Can John Kerry really win on Tuesday?
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Can John Kerry really win on Tuesday?
Hi guys,
Everything I have read in the past few weeks have suggested that this election is Bush's to lose. Every poll shows Bush ahead, recent (less than a week old) polling in Florida show Bush ahead there. Can John Kerry really win this election? Is there any hope at all for him or does he have to upset the odds in so many states that it is just not going to happen?
I personally cannot see John Kerry winning. I would love it if he did, I just can't see it happening. The "terror tape" this week has to help Bush by bringing National Security to the forefront of people's minds. I think that Bush is going to win Florida and I think he will win Ohio too. Without those two states there is now way that Kerry can win (is there?).
What are your thoughts guys?
Pointer
Everything I have read in the past few weeks have suggested that this election is Bush's to lose. Every poll shows Bush ahead, recent (less than a week old) polling in Florida show Bush ahead there. Can John Kerry really win this election? Is there any hope at all for him or does he have to upset the odds in so many states that it is just not going to happen?
I personally cannot see John Kerry winning. I would love it if he did, I just can't see it happening. The "terror tape" this week has to help Bush by bringing National Security to the forefront of people's minds. I think that Bush is going to win Florida and I think he will win Ohio too. Without those two states there is now way that Kerry can win (is there?).
What are your thoughts guys?
Pointer
- msteelers
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As has been pointed out, old polling models are less reliable than ever. In addition to those who don't answer polls we have the cell phone demographic.
Finally, there's the registration and turnout factor, which is likely not modelled in the current depiction of a likely voter. Republicans did a better job of turning out their vote in 2002 than in previous elections and the Democrats have certainly learned from that themselves.
We may still get a blowout, for one side or the other, but Tuesday night on paper looks to be an excellent matchup.
Finally, there's the registration and turnout factor, which is likely not modelled in the current depiction of a likely voter. Republicans did a better job of turning out their vote in 2002 than in previous elections and the Democrats have certainly learned from that themselves.
We may still get a blowout, for one side or the other, but Tuesday night on paper looks to be an excellent matchup.
- Freezer-TPF-
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Apparently, the Vegas odds are giving Bush a slight edge
Bush: 6-5 (slipped from the 7-5 he had in August)
Kerry: even money
http://texascitysun.com/story.lasso?wcd=7149
It should be an interesting night. I don't want to deal with the pre-work/school crowds so I will vote after work, probably within an hour of the polls closing here in VA. The big question: After Russert's little white dry erase board from 2000, which office supply item will step up and take the spotlight THIS time? Will he go to chalk? Powerpoint?
Bush: 6-5 (slipped from the 7-5 he had in August)
Kerry: even money
http://texascitysun.com/story.lasso?wcd=7149
It should be an interesting night. I don't want to deal with the pre-work/school crowds so I will vote after work, probably within an hour of the polls closing here in VA. The big question: After Russert's little white dry erase board from 2000, which office supply item will step up and take the spotlight THIS time? Will he go to chalk? Powerpoint?
When the sun goes out, we'll have eight minutes to live.
- Fireball
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National polls are meaningless, of course. The popular vote matters nil.
Kerry is in a very good position to perhaps run the entire FL-OH-WI triple crown... and in a slightly better position to do that than Bush. I'm using recent polling numbers and some guestimates regarding how last minute undecideds will break (and how many just flat out won't vote).
At this point, I'd give the chances of a pop/elect vote split to be better than even.
Kerry is in a very good position to perhaps run the entire FL-OH-WI triple crown... and in a slightly better position to do that than Bush. I'm using recent polling numbers and some guestimates regarding how last minute undecideds will break (and how many just flat out won't vote).
At this point, I'd give the chances of a pop/elect vote split to be better than even.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)
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Not really...but the Boston Red Sox won, so that is good news for Kerry as well!Poleaxe wrote:Do you follow baseball?Hetz wrote:Kerry will win easily.
Didn't you watch the Packers vs Redskins game? The Redskins lost, so GWB is going to lose for sure! It's been the same in the last 17 elections!
Anyway, I do think that Kerry has this election in the bag. GWB is losing ground day by day. I predict a record voter turnout and that ALWAYS favors Democrats.
Kerry is going to shock a ton of people and pull off the easy victory...at least until Bush, seeing that he lost, declares the results null and void and a plot by the terrorists to weaken the country, and declares himself EMPEROR! 8)
Then it's Civil War!
Or something like that.
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