Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:17 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:09 pm This seems like a pretty bold claim:

Had American leaders taken the decisive, early measures that several other nations took when they had exactly the same information the U.S. did, at exactly the same time in their experience of the novel coronavirus, how many of these Covid-19 deaths could have been prevented?

That isn’t a hypothetical question. And the answer that emerges from a direct comparison of the fatalities in and policies of the U.S. and other countries — South Korea, Australia, Germany, and Singapore — indicates that between 70% and 99% of the Americans who died from this pandemic might have been saved by measures demonstrated by others to have been feasible.

The argument seems reasonable and they don't even get into the dysfunction. A good representation probably is the logistical nonsense like sending supplies to places that did not need them over places that had an immediate urgent need. It might be early even to evaluate as we continue to underperform.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:01 pm

I'd be willing to forgive even, say 60,000 deaths. If it just took some time to gear up for testing and PPE distribution, etc.

But the fact remains we're 120,000+ into this and there's still absolutely no plan to deal with it other than "let people die while we wait for some miracle vaccine."

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:03 pm

Far be it for me to try to excuse Trump, but I personally would put it at 70% rather than 99%. I don't think it would have been politically feasible for any President to have implemented the kinds of steps necessary to have reduced it by 99%. IIUC, the countries that did had similar experiences in the recent past that they learned from and gave more political will for those kinds of steps.

Jaymon · Post by **Jaymon** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:29 pm

I can't show you the specific numbers, but I will talk about them.

travel industry is gradually picking up. US travel is around 40% compared to last year at this time. EU travel is about 25%. Both of these had fallen to less than 10% during the initial weeks of corona and lockdowns. I don't have a good insight to APAC numbers. Business travel is still way down, nobody is traveling for work unless its absolutely required. Hotels stays are improving faster than other forms of travel. Big chains are fairing better than boutique properties or self owned properties. Airplane tickets are cheap. And nobody is taking a cruise.

I can't really approve or disapprove, and I am biased because travel pays my paycheck. But personally, I think its a good time to start a bonsai collection, rather than go to the beach.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:22 pm

400 arrested at anti-covid protest in the Hague. This lunacy isn't only in the US. My co-worker moved to the Hague for our client and watched this go down from his apartment.

Some 400 people were arrested in The Hague on Sunday in a day of protests against the coronavirus measures, police said on Sunday evening. The arrests were mainly made after police moved in to clear demonstrators from the Malieveld near the city’s main railway station. The rally had been banned by acting mayor Johan Remkes last week, a decision that was upheld in court on Friday. Nevertheless, despite the ban, hundreds of people gathered at the Malieveld early on Sunday afternoon. Remkes did then agree to allow a smaller rally to go ahead, on the condition it was over by 13.30 and that demonstrators kept their distance from each other. The atmosphere, which had been largely positive, turned when groups of men, some chanting ‘we are Nederland’ first joined the demonstration and then later headed into the town centre, which had been sealed off by police. Police brought in water cannon and horses to clear the crowds, telling one couple with a young child ‘you had better leave, not everyone is here with good intentions’, the Volkskrant reported. Remkes said on Sunday evening that police were aware that ‘different groups of trouble makers, including football supporters’ were planning to join the demonstrators in The Hague, which is one reason why the original protest had been banned. ‘This was nothing to do with the right to demonstrate or freedom of speech,’ Remkes said in a statement. ‘This group was out to cause trouble.’ Most of those who were picked up police, including passersby who had not been at the demo, were allowed home on Sunday evening.

Read more at DutchNews.nl:

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:20 pm

Jaymon wrote: ↑Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:29 pm I can't show you the specific numbers, but I will talk about them.

travel industry is gradually picking up. US travel is around 40% compared to last year at this time. EU travel is about 25%. Both of these had fallen to less than 10% during the initial weeks of corona and lockdowns. I don't have a good insight to APAC numbers. Business travel is still way down, nobody is traveling for work unless its absolutely required. Hotels stays are improving faster than other forms of travel. Big chains are fairing better than boutique properties or self owned properties. Airplane tickets are cheap. And nobody is taking a cruise.

