The Viral Economy

[Zarathud]

The Executive Order should be to McConnell to pass a damn law. Incompetence.

[Remus West]

The Executive Order should be to McConnell to pass a damn law. Incompetence.

I disagree with that assessment. McConnell is not even slightly incompetent. He has achieved the vast majority of his goals. His destruction of the democratic process in doing so was simply icing on the cake for him and his cronies. He is a very competent evil man.

[malchior]

This is a stick up job on our democracy. Don't stop us from usurping your power and breaking the law, or else. This is a logical extension to the GOP practice of holding the nation's economy hostage during every budget discussion.

[Tao]

I absolutely believe the GOP just lobbed Trump a nice slow pitch, by hamstringing negotiations, and he knocked it out of the park. I also firmly believe this was not Trumps idea but the machinations of others. Trump now gets to shout from the top of mount Twitter that he has the backs of the American people. He might as well be standing on an apple crate in Tammany Hall throwing money to the people. "The terrible Democrats wanted your family to starve, even the Republicans don't care, lousy politicians one and all, but Boss Trump has you covered. $400 unemployment and no TAXES!!". Forget the shortsightedness of the whole affair, or that the money has to come from somewhere or that i't a tax loan not a real tax break and the bill will come due next year. This is how Trump has done business for years and gone bankrupt so many times, money isn't real, it''s all just paperwork (taxes, loans, shelters, investments) you push around from one pile to another, like a massive shell game, as long as you keep the cups moving fast enough no one can keep their eye on the ball. His base is going to completely eat this up and he once again found a message that I believe will sway many undecideds. I get that there are many people in the country that are in dire economic straights but this is wrong on so many levels. The icing on Trump's cake is that the next course of action for Congress should be to immediately fight this in court. Of course the Republicans will mumble under their breath about how uneasy this makes them feel but will ultimately sit on their hands and the optics will be that Democrats are suing Trump to stop him from helping Americans. This was a win/win for Trump and his Cabal. I truly believe we are at a tipping point in US history.

[RunningMn9]

When has the Executive Branch ever been able to set tax policy? It doesn't matter in the slightest whether or not this helps anyone, it's blatantly unconstitutional. The executive has no authority to set taxation rates (payroll or otherwise).

[Holman]

I absolutely believe the GOP just lobbed Trump a nice slow pitch, by hamstringing negotiations, and he knocked it out of the park. I also firmly believe this was not Trumps idea but the machinations of others. Trump now gets to shout from the top of mount Twitter that he has the backs of the American people. He might as well be standing on an apple crate in Tammany Hall throwing money to the people. "The terrible Democrats wanted your family to starve, even the Republicans don't care, lousy politicians one and all, but Boss Trump has you covered. $400 unemployment and no TAXES!!". Forget the shortsightedness of the whole affair, or that the money has to come from somewhere or that i't a tax loan not a real tax break and the bill will come due next year. This is how Trump has done business for years and gone bankrupt so many times, money isn't real, it''s all just paperwork (taxes, loans, shelters, investments) you push around from one pile to another, like a massive shell game, as long as you keep the cups moving fast enough no one can keep their eye on the ball. His base is going to completely eat this up and he once again found a message that I believe will sway many undecideds. I get that there are many people in the country that are in dire economic straights but this is wrong on so many levels. The icing on Trump's cake is that the next course of action for Congress should be to immediately fight this in court. Of course the Republicans will mumble under their breath about how uneasy this makes them feel but will ultimately sit on their hands and the optics will be that Democrats are suing Trump to stop him from helping Americans. This was a win/win for Trump and his Cabal. I truly believe we are at a tipping point in US history.

Alternately, Trump just handed Democrats the fact that he has zeroed out funding for Social Security and Medicare.

That's a lot easier to put in an ad, especially when the EO actually cuts unemployment benefits to $zero (not just$400) if states can't chip in their 25%, which they can't.

[Kraken]

When has the Executive Branch ever been able to set tax policy? It doesn't matter in the slightest whether or not this helps anyone, it's blatantly unconstitutional. The executive has no authority to set taxation rates (payroll or otherwise).

And yet, the Democrats are now in the position of suing to block people's unemployment bonus. The optics are going to be terrible.

[Zarathud]

Trump is taking advantage of the American people’s misunderstanding of civics. Trump can’t executive order tax law and the budget.

McConnell is blocking a bill. McConnell can’t and won’t pass a bill to preserve Republican votes. That’s the drum to beat — even if it means proposing a bill that includes Trump’s EOs. Call it a big win and put a price tag. Publicly say Trump caved to House pressure. Make McConnell vote then both of them will fight each other.

