Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stimpy »

Paingod wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:59 am The people who don't agree with racism and voter suppression really need to form a new party if the old one doesn't change. I don't exactly like casting them all under the same umbrella.
Nor should anyone.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Jeff V wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:16 pm I dunno, seems pretty simple to me. The political party in charge didn't want to deal with it, so they mischaracterized it, leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. The fools who followed them were the instruments of their own destruction.
The political party in charge didn't want to deal with it, that's true. But the nature of what it is and how it worked wasn't in their hands, and there were a lot of factors aside from leadership that affected how it played out. From the article (which I'm still working my way through):
A partial list: There is stochasticity, better known as chance, driven in part by superspreader dynamics, whereby the vast majority of new cases are produced by a thin slice of existing infections and most disease chains simply die out. There is demography, with the skew of lethality so dramatic that many of the world’s younger countries have almost no death toll. There is distribution of comorbidities throughout the population. There is geography, with islands enjoying obvious advantages, and with communities at higher latitudes apparently more at risk, perhaps due to the salubrious effects of sunlight. There is a country’s relationship to its own borders, and who its neighbors are, and its position in the networks of travel and commerce. There is climate, with temperature and especially humidity appearing to shape national outcomes much as they’ve shaped some seasonal rhythms of the disease within countries. There is air conditioning — whether you have it, and what kind. There is what Crotty described to me as a version of the “hygiene hypothesis” — the possibility that regular exposure to pathogens generally might train your immune system like it does your gut biome. There is the catchall of “cultural forces,” covering everything from multigenerational living and employment structures to cheek-kissing and handshakes.

I could go on: residential density, blood type, vitamin D, ICU capacity, proximity to bats. But any time you try to put a finger on a single, dominant factor, the disease slips away, defying reductive models and suggesting counterpoints and counterfactuals: Japan is old, Brazil is largely tropical, England is an island, and there’s hardly any air conditioning in France. And even beyond all of those factors, with relative impacts of unclear scale, there is what the controversial Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannides recently called the “chaos” of the disease — the seemingly random, and still mysterious, dynamics of spread, even beyond stochasticity, which can be at least mathematically modeled.
In the US, we're clean, we're fat, we're a hub, we're inland, we're partially northern, we're modern with lots of closed air circulation, we eat badly, we cluster, we're arrogant and see ourselves as invincible, etc.

We totally failed the response, absolutely. But from what I'm reading it is way more complex than that, and we'd still have likely been worse off than many other nations had the response been equal globally.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

The Meal wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:18 am Folks will be judged for their chosen associates.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

JFC already with this:
Robert Redfield, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said he believed the virus that causes Covid-19 originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China — contradicting the assessment of the World Health Organization and most public health experts.

In an interview with CNN’s Sanjay Gupta that aired Friday, the former Trump administration official also speculated that the virus began transmitting within central China’s Hubei province in September or October 2019, a potential time frame more in line with mainstream scientific views.

“That’s my own view. It’s only an opinion. I’m allowed to have opinions now,” said Redfield, who served as CDC director from 2018 until the end of former President Donald Trump’s term. He is now a senior adviser for public health to Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan on the state’s pandemic response.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Also, what's going on in MA?


Nearly half of all active #coronavirus cases in Massachusetts are in people under the age of 30. The group with the highest number of new cases are kids and teens
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

What's the current % in other states? The video seems to present this somewhat as the natural result of prioritizing vaccination of older people. I also wonder about the breakdown within 0-19; if it's more teens than kids, could be partly the result of having so many colleges here.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

Lorini wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:01 pm According to the NYT, very soon the US will have too much vaccine. They are trying to figure out what to do, as in keep it for later or send it to countries who don't have enough.

We would have loved to have had this problem a year ago.
Copied this from the EBG thread.

