Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:04 pmBut I'm honestly not hopeful that Americans want more public health right now.
Of course not, they're totalitarians looking to permanently disenfranchise their rights. Plus everyone knows better than them anyway. Even some of justices of the Supreme Court has shown they know how to maintain public health better than the experts.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:04 pm But I'm honestly not hopeful that Americans want more public health right now.
I mean, we haven't wanted it, in aggregate, for a very long time. As shown by our country's complete inability to get behind public health insurance for those under 65. After the pandemic, I'm not sure that Americans want any sort of health right now.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hepcat »

hepcat wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:15 pm Got my first pfizer shot today thanks to Zarathud’s wife sending me some tips on how to get it done in Chicago.

But now I’m wondering if it was necessary because Ted Nugent just cracked this whole thing wide open by pointing out we survived COVID 1 through 18 just fine.
I'm no expert, but the symptoms make it sound like Nugent may have Covid 7 or perhaps 12?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Things like the CDC mandating eviction bans and loan/rent relief continue to blur the line between public health and politics. The problem is that politicians have hijacked public health.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Independent
Musician Ted Nugent has tested positive for coronavirus months after he said that the virus was “not a real pandemic”.
...
On Monday (19 April), Nugent revealed on Facebook Live that he had caught Covid-19, admitting that “everybody” told him that he shouldn’t announce his diagnosis.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Crocodile tear.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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May he suffer *just enough* to learn that the pandemic is real.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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One of the security guards at my High School was The Nuge's cousin. We thought it was all bullshit until Deadly Tedly showed up in his zebra striped Bronco and basically did a Pope Wave Parade around the Senior parking lot.

It was cringe AF even way back then.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

WaPo

Great piece where an epidemiologist looks back at lessons learned during the pandemic and puts them in context. This is always a valuable exercise if you can be truly honest about your own performance.
Like many epidemiologists, I have for the last 15 months been intensely focused on covid-19. One of the most surprising aspects of this work has been the constant, often aggressive, criticism directed at my field — from insinuations that epidemiologists aren’t smart enough to grasp key issues (compared with, say, economists) to drive-by attacks on Twitter suggesting we are somehow profiting from or delighted by covid-related restrictions.

My research focuses on methods for doing epidemiology: how it works, why it sometimes doesn’t, and how best to use evidence to make reliable public health decisions. I’m very interested in understanding what we got wrong about covid and why, and I would be among the first to admit that we didn’t get everything right. At the same time, the caricature of the field presented by its most vociferous critics is unrecognizable to me, so it’s worth attempting some kind of accounting of how we’ve done.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I've been following her since the pandemic started - she's a trusted voice and a great communicator.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

A stark reminder of what we're up against as the NYT turns a MMWR report into a much easier to read narrative:
An unvaccinated health care worker set off a Covid-19 outbreak at a nursing home in Kentucky where the vast majority of residents had been vaccinated, leading to dozens of infections, including 22 cases among residents and employees who were already fully vaccinated, a new study reported Wednesday.

Most of those who were infected with the coronavirus despite being vaccinated did not develop symptoms or require hospitalization, but one vaccinated individual, who was a resident of the nursing home, died, according to the study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Altogether, 26 facility residents were infected, including 18 who had been vaccinated, and 20 health care personnel were infected, including four who had been vaccinated. Two unvaccinated residents also died.
Without vaccinations this likely would have been much worse, but people are still going to die if we allow the virus to spread unchecked. At this point, I'm expecting the usual suspects in the media to offer their ghoulish commentary on how car accidents or heart attacks kill more people, so this is NBD and controlling Americans through mask wearing, vaccination and business interruption is tyranny.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

...and in global news, India is in trouble:
India has shattered a global record of daily coronavirus cases, reporting a grim 314,835 new infections in the last 24 hours.

The healthcare system in the world's second most populous nation is already buckling under severe demand in the pandemic - and now major hospitals say they are running critically short of beds and oxygen.

...