[malchior]

It never hurts to point out that Mitch McConnell is evil.

[LawBeefaroni]

Kodak saga continues:

Kodak Insider Makes Well-Timed Stock Gift of $116 Million to Religious Charity He Started

Eastman Kodak Co.’s wild stock-market ride produced what might be the biggest contribution on record to a religious nonprofit, the product of a well-timed gift by Kodak board member George Karfunkel.

In a securities filing last week, Mr. Karfunkel and his wife, Renee Karfunkel, said they donated 3 million of their 6.3 million Kodak shares to Congregation Chemdas Yisroel in Brooklyn, N.Y.

Now that the loan may not go through, protecting the gains from a clawback makes sense.

[Paingod]

It never hurts to point out that Mitch McConnell is evil.

Lawful Evil is probably the most insidious form of evil. It goes beyond simple destruction and greed and becomes a deep, personal, planned evil.

CE might run amok and kill a village, but it takes LE to corrupt an entire kingdom from the top down.

[Blackhawk]

It never hurts to point out that Mitch McConnell is evil.

Lawful Evil is probably the most insidious form of evil. It goes beyond simple destruction and greed and becomes a deep, personal, planned evil.

CE might run amok and kill a village, but it takes LE to corrupt an entire kingdom from the top down.

Lawful Evil does evil from within the law, twisting it to fit its needs. That's what makes it so tough to counter - f you wait too long, the law is on evil's side.

There could be a side note here that when the law is corrupted, chaotic good (such as civil disobedience) is the counter.

[Isgrimnur]

It's going to keep getting worse till the whole economic system comes down. Drumph goosed the stock market abd the corps with literally TONS of money. But as you said money squandered at the top does NOT create demand. Think things (and protests) are bad now? Wait till the second wave of pandemic hits when states get serious about opening back up, and the morotorium on evictions ends writ large and 20% (or more) of ppl no longer has a place to live. This is how revolutions happen.

Thoughts?

[Kraken]

It's going to keep getting worse till the whole economic system comes down. Drumph goosed the stock market abd the corps with literally TONS of money. But as you said money squandered at the top does NOT create demand. Think things (and protests) are bad now? Wait till the second wave of pandemic hits when states get serious about opening back up, and the morotorium on evictions ends writ large and 20% (or more) of ppl no longer has a place to live. This is how revolutions happen.

Thoughts?

It's not as easy to wave off Drazzil alarmism in August as it was in June.

Republicans won't negotiate to bolster the working class and small businesses as long as the stock markets continue to defy gravity. By the time they do fall, it might be too late to reverse the damage that's occurring now. If an election weren't imminent they would have no interest whatsoever in the little people, but they do need to seem to care for the next few months.

[Holman]

It's going to keep getting worse till the whole economic system comes down. Drumph goosed the stock market abd the corps with literally TONS of money. But as you said money squandered at the top does NOT create demand. Think things (and protests) are bad now? Wait till the second wave of pandemic hits when states get serious about opening back up, and the morotorium on evictions ends writ large and 20% (or more) of ppl no longer has a place to live. This is how revolutions happen.

Thoughts?

We were 0.5% revolutionary when he posted that, and we're maybe 1% revolutionary now. That is not how revolutions happen.

[Isgrimnur]

It's going to keep getting worse till the whole economic system comes down. Drumph goosed the stock market abd the corps with literally TONS of money. But as you said money squandered at the top does NOT create demand. Think things (and protests) are bad now? Wait till the second wave of pandemic hits when states get serious about opening back up, and the morotorium on evictions ends writ large and 20% (or more) of ppl no longer has a place to live. This is how revolutions happen.

Thoughts?

We were 0.5% revolutionary when he posted that, and we're maybe 1% revolutionary now. That is not how revolutions happen.

You have to get to 3.5% somehow.

[Kraken]

It's going to keep getting worse till the whole economic system comes down. Drumph goosed the stock market abd the corps with literally TONS of money. But as you said money squandered at the top does NOT create demand. Think things (and protests) are bad now? Wait till the second wave of pandemic hits when states get serious about opening back up, and the morotorium on evictions ends writ large and 20% (or more) of ppl no longer has a place to live. This is how revolutions happen.

Thoughts?

We were 0.5% revolutionary when he posted that, and we're maybe 1% revolutionary now. That is not how revolutions happen.

You have to get to 3.5% somehow.

Yup, ask again in October.

[Holman]

It's going to keep getting worse till the whole economic system comes down. Drumph goosed the stock market abd the corps with literally TONS of money. But as you said money squandered at the top does NOT create demand. Think things (and protests) are bad now? Wait till the second wave of pandemic hits when states get serious about opening back up, and the morotorium on evictions ends writ large and 20% (or more) of ppl no longer has a place to live. This is how revolutions happen.

