Game On!

[El Guapo]

Right now Drazzil's the main player I have my eye on, I think mainly due to the second wolf comment. The wild card with him is that he's a first time player, and I would tend to assume (if it were me) that as a first time player he would be generally following the guidance of the other wolf, so I would think that his playstyle this game as a wolf would be influenced materially by whomever his wolf partner would be.

Lagom reads to me as probably a villager. Feels like he's evaluating and probing in a fairly normal manner, at least to me.

Newcastle tends to read as a wolf for me in most games, but I'm not sure I have ever been in a game where he actually was a wolf, so I feel like I have a high risk of a 'false positive' with him which leads me to be cautious about pushing him.

 Drazzil 
 

 Drazzil 
 

A brilliant, insightful day 2 post followed immediately by Isgrimnur popping in without analysis to piggyback. Does read a bit like he's trying to piggyback on villagers who are barking up the wrong trees (as I now think I was here).

[El Guapo]

Personally, I'm ok with either RMC or Issy today.


I'll go back to my day 1 choice of RMC.

 RMC 
 

Kind of seems like weak reasoning for a vote. Only day 2, but still..."that's who I voted for when I didn't have any information".

[El Guapo]

I'm still not sure that Newcastle and Scoop aren't the wolves but because you guys need another vote I'll go ahead and make it official.   RMC  
 

And Drazzil offs RMC without giving him a chance to speak at n-1. Probably the most suspicious thing he's done overall. Though I suppose that unless the wolves suspected that RMC was the seer they might not want to risk drawing fire by doing that.

[El Guapo]

Just saying I am all in on Unagi tomorrow. ALL IN!

Who's with me?

By the way people - if I die tonight , DO NOT let this comment from Newcastle clear him in your books.

We both KNOW youre gonna live!!!
Scared? Should be, cuz I am bringing the hammer tomorrow!

This whole thing is still weird. Still don't totally understand the logic of a villager Newcastle announcing the decision to start a next day train on the verge of night.

[Isgrimnur]

If I were interested in barking up the wrong tree, I could have voted on either of the villagers that were railroaded.

If you strike me down...

You’ll be sorry, because the village will miss. Again. And we will lose.

[El Guapo]

So, here are a few things that are bugging me:

1. Scoop went from thinking lagom could be a wolf "bullseye" comment; to following his lead by going after RMC. The flow and logic there dont add up. Why RMC? What was the move and argument made that made him take a whack at RMC.

2. Unagi then dropping in the third vote on RMC. Same argument of why drop that vote on RMC? -this doesn't feel like good unagi. I'd think good unagi would try to suss more information out.

RMC is at n-2 I think.

Right now I think the wolf pairing is Scoop & Unagi. Scoop for his willingness to go w/ lagom.

-right now if I would be looking for a way to get to the end game...which I think would be tomorrow? We are 9 today...tomorrow 7 and we are down to our last miss.

-also if RMC is a miss, then blame would be placed on Lagom (say he's a good guy) and he takes the fall for the rmc miss. Just saying, its a good move to pull.

-Both dont seem to be directing anything it seems like, which seems opportunistic if you will...which is a wolf mentality.

-also being in spot #2 & 3 on a good guy train means you avoid being n-1 or n-2 which is where the mass would look at for tomorrow's lynch.

Just saying this because I see zero case for RMC and yet we got scoop on him and unagi as well.

All I got for now.

This is interesting. Seems to presuppose that RMC was innocent before the actual lynching happens. Of course, he turned out to be right about that, but interesting that the argument seems to be semi-built around that at this point.

Also interesting that Lagom dies the same night.

Also curious (since I think I know his current stance on Unagi) whether Newcastle still feels the same way as here about Scoop.

[El Guapo]

-You're too dangerous to be left alive as an opponent to wolves (general rule of thumb).

-But you are right there is a train of thought to have 2 villagers (if Good unagi & newcastle) go after it. But is that the best strategic move, when one of those is a very sharp tool in the shed and the other is a neon nerf gun? Very risky move then.

-i did tell you your tell. We both know we had that conversation. And you are masking it like hell this game, kind of overcompensating.

-that's a lot of lazy finger pointing though that you have flacidly pointed at. Also, the RMC case was super light.

What is the 'tell''? I understand the rest of the argument, but hard to evaluate the 'going against a tell' argument without knowing what the tell apparently is.