I can't really approve or disapprove, and I am biased because travel pays my paycheck. But personally, I think its a good time to start a bonsai collection, rather than go to the beach.

I wonder what will happen to cruise ships cut from the fleets of the tourist lines.

Some will go to scrap, but it's not hard to imagine some oligarch or financial kingpin or Elon Musk buying one to establish an offshore floating greed colony in international waters.

How much do torpedoes cost again?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:18 pm

“But did you ask to slow it down?” St. George pressed.

“Uh, if it did slow down, frankly, I think we are way ahead of ourselves, if you want to know the truth,” Trump insisted without answering the question. “We’ve done too good of a job. Because everytime you go, with 25 million tests, you’re going to find more people.”

“The reason we have more cases is we do more testing!” he added.

Trump (at rally): "Testing makes the numbers go up! I tell my people to slow the testing!"

Surrogates (next day): "Heh heh He was so very clearly joking. Can't you take a joke?"

Trump (today): "No, seriously, slowing the testing would be great! Really, it's terrible for the numbers!"

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:34 pm

I still see it as a way for him to self praise. A sort of you "We'll be winning so much, you won't be able to stand it" and a way for him to say they are using statistics against you. I am using statistics for you. You can only trust the numbers I give you.

He seems incapable of giving a straight answer, a commitment to anything, even the obvious easy stuff. Is that in any of his books on how to sell snake oil? Like eventually increased testing will be an infringement on liberty, a drain on economic growth, and socialist burden of cost put on the tax payers according to MAGATs and he can't go record as having supported it. Given the resistance mask wearing in the more public but close spaces, that supposition might be right.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:36 pm

Just got the message that I'm still expected to attend a family vacation (sharing a house with extended family members) in Delaware in early August.

Spoiler:

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:38 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:36 pm Just got the message that I'm still expected to attend a family vacation (sharing a house with extended family members) in Delaware in early August.

Spoiler:
GTFO

"I am so excited to attend. Of course, I expect everyone else to stay away so we can continue social distancing. I'll Skype you when I get there!"

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:39 pm

How much testing are the federales performing, anyway? I'm under the impression that coronavirus response is entirely on the states, with the federal role limited to issuing conflicting and contradictory guidelines at random intervals, and interfering in the supply and distribution of PPE.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:39 pm

Noted infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist Larry Kudlow says I have nothing to worry about. So that's settled.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:39 pm

Illinois.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Monday released new guidelines for Illinois as the state looks to move into phase four of its reopening plan on Friday.

Phase four of the "Restore Illinois" plan allows for the reopening or expansion of several industries, including indoor dining at restaurants, health and fitness, movies and theaters, museums and zoos and more. This next phase also increases the size of gatherings that are allowed from 10 people to a maximum of 50 people.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:40 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:39 pm How much testing are the federales performing, anyway? I'm under the impression that coronavirus response is entirely on the states, with the federal role limited to issuing conflicting and contradictory guidelines at random intervals, and interfering in the supply and distribution of PPE.

If the Feds have the reigns on essential materials (and they seem to with the fiascos of states having to hide deliveries of PPE and Ventilators from them) one would expect they're also in control of the flow of test kits/results. They turn the knob, testing slows down.

Of course, with fewer tests we can look forward to greater infection rates since people won't know one way or another if they've got it and continue to expose others without anyone asking them not to.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:43 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:39 pm Noted infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist Larry Kudlow says I have nothing to worry about. So that's settled.

He may not be an epidemiologist but he sure knows how to put a band-aid on hemorrhage. The market is propped up like never before!

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:36 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:36 pm Just got the message that I'm still expected to attend a family vacation (sharing a house with extended family members) in Delaware in early August.

Spoiler:
GTFO

Does your family even know you?

