The 21st Century Arms Race

[Isgrimnur]

Jalopnik

As 2019 rounded to a close, the United States tested a new missile that was up until just a few months ago prohibited by international treaty. The missile blasted off from Vandenberg Air Force Base and splashed down in a patch of the Pacific Ocean, signifying the end of an important arms control treaty signed with the Soviet Union in 1987. The end of the treaty, while not unexpected, represents a worsening of relations between the nuclear powers.

The test took place earlier this month at Vandenberg Air Force Base on the central California coast. The missile flew west for approximately 310 miles, a distance formerly banned by the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty—or INF Treaty for short. The missile was tested just three and a half months after the United States had formally withdrawn from the treaty after repeated allegations of Russian cheating.
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But the rise of Vladimir Putin marked a downward turn of U.S.-Russian relations, and it’s no great surprise that in 2014 the State Department claimed that Russia had violated the INF Treaty with a new ground-launched cruise missile. Relations with Russia took a further dive under President Trump, and in 2018 the State Department finally put a name to the treaty-offending missile: the 9M729. According to Foggy Bottom, 9M729 was allegedly an existing short range cruise missile modified to fly treaty-busting. Russia tried to convince the U.S. and NATO that the missile was not a violation, but the Trump Administration announced in February 2019 it would leave the treaty in six months. By August, the treaty was officially dead.

The U.S. tested this new missile just three and a half months after the end of the treaty, and clearly the effort to build it had been going on for longer than that. The prime contractor for the test was Northrop Grumman, and according to Harvard astronomer and space launch watcher Jonathan McDowell, the missile appeared very similar to NG’s Castor 4 rocket.

[Isgrimnur]

The Aviationist

Russian state news media and credible western news outlets such as the BBC World News are reporting that Russia has operationally deployed its new, “highly maneuverable”, ICBM-launched Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle to an active military base somewhere in the Ural Mountains of western Russia.

The reports are significant since the Russian claims of maneuverability for the Avangard HGV may make interception of the missile system impossible with known anti-missile defense systems and countermeasures.

The Avangard is boosted into flight using an ICBM launch platform such as Russia’s SS-19 Stiletto (also known as the UR-100UTTkh). The Avangard HGV separates from its ICBM boost platform after reaching an apogee or maximum altitude of approximately 100 km. After separation from the launch ICBM platform the unpowered Avangard reenters the atmosphere at hypersonic speed. This flight profile is no different than existing ICBM deployed hypersonic weapons used by the U.S. and other nations. What is claimed to set the Avangard apart from existing reentry vehicles is its maneuverability. Russia claims the Avangard is as fast as an ICBM warhead on reentry but also as maneuverable as a low-speed cruise missile. It is this claim of maneuverability at hypersonic speeds that is alleged to make Avangard “impossible” to intercept by known anti-missile defense systems.
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No images of the Avangard have been released and there are no open source explanations of how the reentry vehicle maneuvers at hypersonic speed once reentering or is back inside the atmosphere in its terminal attack phase. This is the phase of flight when most anti-missile systems engage an incoming target.

[LordMortis]

Are we to be happy or sad if the US and Russia slide back in to cold war? These last 3 years have me so confused.

[Isgrimnur]

Are we to be happy or sad if the US and Russia slide back in to cold war? These last 3 years have me so confused.

Depends on what stock segments your retirement is in.

[LordMortis]

Are we to be happy or sad if the US and Russia slide back in to cold war? These last 3 years have me so confused.

Depends on what stock segments your retirement is in.

Mostly broad indexes. Mainly SPY (broad), VTI (broader), VT (broadest). I think a cold war would be bad. But the oligarchy will ultimately be worse. What do I lose?

[Isgrimnur]

As long as you're useful in the AutoDowme, you won't be on the menu in the Kellogg Dining Facility.

[Alefroth]

Are we to be happy or sad if the US and Russia slide back in to cold war? These last 3 years have me so confused.

I'm not optimistic it would be strictly a cold war.

[Holman]

Cold War is the best option.

More likely is a new US-USSR Warsaw Pact.

[Kraken]

The apocalypse is really at the confluence of at least three different threads, but this one wins because the Doomsday Clock has traditionally been about nuclear holocaust. It's later than it's ever been.

This situation—two major threats to human civilization, amplified by sophisticated, technology-propelled propaganda—would be serious enough if leaders around the world were focused on managing the danger and reducing the risk of catastrophe. Instead, over the last two years, we have seen influential leaders denigrate and discard the most effective methods for addressing complex threats—international agreements with strong verification regimes—in favor of their own narrow interests and domestic political gain. By undermining cooperative, science- and law-based approaches to managing the most urgent threats to humanity, these leaders have helped to create a situation that will, if unaddressed, lead to catastrophe, sooner rather than later.

Faced with this daunting threat landscape and a new willingness of political leaders to reject the negotiations and institutions that can protect civilization over the long term, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board today moves the Doomsday Clock 20 seconds closer to midnight—closer to apocalypse than ever. In so doing, board members are explicitly warning leaders and citizens around the world that the international security situation is now more dangerous than it has ever been, even at the height of the Cold War.

The Union of Unconcerned Scientists assures me there's nothing to worry about.