I sure hope we send it abroad for free. I think keeping a small stockpile to serve as a buffer until manufacturing can ramp up again if it turns out a booster is required this year is a good plan.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Grifman »

Just got my vaccine last night (Moderna). No reactions all is good. My mom's got hers, just got to get my second, then wait a couple of weeks and we will for the most part, be in the clear. Very happy about this.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

stessier wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:07 pm I sure hope we send it abroad for free. I think keeping a small stockpile to serve as a buffer until manufacturing can ramp up again if it turns out a booster is required this year is a good plan.
After making sure we have enough reserves, I'd be amazed if we didn't. As long as there are entire countries unvaccinated right now, we're all still at risk.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Vaccine job interviews:

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kasey Chang »

Still not finding any shots available in San Francisco. Checked all the mass vaccination sites: none have appointments available. NONE of the pharmacies have any either. But then, my only qualification would be I have horrible BMI (which is apparently a valid criteria here).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:15 pm
stessier wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:07 pm I sure hope we send it abroad for free. I think keeping a small stockpile to serve as a buffer until manufacturing can ramp up again if it turns out a booster is required this year is a good plan.
After making sure we have enough reserves, I'd be amazed if we didn't. As long as there are entire countries unvaccinated right now, we're all still at risk.
It would be nice to do something *positive* on the world stage again.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Kasey Chang wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:40 pm Still not finding any shots available in San Francisco. Checked all the mass vaccination sites: none have appointments available. NONE of the pharmacies have any either. But then, my only qualification would be I have horrible BMI (which is apparently a valid criteria here).
Hell yeah brother, cheers from Texas.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:53 pm
Kasey Chang wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:40 pm Still not finding any shots available in San Francisco. Checked all the mass vaccination sites: none have appointments available. NONE of the pharmacies have any either. But then, my only qualification would be I have horrible BMI (which is apparently a valid criteria here).
Hell yeah, brother! Cheers from Texas.
Yeah, I appear to be eligible now in MA as well, since the current eligible work groups now include prosecutors (not that I need to go to court often, which I assume is the logic behind the category, but I am a prosecutor). But yeah, not a hint of an availability on the state Vaxfinder site. I'm signed up on the pre-registration site and I'm on my doctor's list for when they get doses, so hopefully I'll get a ping on one of those sooner or later.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Grifman wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:16 pm Vaccine job interviews:

Thanks, I needed that.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Lorini »

Kasey Chang wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:40 pm Still not finding any shots available in San Francisco. Checked all the mass vaccination sites: none have appointments available. NONE of the pharmacies have any either. But then, my only qualification would be I have horrible BMI (which is apparently a valid criteria here).
Obesity is the number one predictor of death from Covid so yes, you would qualify. Check with your doctor's office if you can't get an appointment anywhere.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

Freyland wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:28 pm
Grifman wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:16 pm Vaccine job interviews:

Thanks, I needed that.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I chuckled several times. Especially when they slammed the door on AZ for not quarantining after flying in. :lol:

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

This is why we can't have nice things:
The immediate challenge for Walensky and other public health officials is to convince Americans weary of pandemic protocols to hold on just a little longer with masks and physical distancing as vaccinations are administered at an average clip of 2.5 million per day. Still, just 14 percent of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

But are Americans, or their elected leaders, listening?

The urgent pleas from public health officials come as a growing number of states have begun to relax mitigation strategies.

"Elected leaders are undermining public health messaging left and right," said Brian Castrucci, president and chief operating officer of the de Beaumont Foundation, a public health nonprofit.
And:
In a statement to NBC News, Walensky acknowledged her team is "competing against messages from states that are pulling back public health measures, like mask-wearing requirements and relaxing limits on in-person dining in restaurants and bars."

"We're also communicating with a fatigued public," she said following Friday's briefing in which she urged people to stay the course.

