OOWL Game 2, Wolf Victory

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:36 am

Remus West wrote:
theohall wrote:
Remus West wrote:If there were enough to give you pause then wouldn't that mean you would pause from voting for me?

I'm going to hold off voting to see what theohall and Lassr do.
How about you actually take a position on someone? This seems wolf-ish by trying to hide behind everyone else's decisions.

withdraw Isgrimnur

I did take a position on RMC. I already said I think he is the last wolf. How is that hiding behind everyone else's decisions?

I will tell you what I am waiting for though. I am waiting to see what you guys have to say regarding RMC's arguments before I rebut them.
Just because I have my position doesn't mean I am sold on it. I remain thinking that RMC is the last wolf. I am not certain and I wish to get as much posting out of the rest of you as possible. How is that wolfish?

Everyone else has to talk before you post your own rebuttal?? Why should everyone else have to talk first? Post your rebuttal and then let us say what we wish. I am trusting you less and less after thinking you might actually be innocent.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:44 am

Everyone else has to post their thoughts because I know my own innocence but am not certain of theirs. I also tend to post more so there is a lot of stuff out there regarding my thoughts and the way they have developed while there is very little on others. RMC, Isgrimnur, and (shockingly) Lassr, have posted very little in comparison to either of us. Things tend to draw my interest. For instance there was a comment made about Lassr being "out front" and agitating that I feel was a large mischaracterization of his play this game. I'm trying to get more of those types of things out there so that folks views of each other are shared today when we have a possible miss than tomorrow when it is game over. If you feel the need to vote for me over that feel free. I don't mind being lynched today if I can get a good feel for who the last wolf is (again, to assuage your need that I take a position, I currently feel it is RMC but I am not 100% sold on that) so I can leave you with good advice in the event of my lynching.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:52 am

The problem is they are not the ones RMC accused so there is no reason for them to say anything. They can just sit back and wait while you hope they say something.

I still think it is more Lassr or Isgrminur.

RMC's reasoning as to why he accused you seems sound.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:04 am

Here are my thoughts after much observation:

Isgrimnur was my prime suspect for his behavior after I voted for him on the 2nd day (defensive over just my 1 vote). He has since settled down, lesson learned or really a villager. I don't know.
Theohall was my #2 suspect. But I kept asking myself would I be all over the place like him if I was evil or more focused on getting someone lynched. His bouncing around may seem evil but I don't get that vibe anymore.
Remus was #3. I have gotten a good vibe from his posts which means he is probably evil since I've always had a hard time reading him.
We come to RMC: He was #4 on my list but his lack of posts makes it difficult so I really am willing to lynch RMC today even though he is not my top suspect. If it's a miss then we have more to work with tomorrow.

So I'm asking myself is it better to lynch my top suspect today and if it is a miss be left with RMC tomorrow (if he survived the night) or get him out of the way today.

Sorry for my lack of posts Remus but I guess I could have ezmated more since Unagi wasn't in this game.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:30 am

Lassr wrote:Sorry for my lack of posts Remus but I guess I could have ezmated more since Unagi wasn't in this game.

Our moderator might have taken offense, though.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:39 am

Remus West wrote:RMC, Isgrimnur, and (shockingly) Lassr, have posted very little in comparison to either of us.

In comparison, yes. But has been noted already, I have been much more vocal this time around than any time in the recent past. These games are smaller, quicker (supposedly), and the ranking system makes them more engaging to me.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:52 am

Isgrimnur wrote:I have been much more vocal this time around than any time in the recent past.

and I am trying to encourage that. Basically the main thought for me is that I tend to flood the game with posts which then means other people get lost in the shuffle. I am trying not to do that.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 12:07 pm

You and Grundverbose.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 12:27 pm

theohall wrote:
Lassr wrote:Sorry for my lack of posts Remus but I guess I could have ezmated more since Unagi wasn't in this game.
Our moderator might have taken offense, though.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:24 pm

Then he's going to love this.

