Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Daehawk
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

Worrying new coronavirus variants aren't just imported -- they can be home grown

They are starting to think the mutations are forming in patients with compromised immune systems and the longer they have the virus the more chance it mutates. Bad news for a lot of HIV and cancer sufferers...among others.
The 45-year-old patient had been sick with coronavirus for months. Doctors had given him the antiviral drug remdesivir to fight the virus, anticoagulation drugs to prevent blood clots, immune modulators to try to control his out-of-control immune response and steroids to fight inflammation.
He'd been home on and off but never seemed able fully recover. His blood oxygen would drop, although tests indicated he was negative for the virus.
It turns out it was just what doctors both knew and feared would happen -- the virus was evolving in the patient's body.
"We sequenced the virus from the first episode, from the second episode, and continued to sequence as the patient was admitted again and again," Li told CNN.

At first, the goal was simply to see if the patient was getting repeated new infections, or had developed a chronic infection with the same virus.
The genetic tests not only showed the man had been infected with the same virus all along, but that it had been evolving as it replicated. "It was incredible," Li said.
Over the next few weeks the patient -- who had an underlying condition that weakened his immunity -- developed a range of symptoms. Five months after he first tested positive, the patient was put on a ventilator to help him breathe. He developed an invasive fungal infection, and died 154 days into his illness.
An autopsy showed his lungs and spleen were laden with virus. And the mutations were especially common in what's known as the receptor binding domain of the spike gene -- which codes for the knob-like structures the virus uses to dock onto the cells it infects.
Looking back, Li says, the resemblance is clear. They're the same mutations that are worrying scientists watching the so-called South African, UK and Brazilian variants known as B.1.351, B.1.1.7 and P.1.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I haven't heard much about that linked article. But I did see that Iowa is now open for business:


Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds' new Emergency Proclamation starting Sunday:

ENDS MASK MANDATE
NO LIMITS ON PUBLIC GATHERINGS
RESTAURANTS CAN PACK BARS - NO LIMITS
I guess I missed the memo that the pandemic was over. Good luck Iowans.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

I didn't know that Leeroy Jenkins was a public health protocol.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:20 pm I didn't know that Leeroy Jenkins was a public health protocol.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Image
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

At first I was like "how is that an emergency proclamation? Quick, we need to pretend everything is normal IMMEDIATELY!"

Then I was like "ohhhhh, it's not a proclamation caused by an emergency, it's an emergency caused by a proclamation."
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:43 pm I haven't heard much about that linked article. But I did see that Iowa is now open for business:


Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds' new Emergency Proclamation starting Sunday:

ENDS MASK MANDATE
NO LIMITS ON PUBLIC GATHERINGS
RESTAURANTS CAN PACK BARS - NO LIMITS
I guess I missed the memo that the pandemic was over. Good luck Iowans.
So by "Emergency Proclamation", I guess it means a proclamation designed to create (or worsen) an emergency?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

Not for the first time, I feel sorry for people who have to live and die in Iowa. But they think they're freer than I am, so that's a thought they can take to the ICU.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

It's stuff like that which makes me reconsider the mandate to treat everyone who walks into an ER even if they can't pay. I know, compassion even for stupid people, but man that makes it hard.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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News is dubbing gathering in homes tomorrow for the Super Bowl with lack of distancing, limiting number, no mask and such as the Stupid Bowl.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

Wonder when the normal populace can go to a place and pick their vaccine?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Daehawk wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:42 pm Wonder when the normal populace can go to a place and pick their vaccine?
Many months from now.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

We'll go up further next week, when pharmacies start giving vaccines en mass. And by my back of the envelope calculations, around 2.3M is what's needed to deliver the amount of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines supply we'll expect to have over the next 5 months (100M for each in Q1, and 100M for each in Q2), which would mean that we could, theoretically, have around 200 million people vaccinated by the end of June (well, give or take a few weeks). And that's not counting J&J or other vaccines or, IIRC, the increased amount Biden ordered of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

Of course, that requires that demand remains steady (I've seen polls showing that ~78% want to get the vaccine, although about half of those want to wait before getting it, while the other half will get it as soon as they can)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Isgrimnur »

Rounding off the numbers I got from the county:

We'll start scheduling 70k in line and up next week. We expect to do 10K a week. You're at 230k.