"We can turn this around, but it will take all of us working together."
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:34 pm "We can turn this around, but it will take all of us working together."
Narrator: We won't because we won't.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:38 pm Narrator: We won't because we won't.
Yup. The verdict is in:


Covid Epi Weekly: An Epidemic of Vaccine Inequity

As predicted, a US 4th surge appears to be beginning, fueled by variants and reopening. Cases up 7%. Positivity inching up, to 4.7%. Because of vaccination, deaths won't increase substantially. We must solve vaccine inequity.

...

Two great unknowns:
1/What will humans do–will we lose motivation as vaccines roll out and fail to maintain patience, discipline, and solidarity?
2/What will the virus do–will variants evade the vaccine?
The future isn’t certain, but it’s certain our actions can make it safer.18/
It's a gigantic thread (which I hate) but he does make some really important points.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Image
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:45 pm Also, what's going on in MA?
Nearly half of all active #coronavirus cases in Massachusetts are in people under the age of 30. The group with the highest number of new cases are kids and teens
I don't think it sheds any new light, but here's the latest on the nascent surge in MA.
Public health experts pointed to a number of factors that could be driving infections: increased circulation of a more-contagious variant of the coronavirus; pandemic fatigue, and springtime optimism that have led the public to be less vigilant; and Governor Charlie Baker’s continued loosening of public health guidelines.

Many epidemiologists have warned for weeks that these factors could combine to produce an uptick in cases. Now, with cases rising, they said it is clearer than ever that to avoid a surge, the state must exercise caution and resist the urge to let down our collective guard.

“This was predicted. ... And in my mind, this is all so unnecessary,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. “It feels like the governor has just stopped listening to public health experts. And I appreciate that he’s got to look at a broad swath of issues, but it still remains a public health problem.”
My main takeaway from the long NY Mag story that I linked on the last page is that the nations and states that largely avoided the plague didn't wait until the crisis was upon them to act. Rather, they imposed preventive measures before they were clearly needed. The hardest-hit polities, OTOH, didn't act until it was certainly necessary, by which time it was too late to head off. Even then, they acted hesitantly. And as soon as their surges peaked and started to come down again, they eased up.

That's exactly what's happening in MA. This latest (hopefully last) surge was predictably driven by spring break activities plus looser state restrictions, and will predictably peak after Easter. Fortunately about 80% of our most vulnerable residents are vaccinated now, so the death toll won't track infections as it did before. Nobody cares if young people get sick -- least of all young people themselves.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Based on the 'revelations' from Birx in the CNN documentary, we now essentially have another data point that points that the White House and specifically Trump intentionally did not respond appropriately to the pandemic. She essentially said hundreds of thousands of lives were sacrificed for Trump's whims. Further, the best time to bring up that maybe only 100K could have died is when over a half million have died. Absolutely enraging.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I was pointed by my Twitter feed to a WaPo article about Covid vaccine passports that are looking likely to be on the way. These passports would likely be used to show proof of vaccination to do things like take a cruise, board a plane, go to a ball game, or enter a private business.

The tweet that pointed this out to me was from a friend who thinks this is a sign of the end times, and some on the right are pushing it as a sign that the government wants to track Americans and that it will be mandatory to engage in commerce.

Here's a government slide WaPo attained giving a snapshot of what the Biden administration is doing here.



So, OOers, what are your thoughts on Covid vaccine passports should they become necessary to do anything later in 2021?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

pr0ner wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:31 am So, OOers, what are your thoughts on Covid vaccine passports should they become necessary to do anything later in 2021?
It's complicated and given how the public seems to process public health nuance, I predict...pain.

