It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43688
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Kraken »

The economy continues to defy expectations and looks like it will keep expanding through next year. Everybody except Drazzil who wants a job has at least one -- cities actually have labor shortages. Wages are creeping up, inflation is nonexistent, and stock markets are dragging our retirement accounts along to record highs. Democrats want to convince us that things aren't really as great as the numbers indicate, and they have a lot of valid points. But most of us are better off than we were four years ago and even though a recession is overdue, the near future looks encouraging.

Incumbent presidents nearly always win reelection when the economy is expanding. For all the daily campaign sturm und drang, Trump's fate will probably follow precedent. So: Should we hope for a recession next year, or is that self-destructive? Do you think one's coming anyway? How much longer can the longest expansion in history keep chugging along? Can any Democrat depose Trump in the face of a healthy economy? Would electing a progressive knock it down?
User avatar
YellowKing
Posts: 30125
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 2:02 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by YellowKing »

I've decided to take a zen approach to the whole thing in 2020, or else I will go insane. I don't need the stress or the drama.

At this point I've pretty much resigned myself to four more years of Trump, and should that happen I'll survive the same way I've survived the last three years. One day at a time. And should he, by some miracle, not win re-election in the face of a strong economy, then I'll consider it a welcome surprise.

I would never wish for a recession, because I feel that's just trading certain hardship for the chance of some brighter future. While historians may look back and say a recession would have been vastly preferable to the trouble Trump got us into in his second term, we're too close to the moment to make that call right now.

My hope is that if Trump is re-elected, the American people mitigate it somewhat by giving the Democrats control of the Senate. At least that way Trump would be partially neutered, and maybe even impeached again (for realz this time).
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41243
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by El Guapo »

YellowKing wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:47 am I've decided to take a zen approach to the whole thing in 2020, or else I will go insane. I don't need the stress or the drama.

At this point I've pretty much resigned myself to four more years of Trump, and should that happen I'll survive the same way I've survived the last three years. One day at a time. And should he, by some miracle, not win re-election in the face of a strong economy, then I'll consider it a welcome surprise.

I would never wish for a recession, because I feel that's just trading certain hardship for the chance of some brighter future. While historians may look back and say a recession would have been vastly preferable to the trouble Trump got us into in his second term, we're too close to the moment to make that call right now.

My hope is that if Trump is re-elected, the American people mitigate it somewhat by giving the Democrats control of the Senate. At least that way Trump would be partially neutered, and maybe even impeached again (for realz this time).
You live in a swing state, man. Do some voter registration and canvassing in 2020.
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43688
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Kraken »

YellowKing wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:47 am I would never wish for a recession, because I feel that's just trading certain hardship for the chance of some brighter future. While historians may look back and say a recession would have been vastly preferable to the trouble Trump got us into in his second term, we're too close to the moment to make that call right now.
I'm of two minds about a recession, leaving aside the political ramifications. I presume that it will be an ordinary business-cycle contraction, short and shallow compared to the Great Recession. Boston has way too much traffic, not enough housing, and not enough workers to fill service positions; a lot of people working now would be considered unemployable in normal times. Restaurants are always crowded. It would be nice to ease the pressure on transportation and housing for six months or a year. And, purely selfishly, Wife and I are secure. Worst case, we'd have to start drawing Social Security sooner than planned. But it's extremely unlikely that her job would be endangered or that my clients would drop me.

OTOH, I don't wish hardship on those who are already struggling to get by, and the most vulnerable are always the first to suffer the most. The government has virtually no recession-fighting tools to draw upon. This boom is being fueled by deficit spending, and with a deficit approaching $1 trillion we can't do any more of that. The Fed has a little room for further rate cuts, but rates are already so low that shaving them another point isn't going to make a dramatic difference. Plus, the government is so divided that it will be hard to pass anything anyway.