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:39 pm Illinois.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Monday released new guidelines for Illinois as the state looks to move into phase four of its reopening plan on Friday.

Phase four of the "Restore Illinois" plan allows for the reopening or expansion of several industries, including indoor dining at restaurants, health and fitness, movies and theaters, museums and zoos and more. This next phase also increases the size of gatherings that are allowed from 10 people to a maximum of 50 people.

I look forward to changing absolutely nothing about my life and staying home as much as possible.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:41 pm

WTF? Why would anyone even be thinking of indoor dining and movie theatres? Even if I saw compelling data that movie theatres could be not crazy risk if everyone's wearing masks throughout (though good luck enforcing that), I really don't get the risk / reward vs. watching something at home.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:43 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:41 pm WTF? Why would anyone even be thinking of indoor dining and movie theatres? Even if I saw compelling data that movie theatres could be not crazy risk if everyone's wearing masks throughout (though good luck enforcing that), I really don't get the risk / reward vs. watching something at home.

The movie theater thing is even crazier because people will be routinely eating throughout the movie. Whether you require masks or not, the masks will come off frequently. It's a total non-starter.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:51 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:36 pmDoes your family even know you?

I mean, really.

Even better is that two of the people attending have chronic health issues. I get that my risk calculator isn't normal but that doesn't mean I'm somehow able to disregard my evaluation because family is involved. I'm going to counter with a camping vacation where everyone involved can maintain family distance via different sites and can also socialize fully in the outdoors. I'm not unreasonable.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:54 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:43 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:41 pm WTF? Why would anyone even be thinking of indoor dining and movie theatres? Even if I saw compelling data that movie theatres could be not crazy risk if everyone's wearing masks throughout (though good luck enforcing that), I really don't get the risk / reward vs. watching something at home.
The movie theater thing is even crazier because people will be routinely eating throughout the movie. Whether you require masks or not, the masks will come off frequently. It's a total non-starter.

We're seeing now the push from the "economy" side of the decision making process. There will apparently be people comfortable enough with risk that they'll eat indoors or go see a movie. I'm still quite curious to see what happens to the first restaurant or movie theater that has a worker diagnosed with COVID-19. The lawsuits will be epic, though difficult to prove who is actually at fault.

Regardless, we're going to continue this great experiment until there's another outbreak, those unlucky people will get sick and/or die from whatever it is they were doing and we'll all stand around and wonder how it happened.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:31 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:41 pm WTF? Why would anyone even be thinking of indoor dining and movie theatres? Even if I saw compelling data that movie theatres could be not crazy risk if everyone's wearing masks throughout (though good luck enforcing that), I really don't get the risk / reward vs. watching something at home.

Judging by our alley this morning, you're not the only one. No fewer than three 65" TV boxes out there by the bins.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:40 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:41 pm WTF? Why would anyone even be thinking of indoor dining and movie theatres? Even if I saw compelling data that movie theatres could be not crazy risk if everyone's wearing masks throughout (though good luck enforcing that), I really don't get the risk / reward vs. watching something at home.

Most movie-goers are young people on dates. They're invulnerable, so dinner and a movie will still be a thing.

I also read that most (or many?) of the new cases in surging states are being found in asymptomatic 20- to 40-year-olds. They're carrying and spreading the virus, but mostly not suffering from it. These are the folks who'll be doing dinner and a movie. They are also the reason we can't have nice things.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:02 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:40 pm I also read that most (or many?) of the new cases in surging states are being found in asymptomatic 20- to 40-year-olds.

Have these states hit a point where they are just going around testing asymptomatic people? That's awesome if they/we are but odd that this isn't newsworthy, especially in the throw caution to the wind states and when they can support the POTUS weird non "we should test less" statements.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:04 pm

Lansing, MI
Pearland, TX
Wilmington, NC
Evansville, IN
Provo, UT
Independence, MO

Today, the #COVID19 death toll in the United States topped 120,000 people.
That is the equivalent of one of those cities being wiped off the map.
Think about that.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:33 pm

They claim a church member who's an A/C tech invented a way to zap Covid with ions. You can't get Covid at this church.