I'm going in for surgery Friday morning at 6 a.m., and will likely have limited to no forum access during the weekend as I recover.

We have the deadline tonight at 9 (Eastern again, I assume). Depending on nighttime action, the denouement might run up against my absence, which I would like to avoid.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:28 pm

Well, it looks like the others are not going to share their thoughts beyond what they have done already.

As for RMC's accusations of me, to take that seriously you have to consider that were I a wolf it would mean that one the first day with a thirty five to go before the deadline I removed an innocent (as if I am the final wolf then theohall must be an innocent) from n-1 to vote for my partner and thus started a run that got him killed. So you need to ask yourself why a wolf would pull his vote and place it on his partner like that. Then ask yourself if it is much more likely that I am innocent and pulled my vote from theohall simply because I thought triggercut more wolfish and wanted to see what could happen. I think that even if you feel I was just intending to move my vote back you would see that it is not a wolfy move since if I pulled then replaced my vote on theohall and the lynch came up a miss it would only have served to get me way more attention than simply leaving my vote in place and letting him get pushed over for being to near the edge as the deadline closed in.

Anyway, I'm going to stick with my thoughts.
RMC

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:44 pm

I don't think anyone ever places the first vote on someone with the expectation that there's going to be a flash flood. A wolf could conceivably pull a vote late and move to their partner, figuring the groundswell won't be there.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 5:59 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:I don't think anyone ever places the first vote on someone with the expectation that there's going to be a flash flood. A wolf could conceivably pull a vote late and move to their partner, figuring the groundswell won't be there.

Which simply leads to the next part of the question. What wolf would pull his vote that late then place it back - possibly as the kill vote - on an innocent. What other action would scream quite so loudly that someone needed to be looked into.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:27 pm

Yes, but that part's speculation in this situation. You're stating that could have been your action, when it wasn't the case. In either case, you could have pulled the vote and not placed another one, and not caused any wonderment.

Regardless, we're on the same vote at the moment. Now we just need the Crimson Twins to weigh in and see where we're going to end up this evening.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:49 pm

RMC is at N-1.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:38 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Yes, but that part's speculation in this situation. You're stating that could have been your action, when it wasn't the case. In either case, you could have pulled the vote and not placed another one, and not caused any wonderment.

??

He pulls his vote without re-voting and a wolf dying would not cause wonderment??

Anyway, let's see what happens, since it looks to me like everything has been said.

RMC

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:42 pm

I'm back and I see the last vote has been cast.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:51 pm

theohall wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:Yes, but that part's speculation in this situation. You're stating that could have been your action, when it wasn't the case. In either case, you could have pulled the vote and not placed another one, and not caused any wonderment.
??

He pulls his vote without re-voting and a wolf dying would not cause wonderment??

Pulling the vote from an innocent on Day 1, not placing another vote, and the wolf dying from 5 other votes of the remaining 7 villagers? I wouldn't be trotting that out as evidence of certainty of wolfitude. I would think it just as likely that his partner voted on him to gain credence.

But then, we're not the same in readings. That's why we play the games. If it could be reduces to probability algorithms, we could just run 100 simulations and award the crown.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:22 pm

Well......

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:25 pm

Not a wolf... You are Wrong..

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:32 pm

RMC wrote:Not a wolf... You are Wrong..

Sigh. Hopefully you are screwing with me.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:34 pm

Remus West wrote:
RMC wrote:Not a wolf... You are Wrong..
Sigh. Hopefully you are screwing with me.

Nope not at all...

But you guys can have fun, but I bet the wolf kills you...

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:05 pm

RMC wrote:
Remus West wrote:
RMC wrote:Not a wolf... You are Wrong..
Sigh. Hopefully you are screwing with me.
Nope not at all... But you guys can have fun, but I bet the wolf kills you...