So, again leaving aside political considerations, Imma agree with you and be careful what I wish for. Prosperity feels too good (and fragile) to wish away.
User avatar
dbt1949
Posts: 25687
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:34 am
Location: Hogeye Arkansas

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by dbt1949 »

After my $12 a month SS raise I'm hard pressed to see how well the country is doing financially.
I think they need to figure these things out differently.
And get rid of the electoral collage.
Ye Olde Farte
Double Ought Forty
aka dbt1949
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43688
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Kraken »

Unless we've somehow transcended economics, another recession is inevitable. If it doesn't come before November, then it will almost surely strike early in the next presidential term. If the Democrats take the WH, they will be blamed for sinking the economy. If Trump is re-elected, he'll blame the Democrats for sinking the economy. So if Democrats are going to be blamed either way, is it better to be in office and have their agenda derailed by yet another broken economy, or is it better to make Trump reap what he sowed? We can probably assume that whichever party holds the WH will be punished in the 2022 midterms.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:58 pm Unless we've somehow transcended economics, another recession is inevitable. If it doesn't come before November, then it will almost surely strike early in the next presidential term.
There is not much reason to assume this timing other than because it has been a long time since 2008. We haven't transcended economics but the Fed and other major central banks learned a lot about IS-LM during the Great Recession. They have a much better hand on the tiller as a result. Banking regulation of the banks is effective even with Trump era deregulation. They also seem to have at some level learned their lesson and are apparently managing risk well. There is another factor I believe as well though hard to quantify. I suspect that Trump's mishandling of trade has served to under burn growth and investors have correctly sussed out how the slowdown of growth outside the US will affect the economy here. This is part of why we haven't seen inflation run away. Job creation has been in lower wage jobs and energy prices are relatively low too. There isn't much inflation fuel at the moment. We also haven't seen any real hints of bubbly activity or any sector of the economy running out of control. That doesn't mean there isn't some overhang out there but it seems to be way less likely than the last two expansions which had spectacular bubble bursts.

On the negative side, we have seen some interesting problems but they have come with some silver linings. For example, the overnight money issues back in September turned out to be a technical glitch around money supply. It is without an actual solution still. However, the Fed diagnosed it quickly and came up with a kludge of a solution which effectively looks a bit like Quantitative Easing but on a much smaller scale.
Spoiler:
I actually wrote up a long explanation for this - it seems unnecessary in retrospect so I'll move it below the post - read it if you are interested in the issue.* :)
Back to the problems though - we still have big time consumer debt issues overhanging the system. Inequality is still increasing pretty quickly. The government is still running massive deficits which is likely masking underlying problems in the economy. There are plenty of risks but nothing that indicates growth is at risk...yet.
If the Democrats take the WH, they will be blamed for sinking the economy. If Trump is re-elected, he'll blame the Democrats for sinking the economy. So if Democrats are going to be blamed either way, is it better to be in office and have their agenda derailed by yet another broken economy, or is it better to make Trump reap what he sowed? We can probably assume that whichever party holds the WH will be punished in the 2022 midterms.
Mid-terms have historically worked this way anyway. If Trump wins though the mid-terms are going to be the least of anyone's problems.

*In essence, the Fed needed to get more cash into the system to prime the overnight credit system. We lack a central facility to do this and the Fed conducts surveys to predict 'cash demand' and gauge whether there is enough money in the system. The surveys however aren't 'real-time' and can have mistakes or not foresee market issues that can cause short-term cash shortages. The ECB by comparison has an overnight lending window of last resort that effectively sets the 'ceiling' on interest rates overnight. If there isn't enough cash, they have cash to lend at a rate that is higher than the market is setting. We don't have such a mechanism. We expect the banks to have enough cash on hand to lend out at reasonable rate. In September there were some days with higher than normal settlement activity. The banks weren't willing to go below their capitalization thresholdswithout significant risk premiums since they'd be exposing themselves to regulatory and internal risk management scrutiny. In the end, rates spiked over night yields north of 10% when they typically are under a point. Anyway, the Fed saw what was happening and spun up an operation to buy a bunch of bonds to inject cash. The side effect of all this is it is goosing investment/bond yields in a positive direction without introducing much risk. That said it is reactive and it'd still be better if there was a cash facility.
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43688
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Kraken »

I agree that the probability of a near-term recession is primarily statistical. This being the longest expansion on record, we're in uncharted territory. Nobody knows for sure what the economy will do in six months, let alone 2-3 years.

For example, Wall Street is going to be very unhappy if Democrats nominate either of the two reformers (Warren, Sanders), and even unhappier if they poll well against Trump. If the Dems nominate any of the corporate candidates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) or either of the billionaires (Bloomberg, Steyer), bankers can count on business as usual with a little tinkering at the margins. Markets afraid of major tax and spending increases could contract and spook consumers, and then we're in a downward spiral as early as this summer -- consumers are driving everything right now.