Thoughts?

We were 0.5% revolutionary when he posted that, and we're maybe 1% revolutionary now. That is not how revolutions happen.

You have to get to 3.5% somehow.

I hold to a distinction between "change" and "revolution."

[gbasden]

I hold to a distinction between "change" and "revolution."

If Trump steals the election, there might not be much of one.

[Blackhawk]

It's not as easy to wave off Drazzil alarmism in August as it was in June.

For the past several years we've been in a cycle. Someone makes some absurd, over-the-top prediction about what the government will do and we all roll our eyes and dismiss it. A few months later the government exceeds that prediction.

Then someone makes a new, more absurd prediction and it begins again.

Alarmism has become a new form of understatement.

[LawBeefaroni]

I give you Fed chair Jerome Powell:

[malchior]

It's not as easy to wave off Drazzil alarmism in August as it was in June.

For the past several years we've been in a cycle. Someone makes some absurd, over-the-top prediction about what the government will do and we all roll our eyes and dismiss it. A few months later the government exceeds that prediction.

Then someone makes a new, more absurd prediction and it begins again.

Alarmism has become a new form of understatement.

Some people have endured this for 15-20 years. I posted an article recently about predictions from 2007 that have all come true but waved off as alarmist at the time. And I just came across a reference to a *2001* article in this book - 'Let them Eat Tweets: How the Right Rules in an Age of Extreme Inequality'.

Our interest in the evolution of the GOP started with an article on the 2001 Bush tax cuts, which gave roughly 40 percent of their benefits to the richest 1 percent. In that article, we argued that while the cuts received surface support in polls, the contents of the new law were sharply at odds with what the majority of voters thought the nation's budget priorities should be. As the biggest policy shift of the the last two decades, the tax cuts were strong evidence of declining responsiveness to voters.

Some of our fellow political scientists thought that article was alarmist. If Republicans were really out of step with voters, they reasoned, the party would eventually pay the price. But they haven't paid the price, and they keep moving further to the right. Again and again, what seemed like the peak of Republican radicalism proved to be just a base camp, as the party shifted its focus toward a narrower and narrower slice at the top. The tax cuts of 2017 -- passed after a presidential campaign in which the Republican standard-bearer suggested he would turn the GOP into a "worker's party" -- delivered more than 80 percent of their largesse to the top 1 percent. Looking back, we did make at least one error. We weren't worried enough.

It seems that people often seek to desperately try to seek solace in the hope that the center will hold when evidence for so long shows it won't and hasn't in the past. We are years past the tipping point and people want to think that Trump getting bounced out of office will change things. Evidence suggests strongly otherwise.

[LawBeefaroni]

It seems that people often seek to desperately try to seek solace in the hope that the center will hold when evidence for so long shows it won't and hasn't in the past. We are years past the tipping point and people want to think that Trump getting bounced out of office will change things. Evidence suggests strongly otherwise.

It's normalcy bias. It is extremely powerful.

Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects. The normalcy bias causes many people to not adequately prepare for natural disasters, pandemics, and calamities caused by human error. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.

[Smoove_B]

Next up is housing:

Federal Housing Administration mortgages -- the affordable path to homeownership for many first-time buyers, minorities and low-income Americans -- now have the highest delinquency rate in at least four decades.

The share of late FHA loans rose to almost 16% in the second quarter, up from about 9.7% in the previous three months and the highest level in records dating back to 1979, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Monday. The delinquency rate for conventional loans, by comparison, was 6.7%.

Millions of Americans stopped paying their mortgages after losing jobs in the coronavirus crisis. Those on the lower end of the income scale are most likely to have FHA loans, which allow borrowers with shaky credit to buy homes with small down payments.

For now, most of them are protected from foreclosure by the federal forbearance program, in which borrowers with pandemic-related hardships can delay payments for as much as a year without penalty. As of Aug. 9, about 3.6 million homeowners were in forbearance, representing 7.2% of loans, the MBA said in a separate report. The share has decreased for nine straight weeks.

Of note:

New Jersey had the highest FHA delinquency rate, at 20%. The state also had the biggest increase in the overall late-payment rate, jumping to 11% in the second quarter from 4.7%. Following were Nevada, New York, Florida and Hawaii -- all states with a high proportion of leisure and hospitality jobs that were especially hard-hit by the pandemic, the MBA said.

[malchior]

A friend of a friend posted a quote that I found depressing.