Also it would be helpful to know for future games, if Unagi does turn out to be a wolf and he is in fact going against the tell.

[El Guapo]

I can jump on a  newcastle 
 
train.

If nothing else this suggests that the wolf team is not Isgrimnur and Newcastle.

[El Guapo]

Well, caught back up now. Going to sleep on everything and then cast a vote in the morning.

[Drazzil]

Sorry about that. I'm ready to cast a vote.

[Scoop20906]

Sorry about that. I'm ready to cast a vote.

Well I hope you used that time well.

[El Guapo]

 Isgrimnur 
 


Seems like the best candidate. No real analysis of his own, but regularly jumps in when someone's getting pressed, to be like "yeah, you go get that guy!" Also just a weird vibe in general.

[Isgrimnur]

[Newcastle]

REMUS-

Do the wolves know the role of the villagers they eat? IE if they snacked on the seer...do they know?

[Newcastle]

Also Holman did leave out a comma in that sentence...

My god, your right!

  remove unagi  
 



  j'accuse holman  
 

[Unagi]

So...question to the group....should we drop our "suspect list" that each of us and a quick note about them? I know a few have a page or two ago. Just to stir up some alternate conversations besides this seer convo.

And question to unagi - say you lynch me today, and i come back a villager...who are the 2 wolves? If i come back wolf, who's my partner?

For both scenarios It would depend on who ended up voting for you and who didn't and how they went about the day to get there.
There are a couple people I doubt you are partnered with, but nothing certain.

My list would mostly look like Holman's 'joke list'...
Everyone looks pretty bad - equally, and for diferent reasons.

You position that my vote on RMC was opportunistic, well before he was even lynched - let alone resolved to be human is probably the main thing standing out to me, as far as 'moves' I think I saw being made.
Holman then finding your post valid, then voting against RMC was another weird part of it. Someone was trying to make something there - against me I think - and the reasoning was poor (your reasoning) and Holman leaping onto it (but then voting too?) looked weird.
Scoop, Issy, El Guapo - all three hold a 'shadow' role in this game to me and any could be a wolf.
Drazzil, I basically trust - but obviously no one is totally in the clear yet here.

Again, my 'strength' in these games mostly comes from figuring out who isn't a wolf and this game hasn't let me come to that conclusion more than basically just leaning that way with Drazzil.

[Scoop20906]

I will vote Issy.

[Isgrimnur]

[Newcastle]

Issie - care to make a bigger and better argument as to why you shouldn't be chose to be today's offering? Besides those wonderful gifs. And maybe add in a bit of a suspect list. Please, pretty please?

[Newcastle]

So...question to the group....should we drop our "suspect list" that each of us and a quick note about them? I know a few have a page or two ago. Just to stir up some alternate conversations besides this seer convo.

And question to unagi - say you lynch me today, and i come back a villager...who are the 2 wolves? If i come back wolf, who's my partner?

For both scenarios It would depend on who ended up voting for you and who didn't and how they went about the day to get there.
There are a couple people I doubt you are partnered with, but nothing certain.

My list would mostly look like Holman's 'joke list'...
Everyone looks pretty bad - equally, and for diferent reasons.

You position that my vote on RMC was opportunistic, well before he was even lynched - let alone resolved to be human is probably the main thing standing out to me, as far as 'moves' I think I saw being made.
Holman then finding your post valid, then voting against RMC was another weird part of it. Someone was trying to make something there - against me I think - and the reasoning was poor (your reasoning) and Holman leaping onto it (but then voting too?) looked weird.
Scoop, Issy, El Guapo - all three hold a 'shadow' role in this game to me and any could be a wolf.
Drazzil, I basically trust - but obviously no one is totally in the clear yet here.

Again, my 'strength' in these games mostly comes from figuring out who isn't a wolf and this game hasn't let me come to that conclusion more than basically just leaning that way with Drazzil.

Thanks for your response. I'll drop mine later.

unagi - what should the seer do? come out today? Risk another night? Today is day 3. What's the move for the seer in case they are still alive?

[Isgrimnur]

I have a vote on you, and I have stated my case on Drazzil. El Guapo could certainly be playing 'helpful' villager, but I'm satisfied enough at the moment. I've told the truth. If I get voted off, the village will miss again and lose.

