Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

[LawBeefaroni]

And GME is back up after Mark Cuban gets on a reddit AMA and tells them hold and buy more.

They must be losing the battle then because I'm seeing GME $82. Still down more than 63% today.

Yep. If you look at the tape, there's a huge volume increase and a bounce off the lows but didn't last or lead to anything.

Just irresponsible of Cuban.

[pr0ner]

And GME is back up after Mark Cuban gets on a reddit AMA and tells them hold and buy more.

They must be losing the battle then because I'm seeing GME $82. Still down more than 63% today.

Yep. If you look at the tape, there's a huge volume increase and a bounce off the lows but didn't last or lead to anything.

Just irresponsible of Cuban.

Yep. Very true. Tempted to ask the group chat I'm in that was pimping GME $1000 how they're doing, but I feel like that would be mean at this point.

[LawBeefaroni]

Don't have the exact time of the AMA but it was close to the low of $74. We're now at $94

More capital transfer.

[pr0ner]

Cuban's final post in the AMA, just before 11 AM.

Final thought. First thanks for the great questions. Thanks for changing the game. Thanks for taking on Wall Street. Thanks for making kids around the country if not the world, including my son, want to learn about stocks and try trading them (Including my son and daughter). WSB changed the game far more than everyone on this board will ever get credit for.

That said, you will do all this again. You will go after WS and the next time you will be smarter. There was only one thing that messed you all up: RobinHood and the other zero commission brokers that everyone used didnt have enough capital to fund the fight. They let you down in a big way.

When you load back up, fight a broker with TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS in assets on their balance sheet. Someone that can be there when the fight starts and wont blink an eye.

No disruption is easy or happens in a straight line. Stay with it. I am a believer

Ugh.

[LawBeefaroni]

$119 now.

[LawBeefaroni]

Cuban's final post in the AMA, just before 11 AM.

Final thought. First thanks for the great questions. Thanks for changing the game. Thanks for taking on Wall Street. Thanks for making kids around the country if not the world, including my son, want to learn about stocks and try trading them (Including my son and daughter). WSB changed the game far more than everyone on this board will ever get credit for.

That said, you will do all this again. You will go after WS and the next time you will be smarter. There was only one thing that messed you all up: RobinHood and the other zero commission brokers that everyone used didnt have enough capital to fund the fight. They let you down in a big way.

When you load back up, fight a broker with TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS in assets on their balance sheet. Someone that can be there when the fight starts and wont blink an eye.

No disruption is easy or happens in a straight line. Stay with it. I am a believer

Ugh.

Sounds like he's sending them to SCHW or Fidelity? IAB? Wonder where he's invested.

[pr0ner]

I know Schwab does no transaction fee trades now. But I wonder how many of those WSB kids could get access to margin with a legit broker when they have no assets because YOLO.

[LawBeefaroni]

AMZN after the bell. I'm expecting good numbers. Didn't buy more but am holding.

[malchior]

AMZN after the bell. I'm expecting good numbers. Didn't buy more but am holding.

This has been one of my long-time holds. I happened to look at it anticipating the news and couldn't believe my cost basis on the stock is like 1/10th the current price...5-ish years ago. I bought 3 shares to allocate them a basket of $1000. Crazy how well that has paid off.

[Carpet_pissr]

AMZN after the bell. I'm expecting good numbers. Didn't buy more but am holding.

I sold off mine to "gravy" (house money, if you prefer) this past summer, then gradually bought more since it went down so much. If we go to around $3,500, I'm selling (again). My gravy's gravy as it were.

I am supremely thankful to Amazon since the liquidation of my previous Amazon shares directly funded the current Carpet Pisser's Drug Stock Emporium...basket.

I also (unfortunately) sold the principle in my GM stock before this latest big boost, but that's the game. Held such a huge chunk of that for years, only to sell most of it before the actual big runup.

[LordMortis]

The barrier to entry for AMZN is just too high for me but I have to figure they are prominently represented in my Index ETFs, which is over 50% of my portfolio. All my index funds list AMZN at about 2.6% so about 1.3% of my portfolio in AMZN.