I do think it's a forgone conclusion you're going to need them for travel, though from a practical standpoint I wouldn't expect to see that until 2022 - mainly related to the studies that need to come out demonstrating with certainty that vaccines stop spread. Right now we're guessing (and it's a good guess), but the studies need to back it up. I'm more curious as to how domestic entities (employers, concert halls, sport events, etc....) are going to handle it - if they're going to do anything at all. I'm sure there are already armies of lawyers being drafted on both sides.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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pr0ner wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:31 am

So, OOers, what are your thoughts on Covid vaccine passports should they become necessary to do anything later in 2021?
How are people who have already had their vaccinations supposed to prove it? From what I've understood, the actual records are inconsistent and shoddy, and the little appointment cards they give you are mostly worthless as proof of anything - there's no security baked into them at all.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Blackhawk wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:06 am
pr0ner wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:31 am

So, OOers, what are your thoughts on Covid vaccine passports should they become necessary to do anything later in 2021?
How are people who have already had their vaccinations supposed to prove it? From what I've understood, the actual records are inconsistent and shoddy, and the little appointment cards they give you are mostly worthless as proof of anything - there's no security baked into them at all.
To get a passport you either get the vaccine or go through the minimal effort needed to fake proof that you got the vaccine.

Most providers keep detailed records even if the recipient doesn't get a copy. It will be easy to prove who got the vaccine in most cases. It won't be easy to prove who didn't.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by raydude »

Isgrimnur wrote:
Smoove_B wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:34 pm "We can turn this around, but it will take all of us working together."
Narrator: We won't because we won't.
I am fucking disgusted with this. My grandparents had to hide from the Japanese in the Philippines for 4 freaking years, so my family knows damn well we can stomach wearing masks and social distancing for at least that long.


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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I think the government does need to set policy for the use of vaccination passports. I think that commerce should be able to set a requirement for proof of vaccination in non essential cases. I don't think that a grocery store should require proof of vaccination, or a medical facility, or any other essential businesses. But travel like cruise lines would find it to be nearly impossible to return to pre Covid levels without a vaccination requirement. And we'll have to see what the airlines do. On the one hand I can see them wanting a vaccination requirement, but in several situations airline travel is in fact essential and not everyone who won't get a vaccination is able to be medically cleared for one. On the other hand, if Disneyland or a movie theatre says you have to have proof of vaccination to enter, I don't see an issue with that.

We'll see how it shakes out but it's certainly something that needs to be navigated and soon.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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This weekend I was sent some emails from Delta advertising service to Iceland. Iceland is opening themselves to vaccinated tourists. The criteria that Iceland seems to accept as a 'vaccine passport' lines up with the card I got when we got the shots. All the data they ask for is on it. Would I risk a 5 hour flight to find out? Probably not but I will say it is tempting in some capacity.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Lorini »

malchior wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:49 am This weekend I was sent some emails from Delta advertising service to Iceland. Iceland is opening themselves to vaccinated tourists. The criteria that Iceland seems to accept as a 'vaccine passport' lines up with the card I got when we got the shots. All the data they ask for is on it. Would I risk a 5 hour flight to find out? Probably not but I will say it is tempting in some capacity.
Given the airlines ventilation for the planes, plus your vaccination, you should be alright. For me, I'm not paying money to go to some place that's not warm with beaches and waiters in cute swim trunks serving me Margaritas :).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Lorini wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:33 am I think the government does need to set policy for the use of vaccination passports. I think that commerce should be able to set a requirement for proof of vaccination in non essential cases. I don't think that a grocery store should require proof of vaccination, or a medical facility, or any other essential businesses. But travel like cruise lines would find it to be nearly impossible to return to pre Covid levels without a vaccination requirement. And we'll have to see what the airlines do. On the one hand I can see them wanting a vaccination requirement, but in several situations airline travel is in fact essential and not everyone who won't get a vaccination is able to be medically cleared for one. On the other hand, if Disneyland or a movie theatre says you have to have proof of vaccination to enter, I don't see an issue with that.