[Remus West]

1. Isgrimnur-Newcastle
2. El Guapo -
3. Newcastle-Unagi
4. Holman
5. Unagi -Newcastle
6. Lassr - eaten
7. Scoop -
8. Punisher - stabbed
9. Drazzil -
10. Lagom Lite - Swedish Meatballs
11. RMC - Scooped

7 remain. Majority is 4.
Current Vote Totals:


Scoop -
Holman -
Isgrminur -
Unagi -1
Newcastle - 2
Drazzil -
El Guapo -

[Holman]

Remus, did you post the wrong list?

[Drazzil]

Issie - care to make a bigger and better argument as to why you shouldn't be chose to be today's offering? Besides those wonderful gifs. And maybe add in a bit of a suspect list. Please, pretty please?

Goes twice for you unfortunately.

[Lassr]

REMUS-

Do the wolves know the role of the villagers they eat? IE if they snacked on the seer...do they know?

[Remus]No, they do not.[/Remus]

[Holman]

Remus, did you post the wrong list?

To clarify, I think the vote count up there is much outdated.

[Newcastle]

Leaning good
-Holman - inquisitive and trying to suss things, like a good villager does. Asking hard hitting questions.
-Drazzil - he gets a free pass this game from me. I DONT like the seer PM thing going on though. Makes me wonder if he is getting played or if its an elaborate wolf ruse.


Really not sure about
scoop - he's done a few things to raise my eyes on stuff; but sometimes its like...oh he could be good
el guapo - seems around, but cant tell if its a busy/lazy villager or a nefarious wolf
-Izzie - his popping in and out could be a wolf. Lazy analytics and jumping in and out of trains. Seems opportunistic.


leaning toward bad
-unagi - just seems massively out of character and he is not his normal self.

[Newcastle]

So...i want to talk more about the seer.....since i am still convinced they should come out and be revealed.


- this is day 3. You have 2 scans, let us know. Even if 1 is dead. Let us know.

-that language that Drazzil quoted is pretty darn obvious as to who wrote it. If its obvious to me, its obvious to the wolves.

-if this seer is fake, then we have a real seer who can pop out and counter claim.

-tomorrow is our last strike, too much chaos and little clarity if we have a. 2 contesting seers or b. a fake seer who points us toward a villager

-today we have a margin of error; tomorrow its gone. Buh-bye!

-historically seers come out around Day 3 or so. Its a good day to come out, have a few scans and can data dump.



Surprised no one else is pushing this.

[Isgrimnur]

-Izzie - ... jumping in and out of trains.

[citation needed]

Votes:
1. Isgrimnur - Scoop
2. El Guapo - RMC, punisher
3. Newcastle - RMC, Isgrimnur, Lagom Lite, Unagi, El Guapo, Drazzil, Unagi, Holman, punisher, Holman, punisher
4. Holman - Newcastle
5. Unagi - RMC, punisher
6. Lassr - Holman, Lagom Lite, punisher
7. Scoop - Newcastle, punisher
8. Punisher - Newcastle
9. Drazzil - Scoop, Lagom Lite, Newcastle
10. Lagom Lite - RMC, Holman, RMC, Lassr, punisher
11. RMC - Scoop, Newcastle, punisher

Current Vote Totals:
RMC -
Scoop - 1
Holman -
Isgrminur -
punisher - 7
Lagom Lite -
Unagi -
Newcastle - 3
Drazzil -
Lassr -
El Guapo -

6 votes is majority

I believe that is accurate. Please feel free to double check.

It's Monday. Taking Remus last vote count & updating...

Votes:
1. Isgrimnur -Drazzil
2. El Guapo - Drazzil, Isgrimnur
3. Newcastle -Unagi
4. Holman - Newcastle-RMC
5. Unagi - RMC
6. Lassr - eaten
7. Scoop - Drazzil, RMC
8. Punisher - stabbed
9. Drazzil -RMC
10. Lagom Lite - Drazzil, RMC
11. RMC - El Guapo

9 remain. Majority is 5.
Current Vote Totals:

RMC - 5
Scoop -
Holman -
Isgrminur - 1
Lagom Lite -
Unagi -1
Newcastle -
Drazzil - 1
El Guapo - 1

Voting Closed.

It's Monday. Taking Remus last vote count & updating...