[LawBeefaroni]

AMZN after the bell. I'm expecting good numbers. Didn't buy more but am holding.

This has been one of my long-time holds. I happened to look at it anticipating the news and couldn't believe my cost basis on the stock is like 1/10th the current price...5-ish years ago. I bought 3 shares to allocate them a basket of $1000. Crazy how well that has paid off.

My original basis was $900somerthing and I was a long time naysayer. I want to say I bought maybe 3 years ago? I've traded in and out a few times so real basis may be lower. Latest batch is $2900s from November.

[pr0ner]

AMZN helped me put the down payment on my current condo.

I own no direct shares now, but I have plenty of exposure to it via various mutual funds and my retirement account.

[malchior]

I should sell it because it is overvalued but they also can't seem to lose. I think they'd somehow come out on top if the sun was to go supernova. The biggest risk they face is probably MS and with their pitch to peel off AWS enterprise customers and lock them into the Azure ecosystem by leveraging O365 licensing. And that is the fight emerging for who will get market share of a huge pie eventually. Cloud adoption is still a relatively small piece of IT shop spend overall and will probably get much bigger with time.

[LawBeefaroni]

AMZN crushed but Bezos is stepping down as CEO. Reaction is slightly negative.

$125B sales sales vs. $119 consensus estimate. EPS more than doubled Q YoY.

On guidance for next Q, consensus expectations were $95.5B, Amazon is estimating $100-106B.

[Carpet_pissr]

AMZN crushed but Bezos is stepping down as CEO. Reaction is slightly negative.


Consensus expectations were $95.5B, Amazon is estimating $100-106B.

I guess I could look for it, but way back ,many pages when I first started selling most of my shares, that was one of the reasons I listed at the time...possibility of losing Bezos as CEO. I wouldn't be surprised if he has planned this for a while, but maybe wanted to wait for a blowout quarter to offset the shock.

Edit: Ah ha, not that long ago! Hopefully I was wrong about the stock imploding...we'll see. I have to assume the AWS guy that's replacing him is no slouch.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread
Post by Carpet_pissr » Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:57 pm

Some comments from reading the past 3 or 4 pages, since I've been gone awhile;

1. AMZN - Someone a few pages back mentioned that $3,000 AMZN is insane. I remember a couple (?) years ago, and then before that, we had quite a discussion around that very topic. Except that back then it was like $2,000, then $1500, etc. I won't rehash now, but can we finally agree (as a financial community - not just here, I mean analysts, both good and bad, over the years) that AMZN was right, and the naysayers, yes, all the smart analysts from the very early years who joked about the continually high valuations given the lack of profits, etc., were wrong. Obviously, you try to fit AMZN into a traditional DCF model or any other repeatable analysis concept that I've seen, and it looks insane. Has looked that way for years. Having said ALL that...I finally started seriously selling off my shares over the past several weeks.

Few reasons:
1. It had reached and far surpassed my very optimistic "sell point" (that I will note I continually adjusted up, over the years, so take that FWIW) That point was around $2600, and had been at that number for at least a couple years.
2. It had become a massive % of my entire (including my wife's) portfolio. So oversized that if Bezos sneezed and the stock went down 5%, I would have had a very very bad day. I think it reached 38% of my total at the peak. That's just...not good.
3. I read a relatively pessimistic article about future growth which made a lot of sense. Most neg articles about AMZN over the years have been the same old tired criticism using DCF models that are/were frankly boring, and very wrong. (Not knocking DCF, I still adhere to the concept, just was not great for AMZN) Crazily it was from The Motley Fool (mostly ad bait these days), but it hit me with some serious numbers, mainly the massive amount of market saturation that AMZN already has (US market) with Prime, specifically. Can't remember the exact numbers, but the percentage of households who already have Prime were so high, there just wasn't much elsewhere to go but down (one component of many in the article)
4. Mr. Bezos Goes to Washington. I had been pretty wary for the past couple years at how quickly AMZN was gobbling up companies, and how quickly it had been growing. Anti-trust action was increasingly in my investing mind about my holding, and when I heard he was finally going before Congress, that put some serious sweat beads on my forehead. I used it as an excuse (didn't hurt that stock was trading at an all time high or close, around $3200 maybe? $3400?) to dump a crapton of shares. Just too risky that some congressman pulls out a surprise report he'd been working on for 2 years showing obvious anti-trust behavior and recommending a breakup, etc. It didn't go down like that, but it certainly could have.
5. If ANYthing were to happen to Bezos...gets sick, retires, goes insane from being a near trillionaire (yes, he's on course to being the first human trillionaire) and lights his mounds of cash on fire around him...the stock will absolutely implode. He is pretty much AMZN (right now), and you don't hear much talk of succession, or a strong number 2, etc.

