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WW - OO JL : Game Over

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Grundbegriff
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:35 pm

Unagi wrote:Remus is more than an Aquaman - he's a trusted player. Um. ? Just another body buttressing our numbers? Bullshit.
Happy Remuscide, then.
Remus has gone from 'unknown' to 'trusted'. That's the whole heart of the game.
Indeed.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Unagi » Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:48 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Are you evil, Unagi? You've been so uninvolved; however, now that you can smell blood, you're steppin' right up to try to push me over the brink.
Why? Do I look nervous?
Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:who is now a useless cover for Night Kills (if he's not evil, they won't be killing him at night until he's "proven").
And their hesitating to nightkill me is bad... why?
Because you are not cover for our specials anymore. Get it?? Why on earth don't you grasp that?
Grundbegriff wrote:Meanwhile, doing (1) is definitely throwing the vote away on a non-Doomster.
Unless of course you are simply lying. But - no, that would be unthinkable.
Grundbegriff wrote:Since Aquaman and Superman are functionally equivalent except for Superman's non-death, how is chipping away at our numbers safer than not doing so?
Here it is again with the Aquaman = Superman. Functionally, yeah - sure - neither of them has any function we can make use of - but you are clouding the issue. We are talking about a 'trusted player' (Superman, uncontested) vs. a self-claimed, untrusted, guilty-as-hell-looking Aquaman.
Grundbegriff wrote:But seriously-- why do you regard (3) as a joke, when killing me is similar to a bad outcome of an attempt at (3)? Wouldn't that logically imply that killing me is a shortcut to the same joke?
Are you listening to yourself? Stessier, please answer Grund's question for me. I'd love to hear what you have to say on this point. K? thanks.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:55 pm

Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Are you evil, Unagi? You've been so uninvolved; however, now that you can smell blood, you're steppin' right up to try to push me over the brink.
Why? Do I look nervous?
Sort of.
Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:who is now a useless cover for Night Kills (if he's not evil, they won't be killing him at night until he's "proven").
And their hesitating to nightkill me is bad... why?
Because you are not cover for our specials anymore. Get it?? Why on earth don't you grasp that?
Assuming they read my comments about Aquamen, my comments about Wonder Woman's options, and my other tactical advice, and assuming they then take my profession of Aquamanliness at face value... yes. I'd be out in such a way that I no longer provide cover for Specials.
Grundbegriff wrote:Meanwhile, doing (1) is definitely throwing the vote away on a non-Doomster.
Unless of course you are simply lying. But - no, that would be unthinkable.
No, it's quite thinkable. That's the beauty, from the standpoint of gamesmanship.
We are talking about a 'trusted player' (Superman, uncontested) vs. a self-claimed, untrusted, guilty-as-hell-looking Aquaman.
You go and trust Remuscide, Johnny. I'm sure no harm will come. ;)

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Unagi » Fri Jul 04, 2008 2:26 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Are you evil, Unagi? You've been so uninvolved; however, now that you can smell blood, you're steppin' right up to try to push me over the brink.
Why? Do I look nervous?
Sort of.
Crap. :wink:

Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:And their hesitating to nightkill me is bad... why?
Because you are not cover for our specials anymore. Get it?? Why on earth don't you grasp that?
Assuming they read my comments about Aquamen, my comments about Wonder Woman's options, and my other tactical advice, and assuming they then take my profession of Aquamanliness at face value... yes. I'd be out in such a way that I no longer provide cover for Specials.
OK, so as an Aquaman that is no longer providing cover for our Specials, aside from you charming narcissism, why are you worth keeping around?


Grundbegriff wrote:
Unag wrote:Unless of course you are simply lying. But - no, that would be unthinkable.
No, it's quite thinkable. That's the beauty, from the standpoint of gamesmanship.
Yet, your argument for moving on and just finding another person to lynch hinges on our trust of you, and frankly - if any of us trusted you (aside from Stessier), would we have taken you all the way to (N-1)?


Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:We are talking about a 'trusted player' (Superman, uncontested) vs. a self-claimed, untrusted, guilty-as-hell-looking Aquaman.
You go and trust Remuscide, Johnny. I'm sure no harm will come. ;)
Yeah, you do love to toss out that Remuscide fear don't cha?. In any case, Remus is 'trusted', you are not. There is a mountain of difference - and you keep trying to minimalize it.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Unagi » Fri Jul 04, 2008 2:28 pm

((Who can we talk to about getting this Max: 3 Embedded Quotes rule changed. It's quite annoying.))

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Fri Jul 04, 2008 2:39 pm

Unagi wrote:OK, so as an Aquaman that is no longer providing cover for our Specials, aside from you charming narcissism, why are you worth keeping around?
Each of us has his strengths at Werewolf. Mine is the blend of being strongly analytical, difficult to read, and plan-thwartingly obstreperous.

It's up to my teammates and two or three moles to determine the value of that blend in this particular game relative to the other options.

That's all. My contribution isn't essential to victory; it's conducive to victory more often than not. (See winning streak stats in Chaosraven's metapost, e.g.)
Yet, your argument for moving on and just finding another person to lynch hinges on our trust of you, and frankly - if any of us trusted you (aside from Stessier), would we have taken you all the way to (N-1)?
Nobody who plays werewolf with me should trust me in the game until I'm proven, as I've often said. That doesn't mean I'm untrustworthy; it merely means that you're not necessarily in a position to know whether I'm trustworthy, and should proceed with caution.

As for taking me to N-1, that's no big deal. I've done that to myself in at least one game-- maybe two.
Yeah, you do love to toss out that Remuscide fear don't cha?.
Only when it's applicable. Right now, three of the four "trusteds" can't see their hands before their noses.
Last edited by Grundbegriff on Fri Jul 04, 2008 2:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Fri Jul 04, 2008 2:40 pm

Unagi wrote:((Who can we talk to about getting this Max: 3 Embedded Quotes rule changed. It's quite annoying.))
It's super-easy to change that setting in the ACP, too, if they'll just take 10 seconds to do it.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Mr Bubbles » Fri Jul 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Semaj wrote:
Right now my big questionsmarks are:
Mr bubbles
Austin
Rev

Someday I'ma have to look at everyone and make a cool hip and trendy suspicion Matrix.
And your questions will have to wait a bit. Im bbq'ing right now and I thought I would have a few moments, but alas the Carne is waiting for me. Sorry for delay since I said I would post last night. Rest assured I have not disappeared just a bit preoccupied right now.
“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”
Bertrand Russell

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Remus West » Fri Jul 04, 2008 4:30 pm

Grund,
question: How do we (the JLA) win the game?
answer: By lynching the members of the Legion of Doom.

So why is it that the plan you keep trying to sell amounts to "do not try and win for the JLA"?
How can you not see this?

Stessier,
question: Why is it that lynching the silent would be more acceptable than lynching a "known" Superman in this game?
answer: Because that silent could actually be a member of the Legion of Doom while Superman can not.
How can you not see that?

Grund,
question: When did I start "acting evil" in your eyes?
answer: When I posted that I had some doubts about you and felt that you were not acting in the best interest of the JLA. It was not until I specifically named YOU as my least trusted that I became less the JLA in your eyes. What happened to your disdain for the triggercut principle? You may as well have announced you were operating by its guidelines with your attacks on me.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle » Fri Jul 04, 2008 4:40 pm

/shouts

"It's the 4th o' July folks! Let's celebrate by freeing us from Evil Grund. One more vote, that's all we need 1 more vote."

/mutters

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Fri Jul 04, 2008 4:41 pm

Remus West wrote:Grund,
question: How do we (the JLA) win the game?
answer: By lynching the members of the Legion of Doom.

So why is it that the plan you keep trying to sell amounts to "do not try and win for the JLA"?
How can you not see this?
To lynch members of the Legion of Doom, it's necessary either to discern them or to fall upon one by chance.
Grund,
question: When did I start "acting evil" in your eyes?
answer: When I posted that I had some doubts about you
You're mistaken, but frankly, I'm bored with discussions of you and the Superman issue. We'll see no action there anyhow. You know better than to think I operate by suspecting people for suspecting me. My criteria seldom have anything to do with that.

