Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by $iljanus »


Stefan Stirzaker wrote:I would of thought that excluding the Antigen/rapid tests would be best practice as all they indicate is that you were infected at some stage, that is to say weeks or months ago. It doesn't indicate if they are infectious now or anything else, whereas the swab tests measure real current viral load so I don't actually see that it's undercounting. Happy to stand corrected on this.
I think you are confusing the antigen test with the antibody test. The antigen test detects specific proteins present on the virus so it's a valid indicator of active infection but it is not as accurate as the PCR test which measures the amount of viral DNA. The antibody test measures the antibodies that a person produces in response to the virus which can be due to active or past exposure so it is not appropriate for screening for active infection.

Now from what I understand, the antigen test does have a higher false negative rate but I don't see why that should be a factor for excluding it from a state's reporting.

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

$iljanus wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:21 amNow from what I understand, the antigen test does have a higher false negative rate but I don't see why that should be a factor for excluding it from a state's reporting.
Since confirmed cases are one of the key metrics being reported it doesn't make sense to me to exclude them because they missed some. However Devil's advocate it could be argued it is artificially lowering the Test Positivity metric. Which is more important? Don't know but you could partially solve for that by breaking out the composition of positive tests by type.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by $iljanus »


malchior wrote:
$iljanus wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:21 amNow from what I understand, the antigen test does have a higher false negative rate but I don't see why that should be a factor for excluding it from a state's reporting.
Since confirmed cases are one of the key metrics being reported it doesn't make sense to me to exclude them because they missed some. However Devil's advocate it could be argued it is artificially lowering the Test Positivity metric. Which is more important? Don't know but you could partially solve for that by breaking out the composition of positive tests by type.
Breaking it down by type would probably add work and confusion to an already overwhelmed system unfortunately.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Stefan Stirzaker »

$iljanus wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:21 am
Stefan Stirzaker wrote:I would of thought that excluding the Antigen/rapid tests would be best practice as all they indicate is that you were infected at some stage, that is to say weeks or months ago. It doesn't indicate if they are infectious now or anything else, whereas the swab tests measure real current viral load so I don't actually see that it's undercounting. Happy to stand corrected on this.
I think you are confusing the antigen test with the antibody test. The antigen test detects specific proteins present on the virus so it's a valid indicator of active infection but it is not as accurate as the PCR test which measures the amount of viral DNA. The antibody test measures the antibodies that a person produces in response to the virus which can be due to active or past exposure so it is not appropriate for screening for active infection.

Now from what I understand, the antigen test does have a higher false negative rate but I don't see why that should be a factor for excluding it from a state's reporting.
Ah yep you're right. Thanks for clarification, i had them mixed up
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by $iljanus »

Stefan Stirzaker wrote:
$iljanus wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:21 am
Stefan Stirzaker wrote:I would of thought that excluding the Antigen/rapid tests would be best practice as all they indicate is that you were infected at some stage, that is to say weeks or months ago. It doesn't indicate if they are infectious now or anything else, whereas the swab tests measure real current viral load so I don't actually see that it's undercounting. Happy to stand corrected on this.
I think you are confusing the antigen test with the antibody test. The antigen test detects specific proteins present on the virus so it's a valid indicator of active infection but it is not as accurate as the PCR test which measures the amount of viral DNA. The antibody test measures the antibodies that a person produces in response to the virus which can be due to active or past exposure so it is not appropriate for screening for active infection.

Now from what I understand, the antigen test does have a higher false negative rate but I don't see why that should be a factor for excluding it from a state's reporting.
Ah yep you're right. Thanks for clarification, i had them mixed up
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

$iljanus wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 7:23 am Breaking it down by type would probably add work and confusion to an already overwhelmed system unfortunately.
In the age of Big Data this is trivial if we* have the will to do it.


*By proxy, our government masters


Unfortunately contesting an election that hasn't happened yet, extorting China, and buying vaccines that don't exist yet are higher priorities than accurate data so...
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Fear not, citizens! It is going away!



