before their diagnosis - because their body doesn’t process sugar and needs to balance insulin.

Added food sugar is particularly bad when you think you’re being healthy, because you binge and throw off your natural insulin use/production. A donut is better than a banana for carbs/sugars — assuming you already have enough potassium and fiber in your diet. While cereals are carby, they can eat a Special K protein cereal without a 4-hour blood sugar spike.

A egg sausage sandwich is a great blend that will fill you up without a blood sugar spike. Remember that for the next Octocon.

[Smoove_B]

I could watch this 100 times and it will never stop amusing me.

I went to an ANTI-MASKER rally and explained Dunning-Kruger to them.
I think he gets it!

[noxiousdog]

Also, that's not how Dunning Kruger works.

They don't think they are the smartest, they just overestimate their knowledge the most. Ergo, if you're in the 10th percentile, you might think you're in the 25th, while someone in the 25th might think they are in the 35th.

[malchior]

Also, that's not how Dunning Kruger works.

Sure but that's probably the best way to explain it to a belligerent moron on a street.

[LordMortis]

A egg sausage sandwich is a great blend that will fill you up without a blood sugar spike. Remember that for the next Octocon.

Nuke it Egg sausage cheese croissants are 4 for $2.69 at Aldi's. My freezer gets filled every time I make a run.

[The Meal]

Delicious video.

Also, that's not how Dunning Kruger works.

They don't think they are the smartest, they just overestimate their knowledge the most. Ergo, if you're in the 10th percentile, you might think you're in the 25th, while someone in the 25th might think they are in the 35th.

I appreciate the extended explanation (it'll keep my mental picture of D-K from being oversimplified). Also, welcome to a 3:49 skippable video instead of a 0:42 slice of deliciousness.

[noxiousdog]

Delicious video.

Also, that's not how Dunning Kruger works.

They don't think they are the smartest, they just overestimate their knowledge the most. Ergo, if you're in the 10th percentile, you might think you're in the 25th, while someone in the 25th might think they are in the 35th.

I appreciate the extended explanation (it'll keep my mental picture of D-K from being oversimplified). Also, welcome to a 3:49 skippable video instead of a 0:42 slice of deliciousness.

There's some folks (and ongoing research) to test whether D-K is actually real vs. a revision to the mean situation. The 10th percentile person has 90% of the spectrum to guess where they are, vs the 90th percentile person has only 10%. That's a bit granular, but experts know they are experts (with little room to think they know more) and novices know they novices (but lots of room to think they are close to average). That would also be divorced from delusional folks (ie conspiracy theorists) who make up a small segment of the overall population.

edit: I only know this from a podcast. I'm a novice

[The Meal]

I'll need to think more on whether I believe that. I'm perfect for this, because I've studied none of it and have strong opinions about my mental capacities!

[noxiousdog]

I'll need to think more on whether I believe that. I'm perfect for this, because I've studied none of it and have strong opinions about my mental capacities!

FWIW, experiments have delivered results supporting both conclusions.

[LordMortis]

I'll need to think more on whether I believe that. I'm perfect for this, because I've studied none of it and have strong opinions about my mental capacities!

Me too. I'm an idiot and boy does it show. I make poor assumptions and uninformed snap decisions frequently. I'd like to believe that I learn from my mistakes but evidence suggests my beliefs aren't founded reality. But then there seem to be a pretty big contingent of people around me whom are also idiots but don't ever stop to smell the flowers of their idiocy.

[Blackhawk]

GG/OO helped me with that. I used to think that way all the time. Then I started hanging out with people on GG/OO, and they quickly put me in my place. Now I only think that way most of the time.

[Dramatist]

I got my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine about three hours ago. So far I feel fine.


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[Zaxxon]

I got my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine about three hours ago. So far I feel fine.

That's not much of a dramatist sort of comment.

[RunningMn9]

Also, that's not how Dunning Kruger works.