Suffice to say that I thought you were dragging the team down because you were evil. Turns out maybe that you were dragging the team down simply because you have no idea what's actually afoot.

Hence the Remuscide remarks earlier. It seems that when you're good and ineffectual, it looks the same as when you're bad and insidious. So I've learned something new about your play style and your tells. That'll be useful down the road.

My preferred combo would be good and effectual. Instead, you're (a) defending the importance of this golden opportunity to lynch a baddie, and (b) ensuring that this lynch will be used instead on a fellow goodguy whose death, unlike your own, affects our hit points.

What can I say? You can't help that you can't see that's what you're doing.
What happened to your disdain for the triggercut principle?
It's still fully operative.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Remus West » Fri Jul 04, 2008 4:59 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Grund,
question: When did I start "acting evil" in your eyes?
answer: When I posted that I had some doubts about you
You're mistaken, but frankly, I'm bored with discussions of you and the Superman issue. We'll see no action there anyhow. You know better than to think I operate by suspecting people for suspecting me. My criteria seldom have anything to do with that.
I did not even mention the Superman issue. You were calling me evil from the moment I said I did not trust you. Deny it, go ahead. You are not the only one who can post time stamps. You had no information regarding me being Superman or not at the time.

July 2, 11:55PM
Remus West wrote:Honestly I think everyone needs to go back and look at what Grundbegriff said again. He has jumped very very high up my suspicion matrix. Very high up. I'll post the details in the morning (my morning, remeber it is summer and I am a high school teacher...) when you folks have had time to read. Do not bother posting your thoughts yet though so you can know I am not mimicing yours. He has mistakes/omissions in his analysis that interest me.
July 3, 1:09AM
Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:Honestly I think everyone needs to go back and look at what Grundbegriff said again. He has jumped very very high up my suspicion matrix. Very high up. I'll post the details in the morning
Once upon a time, when you were evil, you tried very hard indeed to discredit me even though my words and actions were conspicuously beneficial to my (Good) team.

You wouldn't be doing that again, would you, Remus?
Wasted no time moving me from a position where you trusted me to where you thought I was evil. Since I did not post anything else between my stating doubts about you and your post suggesting I was evil what would you call that other than triggercutian? I had not even posted my thoughts regarding Superman at that point. Good effort.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Fri Jul 04, 2008 5:18 pm

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:Grund,
question: When did I start "acting evil" in your eyes?
answer: When I posted that I had some doubts about you
You're mistaken, but frankly, I'm bored with discussions of you and the Superman issue. We'll see no action there anyhow. You know better than to think I operate by suspecting people for suspecting me. My criteria seldom have anything to do with that.
I did not even mention the Superman issue. You were calling me evil from the moment I said I did not trust you. Deny it, go ahead. You are not the only one who can post time stamps. You had no information regarding me being Superman or not at the time.
What? No-- you don't seem to understand. I'm announcing general boredom with the discussion of you in all pertinent dimensions. I'm not alleging any connections to whatever you're obsessing over.
Wasted no time moving me from a position where you trusted me to where you thought I was evil. Since I did not post anything else between my stating doubts about you and your post suggesting I was evil what would you call that other than triggercutian? I had not even posted my thoughts regarding Superman at that point. Good effort.
I reconsidered your posting from the start of the game up to that point, and responded to the whole irrespective of what you thought about me.

I always go into these games assuming that everyone will suspect me. Why would it perturb me that you do so? And why are you-- apparently playing for the JL-- trying to wedge me into the triggercut principle's mold?

It's a Procrustean bed, Remus. My suspicion that you were evil had a lot more to do with reconsideration of some things I had told stessier than with anything in particular that you said about me. Believe it or don't-- the outworking of your psychological needs affects nothing here.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut » Fri Jul 04, 2008 7:55 pm

Mr Bubbles wrote:
Semaj wrote:
Right now my big questionsmarks are:
Mr bubbles
Austin
Rev

Someday I'ma have to look at everyone and make a cool hip and trendy suspicion Matrix.
And your questions will have to wait a bit. Im bbq'ing right now and I thought I would have a few moments, but alas the Carne is waiting for me. Sorry for delay since I said I would post last night. Rest assured I have not disappeared just a bit preoccupied right now.
Yeah, better go consult with Grund on the Villain forums and see how you should proceed.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by RevHempus71 » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:29 am

First of all, My Dad is still really sick so I don't know how often I can get on and do much. Thankfully I had a few hours to kill today and managed to get caught up on the reading.
It sucks that RL issues have caused a lot of you to suspect me. i apologise for that.

