Think we'll have record turnouts?

[LordMortis]

If my district this morning is of any indication the turnout this presidential election will be huge. I really wonder what that is saying. Is about the closeness of the last election? The predicted closeness of this election? The fright that the other guy gets in? Or are people actually excited about their candidate?

I'd like to see the percentage of registrations and voter turnout.

Oh and the whole motivating the young to vote thing was not apparent in my district this morning. I now know why I feel safe in my sub, though. I have a lot of retirees in my tiny district.

[Zaxxon]

Here in my district we had a ton of younger (<30) voters this morning. The turnout mirrored the composition of the apartment complex in which it was held, so this could just be coincidence. But there were a lot of people, and this was at 6:40 AM. I think it's safe to say the we'll see fairly high turnout, if not a record level.

[The Meal]

It'll be a record level, percentage-wise, for American Presidential elections within my lifetime, but honestly that's not saying much. I'll go out on a limb and say we'll see 82% of registered voters casting ballots.

~Neal

[Bob]

I'm going with 2.8% more than 4 years ago.

[noun]

Actually, I predict the voter response will be so large, that the people counting them will be overwhelmed. We'll also have a larger margin of error than usual, but that won't be realized until several months after the recount.

And oh yes, we will see recounts. Huge, ugly debacles from both the Democrats and Republicans.

[LawBeefaroni]

Yes, there will be record high turnout.

[noxiousdog]

It'll be a record level, percentage-wise, for American Presidential elections within my lifetime, but honestly that's not saying much. I'll go out on a limb and say we'll see 82% of registered voters casting ballots.

~Neal

Have you actually looked at voter turnout? 60% would be unprecedented in your lifetime. Well, unless you're old.

[Mr. Sparkle]

It'll be a record level, percentage-wise, for American Presidential elections within my lifetime, but honestly that's not saying much. I'll go out on a limb and say we'll see 82% of registered voters casting ballots.

~Neal

Have you actually looked at voter turnout? 60% would be unprecedented in your lifetime. Well, unless you're old.

I think he's talking at turnout among registered voters...

[The Meal]

It'll be a record level, percentage-wise, for American Presidential elections within my lifetime, but honestly that's not saying much. I'll go out on a limb and say we'll see 82% of registered voters casting ballots.

~Neal

Have you actually looked at voter turnout? 60% would be unprecedented in your lifetime. Well, unless you're old.

60% of whom?

~Neal

[Defiant]

.

[noxiousdog]

It'll be a record level, percentage-wise, for American Presidential elections within my lifetime, but honestly that's not saying much. I'll go out on a limb and say we'll see 82% of registered voters casting ballots.

~Neal

Have you actually looked at voter turnout? 60% would be unprecedented in your lifetime. Well, unless you're old.

I think he's talking at turnout among registered voters...

Hmm. I think you're right. Isn't a % of voting age population a better metric though? Measuring registered voters is like measuring the number of people that RSVPd that actually showed up at the party.

[LawBeefaroni]

It'll be a record level, percentage-wise, for American Presidential elections within my lifetime, but honestly that's not saying much. I'll go out on a limb and say we'll see 82% of registered voters casting ballots.

~Neal

Have you actually looked at voter turnout? 60% would be unprecedented in your lifetime. Well, unless you're old.

I think he's talking at turnout among registered voters...

Hmm. I think you're right. Isn't a % of voting age population a better metric though? Measuring registered voters is like measuring the number of people that RSVPd that actually showed up at the party.

But voting age population includes people you didn't invite to the party. Eligible voters is the best metric. Hard to come by, though.

[The Meal]

Isn't reading what I actually typed a better metric regarding my intentions?



~Neal

[Defiant]

.

[Mr. Sparkle]

When people say "record turnout", I think they mean in raw numbers of votes cast... which is kinda cheating, because the percentages don't have to be eye-opening to cause that, since we have more voting age peeps now.

[Dirt]

Everyone is predicting this. Early voting has already shown this.

[Defiant]

.

[Enough]

I'm glad to see the increasing numbers of registered voters, but as Nade's 1964 factoid points out even if every single one of the newly minted voters goes to the polls there is no way we will break the typical voter registration levels prior to 18 year olds getting the vote. But maybe this will be the election that starts to send us in that direction. Maybe when 18 year olds didn't have the vote it helped higher turnouts due to waiting to get to do something effect? Doubtful, but still odd that after they got the right to vote that voter registrations declined. I know I have voted in every election since I turned 18, including the off year and special election ones.

One aspect of the higher turnout this year that has been a letdown for me is that it's obviously for the president only and not some great rising new embrace of civic responsibilities. A local weekly paper went around interviewing first time voters here in Fort Collins and almost universally none of them gave a shit about local races and ballot initiatives and a number were not even planning on voting the local sections of the ballot. Don't these neophytes realize that one can actually once in a while get things done locally for their cause via voting? It reminds me of the C & Es at church. Bah, I am cynical and hear me roar!

Edit: As a footnote I do wonder if you eliminated the 18-21 year old vote from statistical consideration how would current registration levels compare to prior times of higher voter registration? In other words are fewer older people registered to vote also these days, or is the decrease in the registration levels for potential voters really only due to the massive numbers of young folks who don't bother to vote?

[Eduardo X]

If 50% of the voting population votes, I'll be surprised.
Of the registered voters? I suspect 50-65% will vote.

[The Meal]

Thanks for the link Nade. 86% of eligible voters actually voting isn't nearly as horrible as I had guessed our best had been in the past. Yay us!

~Neal

[Defiant]

.

[Kraken]

Despite the indisputable outcome of a Kerry landslide, Massachusetts forecasts a >60% turnout, which would be the best since 1968. People here just hate Bush that much. The majority of offices in my district were uncontested.

[Defiant]

Here are some early turnout reports from CNN.

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

http://www.race2004.net/

(Note, the site is slow due to heavy usage)

[Mr. Sparkle]

Despite the indisputable outcome of a Kerry landslide, Massachusetts forecasts a >60% turnout, which would be the best since 1968. People here just hate Bush that much. The majority of offices in my district were uncontested.

This reminds me of an anecdotal post on Daily Kos:

I live in DC, where almost nothing significant is decided on general election day. At best, you get some hot contests for city council -- though usually those battles are decided between Democratic contenders on primary day. As for presidential contests, the District is the antithesis of a swing state: It was carried by the largest margin of any jurisdiction in 2004 (Gore by 76.2%, which shames even Bush's Utah margin of 40.0%).

And yet the lines at my local polling station in the Adams Morgan section of Northwest DC look like scenes we've witnessed from TV broadcasts in Broward County, FL. I went to the front of the outside portion of the line at my voting location at 7:50, and the woman there said she began waiting at 6:50. The line wrapped around the block, and the next (shorter) block, probably 250-deep. The only explanation I can muster is that people here want to post the highest Kerry national vote winning margin possible, because the three electors are a lock.

(emphasis added)

Hopefully we can give them a run for their money.

Off to vote now... or more specifically, to spend an hour on public transportation, then vote.

[Dirt]

Record turnout in NM