They don't think they are the smartest, they just overestimate their knowledge the most. Ergo, if you're in the 10th percentile, you might think you're in the 25th, while someone in the 25th might think they are in the 35th.

Estimation of knowledge is inversely proportional to actual knowledge. The less you know, the more you think you know. The more you know the more you know how little you know.

Also, confidence is inversely proportional to knowledge.

[Blackhawk]

Can't we just go with, “The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing"?

[Kraken]

If you guys need to know something, just ask me. I'm a really stable genius.

[Dramatist]

I got my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine about three hours ago. So far I feel fine.

That's not much of a dramatist sort of comment.

So this morning at 4am I woke up feeling sore all over. This was right on schedule 12 hours after the vaccine. Right now I feel like I have been hit by a bus.

I remember reading here that after having Covid the first dose acts like the booster but does anyone know about how I might feel after the booster in three weeks?


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[Smoove_B]

I remember reading here that after having Covid the first dose acts like the booster but does anyone know about how I might feel after the booster in three weeks?

Could be the same, could be worse, could be nothing at all - the stories and experiences are all over the place and there's no firm pattern. I'd say plan for the worst and hope for the best (as cliche as that is).

[LordMortis]

After our seven day moving average dropped to 1000 cases per day in Michigan earlier this month, we are now already back up to 3,500 and rising (St Pat's weekend spike, I'm sure is just now starting to reflect and the two week mark is approaching). 3,500 a day when 700,000 have already been infected and 2.3 Million have been vaccinated. I think fatigue is complete and there is no more holding back. In CostCo and Home Depot, my two March trips out of the house, I've seen people wearing their masks around their necks, let alone below their noses, so the the mandatory mask signs are basically for show and they are allowed to roam the store freely.

I don't think I'll be renewing my Costco membership this year but we'll see how much I change by then.

It's still not warm enough for everyone to spend the bulk of their time together out of doors but floodgates are open. This isn't going to go well for all too many people.



And I still wait for contact for my turn in line. I have to say, I'm annoyed that so many reckless with no consideration for their fellow persons get priority treatment.

[Unagi]

In the suburbs of Chicago, everyone is still totally mask compliant.

[El Guapo]

Yeah, in my neighborhood (SW Boston) mask usage is essentially 100%. To the point where I feel a little implicit shame on occasions where I'm maskless outside coming to and from my car and the like.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

As I learned last week, 0% of repairmen in Charleston are mask compliant when entering a house.

[El Guapo]

The refridgerator repairman who came to my house last summer was basically wearing a full-on gas mask when he came in.

Though the guy who came to look at my radiator last month just had a thin piece of cloth on.

[ImLawBoy]

As I learned last week, 0% of repairmen in Charleston are mask compliant when entering a house.

Non-masked people do not get to enter my house, but I've never been called on to enforce it. All repair people/installers/plumbers/etc. have been wearing masks when I open the door.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I hope that I would have insisted as well if these people needed to spend any time in my place and/or were coming farther in that the laundry room. As it was, the two people each spent about 30 seconds in the laundry room looking at the issue while I kept the laundry room door to the outside open and was rocking a double mask.

[LawBeefaroni]

Yeah, in my neighborhood (SW Boston) mask usage is essentially 100%. To the point where I feel a little implicit shame on occasions where I'm maskless outside coming to and from my car and the like.

Same.

I will note that about 80% of the time if there is a traditional family unit outdoors, the mom and kids will be masked but the dad won't (mask under chin or held in hand with beer-coffee-cup).

[ImLawBoy]

Yeah, in my neighborhood (SW Boston) mask usage is essentially 100%. To the point where I feel a little implicit shame on occasions where I'm maskless outside coming to and from my car and the like.

Same.

I will note that about 80% of the time if there is a traditional family unit outdoors, the mom and kids will be masked but the dad won't (mask under chin or held in hand with beer-coffee-cup).

Stop spying on me!