With an unshackled madman at the helm, anything can happen.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70098
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LordMortis »

From a stupid perspective of stupidity, wherein I am desperately looking for the ah ha moment that shows me I'm wrong, we have turbulent stock market that is about 20% up after being up 10% a year for like a decade. This is happening with GDP growth of around 4%, slightly higher than a nearly 3% inflation and also happening while we have made our safety net removal into ongoing policy which synchronized debt (especially bad debt) growth hitting recession like highs and with saving money anywhere other than in stock market nearly equivalent to stuffing it in your mattress.

I can't see the stock market continuing to expand at 10% much less 20% when companies aren't growing or returning a 10% increase every year.

Can we make it one more year? I dunno. I'm still sheeping along and maxing my 401k and with nowhere else to put my money but stuff in the mattress (CDs), I'm headed back into index funds and wincing as I do so. What else are you going to do? I've put so much in to CDs that isn't keeping up with inflation already. The other option is to live life as the grasshopper. I envy those who spend all they make and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. But my health will not afford their lifestyles. However, I'm still not feeling the doom the same way I did in 2007 (wherein my retirement broker advised me not pull everything into savings account and I listened because I'm don't know anything and he's an expert). People are still buying. People are still doing stuff. We're still in consume like locusts mode. It feels more ominous now than impending. The problem I see is that with all of our nets woven into silk scarves, when it comes I fear it's going to hit quickly and with more force than we've experienced in my adult lifetime. (I'm too young to remember the 70s crash well) When the market drops 20% it's going to want to take the nation with it and I don't see the nets, the sandbags, the anything. I see politicians getting drunk on their ability to set the bar tab without knowledge or care of how much liquor is behind the counter.
User avatar
gameoverman
Posts: 5908
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:21 pm
Location: Glendora, CA

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by gameoverman »

Kraken wrote: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:56 pm The economy continues to defy expectations and looks like it will keep expanding through next year. Everybody except Drazzil who wants a job has at least one
That's the thing that makes me doubt how great the economy is doing. The cost of living is so high here in southern California that I personally know multiple people who've moved out of state for that sole reason. Your "at least one" job remark hints at why. Sure someone may be employed, they may be earning a paycheck. They may even have more than one job and be earning more than one paycheck. What good is it if it still isn't enough? Having more than one job, or having a side gig, is not a good thing. It means people can't get by on their main gig anymore. We as a society went from only needing one breadwinner in the family to needing both mom and dad working to now mom and dad need to be working AND each needs more than one income stream.

For whatever reason, a lot of these people don't see it that way though. That's why I think Trump will be re-elected. This has become the new norm and therefore voters aren't upset by it.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:45 am From a stupid perspective of stupidity, wherein I am desperately looking for the ah ha moment that shows me I'm wrong, we have turbulent stock market that is about 20% up after being up 10% a year for like a decade. This is happening with GDP growth of around 4%, slightly higher than a nearly 3% inflation and also happening while we have made our safety net removal into ongoing policy which synchronized debt (especially bad debt) growth hitting recession like highs and with saving money anywhere other than in stock market nearly equivalent to stuffing it in your mattress.

I can't see the stock market continuing to expand at 10% much less 20% when companies aren't growing or returning a 10% increase every year.
I think you have some problems with the analysis here. One issue is using the wrong time frames (looking at the relatively short term). Another is mapping growth in companies in the stock market too strongly against the general economy.

Here is a rough analysis:

If you expand out the time frame to 40 years - the S&P and DJI compound growth clocks in at 9% and 9.5% annually. Inflation over that period was approximately 3% so "real" market growth is more like 6-7% over 40 years which is roughly double GDP growth in the same period.

Now we factor in the other piece which is that these companies do not reflect the general economy. They are generally much larger revenue wise. They have good to excellent management compared to regular businesses. Public companies account for only a portion of the economy and the stock market doesn't correlate well to GDP growth.

However, interestingly you hit on something that has been seen in some analyses. The stock market has generally out-performed GDP growth over time. You can see it in the so-called Buffet Indicator (Total Market Cap of the stock market / GDP). It is running around the 150% mark now which is usually seen as significantly overvalued in the model. However, some technical market analysts have shown that the trend is upward so the Buffet indicator doesn't work like the first link says. It apparently grows at some rate as well and that may correlate to a model of public company performing better than GDP over time.