More than 15.9 million people have tested positive for COVID-19 in India, which puts the country of 1.4 billion people second only to the United States.
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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Are there any long-term forecasts starting to emerge - say strategies assuming 30% hesitancy holds up, etc. I think we've got to start talking long-term realistic where this keeps circulating indefinitely, right?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:19 am Are there any long-term forecasts starting to emerge - say strategies assuming 30% hesitancy holds up, etc. I think we've got to start talking long-term realistic where this keeps circulating indefinitely, right?
I'm watching, but I think the general (broad) consensus is that for the next ~2 years we can expect endemic levels of COVID domestically and globally, yes. Part of that is because we're not vaccinating people under the age of 16. That will change later this year when we're only leaving 0-11 year olds unvaccinated. After that and after global vaccination efforts peak (2023? 2024?), it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. Many are convinced we'll need annual shots (like influenza), but I don't think anyone really knows for sure.

Part of the issue is the emerging variants. It's also why we have record number of people vaccinated in the U.S. but parts are seeing increases and cases an hospitalizations. All of the models we have are based on data from the last ~12 months. The models that predicted everything from last year and last summer aren't going to be useful in trying to predict how the new variants spread (domestically and globally). I think those new, updated models are likely more important (right now) than trying to guess how we're looking in December of 2021 or April of 2022.

Just based on the variants, I'm fully expecting boosters at this point; it seems like the most likely conclusion.

Add in human behavior (choices to vaccinate, choices to wear masks) and I genuinely don't know how anyone can make firm statements about safety or risk, much less provide solid behavioral recommendations - outside of looking at the current levels of circulating virus in any given area (cases per 100,000).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Hey, Smoove - When can we stop wearing masks outdoors all the time? This NYT piece this morning suggests that masks outdoors are not necessary, especially when you're not standing shoulder to shoulder and not in a crowd.

I ask, because as the weather gets warmer and vaccinations are up, wearing a mask outdoors seems increasingly stupid.

I spent most of the pandemic running indoors on a treadmill, but the combo of the weather getting nice and my treadmill getting borked has led me to be running outside pretty much every day for the past few weeks. I don't wear a mask when I run, but I always give others a wide berth when passing. Still, I get dirty looks on every run from people that are walking outside, by themselves, with a mask on. I don't understand why they're wearing a mask outside, but that's their choice. It would be great if they understood how unlikely outdoor transmission is when I pass by them. Instead, they look at me like I'm a likely to give them the plague.

I was also at one of my son's soccer games this past weekend. It was mid-day, very sunny, and in the low 80s. Only two spectators were allowed per person, and masks were mandatory. There was so much space around these fields and so many places to stand that people were moving off into their own areas and removing their masks to get some relief. But the mandate was the mandate, and so some poor guy had the unenviable job of walking around to every one of those people and telling them they needed to wear their mask. Early on, I was standing in an area all by myself - no one within at least 25 feet of me - and I was told I needed to mask up. I did, and didn't remove the mask again because I certainly didn't want to make the mask enforcer's job any harder, but it was miserable.

So, can we start easing up on the wearing of masks outside? What's the verdict?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:03 am So, can we start easing up on the wearing of masks outside? What's the verdict?
To me, this is seemingly turning into a "I'm pregnant but I really want a beer. Is that ok?" scenario. In short, the dirty secret among researchers and public health professionals is that we really don't know what the safe level of alcohol consumption is for a pregnant woman. Not only are there tons of variables, but we're clearly not going to start experimenting on pregnant women to figure out how much is too much. So we default to "if you're pregnant or thinking of becoming pregnant, you should not be drinking alcohol" message because it's much easier to share.

With the outdoor mask question, I think it's turning into the same. There are likely many situations right now where it's low-risk to skip the mask outside - all based on your activity, the location, number of people around you, etc...

However, in terms of making a practical recommendation, here's where we can end up confusing people and having frustrated masses declaring we have no idea what we're talking about.

So I think it's important for us to say "If you're outside, wear a mask" as the core message. However, if we can offer up pieces like this with opinions and observations, then I think that's a good idea.