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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by $iljanus »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:59 am
$iljanus wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 7:23 am Breaking it down by type would probably add work and confusion to an already overwhelmed system unfortunately.
In the age of Big Data this is trivial if we* have the will to do it.


*By proxy, our government masters


Unfortunately contesting an election that hasn't happened yet, extorting China, and buying vaccines that don't exist yet are higher priorities than accurate data so...
Well, with a state government that doesn't want to be inconvenienced by negative data along with this from the article quoted above it is what it is as someone put it recently...
A reliance on faxed test results has created a paper backlog that makes it impossible for the state to do its own tally
Reporting by paper. How quaint.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

Defiant wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:39 am
raydude wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:12 pm The server was waiting on a table and she had her mask on but nose uncovered. So I was wondering, what do you do if that ever came up? Do you tell your server to please cover her nose?

One suggestion I've seen is to pretend *you're* not feeling well. That will get them to wear their mask properly. Or get you ejected from the restaurant.
Another option, if you have kids:


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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by noxiousdog »

I'm pro mask, but they are pretty useless outside unless you're in a crowded area.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Zaxxon wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:23 am Fear not, citizens! It is going away!



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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:31 am I'm pro mask, but they are pretty useless outside unless you're in a crowded area.
I haven't generally worn my mask when pumping gas, unless I'm close to someone else. I do sanitize my hands afterwards, though.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:34 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:31 am I'm pro mask, but they are pretty useless outside unless you're in a crowded area.
I haven't generally worn my mask when pumping gas, unless I'm close to someone else. I do sanitize my hands afterwards, though.
I grab paper towel and use it as gloves. I also don't wear a mask unless someone is pumping next to me. Which is probably a mistake, as what do I do if someone pulls up next to me? The irony, of course, is that that last time I pumped gas... June? Early July? I was judging the high volume of people going in and out of the gas station pre-work (it was a lot) as not a single one was wearing a mask, including a couple of people wearing scrubs/nursing/med tech uniforms. That was before 2nd mask wearing mandate and many stores publicly insisted they back store policies (whether they enforce them or not) on masks. Still, my faith in my fellow man dropped to zero then and I doubled down on never leaving the house unnecessarily again.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

I keep trying to use context clues to figure out what you mean, but I'm getting nowhere. What is this "pumping gas" that you speak of?

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:50 pm I keep trying to use context clues to figure out what you mean, but I'm getting nowhere. What is this "pumping gas" that you speak of?

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:53 pm
stessier wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:50 pm I keep trying to use context clues to figure out what you mean, but I'm getting nowhere. What is this "pumping gas" that you speak of?

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by naednek »

Defiant wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:22 am
Defiant wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:39 am
raydude wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:12 pm The server was waiting on a table and she had her mask on but nose uncovered. So I was wondering, what do you do if that ever came up? Do you tell your server to please cover her nose?

One suggestion I've seen is to pretend *you're* not feeling well. That will get them to wear their mask properly. Or get you ejected from the restaurant.
Another option, if you have kids:


Why would you need to wear a mask while putting gas in your car? I mean I wear a mask when I'm in places where I'm in contact or near people, but at a gas station? nobody is around me. I guess maybe you are talking having to go pay inside. Who does that ? :P
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hepcat »

I'm starting to see more and more people wearing masks even when outside and safely distanced from others. I'm beginning to wonder if I'm one of THOSE people because I'm not wearing mine similarly?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by coopasonic »

stessier wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:57 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:53 pm
stessier wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:50 pm I keep trying to use context clues to figure out what you mean, but I'm getting nowhere. What is this "pumping gas" that you speak of?

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I figure this thread can use all the laughs it can get - even if it's only 5 people laughing. :)
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Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zarathud »

Easier to wear a mask when outside and people may come near. Some of you people are barbarians.

I take my mask off in my office while on the phone as there’s a door. You open it to my germs at your own risk, but I will put on my mask then.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Zarathud wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:43 pm I take my mask off in my office while on the phone as there’s a door. You open it to my germs at your own risk, but I will put on my mask then.