So that's 160k from me, or 16 weeks. Maybe by May I can get the first shot.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

Zaxxon wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:57 pm
Daehawk wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:42 pm Wonder when the normal populace can go to a place and pick their vaccine?
Many months from now.
The way the mutations are spreading that will be too late to contain it. One thing that worries me is getting the first shot then having trouble finding the second one on time.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

I said I was holding out for the sugar cube version. Good news! The first oral covid vaccine is in phase 1 trials. OK, it's a tablet, not a sugar cube, but they have to start somewhere.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:50 pm I said I was holding out for the sugar cube version. Good news! The first oral covid vaccine is in phase 1 trials. OK, it's a tablet, not a sugar cube, but they have to start somewhere.
http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 9#p2800249
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

hitbyambulance wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:39 am
Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:50 pm I said I was holding out for the sugar cube version. Good news! The first oral covid vaccine is in phase 1 trials. OK, it's a tablet, not a sugar cube, but they have to start somewhere.
http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 9#p2800249
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

Kraken wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:33 am
hitbyambulance wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:39 am
Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:50 pm I said I was holding out for the sugar cube version. Good news! The first oral covid vaccine is in phase 1 trials. OK, it's a tablet, not a sugar cube, but they have to start somewhere.
http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 9#p2800249
Go ahead. Say BAM! You know you want to,
http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 1#p2795091

BAM!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Why opening restaurants is exactly what the coronavirus wants us to do:


Announcing that indoor dining would reopen at 25% capacity in New York City on Valentine’s Day, and wedding receptions could also resume with up to 150 people a month after, Cuomo suggested: “You propose on Valentine’s Day and then you can have the wedding ceremony March 15, up to 150 people. People will actually come to your wedding because you can tell them, with the testing, it will be safe. … No pressure, but it’s just an idea.”

Cuomo isn’t alone in taking measures to loosen pandemic-related restrictions. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer allowed indoor dining to resume at 25% capacity starting Feb. 1. Idaho Gov. Brad Little increased limits on indoor gatherings from 10 to 50 people. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker is raising business capacity from 25% to 40%, including at restaurants and gyms. California Gov. Gavin Newsom lifted stay-at-home orders on Jan. 25.

To justify their reopening decisions, governors point to falling case counts. “We make decisions based on facts,” Cuomo said. “New York City numbers are down.”

But epidemiologists and public health experts say a crucial factor is missing from these calculations: the threat of new viral variants. One coronavirus variant, which originated in the United Kingdom and is now spreading in the U.S., is believed to be 50% more transmissible. The more cases there are, the faster new variants can spread. Because the baseline of case counts in the U.S. is already so high — we’re still averaging about 130,000 new cases a day — and because the spread of the virus grows exponentially, cases could easily climb past the 300,000-per-day peak we reached in early January if we underestimate the variants, experts said.

Furthermore, study after study has identified indoor spaces — particularly restaurants, where consistent masking is not possible — as some of the highest-risk locations for transmission to occur. Even with distanced tables, case studies have shown that droplets can travel long distances within dining establishments, sometimes helped along by air conditioning.

We’re just in the opening stage of the new variants’ arrival in the United States. Experts say we could speed viruses’ spread by providing them with superspreading playgrounds or slow them down by starving them of opportunities to replicate.
But you don't need to take my word for it:
Fauci urged states to “double down on your public health measures … to have virtually everybody wear masks, to have everyone maintain social distance, to have everybody avoid congregate settings, and to have everybody wash their hands very frequently.”

And don’t wait until it’s too late, warned Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

“We are so good at pumping the brakes after we’ve wrapped the car around the tree,” he said. The new variants aren’t being complacent. “There’s still a lot of human wood out there for this coronavirus to burn.”
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

Human race be like - "Just open everything back up! Lets get this extinction over with and stop dragging it out already."
“We are so good at pumping the brakes after we’ve wrapped the car around the tree,”
haha I like that analogy.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Zaxxon wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:57 pm
Daehawk wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:42 pm Wonder when the normal populace can go to a place and pick their vaccine?
Many months from now.
Current estimate for Michigan (as of 2/3 update) is people with existing conditions known to respond poorly to COVID (AKA Phase 1C Group B) can start getting in line in May if their county is ready (In mid January that estimate was March and things were supposed be getting faster).... So yeah, general population is long way a way.

Current estimate is July but unless the other vaccines start rolling out, I'm dubious. Wayne and Washenaw counties both say they are still on phase 1A no matter that the state says we're on 1C Group A. Though it would seem that if you know somebody or are a step above the Cadillac health care plan, the waiting times for the group you are in is negotiable. More doses have gone to Oakland county than to Wayne County despite more medical staff in Wayne county and Wayne County having 1.5x the pop of Oakland county. But as the poet Emenem once observed. 8 Mile.