[LawBeefaroni]

GOOG with a solid Q too.



Re:Bezos/AMZN, Jassy isn't a rockstar but I think Wall Street respects him well enough. This is an orderly succession. It may take the shine off the quarter numbers but don't see it cratering the stock.

[Carpet_pissr]

Amazon is now up slightly AH, if that means anything. I think it at least means it's not going to "implode" at tomorrow's open.

[LawBeefaroni]

Amazon is now up slightly AH, if that means anything. I think it at least means it's not going to "implode" at tomorrow's open.

Conference call was at 4:30 eastern. Not listening but I imagine they're explaining how Bezos will still be very hands-on as chairman, etc. Plus it doesn't actually happen until Q3.

[Carpet_pissr]

Amazon is now up slightly AH, if that means anything. I think it at least means it's not going to "implode" at tomorrow's open.

Conference call was at 4:30 eastern. Not listening but I imagine they're explaining how Bezos will still be very hands-on as chairman, etc. Plus it doesn't actually happen until Q3.

Bill Gates-esque?

[pr0ner]

Geez, looking at all the losses posted at WSB....

Is it bad I don't feel sorry for any of them?

[LordMortis]

GSK down nearly $2 pre market on earnings disappointment. Currently $35.70. I'm debating trying to free up money to get some. Not sure how realistic that is, as I just bought a few shares of VTI on the last general dip last week.

[LawBeefaroni]

OSTK, CRON, SEED doing it for me today.

POWW been strong all week.

[noxiousdog]

I should sell it because it is overvalued but they also can't seem to lose. I think they'd somehow come out on top if the sun was to go supernova. The biggest risk they face is probably MS and with their pitch to peel off AWS enterprise customers and lock them into the Azure ecosystem by leveraging O365 licensing. And that is the fight emerging for who will get market share of a huge pie eventually. Cloud adoption is still a relatively small piece of IT shop spend overall and will probably get much bigger with time.

It's not that over valued.. if it is at all. While it's trading at a very high multiple, the growth rate makes it justifiable. It's real earnings and there's real growth.

2023 earnings are supposed to be $91 (37 multiple to today's price putting a PE/G of less than 1). They've beat earnings estimates 13 of the last 16 quarters by an average of $2 per share.

Just as an anecdote, we use both Azure and AWS and while Azure has its positives, AWS is by far the better cloud for enterprise applications... and it keeps getting better.

[LawBeefaroni]

GME Feb 5 $800 calls have traded over 16K contracts today. High 37.30, low $5. One giant red candle.

$800 calls on GME?! Oy.

$0.42 today but people are still buying. 12K contracts traded. They were as high as $142 or so on Monday.

[pr0ner]

In a really random fact, I checked my Schwab account earlier today and my gain for the day was exactly $0.50.

I think this is the closest I've ever come to looking at one of my accounts and finding either no loss or no gain at that point of the day.

[LawBeefaroni]

Missed APPH yesterday. Had a buy order in but was too stingy. Could have raised by $1 and got shares. Ah well.


In TPB, SEED. Still trying to get more SLGD below $2.5. Watching VERU.

KOPN is a favorite in the group I'm in but haven't done my own research.

VERU blowing up. I'm up 25%. Sell the news?

Didn't do KOPN, it's also up huge since I mentioned it, like over 50%.

[LordMortis]

Missed APPH yesterday. Had a buy order in but was too stingy. Could have raised by $1 and got shares. Ah well.