So now to the things you probably want to hear. My thoughts on players and stuff.
1. Mr Bubbles: first game with him, but his voting and posting seems evilish to me
2. Remus West: Superman? (uncontested) so for now I will trst him
3. Kraegor: I too think you are playing abnormally, suspect
4. Newcastle: Aquaman (confermed)
5. Lassr: Still think he is being very careful, according to some this is his "tell"
6. Grundbegriff: I feel like I am on a boat somewhere....hmm. suspect
7. JimDave: too absent to be bad??? probably
8. triggercut: Green Arrow
9. Austin: not to sure but leaning good
10. sectoid: a bit odd to me, not sure but somewhat suspect
11. stessier: You sir are bugging the hell out of me, can't put a finger on it exactly but highly suspect
12. tru1cy: being tru1cy, leaning good
13. Sean, Minister of KtSP: Martian Manhunter? (uncontested)
14. Unagi: leaning good
15. Scoop20906: some weird stuff coming (however significantly less than usual) from him, suspect
16. RevHempus71: thats me :mrgreen:
17. semaj: I liked your style as a badguy, Ilike your style again but from a leaning good way.

There you have it.

Trusteds:
RevHempus
Newcastle
Trigg
Remus
Sean

Leaning good:
Jim Dave
Austin
Tru1cy
Unagi
Semaj

Suspect 50/50:
MrBubbles
Lassr
Sectoid

Highly suspect:
Grund
Stess
Scoop
Kreagor

So there are my individual thoughts over all.

Now onto my vote.  Grundbegriff 
 
because i will not be tricked again like on a certain boat. I will never again be used to facillitate Remuscide...........
Sheesh...... May I please get out of the corner now???? I promise to behave........

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Remus West » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:55 am

Grundbegriff wrote:I reconsidered your posting from the start of the game up to that point, and responded to the whole irrespective of what you thought about me.
So it took you four hours to read before your first substantial post but only 14 minutes after I suggested I did not trust you to reconsider everything I had posted from the beginning of the game. :roll:
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Semaj » Sat Jul 05, 2008 2:14 am

Uhg,... reading, but it looks like Grund be Dead..
If he comes up Aquaman (Which I think he is) Im'a be irate. Because then I have to read through all his posts and the vote counts and make some calculations. And well While I'm only 13 (alcoholic) shots in (me) today, thinking isnt my strong suit (At the moment, no slams on that one :)).

Yeah I am counting 9....

Alright... CHAOS?!?! Let us know how smart/dumb we may have been.
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Some claim things they don't deserve.
Some claim to know more than they ever will.
I don't claim anything, because no one would believe the truth anyways.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle » Sat Jul 05, 2008 2:35 am

Rev - Best wishes for your family and I hope everything turns out alright. Dont even think that you are holding us back, even if you are evil or whatever. Real life comes first and your family obviously. Seriously not holding it against you in anyway. I personally appreciate the fact that you did take time to contribute, but dont feel in anyway obligated to until your family situation gets better.
America held hostage enters Day 39

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Newcastle » Sat Jul 05, 2008 2:37 am

Against Remus West(1): Grundbegriff,
Against Grundbegriff(9): Newcastle, Remus West, Sectoid, triggercut, Unagi, Austin, Lassr, Kraeggor, Revhempus71
Against Scoop20906(1): stessier
Against stessier(1): Scoop20906
Against tru1cy(1): tru1cy

No Votes Registered: JimDave, Mr Bubbles, Sean Minister of KtSP, Semaj

And we have a winner! Grund is at 9

Grund is a dead man walking.