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coro ... 0349_7.pdf
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

Washington’s hospitals send N95 masks to 3M for testing and discover many are knockoffs

i really do wonder how much money the state has wasted on fake PPE supplies
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Defiant wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:05 am
Kraken wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:33 am
hitbyambulance wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:39 am
Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:50 pm I said I was holding out for the sugar cube version. Good news! The first oral covid vaccine is in phase 1 trials. OK, it's a tablet, not a sugar cube, but they have to start somewhere.
http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 9#p2800249
Go ahead. Say BAM! You know you want to,
http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 1#p2795091

BAM!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Always grateful when celebrities share their stories (no snark) because it helps reinforce the message:


I'm going to share a cautionary tale with you. When Dr Fauci said either wear an N95 mask or double your masks when you wear them, do it. Because even when you think it'll be ok to just wear the one lightweight mask when you're around someone for 10-15 minutes, you're not safe. I've been so safe, you guys. SO. SAFE. This past year, I've had to have a plumber in my house and an electrician. We all kept our distance and wore N95 masks and we were ok. Two weeks ago, someone I knew stopped by to pick up stuff I was donating. She is SO careful as well. BUT..She had to get an emergency root canal a couple of days prior to coming to my house. I'm an idiot and grabbed the blue medical mask (she wore same thing) and we briefly passed each other in my doorway carrying stuff to her car. Next day she wasn't feeling well, tested positive. About 4 days later I started feeling run down. Next day, bad headache, then painful lymph nodes in my neck, pressure up high in my chest, body aches, low fever. So I got tested, so did Wil. Difference is Wil wore an N95 mask when she was here and was like 15 feet away from her.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:42 pm Always grateful when celebrities share their stories (no snark) because it helps reinforce the message:
Celebrities are a double edged sword. Celebrity kooks are possibly more influential than reasonable-minded celebs.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, I should probably re-phrase that I'm glad she shared her story and it's one with an important message to consider. She could have absolutely shared something wacky about magnets or how giving her friend access to WiFi transmitted the Gates Covid to her or something else absurd. But yeah, the fact that it's not batshit insane likely means it won't be heard. :(
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:13 pm something wacky about magnets
:shock:

My Aunt hit up my family with this around the election. She is a retired respiratory therapist and still fell into this. I thought/hoped it was not a wide spread phenomenon. Amusingly, she only approached my brother (animator) and parents (retired nurse) and not myself (engineer) or my other brother (biochemist). Said we wouldn't take her seriously. She was right. Whereas my parents and brother humored her and were polite, I'm not sure that is the tack I would have taken.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... -variants/
CDC conducted experiments last month to test the effectiveness of mask combinations at reducing the amount of particles released during a cough. A three-ply surgical mask blocked 42% of particles from a simulated cough, and a three-ply cloth mask blocked 44%. But a cloth mask covering a medical mask blocked 92% of the particles, the report said.

In a second experiment, a dummy wearing double masks and one wearing a knotted/tucked medical mask reduced exposure for an unmasked dummy by 82% and 62%, respectively. When one dummy was not wearing any masks and the one acting as the bystander wore a double mask or a knotted/tucked medical mask, the bystander’s exposure was reduced by 83% and 64.5%, respectively.

But when both dummies wore double masks or knotted/tucked medical masks, the bystander’s exposure was reduced by more than 95% in both situations.

Brooks cautioned against generalizing the numeric findings of the studies, however. The experiments used one type of cotton mask and one type of medical mask in a laboratory, “not with human beings,”he said.
so by this logic, wouldn't SIX LAYERS also provide 90%+ protection? i'm getting one.

https://www.tombihn.com/products/v6mask ... 4876538045

(i have the V3 and the V4 - both are by far the best facial coverings i have tried, but the V3 is in a class of its own)

https://www.tombihn.com/collections/fac ... 5238960191
https://www.tombihn.com/collections/fac ... 2416988223
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

Calling it an "unmasked dummy" is probably redundant.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:50 pm https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... -variants/
CDC conducted experiments last month to test the effectiveness of mask combinations at reducing the amount of particles released during a cough. A three-ply surgical mask blocked 42% of particles from a simulated cough, and a three-ply cloth mask blocked 44%. But a cloth mask covering a medical mask blocked 92% of the particles, the report said.

In a second experiment, a dummy wearing double masks and one wearing a knotted/tucked medical mask reduced exposure for an unmasked dummy by 82% and 62%, respectively. When one dummy was not wearing any masks and the one acting as the bystander wore a double mask or a knotted/tucked medical mask, the bystander’s exposure was reduced by 83% and 64.5%, respectively.

But when both dummies wore double masks or knotted/tucked medical masks, the bystander’s exposure was reduced by more than 95% in both situations.