Sadly I doubt it kills me after this day.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:52 pm

VOTING IS CLOSED.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:53 pm

As with the past two days, the village debated and debated, trying to decide who would get the noose.

Today, RMC was chosen.

As night fell, though, the same thing that happened to scoop upon death happened to RMC. Nothing.

RMC was villager.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:55 pm

1. RMC - Remus West
2. Remus West - RMC
3. Isgrimnur - RMC
8. theohall - Remus West RMC Isgrimnur RMC
9. lassr

RMC (3) - Remus West, Isgrimnur, theohall
Remus West (1) - RMC

triggercut - lynched - wolf
Grundbegriff - beheaded in the night
scoop20906 - lynched - villager
bb2112 - disemboweled in the night

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:56 pm

IT IS NIGHT.

Wolves, who will you eat?
Seer, who will you scan?

Orders due Thursday night/Friday morning at midnight.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:09 am

pr0ner wrote: Seer, who will you can?

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:17 am

The Meal wrote:
pr0ner wrote: Seer, who will you can?

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:19 am

Another sleepless night. Another gloomy dawn. Another villager missing.

This time, it's Remus who was some wolf's dinner.

Anxiety set in. Would the village survive, or be obliterated?

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:21 am

3. Isgrimnur
8. theohall
9. lassr

triggercut - lynched - wolf
Grundbegriff - beheaded in the night
scoop20906 - lynched - villager
bb2112 - disemboweled in the night
RMC - lynched - villager
Remus West - devoured in the night

Majority is 2.
Deadline is Monday at 9 PM.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:38 am

Well crap. I know I am not a wolf...

Isgrimnur or Lassr then.....

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:51 am

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:09 am

Yeah, and I feel that I'm going to be the short one here.

Lassr's been dogging me almost the whole game, so I doubt he's going to pull back and re-evaluate at this point. I'm still not convinced he's a wolf, but the aggressive has kept him off everyone's radar to this point.

But you've been relatively off the radar as well. I may be forgetting something, but I don't think anyone's ever put a whole lot of heat in your direction to really see which way you jump.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:55 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Yeah, and I feel that I'm going to be the short one here.

Lassr's been dogging me almost the whole game, so I doubt he's going to pull back and re-evaluate at this point. I'm still not convinced he's a wolf, but the aggressive has kept him off everyone's radar to this point.

But you've been relatively off the radar as well. I may be forgetting something, but I don't think anyone's ever put a whole lot of heat in your direction to really see which way you jump.

N-1 on Day One equals no heat? What game are you playing? Remus busy calling me the wolf, essentially because I called him one (twice) = no heat. The only one who has put heat on you was Lassr and my one vote - which clearly no one followed.

What we truly haven't seen is heat on Lassr.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:57 am

That might be where the statement "I may be forgetting something..." comes in.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:57 am

I am very much prepared to vote Lassr based on my re-read from the other day.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:03 pm

I'm prepared to join you, and if you're the last wolf, call it a masterfully played game on your part. We've really got to quit getting the seers offed early.

I may have to try the bulldog strategy in a future game. Pick someone that's not a popular vote target, hound him regularly, and paint myself as not a threat to either group. I'm pretty sure I've seen it work a few times before this game.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:10 pm

Alright then....

Lassr

It's up to you if you would like to let Lassr talk first and try to convince you to vote for me. I'm not budging on this one, because my re-read before painted him as constantly wanting to get a specific person killed - with no consequences as to their role - same thing we killed Scoop for earlier. And you earlier reactions don't seem that out of whack to me. It all seemed more tongue in cheek than upset. He also had very little interaction with triggercut, although the same can be said for you in that regard.

So, Isgrimnur, if you are the wolf, well-played to you, too.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:26 pm

Like I said, I'm fine with it. The chips are down, it's likely to be this afternoon before we hear from him, and I'm on a personal time clock, what with my doctor's appointment this afternoon and surgery tomorrow. I'd like to see the scoring after the game and get the boards set up for Game 3.

Lassr