Any last words Grund, anything at all. Any final suspect matrix in case we are wrong bout you?

Calling Chaos, your servicing is requested on aisle 3, we have a lynch that needs to proceed.
America held hostage enters Day 39

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Sat Jul 05, 2008 9:45 am

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:I reconsidered your posting from the start of the game up to that point, and responded to the whole irrespective of what you thought about me.
So it took you four hours to read before your first substantial post
Yes. I took a three hour nap in between.
but only 14 minutes after I suggested I did not trust you to reconsider everything I had posted from the beginning of the game. :roll:
No comment of yours prompted me to reconsider you. I barely registered what you were writing. I was already reconsidering you because I was revisiting my earlier explanation to stessier of your tells. And why was I doing that? Because of something Scoop said.
Any final suspect matrix in case we are wrong bout you?
No point; the use of a threat matrix requires reasoning and insight. ;)

I'm at 9. Have fun, people! Get the bad guys!


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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Remus West » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:16 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Lassr, Scoop, Austin
Just so you know, I am not entirely unteachable. Should you prove innocent I will not over-look this list. :oops: :lol:
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Austin » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:30 pm

Internet is sketchy but I have a little time and have skimmed/caught up. I guess if Grund is actually Aqauman then it's still better than running another special up the flagpole. For the record I would have held my Grund vote had I got back before he went over; I would not have retracted it.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Unagi » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:32 pm

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Lassr, Scoop, Austin
Just so you know, I am not entirely unteachable. Should you prove innocent I will not over-look this list. :oops: :lol:
Agreed.
But even if you prove innocent, I still think the 'lets just not lynch anyone today' is and always was the wrong way to play with the Superman role.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Austin » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:32 pm

The only confirmation we have on Remus right now is the lack of a counter-claim correct? <Not to diminish the weight that lends but I'm trying to get thoughts caught up from a lot of pages>

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Austin » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:34 pm

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Lassr, Scoop, Austin
Just so you know, I am not entirely unteachable. Should you prove innocent I will not over-look this list. :oops: :lol:
Is this list about people he thinks are evil? (Or you Grund if you show up before Chaos does)

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Austin » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:36 pm

Unagi wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Lassr, Scoop, Austin
Just so you know, I am not entirely unteachable. Should you prove innocent I will not over-look this list. :oops: :lol:
Agreed.
But even if you prove innocent, I still think the 'lets just not lynch anyone today' is and always was the wrong way to play with the Superman role.
I wouldn't say always. It's fairly situational. If we were in a position to make the bad guys miss and they didn't have a seer, I could certainly see where taking the miss and getting our seer an extra scan would be better than forcing out a good special or killing a good guy.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Austin » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:38 pm

So have we gotten into an MM strategy for tonight. I have an idea but if it's already been thought of or better left unspoken, well... have we discussed him at any length yet?

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:39 pm

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Lassr, Scoop, Austin
Just so you know, I am not entirely unteachable. Should you prove innocent I will not over-look this list. :oops: :lol:
Dude-- that list is only meaningful in relation to the three matrices. Sometimes, the long view is important.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:40 pm

Austin wrote:I guess if Grund is actually Aqauman then it's still better than running another special up the flagpole.
Dude, we have a Special who, when run up a flagpole, doesn't even die. Did you know that 0 is greater than negative 1?

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:41 pm

Unagi wrote:But even if you prove innocent, I still think the 'lets just not lynch anyone today' is and always was the wrong way to play with the Superman role.
What's the right way, and how does it differ mathematically, logically, or tactically from his just taking a bullet and living?

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Unagi » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:48 pm

Austin wrote:The only confirmation we have on Remus right now is the lack of a counter-claim correct? <Not to diminish the weight that lends but I'm trying to get thoughts caught up from a lot of pages>
That and/or we also can look at it like: Would Remus really feel like it would be safe to 'Fake Claim Superman' when he was contacted by MM.

Not really a role a bad-guy would fake... "Test me, go ahead - See if I can be lynched" ?