Brooks cautioned against generalizing the numeric findings of the studies, however. The experiments used one type of cotton mask and one type of medical mask in a laboratory, “not with human beings,”he said.
so by this logic, wouldn't SIX LAYERS also provide 90%+ protection? i'm getting one.

https://www.tombihn.com/products/v6mask ... 4876538045

(i have the V3 and the V4 - both are by far the best facial coverings i have tried, but the V3 is in a class of its own)

https://www.tombihn.com/collections/fac ... 5238960191
https://www.tombihn.com/collections/fac ... 2416988223
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by raydude »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:50 pm https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... -variants/
CDC conducted experiments last month to test the effectiveness of mask combinations at reducing the amount of particles released during a cough. A three-ply surgical mask blocked 42% of particles from a simulated cough, and a three-ply cloth mask blocked 44%. But a cloth mask covering a medical mask blocked 92% of the particles, the report said.

In a second experiment, a dummy wearing double masks and one wearing a knotted/tucked medical mask reduced exposure for an unmasked dummy by 82% and 62%, respectively. When one dummy was not wearing any masks and the one acting as the bystander wore a double mask or a knotted/tucked medical mask, the bystander’s exposure was reduced by 83% and 64.5%, respectively.

But when both dummies wore double masks or knotted/tucked medical masks, the bystander’s exposure was reduced by more than 95% in both situations.

Brooks cautioned against generalizing the numeric findings of the studies, however. The experiments used one type of cotton mask and one type of medical mask in a laboratory, “not with human beings,”he said.
so by this logic, wouldn't SIX LAYERS also provide 90%+ protection? i'm getting one.

https://www.tombihn.com/products/v6mask ... 4876538045

(i have the V3 and the V4 - both are by far the best facial coverings i have tried, but the V3 is in a class of its own)

https://www.tombihn.com/collections/fac ... 5238960191
https://www.tombihn.com/collections/fac ... 2416988223
Thank you for posting the link on the V3 mask. I haven't gotten to the point where I want to get an N95 mask yet and combine it with my cloth mask, but I was thinking about purchasing a cloth mask with more than 2 layers. I ordered my V3 today.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daehawk »

That Wil wife post. She said that woman was there 2 weeks ago and she caught it from her. But Wil is ok? Do they wear n95 masks at home and to sleep in? Why hasn't he caught it from his wife yet?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Daehawk wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:36 pm That Wil wife post. She said that woman was there 2 weeks ago and she caught it from her. But Wil is ok? Do they wear n95 masks at home and to sleep in? Why hasn't he caught it from his wife yet?
She said he was there that day, wearing an n95 and not getting close to the person in question. He's tested negative multiple times and is still keeping his distance now that his his wife is sick. I haven't read up to see if anything has changed but it sounds like they acted quickly and minimized his risk.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gbasden »

Daehawk wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:36 pm That Wil wife post. She said that woman was there 2 weeks ago and she caught it from her. But Wil is ok? Do they wear n95 masks at home and to sleep in? Why hasn't he caught it from his wife yet?
My sister got it and isolated quickly. Because she separated herself, none of the other family members caught it.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Little Raven »

My coworker did a family vacation over Christmas, and pretty much to the whole family got it. His father in law, sister in law, brother in law, and their kids. And his wife, of course. As you might imagine they didn't isolate at all. But somehow both he and his mother in law have repeatedly tested negative for both the virus and the antibodies.

It's wacky.
/. "She climbed backwards out her
\/ window into Outside Over There."
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

This is kind of a big deal.

Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID19
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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msteelers
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by msteelers »

Smoove_B wrote:This is kind of a big deal.

Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID19
Any word yet on masks for people fully vaccinated?
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Paingod
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Paingod »

msteelers wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:28 am
Smoove_B wrote:This is kind of a big deal.
Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID19
Any word yet on masks for people fully vaccinated?
I'm getting my second shot today (as a worker in a medical facility; while I don't directly interact with patients, I do work on staff computers and at times have to be within feet of patients). This is something I've wondered too. I expect our clinic workers and doctors to continue wearing masks so they can tell patients to without them putting up a fuss or having to explain it constantly.

I'm not considering trying to wander around grocery stores with my mask off and scream that I'm special and exempt. Even if I could wear a badge to show I was vaccinated, I'd still wear the mask for everyone's benefit... but maybe sitting at my desk in my office with only my other vaccinated co-workers around me?

I am still considering wearing a mask in public for years to come. I think that other countries have the right idea in normalizing them. This pandemic isn't the first and won't be the last.
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2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
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