The current state of American capitalism is 'large and prosperous state can't contain its wildfires caused by anthropogenic climate change because the underpaid prison labor they use to fight wildfires is sick from an out-of-control pandemic'

California relies on crews drawn from minimum security prisoners to act as hand crews

Fewer such prisoners already depleted their ranks

COVID has halved the the number

(Enough posted about the prison camp angle in the Political Randomness thread but this is a level up thinking about the sociopathic forces that have made parts of our nation a hellscape)

[Smoove_B]

Can't say I thought about this in such detail, but it's likely an important observation:

These workers shopped at small businesses like Silva’s shoe repair shop: dry cleaners, gyms, food carts, florists, and pharmacies. But they were also among the most vital customers and source of revenue for a slew of larger, less obvious businesses — food delivery companies like Grubhub and Uber Eats, and companies like Xerox, the maker of printing supplies. Amid Covid-19, workwear destinations Brooks Brothers and J.Crew have filed for bankruptcy protection, with Brooks Brothers selling itself last month. And, on its quarterly earnings call in late July, Starbucks attributed the loss of some $2 billion year on year to deserted urban office corridors. Starting off their day at home, remote workers are simply not queueing up in the same numbers for a morning venti latte.

...

But now, suggests MIT economist David Autor in a paper last month, the office economy is under threat. The pandemic, he and his co-author, Elisabeth Reynolds, a lecturer at MIT, write, has made a permanent shift to remote work for a large part of the office workforce a near certainty. And with that, tens of thousands of workers in the office support economy — those who “feed, transport, clothe, entertain, and shelter people when they are not in their own homes” — will lose their jobs.

[LawBeefaroni]

I think about it every day I drive to work in < 50% of normal traffic. And when I pass all the closed restaurants, shops, etc. I'd probably also think of it if I went downtown, but we don't go to Ravenholm anymore.

[LordMortis]

Can't say I thought about this in such detail, but it's likely an important observation:

These workers shopped at small businesses like Silva’s shoe repair shop: dry cleaners, gyms, food carts, florists, and pharmacies. But they were also among the most vital customers and source of revenue for a slew of larger, less obvious businesses — food delivery companies like Grubhub and Uber Eats, and companies like Xerox, the maker of printing supplies. Amid Covid-19, workwear destinations Brooks Brothers and J.Crew have filed for bankruptcy protection, with Brooks Brothers selling itself last month. And, on its quarterly earnings call in late July, Starbucks attributed the loss of some $2 billion year on year to deserted urban office corridors. Starting off their day at home, remote workers are simply not queueing up in the same numbers for a morning venti latte.

...

But now, suggests MIT economist David Autor in a paper last month, the office economy is under threat. The pandemic, he and his co-author, Elisabeth Reynolds, a lecturer at MIT, write, has made a permanent shift to remote work for a large part of the office workforce a near certainty. And with that, tens of thousands of workers in the office support economy — those who “feed, transport, clothe, entertain, and shelter people when they are not in their own homes” — will lose their jobs.

I have. And it's not just office worker the entire landscape of employment has changed for six months. It became pretty apparent when TP dried up nationally in a day and it was because offices and commercial locations use different TP than we use at home. That TP got extended to everything. No one's driving, so no gas is selling and people aren't buying the convenience items at gas stations or their morning coffee, but they are buying Folgers at home and making their own sandwiches for lunch. They're not wearing work clothes but they are buying comfy clothes to walk the neighborhood in. No hotels but how about camping? I don't care how "agile" technology is, this is a shift that will have influence across the board that will be felt for a long time to come. Assuming we come out of this on the other side looking to "return to normal", there will be a long term shift to accommodating WFH and reduction of office facilities, with old infrastructures no longer supportable and new infrastructures in need of being established. Office supply use will drop off the map but people trying to claim a home office on their taxes will go through the roof against tax collection. Utilities ought to crash but it's hard to say when that will happen. Right now offices are still open and full sized, though mostly empty.

I mistakenly bought Cisco thinking this was the wave about to rise and would have bought comcast if I had the money. I, instead, should have bought Zoom because all we seem to know/value is the software we use. I'm still holding my Cisco, even if others aren't buying the company is going to be at the center of destruction and rebuild.

[Paingod]

I've mentioned it before, but all of this economic shrinking is likely good for climate change. Less consumerism, less travel, less energy used.

These sorts of changes were going to take decades to enact and they instead happened in one year. The key is whether or not we can keep the benefits.

I feel for those who are out of work and don't want them to suffer, but I also want a habitable world left over for my children and grandchildren to live on. We passed sustainability a while back and any changes to bring us back were and are going to sting.