If you want my take, I interpret this as showing that in general public companies are becoming more efficient over time with capital. There are other confounding factors at play. I suspect that automation is a big part of the story. I also don't necessarily think this is a story with a good ending for many people and it is driving overall inequality. You have less workers taking more of the growth from the economy and keeping it for themselves. Sure you can buy into it as a regular person but hard to do when your income is barely keeping up with student loan and rent payments. Yadda yadda.

Like the thread title says the economy reflects how people live their lives over time in the modern world. I just don't think the model espoused in the OP is holding up considering all the change happening to how the economy vis a vis through its intersection with politics is allocating wealth. I don't think that the low unemployment levels are reflecting greater opportunity for many.
Can we make it one more year? I dunno. I'm still sheeping along and maxing my 401k and with nowhere else to put my money but stuff in the mattress (CDs), I'm headed back into index funds and wincing as I do so. What else are you going to do? I've put so much in to CDs that isn't keeping up with inflation already. The other option is to live life as the grasshopper. I envy those who spend all they make and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. But my health will not afford their lifestyles. However, I'm still not feeling the doom the same way I did in 2007 (wherein my retirement broker advised me not pull everything into savings account and I listened because I'm don't know anything and he's an expert). People are still buying. People are still doing stuff. We're still in consume like locusts mode. It feels more ominous now than impending. The problem I see is that with all of our nets woven into silk scarves, when it comes I fear it's going to hit quickly and with more force than we've experienced in my adult lifetime. (I'm too young to remember the 70s crash well) When the market drops 20% it's going to want to take the nation with it and I don't see the nets, the sandbags, the anything. I see politicians getting drunk on their ability to set the bar tab without knowledge or care of how much liquor is behind the counter.
When the market does fall it is not likely to be a calamity. I agree this doesn't feel like 2007. Or 1999. Or the 70s. This is a different economy. It is transforming rapidly underneath and is more data driven. Like I said above I don't think we've conquered the business cycle or even tamed it; however I think that capital at risk is lower than it was before 2008. I think over time we'll see that the spread between growth and risk has narrowed - maybe even significantly. That said would I put new money into the market now? To be completely transparent I just committed a token amount in ($250/mo) into my taxable account. I've decided to take a good chunk of my annual take home increase and invest it since aside from massive blue tax increase my expenses have been stable. I'm maxing the 401K already so I don't have anywhere more tax efficient to do it.
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LawBeefaroni »

By that measure, Tuesday’s climb by the S&P 500 SPX-0.61% to a peak at 3,250.04 would mean that the average employee, at an hourly wage of $28.29, would need to work 114.88 hours to buy a single unit of the index, representing one of the loftiest levels on record, according to data from FactSet and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
WM
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70098
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LordMortis »

This is a fascinating to me bit or looking at economic growth through different lenses

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN2011AR

Samples:
On average, Americans have seen a 17% jump in household wealth since Trump’s election, while wealth at the bottom half has increased 54%.
The biggest winners on a dollar basis were a familiar group - whites, college graduates, and people born during the “baby boom” between 1946 and 1964.
Even after those gains, that works out to average net worth of around $26,000 for the bottom half of households versus around $27 million for the ones at the top.
Much of that increase among the bottom half was due to increases in real estate, not stocks, after a resurgence in home ownership rates that began in 2016.
Wages for lower-skilled jobs have of late been rising faster than those for higher-skilled occupations. January non-farm payrolls data show a bigger-than-expected jump in overall employment, bolstered by an increase in construction jobs.

But it takes time for income to be saved and translate into wealth. Since Trump took office, households headed by a college graduate captured 75% of the net worth gains, or around $11.88 trillion.
Overall, households headed by a high school graduate, a group on the front lines of Trump’s pledge to restore blue collar fortunes, lost $0.4 trillion in net worth during his time in office
Baby boomers under Trump, himself a member of that generation, captured around $10 trillion of recent wealth gains, or about two-thirds of the total.
User avatar
Daehawk
Posts: 63524
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 1:11 am

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Daehawk »

I cant figure out who or what is to thank but I know Trump didn't do it. Maybe some of it is 'because' of trump but not by him directly.
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70098
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LordMortis »

Daehawk wrote: Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:20 pm I cant figure out who or what is to thank but I know Trump didn't do it. Maybe some of it is 'because' of trump but not by him directly.
The article suggests property values are in large part to thank.
Much of that increase among the bottom half was due to increases in real estate, not stocks, after a resurgence in home ownership rates that began in 2016.
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43688
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Kraken »