Your message changed when I hit reply. :x My mask is off in my "office" with a closed and locked door. People can't just let themselves in. I let them in when I mask up. I'm not sure what I'd do if I didn't have a lock. People turn the handle to let themselves in too often. Even after over a month of part time being in the office, and when there are at most, 15 of us who have been given permission to return as necessary.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

https://apnews.com/aebdc0978de958f20ab3f398cdf6f769

it'll be a month as of Thursday and i still haven't received my results.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Paingod »

My office is mask-free inside, but the clinics we have are all mask-required. Me and two other managers have their own offices that people rarely walk into, and when they do they stand at the door to talk. Staff here sit at least 10' apart in their own spaces, but we all have to walk down the same hallways and pass by each other.

When someone from one of the clinics comes in for a day, they wear their mask for a full 6-8 hours, but mostly out of habit I think. They must all think we're barbarians. Except for the doctor who stopped in today. When I told her we all just keep distance here, she ripped her mask off happily.

I think that if Maine was sporting higher COVID numbers I'd be more concerned and wearing it in the office as well. We're currently trending down to fewer than 14 new cases per day in a state with 1.35 million people.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:58 pm https://apnews.com/aebdc0978de958f20ab3f398cdf6f769

it'll be a month as of Thursday and i still haven't received my results.
South Carolina was testing 8-10k people / day at the beginning of July. We are now testing 5000-6500/day. Our positivity rate is somewhere between 18-20% (although I'm not sure I fully trust the data).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by raydude »

My work instituted a policy back in March - if you can work from home then do so. Only come into work if work from home is not possible. Masks are required in any indoor area where you might interact with another person; including all public spaces, hallways, conference rooms, restrooms and elevators. Employees report if they've tested positive and fill out a form to list which offices they've been in and who they've been in contact with while at work prior to testing positive. Those people are contacted privately and an email is sent out to the entire staff saying that a person from such and such building tested positive and the email lists any additional buildings or lab spaces the person has been in.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by YellowKing »

hepcat wrote:I'm starting to see more and more people wearing masks even when outside and safely distanced from others. I'm beginning to wonder if I'm one of THOSE people because I'm not wearing mine similarly?
The official guidelines from my state are "wear masks when in indoor (public) spaces or where social distancing is not possible." Anytime I'm not wearing my mask, I'm outside and I'm social distanced, so I don't feel like I'm being unreasonable. Other people may be being MORE cautious, and I have no issue with that. But I don't feel like I'm endangering anyone when I'm abiding by state regulations.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gilraen »

YellowKing wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:30 pm
hepcat wrote:I'm starting to see more and more people wearing masks even when outside and safely distanced from others. I'm beginning to wonder if I'm one of THOSE people because I'm not wearing mine similarly?
The official guidelines from my state are "wear masks when in indoor (public) spaces or where social distancing is not possible." Anytime I'm not wearing my mask, I'm outside and I'm social distanced, so I don't feel like I'm being unreasonable. Other people may be being MORE cautious, and I have no issue with that. But I don't feel like I'm endangering anyone when I'm abiding by state regulations.
If they are running lots of errands when they are going in and out of stores or other businesses - I can see where it's easier to just keep the mask on. Especially if it's a kind that has ties in the back of the head instead of ear loops.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

I would rather people wear masks too much than not enough. It's a good habit to get into, can add to pressure to get people who don't wear a mask to wear a mask if they see the majority of people wearing a mask, and, quite frankly, I don't think that highly of lots of people's judgement (especially after the last few years) to trust that they'll be good judges of when to wear a mask and when it's safe not to wear a mask.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

stessier wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:12 pm
hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:58 pm https://apnews.com/aebdc0978de958f20ab3f398cdf6f769

it'll be a month as of Thursday and i still haven't received my results.
South Carolina was testing 8-10k people / day at the beginning of July. We are now testing 5000-6500/day. Our positivity rate is somewhere between 18-20% (although I'm not sure I fully trust the data).
A week or two back we were told at work that MUSC, the big hospital in the area, would no longer provide tests to anyone that wants one, mainly due to the testing backlog. Instead, they're only testing people who are sick enough to need to treatment. I don't know if similar policy changes occurred in other areas but, if so, it could explain the decrease in testing.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:58 pm https://apnews.com/aebdc0978de958f20ab3f398cdf6f769

it'll be a month as of Thursday and i still haven't received my results.
aaaand i just got them
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Enough »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:12 pm
hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:58 pm https://apnews.com/aebdc0978de958f20ab3f398cdf6f769

it'll be a month as of Thursday and i still haven't received my results.
aaaand i just got them
aaaand the results?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by hitbyambulance »

negative. which i was positive they were going to be
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:27 pm negative. which i was positive they were going to be
And we are going to...... live!