We'll see how it shakes out but it's certainly something that needs to be navigated and soon.
I agree. The best way to change the minds of resisters is to extend privileges to those who comply -- make them want vaccination for purely selfish reasons. In another month or so, vaccine supply will outstrip demand, and they'll be easy to get...hopefully easier than some bogus certificate.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Lorini wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:37 am
malchior wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:49 am This weekend I was sent some emails from Delta advertising service to Iceland. Iceland is opening themselves to vaccinated tourists. The criteria that Iceland seems to accept as a 'vaccine passport' lines up with the card I got when we got the shots. All the data they ask for is on it. Would I risk a 5 hour flight to find out? Probably not but I will say it is tempting in some capacity.
Given the airlines ventilation for the planes, plus your vaccination, you should be alright. For me, I'm not paying money to go to some place that's not warm with beaches and waiters in cute swim trunks serving me Margaritas :).
I'm more worried I'll get there and they won't like my documents.

The beaches sound nice as well but Iceland is a surprisingly affordable nice vacation spot. It has beautiful views, hot springs, and the such. It's a good unplug type vacation spot.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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malchior wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:45 am
Lorini wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:37 am
malchior wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:49 am This weekend I was sent some emails from Delta advertising service to Iceland. Iceland is opening themselves to vaccinated tourists. The criteria that Iceland seems to accept as a 'vaccine passport' lines up with the card I got when we got the shots. All the data they ask for is on it. Would I risk a 5 hour flight to find out? Probably not but I will say it is tempting in some capacity.
Given the airlines ventilation for the planes, plus your vaccination, you should be alright. For me, I'm not paying money to go to some place that's not warm with beaches and waiters in cute swim trunks serving me Margaritas :).
I'm more worried I'll get there and they won't like my documents.

The beaches sound nice as well but Iceland is a surprisingly affordable nice vacation spot. It has beautiful views, hot springs, and the such. It's a good unplug type vacation spot.
As someone who went to Iceland a couple of years ago, I 100% agree. Some people get sticker shock going there (and granted hotels are a bit pricey), but since all food prices have VAT added in, and there's no real tipping in restaurants, the in country spend isn't really that bad, especially when the exchange rate is super favorable.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:27 am
Blackhawk wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:06 am
pr0ner wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:31 am

So, OOers, what are your thoughts on Covid vaccine passports should they become necessary to do anything later in 2021?
How are people who have already had their vaccinations supposed to prove it? From what I've understood, the actual records are inconsistent and shoddy, and the little appointment cards they give you are mostly worthless as proof of anything - there's no security baked into them at all.
To get a passport you either get the vaccine or go through the minimal effort needed to fake proof that you got the vaccine.

Most providers keep detailed records even if the recipient doesn't get a copy. It will be easy to prove who got the vaccine in most cases. It won't be easy to prove who didn't.

In other words, the vaccine passport proves that you asked for a vaccine passport.

Had the vaccination process been planned and implemented by a competent government, we could have anticipated this need (we did anticipate it) in time to put some mechanism in place for when we got to this point. Of course, that would have required federal oversight, and that wasn't going to happen.
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

You and me both doc:
“I’m going to lose the script, and I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom,” she said.

Cases of the virus are up about 10% over the past week to about 60,000 cases per day, with both hospitalizations and deaths ticking up as well, Walensky said. She warned that without immediate action, the U.S. could follow European countries into another spike in cases and suffer needless deaths.

“I have to share the truth, and I have to hope and trust you will listen,” she added.

“The president has not held back in calling for governors, leaders, the American people to continue to abide by the public health guidelines,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki. “He will continue to do that through all of his engagements.”

Walensky and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, appealed to elected officials, community leaders and everyday Americans to maintain social distancing measures and mask wearing.

“We are doing things prematurely,” Fauci said, referring to moves to ease up on restrictions. Walensky appealed to Americans, “Just please hold on a little while longer.”

She added: “We are not powerless. We can change this trajectory of the pandemic.”
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Zaxxon
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Colorado opening vaccine availability to everyone 16+ on Friday.
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LawBeefaroni
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

The dam broke.

I see people the day after their first shot hosting house parties. 'Cause they think COVID is over for them.
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