The world is bracing for a probable pandemic, so of course Trump is concerned...about how it might affect his reelection.
The White House is concerned about the possibility that there could be a large coronavirus outbreak in the United States that could sicken thousands and how that could affect the possibility of President Donald Trump being reelected. The increased concern comes as the World Health Organization is increasingly using more ominous language to refer to the new virus that suggests it is spreading more quickly and widely than previously realized and could be on the verge of reaching a pandemic.
Because when confronted with the possibility that many of his subjects might sicken and die, the king's first concern is with his popularity. Maybe it's time to hire some of those sciencey people.
Drazzil
Posts: 4723
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:54 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Drazzil »

Kraken wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:31 am The world is bracing for a probable pandemic, so of course Trump is concerned...about how it might affect his reelection.
The White House is concerned about the possibility that there could be a large coronavirus outbreak in the United States that could sicken thousands and how that could affect the possibility of President Donald Trump being reelected. The increased concern comes as the World Health Organization is increasingly using more ominous language to refer to the new virus that suggests it is spreading more quickly and widely than previously realized and could be on the verge of reaching a pandemic.
Because when confronted with the possibility that many of his subjects might sicken and die, the king's first concern is with his popularity. Maybe it's time to hire some of those sciencey people.
Trump makes me sick every day he is in office. I don't think coronavirus will kill the economy. The fatality rate is too low and China is better at containing it then we would be. Now China's economy could slow leading the US economy to slow as well.
Daehawk wrote:Thats Drazzil's chair damnit.
User avatar
Holman
Posts: 28906
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:00 pm
Location: Between the Schuylkill and the Wissahickon

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Holman »

Kraken wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:31 am The world is bracing for a probable pandemic, so of course Trump is concerned...about how it might affect his reelection.
The White House is concerned about the possibility that there could be a large coronavirus outbreak in the United States that could sicken thousands and how that could affect the possibility of President Donald Trump being reelected. The increased concern comes as the World Health Organization is increasingly using more ominous language to refer to the new virus that suggests it is spreading more quickly and widely than previously realized and could be on the verge of reaching a pandemic.
Because when confronted with the possibility that many of his subjects might sicken and die, the king's first concern is with his popularity. Maybe it's time to hire some of those sciencey people.
Late-October Surprise:

"GOVERNMENT HEALTH WARNING! RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING CITIES ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PUBLIC SPACES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT, um, TWO WEEKS: CLEVELAND, COLUMBUS, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, [etc etc Blue cities in OH, PA, WI]..."
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
User avatar
Skinypupy
Posts: 20331
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
Location: Utah

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Skinypupy »

Just got back from lunch with an "independent" friend. We rarely talk politics, but somehow the Democratic debates came up. He mentioned how he didn't really like Bernie at all (based solely on the few news clips he watched). His comment was, "I hardly pay any attention to politics, but I know that my 401k and other investments are doing great. I don't know why I would ever vote to change that."

I asked him how much he knew about what is going on with the Trump administration (i.e. corruption, abuse of power, constant lies, general overall shitiness), and he said "Not much, and I don't really care. That's just politics." Asked if he knew why his 401k was doing well, and the record deficit and tax cuts for the uber-rich that are making it possible. Same answer. Asked if he knew about the damage the administration is doing to our system of governance. Same answer. Literally the only thing that mattered to him in regards to his voting decision was the economy and how it's currently benefiting him.

The entire discussion was depressing. Mostly because for every one of us that is passionate about repairing the damage this administration is doing, there are another ten completely uninformed people who will vote solely because of "the economy, stupid". :(
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Isgrimnur »

Proving that there is no form of government that is perfect. You either surrender power to those whom can be corrupted, or run by a mob of people who can't give a crap to pay attention.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Pyperkub
Posts: 23583
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: NC- that's Northern California

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Pyperkub »

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:25 pm Just got back from lunch with an "independent" friend. We rarely talk politics, but somehow the Democratic debates came up. He mentioned how he didn't really like Bernie at all (based solely on the few news clips he watched). His comment was, "I hardly pay any attention to politics, but I know that my 401k and other investments are doing great. I don't know why I would ever vote to change that."