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

The story behind that photo from the school in Georgia:
Despite recommendations from CDC health officials, the district has called mask-wearing a “personal choice” and said that social distancing “will not be possible to enforce” in “most cases.” While the school provided teachers with face shields and masks and encouraged staff and students to wear them, they are not required and not all teachers have chosen to use them. One North Paulding teacher resigned last month over concerns about virus safety.

“Days before school even started, they knew that many of the football players were sick,” said a person familiar with the issues at the high school. “They knew from before day one that it wasn't going to work.”
...
Amy, a school nurse, resigned from Paulding County Schools in July over concerns about virus safety. She said under the school district’s plan, school nurses were supposed to act as contact tracers for thousands of kids and staff, and that a district plan to sequester children believed to be exposed until their parents could pick them up seemed insufficient.

“I did not want to have any part of that,” she said. “It was completely and totally irresponsible.”

In a resignation letter she shared with BuzzFeed News, she wrote, “Masks are not a ‘personal choice’ during a pandemic. I cannot return knowing I am not supportive of your decision to open so quickly and not at least mandate masks.”
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Submitted on Medium, written by a teacher:
For parents who are struggling without in-person school, any solution that puts their kid in a classroom seems like a welcome reprieve. And because administrators want to please you, they’re dressing their in-person plans up in their Sunday best, marketing them as spectacularly as they can in emails and at board meetings. But here’s the unfortunate truth, the reality that superintendents aren’t bragging about on social media, and parents really need to hear it as soon as possible: you’re being lied to. This is a bait and switch.

Here’s the truth about what is about to happen, as someone who has sat in on planning meetings throughout July and who has been teaching for over a decade:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Also of note:


Does America understand that the NBA bubble is literally just them using the proper isolation, distancing, mask and testing protocols and that if our federal government and state officials had done what the NBA is doing back in March and stuck with it THAT WE’D BE OKAY BY NOW
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:19 pm Submitted on Medium, written by a teacher:
For parents who are struggling without in-person school, any solution that puts their kid in a classroom seems like a welcome reprieve. And because administrators want to please you, they’re dressing their in-person plans up in their Sunday best, marketing them as spectacularly as they can in emails and at board meetings. But here’s the unfortunate truth, the reality that superintendents aren’t bragging about on social media, and parents really need to hear it as soon as possible: you’re being lied to. This is a bait and switch.

Here’s the truth about what is about to happen, as someone who has sat in on planning meetings throughout July and who has been teaching for over a decade:
There will be no socialization. Kids have to be six feet away from each other, have to be masked, can’t share supplies, can’t walk through the hallways except in a distanced line, can’t play together, can’t even sit facing each other without a shield, can’t play contact sports, can’t move freely around the classroom, etc.
Unless you live in Indiana. Kids here can't share supplies. None of the rest are true here. Right now they don't even need to be masked in classrooms as long as they can remain three feet apart.
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El Guapo
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

This is the e-mail that I got from my kids' school the other day:
What families may expect this fall:

Masks required for all
Hand washing required throughout the day
Hand sanitizer readily available in all locations as well
Families keep home any child who is unwell
Continue upgraded cleaning standards that began last spring
Cleaning supplies in every classroom for use during the day (in addition)
Training for students, faculty, and staff and information sharing with families about adherence to safety and health protocols and schedules
Signage to reinforce behavior
Active administrative and board committees as well as outside health and safety experts to monitor and advise in an ongoing capacity
Direct contact with Dedham Department of Public Health who will guide us through any suspected or actual COVID-19 cases.
Confidentiality maintained
Children unable to abide by safety measures will participate from home
Continuing our practice from the spring, access to the building during the school day will be limited to students, faculty, and staff until community health conditions suggest otherwise