Votes:
1. Isgrimnur -Drazzil
2. El Guapo - Drazzil, Isgrimnur
3. Newcastle -Unagi
4. Holman - Newcastle-RMC
5. Unagi - RMC
6. Lassr - eaten
7. Scoop - Drazzil, RMC
8. Punisher - stabbed
9. Drazzil -RMC
10. Lagom Lite - Drazzil, RMC
11. RMC - El Guapo

9 remain. Majority is 5.
Current Vote Totals:

RMC - 5
Scoop -
Holman -
Isgrminur - 1
Lagom Lite -
Unagi -1
Newcastle -
Drazzil - 1
El Guapo - 1

Voting Closed.

[El Guapo]

I will vote Issy.

I mean, I agree, though it would also be nice to get some more extended analysis from you.

[Holman]

So...i want to talk more about the seer.....since i am still convinced they should come out and be revealed.


- this is day 3. You have 2 scans, let us know. Even if 1 is dead. Let us know.

-that language that Drazzil quoted is pretty darn obvious as to who wrote it. If its obvious to me, its obvious to the wolves.

-if this seer is fake, then we have a real seer who can pop out and counter claim.

-tomorrow is our last strike, too much chaos and little clarity if we have a. 2 contesting seers or b. a fake seer who points us toward a villager

-today we have a margin of error; tomorrow its gone. Buh-bye!

-historically seers come out around Day 3 or so. Its a good day to come out, have a few scans and can data dump.



Surprised no one else is pushing this.

I really don’t think we have another Seer out there. If Drazzil were lying and the Seer were alive, the real Seer would already have come out to declare their scans *and* nab Drazzil as a lying wolf. That would be pretty good math.

Either Drazzil’s Seer is real or else the Seer is dead and he is being played.

[Holman]

Also Holman did leave out a comma in that sentence...

My god, your right!

  remove unagi  
 



  j'accuse holman  
 

Leaning good
-Holman - inquisitive and trying to suss things, like a good villager does. Asking hard hitting questions.

[...]

leaning toward bad
-unagi - just seems massively out of character and he is not his normal self.

This just doesn't add up.

[Newcastle]

Also Holman did leave out a comma in that sentence...

My god, your right!

  remove unagi  
 



  j'accuse holman  
 

Leaning good
-Holman - inquisitive and trying to suss things, like a good villager does. Asking hard hitting questions.

[...]

leaning toward bad
-unagi - just seems massively out of character and he is not his normal self.

This just doesn't add up.

You left out a comma. That's like a totally valid reason to drop a vote on you. Geez sensitive much.

[Remus West]

REMUS-

Do the wolves know the role of the villagers they eat? IE if they snacked on the seer...do they know?

No.

[Remus West]

Remus, did you post the wrong list?

Yes. Correcting now.

[Holman]

Thanks!

[Remus West]

1. Isgrimnur-Newcastle
2. El Guapo - Isgrminur
3. Newcastle - Unagi, Holman
4. Holman
5. Unagi -Newcastle
6. Lassr - eaten
7. Scoop -
8. Punisher - stabbed
9. Drazzil -
10. Lagom Lite - Swedish Meatballs
11. RMC - Scooped

7 remain. Majority is 4.
Current Vote Totals:


Scoop -
Holman - 1
Isgrminur - 1
Unagi -
Newcastle - 2
Drazzil -
El Guapo -


Should be correct. As always, check my work. I'm sleepy.

[Scoop20906]

I will vote Issy.

I mean, I agree, though it would also be nice to get some more extended analysis from you.

You covered it better than I did (thank you).

He drops in on a vote at just the right time. Other than that says little and frankly after my reading of the tea leaves the aren’t many better candidates.

I’ll say I think I know who the seer is. So if I eliminate him and I’m eliminating Newcastle based on his day one antics and Drazzil that leaves ... a few more.

Out of that batch my two wolves issy and Holman. Probably wrong.

[Isgrimnur]

Definitely wrong.

So Newcastle lied about my voting history, I provided evidence, and Scoop is doubling down on misrepresentation of my voting history.

I have placed a total of three votes, none of which ever wound up on a lynch. So why are these two misrepresenting my history in such a patently transparent way?

[Scoop20906]

Definitely wrong.

So Newcastle lied about my voting history, I provided evidence, and Scoop is doubling down on misrepresentation of my voting history.

I have placed a total of three votes, none of which ever wound up on a lynch. So why are these two misrepresenting my history in such a patently transparent way?

Let me go back and read.