I asked him how much he knew about what is going on with the Trump administration (i.e. corruption, abuse of power, constant lies, general overall shitiness), and he said "Not much, and I don't really care. That's just politics." Asked if he knew why his 401k was doing well, and the record deficit and tax cuts for the uber-rich that are making it possible. Same answer. Asked if he knew about the damage the administration is doing to our system of governance. Same answer. Literally the only thing that mattered to him in regards to his voting decision was the economy and how it's currently benefiting him.

The entire discussion was depressing. Mostly because for every one of us that is passionate about repairing the damage this administration is doing, there are another ten completely uninformed people who will vote solely because of "the economy, stupid". :(
Probably not too happy about the 2k drop in the DJI the past couple of days then. Coronavirus concerns may be the instigator, but other cracks are likely to emerge...
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70098
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LordMortis »

Pyperkub wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:30 pm Probably not too happy about the 2k drop in the DJI the past couple of days then. Coronavirus concerns may be the instigator, but other cracks are likely to emerge...
I'm treating it as a good time to buy as I've been tying up more and more in CDs. :oops: SPY is 6% drop in five days. I can start dipping stuff in bit by bit. The more it drops, the more I dip. I mentioned in OOIC, I love that they removed the large commission for small trades.

So while this may help my budding portfolio, I'm still not voting for my pocketbook, per se. Though in a round about way I am. My long standing recognition for healthcare retooling isn't quite my single issue voting. But a plan to keep what we have as a solution to what we have is close to a deal breaker for going on 15 years now and this is a selfish move on my part.
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43688
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Kraken »

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:25 pm Just got back from lunch with an "independent" friend. We rarely talk politics, but somehow the Democratic debates came up. He mentioned how he didn't really like Bernie at all (based solely on the few news clips he watched). His comment was, "I hardly pay any attention to politics, but I know that my 401k and other investments are doing great. I don't know why I would ever vote to change that."

I asked him how much he knew about what is going on with the Trump administration (i.e. corruption, abuse of power, constant lies, general overall shitiness), and he said "Not much, and I don't really care. That's just politics." Asked if he knew why his 401k was doing well, and the record deficit and tax cuts for the uber-rich that are making it possible. Same answer. Asked if he knew about the damage the administration is doing to our system of governance. Same answer. Literally the only thing that mattered to him in regards to his voting decision was the economy and how it's currently benefiting him.

The entire discussion was depressing. Mostly because for every one of us that is passionate about repairing the damage this administration is doing, there are another ten completely uninformed people who will vote solely because of "the economy, stupid". :(
If things go down the way that it looks like they're going, covid-19 might be just what gets (DEM_NAME) elected. The odds of a global recession are growing by the day. Skiny's friend who only cares about his 401k is not sleeping well this week. If the growing economy and rising markets that have been Trump's +2 armor up to now get dispelled, Skiny's friend will wonder why, and if (big IF) he learns the truth about Trump's crisis response, then he might just learn about a whole lot more, and be persuaded to throw the bum out. There's nothing quite like a recession to make people interested in politics.

Yeah, I didn't want to go there, but I can't help myself -- I'm rooting for a recession now. A short, shallow one that starts this spring and ends in December, please. :pray:
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55315
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LawBeefaroni »

If you care about your 401k, you presumably care about it long term. Unfettered Trump is not good for long the long term. He bankrupts everything he touches.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by malchior »

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:25 pm Just got back from lunch with an "independent" friend. We rarely talk politics, but somehow the Democratic debates came up. He mentioned how he didn't really like Bernie at all (based solely on the few news clips he watched). His comment was, "I hardly pay any attention to politics, but I know that my 401k and other investments are doing great. I don't know why I would ever vote to change that."
I had an adjacent but different experience due to cognitive dissonance. Last night I was out to dinner with a senior person in my firm. We were talking about big cloud projects. We got to talking about the JEDI cloud project for DOD. If you aren't familiar it is a $10B project to build a classified cloud for the DOD. AWS was heavily expected to get the contract but it was awarded to Microsoft which shocked the entire industry.

AWS ended up suing the government saying the procurement process was violated. His take was that AWS was suing because of 'sour grapes' about not winning the bid. He even started this by explaining that AWS had built a working prototype on their own dime, proved it worked, and already has a classified cloud environment that several government agencies use. Microsoft doesn't have this capability and has little to no experience in the area. His take was that Microsoft had good experience and they'll figure it out. They just won on price. Still there was a clear reason why AWS was the seen as not only the front runner but the inevitable winner.