For me? I'm in a really low-density population area (where I reside). If I'm going to go for a walk with my dog or a bike ride (I really need to go for a bike ride), I'm not wearing my mask. However, it's something I have clipped to my backpack strap and I can slap on at a moment's notice if the immediate situation changes. When I go to get takeout food at a local strip mall, I'm absolutely wearing a mask from the moment I exit my car, the entire length of my walk to the store, and then back again. I just picked up a curbside food order and it was 100% outside. I work my mask the entire time because I knew I was going to have a short interaction with the worker loading my vehicle and random people walking through the parking lot.

So while there are likely more scenarios now where going maskless outdoors makes sense, I would be really comfortable with knowing the variables that change that equation and be prepared to make an adjustment. I would really want to avoid a situation where it seems like we're messaging that it's ok to be in crowds, outdoors without a mask right now. I don't think we have really good data suggesting what the current risks are, so as we usually do, better to default to an abundance of caution (and get pilloried for it later).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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That's helpful, as usual, Smoove. Does your calculus change at all if you are fully vaccinated, or is that another scenario where it muddles the messaging (because those who see you of course don't know your vaccination status)?

I've been running outdoors the whole time, with a double-layer gaiter around my neck that gets pulled up anytime I can't give someone a very wide (12 ft+) berth. I've been tempted to stop that, as realistically the risk seems extremely low from a fleeting pass at even 6 ft, but I do worry about the message I'd be sending.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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That all makes sense, Smoove, and seems to align with the "2 our of 3" rule the NYT piece was suggesting (if you're outdoors, no need to wear a mask unless you can't keep 6 feet of distance).
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:33 am That's helpful, as usual, Smoove. Does your calculus change at all if you are fully vaccinated, or is that another scenario where it muddles the messaging (because those who see you of course don't know your vaccination status)?

I've been running outdoors the whole time, with a double-layer gaiter around my neck that gets pulled up anytime I can't give someone a very wide (12 ft+) berth. I've been tempted to stop that, as realistically the risk seems extremely low from a fleeting pass at even 6 ft, but I do worry about the message I'd be sending.
Zaxxon, I don't get the messaging you're worried about. If there is consensus that outdoor transmission is unlikely unless you are in a crowded area, why do we want to wear masks unnecessarily and message that that's not the case?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:46 am Zaxxon, I don't get the messaging you're worried about. If there is consensus that outdoor transmission is unlikely unless you are in a crowded area, why do we want to wear masks unnecessarily and message that that's not the case?
I'm not necessarily saying that I think there's a messaging problem, but I'm sensitive to what Smoove described above--if the public health experts are not sure, and the party line is therefore that it's still best to wear them, I can see how my not doing so could be construed as problematic.

To be clear, based on everything I've seen reported I absolutely do not believe that me running without a mask (in the places where I run, where distancing is generally super-easy) is putting anyone at any sort of risk, myself included.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:46 am Zaxxon, I don't get the messaging you're worried about. If there is consensus that outdoor transmission is unlikely unless you are in a crowded area, why do we want to wear masks unnecessarily and message that that's not the case?
I struggle with the same question, however, I see it as if I don't wear a mask around others outside, some other idiot is going to decide to not wear a mask outside at all... "around others" not entering into the conversation.