[Holman]

Assuming that things don't go back to the way they were (juicing climate collapse as before), we'll need something radical like the Works Progress Administration to supply jobs to service workers tossed out by the realigned economy.

It won't have to be all infrastructure or public works (although those are needed). An army of trained medical/educational/socialwork assistants would dovetail well with the ambition of reimagining the police.

[LawBeefaroni]

Less consumerism

The piles of boxes Amazon and Blue Apron and Wayfair and countless other brands lining my alley every morning beg to differ.

We're trading one form of waste waste for another. People may not drive to work but they get everything driven to them.




We're taking a long hard look at our neighborhood and looking to re envision how it might work for a future state of 50% or more working from home plus all the gig workers. Lots of local business are hurting but there's a lot of will to support them.

[LawBeefaroni]

Watching Paulsen and Mnuchin testifying on Capitol Hill.

Getting the feeling that round 2 of PPP/Stimulus is inevitable.

[malchior]

Watching Paulsen and Mnuchin testifying on Capitol Hill.

Getting the feeling that round 2 of PPP/Stimulus is inevitable.

Watching this too. I agree but they'll get around to it...eventually. There way more important things than the economy and well-being of the people of the United States to worry about.

[LawBeefaroni]

Watching Paulsen and Mnuchin testifying on Capitol Hill.

Getting the feeling that round 2 of PPP/Stimulus is inevitable.

Watching this too. I agree but they'll get around to it...eventually. There way more important things than the economy and well-being of the people of the United States to worry about.

I mean I'm getting the feeling that it is inevitable that they will drop money not that stimulus is the top priority.

It's an easy patch for a hard fix.

[malchior]

Watching Paulsen and Mnuchin testifying on Capitol Hill.

Getting the feeling that round 2 of PPP/Stimulus is inevitable.

Watching this too. I agree but they'll get around to it...eventually. There way more important things than the economy and well-being of the people of the United States to worry about.

I mean I'm getting the feeling that it is inevitable that they will drop money not that stimulus is the top priority.

It's an easy patch for a hard fix.

Right, I more am just incredibly bitter that they are snapping to push through a Supreme Court justice while people are going hungry. And it is probably them setting up another opportunity to loot the future.

[LawBeefaroni]

Watching Paulsen and Mnuchin testifying on Capitol Hill.

Getting the feeling that round 2 of PPP/Stimulus is inevitable.

Watching this too. I agree but they'll get around to it...eventually. There way more important things than the economy and well-being of the people of the United States to worry about.

I mean I'm getting the feeling that it is inevitable that they will drop money not that stimulus is the top priority.

It's an easy patch for a hard fix.

Right, I more am just incredibly bitter that they are snapping to push through a Supreme Court justice while people are going hungry. And it is probably them setting up another opportunity to loot the future.

The stock market last week was a wake up call for the GO "winning" P. They'll send out some checks to keep the illusion going.

[LordMortis]

The stock market last week was a wake up call for the GO "winning" P. They'll send out some checks to keep the illusion going.

It's still needed. How much you want to bet whatever the next plan is, it'll be just as ill conceived as the Stimulus Check, CARES, and Payroll tax deferment? Trump and his Senate will have increased the national debt by more than 8 years of Obama at 8 Trillion dollars before two trillion and counting for COVID relief. All the while "cutting costs" at the federal level. Hmmm.... Two trillion for Covid relief, that's, what about $6,500 for every man, woman, and child in the US? I know a lot of unemployment check increases when out. Not that many.

It's needed. We've failed ourselves and our safety net has long since been on fire to fuel the furnaces of private industry and investment banking.

I checked my money market account since pulling my retirement from the market. This is the least risk most conservative investment with no upside when things are going well, in about 45 days has lost .25% of my investment before management fees. And there is no option to pull my money and say put in under a mattress and stop managing it.

My problems ain't got nothing on someone who's been out of work since March. Relief is needed, even at the cost of future pain. I have no faith Trump or this Congress have any more inkling of how to provide that relief than than they did in April.

[LawBeefaroni]

Sure it's needed. By some. The some don't call the shots.

So they'll get whatever is politically expedient if they get anything. And like like it.

[Alefroth]

Maybe they can send the check out with everyone's ballot.

[Kraken]

Sure it's needed. By some. The some don't call the shots.

So they'll get whatever is politically expedient if they get anything. And like like it.

In our "K" shaped recovery, those on the upper leg only care about the lower leg when their woes affect the upper leg's investments. trump has made the stock indexes the measure of his economy, and now that they're wobbling he'll back just enough stimulus to shore them back up. Plus, paying off voters is always good for incumbents. Something will likely pass if the Senate can distract itself from the SCOTUS pick long enough.