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Unagi » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:49 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:But even if you prove innocent, I still think the 'lets just not lynch anyone today' is and always was the wrong way to play with the Superman role.
What's the right way, and how does it differ mathematically, logically, or tactically from his just taking a bullet and living?
You keep asking me this.

Like I said - I think the best thing would be for Superman to be stumbled on.


Period.

OK?

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Remus West » Sat Jul 05, 2008 2:39 pm

Austin wrote:The only confirmation we have on Remus right now is the lack of a counter-claim correct? <Not to diminish the weight that lends but I'm trying to get thoughts caught up from a lot of pages>
Yes. The only other way to test me is to lynch me. As I said before though, that is a bad move. It wastes one of our attempts at finding the Bad Guys.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Sat Jul 05, 2008 3:48 pm

Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:What's the right way, and how does it differ mathematically, logically, or tactically from his just taking a bullet and living?
You keep asking me this.

Like I said - I think the best thing would be for Superman to be stumbled on.

Period.

OK?
And exactly how would the effect of that on the numbers be different from, say, using Superman deliberately?

The difference you name is entirely aesthetic. Style points don't win the game.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Sat Jul 05, 2008 3:49 pm

Remus West wrote:As I said before though, that is a bad move. It wastes one of our attempts at finding the Bad Guys.
Sort of like killing me.... ;)

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Remus West » Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:12 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:As I said before though, that is a bad move. It wastes one of our attempts at finding the Bad Guys.
Sort of like killing me.... ;)
Lynching you is a deliberate attempt at finding a bad guy. It may or may not prove to be a futile attempt but it is an attempt taken. Purposely lynching Superman is an attempt thrown in the garbage.
Wanye Gretzky wrote:You miss 100% of the shots you do not take
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Unagi » Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:20 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Unagi wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:What's the right way, and how does it differ mathematically, logically, or tactically from his just taking a bullet and living?
You keep asking me this.

Like I said - I think the best thing would be for Superman to be stumbled on.

Period.

OK?
And exactly how would the effect of that on the numbers be different from, say, using Superman deliberately?

The difference you name is entirely aesthetic. Style points don't win the game.
Skipping a chance to kill a Bad Guy doesn't win the game either.

Earlier you said that 0 is better than -1 .... You keep skipping +1.

If we truly stumbled on Superman, the difference would be that we actually all (minus any evil-doers) did it thinking that player was Evil, and instead of 'missing' and losing someone (-1) - we simply Missed and didn't lose anyone (0 , woot!)...

If we use him simply to skip our turn - that just seems absurd... Presumably, if they didn't kill Superman overnight - we could, lynch him 'again' the next day, and again, and again. What are the circumstances under which you feel the good guys should stop lynching Superman and start taking risks? Do we wait for Wonder Woman to tell us she has found a Doomer? Do the Doomers already know who Wonder Woman is? Will she be faked tomorrow by a Doomer?

Even if we had stumbled on Superman, I don't look at it as a particularly positive thing (we still didn't do the ONLY thing we are trying to do, lynch the Evil team). Yes, there would be some data generated from the votes - that would be the one major difference, and sometimes that data isn't entirely aesthetic.

Yes - Each and every day we vote we are risking that we're actually just lowering our own numbers, and not actually fighting evil...
However - Each day we say "We Pass, let's just go to night..." we are absolutely guaranteed to not actually fight evil.

I think it's as simple as that.

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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by triggercut » Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:38 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:As I said before though, that is a bad move. It wastes one of our attempts at finding the Bad Guys.
Sort of like killing me.... ;)
This is why you were voted to be lynched. The illogic of that statement is patently obvious, yet you continue to float such statements as being a good play for the League.

I actually worked out the statistical side of things, and while it skews things because the choices here aren't random, the math basically works out such that the only time the village should forego one of their chances to lynch is if doing so gives them a better than 77% chance (assuming 6 total chances) of hitting a badguy with the next pull. That percentage requirement goes up to 100% very quickly each time you remove a turn from the equation.
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Re: WW - OO Justice League : Monday Voting

Post by Grundbegriff » Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:38 pm

Remus West wrote:
Wanye Gretzky wrote:You miss 100% of the shots you do not take
You're no Wayne Gretzky. ;)

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