Personally, I think we are going WAY overboard on risk measures at this time as individuals who have been vaccinated. But that doesn't mean I'm going to stop wearing a mask around other folks... if for nothing else, peer pressure is a real thing and I'm going to be a good citizen.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:25 am
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:19 am Are there any long-term forecasts starting to emerge - say strategies assuming 30% hesitancy holds up, etc. I think we've got to start talking long-term realistic where this keeps circulating indefinitely, right?
I'm watching, but I think the general (broad) consensus is that for the next ~2 years we can expect endemic levels of COVID domestically and globally, yes. Part of that is because we're not vaccinating people under the age of 16. That will change later this year when we're only leaving 0-11 year olds unvaccinated. After that and after global vaccination efforts peak (2023? 2024?), it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. Many are convinced we'll need annual shots (like influenza), but I don't think anyone really knows for sure.
This makes sense. I'm asking because we've (my colleagues and I) seen a marked change over the last few weeks indicating more long-term pessimism about this in our client base. I conducted an interview about a month ago with a business executive - he was in Denver - where he thought he'd be close to 100% of his sales staff back in office by end-of-year. Yesterday, he was pushing for better solutions for his sales force because he doesn't see them back in the office anytime this year. Huge shift in only a few weeks. Maybe the reality of the limitations of the improvements from vaccination are setting in. However, we were kicking this around internally and a couple other people mentioned that return to office policies are shifting swiftly now back towards WFH. That could be for a variety of reasons but COVID pessimism seems to be rising across a pool of about 20-30 clients. That feels significant but it hasn't crystalized yet.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Zaxxon wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:50 am
Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:46 am Zaxxon, I don't get the messaging you're worried about. If there is consensus that outdoor transmission is unlikely unless you are in a crowded area, why do we want to wear masks unnecessarily and message that that's not the case?
I'm not necessarily saying that I think there's a messaging problem, but I'm sensitive to what Smoove described above--if the public health experts are not sure, and the party line is therefore that it's still best to wear them, I can see how my not doing so could be construed as problematic.

To be clear, based on everything I've seen reported I absolutely do not believe that me running without a mask (in the places where I run, where distancing is generally super-easy) is putting anyone at any sort of risk, myself included.
Understood. But I'm not sure I understand what level of certainty we're expecting from our public health experts. It sometimes seems like many people want a guarantee - no chance you're getting COVID by doing X,Y,Z - before they feel like it's appropriate to ease back on restrictions. That doesn't seem like it's realistic, and I don't think that's the messaging public health experts are trying to convey, either.

Although, the media reporting truisms like this (from the ABC News piece Smoove linked to above) isn't great, either:
Even when outside, “the risk is not zero,” said Dr. Jay Bhatt, an internist in Chicago. “With people that you're not sure if they're vaccinated or not, then you have to consider masking.”
Any reporting or statement that "the risk is not zero" seems to me to be especially unhelpful and damaging.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:33 am That's helpful, as usual, Smoove. Does your calculus change at all if you are fully vaccinated, or is that another scenario where it muddles the messaging (because those who see you of course don't know your vaccination status)?
For me it doesn't, no. I am fully vaccinated and will be wearing masks as directed from now until, whenever. They're part of my routine now; I've accepted their use in my day-to-day living.
I've been running outdoors the whole time, with a double-layer gaiter around my neck that gets pulled up anytime I can't give someone a very wide (12 ft+) berth. I've been tempted to stop that, as realistically the risk seems extremely low from a fleeting pass at even 6 ft, but I do worry about the message I'd be sending.
I actually haven't seen updated guidance for running since the Fall of last year (prior to mass vaccination). I am curious if the change in weather will start more news pieces and official info to come out of the CDC, trying to clarify guidance from last year. AFAIK, the current recommendation is to still wear masks when exercising outdoors if you're unable to maintain distance. So if you're in a crowded park or constantly weaving in and out of people on a walking path, I'd be masked.

In a low-density scenario, I'd personally probably still pull up the gaiter if I couldn't give someone a wide berth outdoors (in some fantasy land where I'm out jogging), but I can understand why someone might not and I don't think I could fault them for it. I think it's more important (still) to keep that gaiter ready in case the environmental conditions change and you need to mask up. As a point of reference, I can't imagine pulling up a mask while riding a bike if I couldn't avoid someone and needed to buzz by them. Granted, there's more of a risk in taking your hands off the bars to pull up a mask than what you'd be doing while jogging (unless you're also holding shake-weights?), but all things equal, I get it.
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:53 amPersonally, I think we are going WAY overboard on risk measures at this time as individuals who have been vaccinated.
I'm not surprised. :D
But that doesn't mean I'm going to stop wearing a mask around other folks... if for nothing else, peer pressure is a real thing and I'm going to be a good citizen.
This is so critically important, and professionally speaking, I appreciate the effort. :wink:
Last edited by Smoove_B on Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:01 pm Any reporting or statement that "the risk is not zero" seems to me to be especially unhelpful and damaging.
Why? I actually like it as it makes me think and evaluate things for myself.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:01 pmAlthough, the media reporting truisms like this (from the ABC News piece Smoove linked to above) isn't great, either:
Even when outside, “the risk is not zero,” said Dr. Jay Bhatt, an internist in Chicago. “With people that you're not sure if they're vaccinated or not, then you have to consider masking.”
Any reporting or statement that "the risk is not zero" seems to me to be especially unhelpful and damaging.
This seems like a harsh read to me. This isn't too far from saying if you are operating your vehicle you should wear a seat belt because the risk of a crash is not zero. I can remember when people still had to be convinced to do that (heck some still won't wear a seatbelt).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Lorini »