I have so many questions.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:43 pm

I bet the 0.1% that remains is pretty killer, though.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:50 pm

I'm sure the Secret Service will have no problem with the Rube Goldberg device attached to the HVAC system.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:56 pm

The thing is, this isn't even the first time I've seen a media preacher claim to have just such a device.

Another was a tightly-wound old-school Evangelical who very prominently used the Power o' GAWD to banish Covid from America and eliminate the need for Sunday-morning lockdown. (This was months ago, so I assume it didn't work.) They claimed to have an HVAC virus-zapper too, presumably as backup.

I'm 99.9% sure it wasn't the same church.

Jaymon · Post by **Jaymon** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:19 pm

D+ is releasing the big screen flicks straight to streaming. Don't know if Mulan will come, but we saw Onward and Artimes Fowl. Still waiting to find out about Black Widow. We did not pay 20 bucks to see the new trolls movie, although I kinda wanted to.
I enjoy the theater experience, but this is almost as good, and a tremendous cost saver. Because of the kids at least half of what we see is Disney now anyways, so its all good.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:23 pm

Welcome to the club, Florida. I mean, let's be honest - it was probably something you did last week (at least) but only "officially" being recognized today.

Florida has hit a grim milestone — passing 100,000 cases of the coronavirus. The latest report from the state's Department of Health adds 2,926 new infections to the total number of COVID-19 cases, which now stands at 100,217 with 3,173 deaths.

Along with Florida, six other states have registered more than 100,000 cases: New York, California, New Jersey, Illinois, Texas and Massachusetts.

Like some other states, Florida has seen a surge of COVID-19 infections in recent weeks. A new record high of 4,049 new cases was set Saturday. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has linked the rising number of cases to increased testing.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:48 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:23 pm
Ron DeSantis has linked the rising number of cases to increased testing.

GODDAM THAT TESTING!!

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:52 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:50 pm I'm sure the Secret Service will have no problem with the Rube Goldberg device attached to the HVAC system.

Set ionizers to Trump.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:53 pm

Holman wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:23 pm
Ron DeSantis has linked the rising number of cases to increased testing.

GODDAM THAT TESTING!!

It really is amazing how junior high mathematics are lost on so many.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:07 pm

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:53 pm
Holman wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:23 pm
Ron DeSantis has linked the rising number of cases to increased testing.

GODDAM THAT TESTING!!
It really is amazing how junior high mathematics are lost on so many.

And ultimately it's not even a math problem. Math is just the language used to express (or obscure) real human suffering.

I think Trump genuinely believes that if there were no testing then the the problem would go away. It's not that he thinks no one would get sick or die from the virus; it's that he believes a chart with no cases would look like successful policy.

In other words, the virus isn't the problem. The charts are the problem.

He's a sociopath.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:38 pm

In case you need an article to share with friends and family that are confused.

In short, there's absolutely a phenomenon we watch for when monitoring for disease outbreaks, where it can look like one is occurring when instead there are other factors we're not considering. However, that's not the case here - and it's also why we're monitoring not only the tests being offered but the positivity rate and hospitalization rate.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:51 pm

Jaymon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:19 pm D+ is releasing the big screen flicks straight to streaming. Don't know if Mulan will come, but we saw Onward and Artimes Fowl. Still waiting to find out about Black Widow. We did not pay 20 bucks to see the new trolls movie, although I kinda wanted to.
I enjoy the theater experience, but this is almost as good, and a tremendous cost saver. Because of the kids at least half of what we see is Disney now anyways, so its all good.

We paid the money for Trolls 2 so you wouldn't have to. Take my word for it. DO NOT RENT. Ugh.