In TPB, SEED. Still trying to get more SLGD below $2.5. Watching VERU.

KOPN is a favorite in the group I'm in but haven't done my own research.

VERU blowing up. I'm up 25%. Sell the news?

Didn't do KOPN, it's also up huge since I mentioned it, like over 50%.

Man I wish I had money to throw around. Even up as much as it is Option for the 19th at $15, are $1.65 for the current $12.61. If I had $1261 laying about I'd be tempted YOLO it... until the 19th....

[pr0ner]

GME is down under $60 now.

[Isgrimnur]

[LawBeefaroni]

VERU up 45%. Having KOSS flashbacks. Holding for now, which is not to.plan and probably too reactionary. Hate these mindfucks.

[Zaxxon]

VERU up 45%. Having KOSS flashbacks. Holding for now, which is not to.plan and probably too reactionary. Hate these mindfucks.

You are on a roll, good sir. All I've done lately is rake in some cash via TSLA put sales.

[LawBeefaroni]

Missed APPH yesterday. Had a buy order in but was too stingy. Could have raised by $1 and got shares. Ah well.


In TPB, SEED. Still trying to get more SLGD below $2.5. Watching VERU.

KOPN is a favorite in the group I'm in but haven't done my own research.

VERU blowing up. I'm up 25%. Sell the news?

Didn't do KOPN, it's also up huge since I mentioned it, like over 50%.

Man I wish I had money to throw around. Even up as much as it is Option for the 19th at $15, are $1.65 for the current $12.61. If I had $1261 laying about I'd be tempted YOLO it... until the 19th....

$2.55.

[LawBeefaroni]

Buying some ANDA this morning. Not a WSB trade, just caught my eye based on screens and charts and building up a position. Average cost right now is $11.68. Speculative short term.

$12.72.

Trying to add SLGD ($2.50 or below). Speculative long term.

Nothing below the ask. This is hard to buy.

[LordMortis]

CNBC talking about the tax surprise to retail investors this morning. I've been talking and wondering about that since at least November when it became clear to me that retail investing in 2020 seems to thrive on the idea that stocks only go up and have traded so actively... Me being one of those retail investors who sold stock for the first time ever in 2020 but not at the pace or gains that has been driving the market since July.

[Carpet_pissr]

LOL didn’t think about that.

Newly minted RH “investor” late 2020: OMG, look at all these gains I made! (Yelling) “HEY MA, I’m moving outta the basement!!! I’m super rich now!”

IRS in 2021: hello, youngster! Welcome to 2021! Time to pay for those gains from last year!

Basement boy: uh, what? Ohhhh, right. (Does some cursory googling about cap gains tax) Well, at least my income is so low I guess my ST cap gains tax rate will be super low!

IRS: not so fast there, young whippersnapper! Your gains have moved you up two income tax brackets (congrats!). Now pay up.

(Insert sad trombone sound)

BB:

Aaaaand SCENE!

[Zaxxon]

Well, at least my income is so low I guess my ST cap gains tax rate will be super low!

I know you're joking, but I imagine there are a ton of newly-minted retails who think there's such a thing as a short-term cap gains rate. Or rather that they misunderstand the rules and think that their ST sales will be taxed at cap gains rates rather than as ordinary income.

[pr0ner]

Yeah, I know some people for who tax time is gonna be a rude awakening for their moves into the world of Robinhood day trading in 2020. And they don't make the most money to begin with.

[LordMortis]

TD shows me at about $1800 in taxable short term gains in addition to my dividend income in 2020. I still fear I'm going to be in for a rude awakening when figuring out how it all shakes out once put into IRS forms. This is first for me and I'm small time.

Wash sales were revaluation to me in July and at that time I started to try to be careful about tax implications and understanding them and I fear six months later I'm still woefully ignorant.

[Zaxxon]

TD shows me at about $1800 in taxable short term gains in addition to my dividend income in 2020. I still fear I'm going to be in for a rude awakening when figuring out how it all shakes out once put into IRS forms. This is first for me and I'm small time.

Pretend it's ordinary income (since it is). Add it to your guesstimated AGI when trying to determine how it's going to impact you.