What I read was something like "there are three major factors" Outdoors, masking, social distancing. You need two out of the three."

Thoughts?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Lorini wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:19 pm What I read was something like "there are three major factors" Outdoors, masking, social distancing. You need two out of the three."

Thoughts?
Makes sense but I'd say shoot for all 3 whenever possible. That way if one fails you're still covered.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:22 pm
Lorini wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:19 pm What I read was something like "there are three major factors" Outdoors, masking, social distancing. You need two out of the three."

Thoughts?
Makes sense but I'd say shoot for all 3 whenever possible. That way if one fails you're still covered.
"Risk reduction is additive" is the mantra. A great article from December,which includes the *perfect* image to explain it (thought its definitely more detailed than just offering the 3 broad categories)

Enlarge Image
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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That's a catchy mantra.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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malchior wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:07 pm
Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:01 pmAlthough, the media reporting truisms like this (from the ABC News piece Smoove linked to above) isn't great, either:
Even when outside, “the risk is not zero,” said Dr. Jay Bhatt, an internist in Chicago. “With people that you're not sure if they're vaccinated or not, then you have to consider masking.”
Any reporting or statement that "the risk is not zero" seems to me to be especially unhelpful and damaging.
This seems like a harsh read to me. This isn't too far from saying if you are operating your vehicle you should wear a seat belt because the risk of a crash is not zero. I can remember when people still had to be convinced to do that (heck some still won't wear a seatbelt).
The difference between not wearing a seatbelt and never dining indoors is fairly dramatic.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stessier wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:07 pm
Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:01 pm Any reporting or statement that "the risk is not zero" seems to me to be especially unhelpful and damaging.
Why? I actually like it as it makes me think and evaluate things for myself.
Unless you're a virologist specializing in airborne transmission, it's unlikely you can evaluate things accurately. I include myself in that statement.

Which is why I agree with Kurth that it's unhelpful. Nothing you do ever has zero risk. It's unattainable. How about giving us a framework that deals with reasonable risk?
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"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

The thing with public messaging is that people, on the whole, are idiots. If you tell pregnant women that, yes, it's safe to drink a beer, pregnant women will drink two beers and a shot ("I have good alcohol tolerance, so two beers for me is the same as one, and beers always come with a shot, so that's fine"), then have a nightcap when they get home. You want to have fun? Try finding out whether it is safe to have one beer while on a legal stimulant medication. The guidance all assumes that there are two possibilities: completely dry, or on a bender.

If you tell people the they don't always need to wear masks outdoors, many will take them off the second there isn't a roof over their head regardless of the circumstances, or use justifications like, "All the windows are open! That's the same as outdoors!"
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:42 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:07 pm
Kurth wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:01 pmAlthough, the media reporting truisms like this (from the ABC News piece Smoove linked to above) isn't great, either:
Even when outside, “the risk is not zero,” said Dr. Jay Bhatt, an internist in Chicago. “With people that you're not sure if they're vaccinated or not, then you have to consider masking.”
Any reporting or statement that "the risk is not zero" seems to me to be especially unhelpful and damaging.
This seems like a harsh read to me. This isn't too far from saying if you are operating your vehicle you should wear a seat belt because the risk of a crash is not zero. I can remember when people still had to be convinced to do that (heck some still won't wear a seatbelt).
The difference between not wearing a seatbelt and never dining indoors is fairly dramatic.
A direct comparison of risks wasn't the point. That said for all we know indoor dining between Thanksgiving and Christmas might have been more deadly than driving without a seatbelt.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:03 pmA direct comparison of risks wasn't the point. That said for all we know indoor dining between Thanksgiving and Christmas might have been more deadly than driving without a seatbelt.
A direct comparison of risks is EXACTLY the point. (note: indoor dining for the unvaccinated is still likely more deadly than driving without a seatbelt.)
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by YellowKing »