Also, just for reference, we all really enjoyed the first - enough that my daughter watching it about a billion times didn't bother me all that much. Even she did not want to watch 2 a second time.

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:36 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:38 pm In case you need an article to share with friends and family that are confused.

In short, there's absolutely a phenomenon we watch for when monitoring for disease outbreaks, where it can look like one is occurring when instead there are other factors we're not considering. However, that's not the case here - and it's also why we're monitoring not only the tests being offered but the positivity rate and hospitalization rate.

There are a lot of obvious ways to get an idea of what's going on. How many people are dying every day/week/month in each state? How do 2020 numbers compare to the previous years? For instance, if Florida reports a relatively low amount of COVID-19 deaths that's great but not so great if pneumonia deaths are inexplicably high this year. That would mean COVID-19 is killing more people than reported but it's not being counted that way. For this to work the federal government has to take the lead and gather all this data. This is not going to happen since the federal government under Trump's lead seems to be the most disinterested in finding out what's really going on. You can't depend on the states to do it since some of the governors have already decided to follow Trump's lead.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:31 pm

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:02 pm
Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:40 pm I also read that most (or many?) of the new cases in surging states are being found in asymptomatic 20- to 40-year-olds.
Have these states hit a point where they are just going around testing asymptomatic people? That's awesome if they/we are but odd that this isn't newsworthy, especially in the throw caution to the wind states and when they can support the POTUS weird non "we should test less" statements.

IDK how they're finding them, but here's one report verifying that they are.

Across the South, some officials are raising alarm about an increased number of younger people testing positive for the virus.

In Texas, the governor said last week people under 30 made up a majority of new coronavirus cases in several counties. He said that increase in young infected people could be related to Memorial Day parties, visits to bars or other gatherings.

And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Saturday cases are "shifting in a radical direction" toward populations in their 20s and 30s. Those younger groups, he said, are mostly asymptomatic and don't require clinical attention.

Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:10 am

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:23 pm In the article about about Trump's Tulsa hate rally, this caught my eye:

“I don’t fear anything. If today is the day I die, today is the day I die," said Riniker, 62, who drove to Tulsa from his home in Arkansas earlier this week to attend what he said was his first political rally since Ronald Reagan was running for office. "I'm not paranoid, I'm not afraid."

Riniker brought a homemade mask that his neighbor had given him and said he would wear it "if the need arises," but doubted it would come that.

"I'm not stupid," he said Friday, on the eve of the rally. "I'm not going to jump in a den of snakes and sit in front of someone who is coughing uncontrollably. But I do have a mask just in case."
Proving, yet again, that people have no idea why masks were even recommended in the first place.

1)“I don’t fear anything. If today is the day I die, today is the day I die," I personally know people who have this attitude and I just don't get it. To me this means you have given up on taking any responsibility for your life and everything is just meant to be. Does this mean that you stop wearing seatbelts? cross the street without looking? take a nap on some railroad tracks cause you happen to be tired right then? You know a determined thief is gonna get into your house no matter what you do and if its meant to be, why not just take the doors off your house?
2) "I'm not paranoid" Paranoia "An unrealistic distrust of others or a feeling of being persecuted. Extreme degrees may be a sign of mental illness." so being concerned about a known virus is unrealistic?
3) He will wear the mask if the need arises... Does he have super-vision and can see the virus coming?

Sorry, but stuff like this really tweaks me.

Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:21 am

Jaymon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:19 pm D+ is releasing the big screen flicks straight to streaming. Don't know if Mulan will come, but we saw Onward and Artimes Fowl. Still waiting to find out about Black Widow. We did not pay 20 bucks to see the new trolls movie, although I kinda wanted to.
I enjoy the theater experience, but this is almost as good, and a tremendous cost saver. Because of the kids at least half of what we see is Disney now anyways, so its all good.

I think Disney has already come out and said they will not release Black Widow to streaming before a theatre release. They are assuming the theatres will be open by (I think) Nov. I think they have the same plan for Mulan.