My last message (19 July no.2) described scenarios under consideration and the significant tech upgrades to facilitate them. Here are updates to the model as envisioned at this time.
I wrote about three scenarios. In a practical sense, there are two:
A full in-building schedule that students at home can follow as well
An upgraded Rashi Online program based on experience from last spring, that will be used if the entire school is at home

Other aspects of the fall program include:
Individual workspaces In all rooms
Six--foot distancing in all classrooms
Retrofit large rooms throughout the building for classroom use as needed
Use outdoor spaces when possible
Student and faculty groupings to limit exposure of individuals within the community
Reduced transitions and thoughtful traffic flow to maintain physical distancing
Full complement of music, performing and visual arts, and fitness and health classes revised to exceed safety guidelines laid out by the Commonwealth
Lunch will be eaten within groups. (We will not use the chadar ochel.)
Recess will be by group and outdoors whenever possible.

We are working on upgrades to the building and will report more comprehensively on those in a future message. At this time we can report in process:
Upgraded ventilation and filtration systems (will report following completion and testing)
Tents to extend learning spaces -
One on the concrete outside the chader ochel
Three in the meadow beyond the amphitheater, leaving field for play at the end near the playground as well as access for emergency vehicles
Touchless faucets
Touchless flushing mechanisms
Touchless paper towel dispensers in classrooms
Designated isolation space proximate to the nurse’s office

Our teams will continue to diligently, thoughtfully, and intentionally consider all pertinent information at hand, along with any new developments. We are planning a 2020-21 Parent Info Webinar and Q&A for Thursday, August 13 at 7:30 pm. You will receive an invitation.

We are making significant investments in our campus infrastructure to allow for in-person education and are creating robust teaching and learning frameworks to carry the learning out of the building. We are well prepared to take on challenges of the year ahead, together.

We recognize that you will have further questions. We are happy to receive them and we promise to answer all questions as answers are available. Thank you for your patience, flexibility, and support as we continue to adjust to this ever-changing landscape. Expect to hear from me on a weekly basis going forward.
Not really sure what to make of it. Seems like they are trying to have an in-person component, though also recognizing that there will inevitably be at least partial distance learning as well (at least for kids who can't follow the safety procedures), which means that there will have to be some kind of virtual option. It's a school with a large building that's under-capacity in attendance in general, so there's more ability to do smaller groups than other schools, and since we don't live in Trump country I think it's more realistic to expect general compliance with masks and whatnot.

But still. I was glad to see the emphasis on as much outdoors as possible and on an upgraded ventilation system (though I'd really like more details on what exactly that means). But you know, you can't avoid groups in doors, especially when winter rolls around.
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LawBeefaroni
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

CPS has canned the hybrid model. Online/at home only to start the year.
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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Nature - Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump. A good read on the gaps in knowledge that existed from past efforts and table tops. It explores the transition from what we knew to the failure which was they didn't predict a President who intentionally sidelined health experts. Another surprising learning for me here was that the experts gamed out years ago that travel bans would be leaky...yet that was and remains the cornerstone of his 'containment' effort.
Confusion emerged in most pandemic simulations, but none explored the consequences of a White House sidelining its own public-health agency. Perhaps they should have, suggests a scientist who has worked in the US public-health system for decades and asked to remain anonymous because they did not have permission to speak to the press. “You need gas in the engine and the brakes to work, but if the driver doesn’t want to use the car, you’re not going anywhere,” the scientist says.

By contrast, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea showed that it was possible to contain the virus, says Scott Dowell, an infectious-disease specialist at the Gates Foundation who spent 21 years at the CDC and has participated in several simulations. The places that have done well with COVID-19 had “early, decisive action by their government leaders” he says. Cameron agrees: “It’s not that the US doesn’t have the right tools — it’s that we aren’t choosing to use them.”
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