There's always been a disconnect between healthcare professionals and the general populace. The average person who gets a mild cut on their finger might run some cold water over it, slap a Band-Aid on, and call it a day. A nurse who has seen major blood infections arise from an infected cut is going to treat that same minor cut a lot differently. In a way many of us might call "going overboard."

I think right now most of the population's experience with Covid has been of the papercut variety, and they're acting accordingly.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

So our COVID census is starting to look like October 2020 which I certainty hope doesn't mean May will be like November.


But I wanted to take a second to remember where we were a year ago.





Despite all the missteps and vaccine hesitancy and other bad news we are worlds better off now.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:42 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:03 pmA direct comparison of risks wasn't the point. That said for all we know indoor dining between Thanksgiving and Christmas might have been more deadly than driving without a seatbelt.
A direct comparison of risks is EXACTLY the point. (note: indoor dining for the unvaccinated is still likely more deadly than driving without a seatbelt.)
Yup. Most people aren't going to be able or willing to stay home for a year plus, so they're inevitably going to engage in risk assessment. "The risk is not zero" is both something that almost everyone already knows, and totally unhelpful in terms of comparative risk assessment.

Rules like "you need at least two out of three" are both simple and helpful, though. I feel like there's a tendency among some public health experts to default to the most conservative rule for fear that everyone will immediately do stupid things if they don't, when I think there should be more of a focus on crafting simple rules / guidance that is more realistic in terms of what most people are going to do.
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

We tried; we told people to wear masks. Death threats followed and politicians have since voted to remove our powers.

Crafting a simple message is deceptively hard work and we absolutely fumbled a bit in the beginning. At the end of the day, there's so much we don't (and did not) know, so we default to practices that (for some) seem like too much but for us are likely lowering risk and include an additional layer of safety to account for things we don't know and human behavior.

Like, I'm pretty sure if we could get people to be 100% mask compliant with an n95 mask (or equivalent), the 3' rule would disappear. Instead, we're accounting for people wearing mesh masks in protest or having the masks under their noses.

Either way, I said it a year ago. I expected many things during a pandemic. That so many people would outright refuse masks was not on that list. I knew there would be some pockets of people, but not as many as we've seen. Without people willing to engage in the most basic and preventative behavior early on, this wasn't going to end any other way.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Either way, I said it a year ago. I expected many things during a pandemic. That so many people would outright refuse masks was not on that list. I knew there would be some pockets of people, but not as many as we've seen. Without people willing to engage in the most basic and preventative behavior early on, this wasn't going to end any other way.
Thanks Trump!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:49 am We tried; we told people to wear masks. Death threats followed and politicians have since voted to remove our powers.

Crafting a simple message is deceptively hard work and we absolutely fumbled a bit in the beginning. At the end of the day, there's so much we don't (and did not) know, so we default to practices that (for some) seem like too much but for us are likely lowering risk and include an additional layer of safety to account for things we don't know and human behavior.

Like, I'm pretty sure if we could get people to be 100% mask compliant with an n95 mask (or equivalent), the 3' rule would disappear. Instead, we're accounting for people wearing mesh masks in protest or having the masks under their noses.

Either way, I said it a year ago. I expected many things during a pandemic. That so many people would outright refuse masks was not on that list. I knew there would be some pockets of people, but not as many as we've seen. Without people willing to engage in the most basic and preventative behavior early on, this wasn't going to end any other way.
I totally understand.

And the complication gets in do you affect more people being binary or nuanced? It seems the official messages are pretty good with gray. While I think the CDC is a bit slow with updates, they overall do a good job of messaging. It gets messy when "experts" (the quotes are for lack of representative sampling as opposed to lack of credentials) are interviewed and then the message is then delivered by a non-expert... just like most science messaging.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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