When we go on walks, I carry the mask with me and put it on when I see we're coming up on people. We're not doing parks or group gatherings or anything, so that's about it for us outside.

[LordMortis]

Let's just say my Costco is not exactly in a blue nesting area. I was happy with their demands for compliance until sometime post Christmas but now my once or twice a month shop there is every other month or less and that's just not worth price of membership. As open as the place is, I don't imagine it's all that high risk, but the point is the rules are clearly stated and neither the establishment nor the patrons care. Of course, if those weren't the rules, I'd have different concerns and would still take issue.

with regard to outdoor, I don't do much outdoors from my house at this point. If I am in a parking lot I have a mask on if only because I'm coming or going toward being indoors.

[Blackhawk]

I can't imagine wearing a mask outdoors unless there are actually going to be people in my vicinity. I'm not too worried about giving the trees COVID.

[Smoove_B]

Rates of #COVID19 are increasing across the U.S.

As of March 23, the 7-day average of new cases per day is 56,225. Help stop the spread of COVID-19.

Wear a mask.
Stay 6 feet apart.
Avoid crowds.
Get a vaccine when it’s available to you.

[LordMortis]

Look at us! Darkest state in the nation! Yay warmer weather, opening of bars, and St Patrick's day weekend traditions! And by all means keep wearing that mask around your neck when you are grocery shopping and we'll all just look the other way because you're so fucking special and free.

[Octavious]

I think NJ is mostly my office causing the spike.

[stessier]

Bah - we've fallen to second place. I'm sure we'll get back to the number one spot soon with Spring Break starting next week (for colleges, the week after for grammar schools).

[Lorini]

CA is looking good! Probably because so many have already been affected but still...

[Kraken]

Yeah, in my neighborhood (SW Boston) mask usage is essentially 100%. To the point where I feel a little implicit shame on occasions where I'm maskless outside coming to and from my car and the like.

In Braintree, compliance indoors is still 100%, although a larger proportion of people are only technically cooperating (neck gaiters, masks below the nose, etc). Outdoors, nobody's using them anymore. When Wife and I were out walking last week, we passed a young couple on the other side of the street, and the woman cheerily called out "It's so nice to see people without masks again!" (ours were around our necks, and not visible). I don't pull mine up unless I'm going to pass within 10 feet of someone.

[Paingod]

To the point where I feel a little implicit shame on occasions where I'm maskless outside coming to and from my car and the like.

I'd be more concerned with people thinking I was a Republican.

The people who don't agree with racism and voter suppression really need to form a new party if the old one doesn't change. I don't exactly like casting them all under the same umbrella.

[Kraken]

NY Mag dives into How the West Lost Covid.Why did some countries/states that intervened minimally fare better than those that took drastic action? The answer(s) is long and complicated and spans disciplines so I'm just going to slap down one quote to give you one angle.

As Peter Baldwin documents in his forthcoming comparative history of the pandemic, Fighting the First Wave, speed was probably the most significant factor in determining national outcomes, and just about every nation in the West failed to move quickly enough. With the exception of Japan, whose light pandemic remains something of a mystery even within the context of the “Asian miracle,” all of the successful national campaigns resemble each other in the speed and intensity of response, and all of the failures share a similar reluctance to move preemptively — instead needing to be forced into action by the disease. “I kind of come down to a kind of almost deterministic line, which is that we are dealing with an exponential or semi-exponential kind of a process,” says Tooze. “Either you control this early on, in which case the trade-offs are relatively manageable and all sorts of conventional things make sense, or you don’t and you end up in a space which really no advanced polity’s decision-making process is very good at coping with. And so then it’s really a matter of degrees of failure across the board.”

If you're Smoove you'll enjoy the whole long article.

[Jeff V]

I dunno, seems pretty simple to me. The political party in charge didn't want to deal with it, so they mischaracterized it, leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. The fools who followed them were the instruments of their own destruction.