I then related that the media accounts are that AWS actually appeared to be was suing because they had evidence that at the last minute the officials in charge of the procurement deviated heavily from the procurement process. They made changes that artificially affected Amazon's bid price. They essentially are alleging violations of the procurement process that are 'inexplicable'. I then related that the lawsuit claims to a degree that it might be because Trump influenced the procurement. I heavily disclaimed that this wasn't proven but it was part of their filing. Mentioning the fact was enough for him to brand me a 'conspiracy theorist'. Everything was #fakenews to him. It was really surprising because we were 100% aligned on all the facts up until it became "political" and then the facts stopped mattering. It was bizarre.

Edit: If you want to read up about the conspiracy theory here is an account of it on the apparently 4chan adjacent Federal News Network.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70098
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:27 am If you care about your 401k, you presumably care about it long term. Unfettered Trump is not good for long the long term. He bankrupts everything he touches.

+1 He has a proven track record. He lives a lifestyle while his loyal partners are left holding an empty bag with debt collectors looking for theirs.
User avatar
Octavious
Posts: 20035
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 2:50 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Octavious »

Market is down almost 500 on open. Guess they weren't impressed by his press conference. :lol:
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.

Shameless plug for my website: www.nettphoto.com
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Smoove_B »

It's going to get much, much worse - count on it.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
pr0ner
Posts: 17424
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 3:00 pm
Location: Northern Virginia, VA
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by pr0ner »

malchior wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:07 am Edit: If you want to read up about the conspiracy theory here is an account of it on the apparently 4chan adjacent Federal News Network.
Federal News Network is 4chan adjacent? That's news to me.
Hodor.
User avatar
Pyperkub
Posts: 23583
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: NC- that's Northern California

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Pyperkub »

LordMortis wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:43 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:30 pm Probably not too happy about the 2k drop in the DJI the past couple of days then. Coronavirus concerns may be the instigator, but other cracks are likely to emerge...
I'm treating it as a good time to buy as I've been tying up more and more in CDs. :oops: SPY is 6% drop in five days. I can start dipping stuff in bit by bit. The more it drops, the more I dip. I mentioned in OOIC, I love that they removed the large commission for small trades.

So while this may help my budding portfolio, I'm still not voting for my pocketbook, per se. Though in a round about way I am. My long standing recognition for healthcare retooling isn't quite my single issue voting. But a plan to keep what we have as a solution to what we have is close to a deal breaker for going on 15 years now and this is a selfish move on my part.
Was thinking more in terms of your ill-informed friend.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82085
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Isgrimnur »

Kraken wrote:Yeah, I didn't want to go there, but I can't help myself -- I'm rooting for a recession now. A short, shallow one that starts this spring and ends in December, please. :pray:

Image
It's almost as if people are the problem.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by malchior »

pr0ner wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:56 am
malchior wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:07 am Edit: If you want to read up about the conspiracy theory here is an account of it on the apparently 4chan adjacent Federal News Network.
Federal News Network is 4chan adjacent? That's news to me.
That was super sarcastic.
User avatar
pr0ner
Posts: 17424
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 3:00 pm
Location: Northern Virginia, VA
Contact:

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by pr0ner »

malchior wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:14 pm
pr0ner wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:56 am
malchior wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:07 am Edit: If you want to read up about the conspiracy theory here is an account of it on the apparently 4chan adjacent Federal News Network.
Federal News Network is 4chan adjacent? That's news to me.
That was super sarcastic.
I felt like something was off there....
Hodor.
User avatar
Pyperkub
Posts: 23583
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: NC- that's Northern California

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Pyperkub »

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:39 pm
Kraken wrote:Yeah, I didn't want to go there, but I can't help myself -- I'm rooting for a recession now. A short, shallow one that starts this spring and ends in December, please. :pray:

Image
Given Trump and his policies/yes-man loyalist advisors welcoming him as the savior, it won't be short or shallow, unfortunately.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
User avatar
stessier
Posts: 29816
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:30 pm
Location: SC

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by stessier »

The stock market was overpriced and we were overdue for a correction. We'd have to get to around 2800 on the S&P to be more inline with the historic trend, so there's still a fair amount of downside before I'd feel good jumping in.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
Global Steam Wishmaslist Tracking
Running____2014: 1300.55 miles____2015: 2036.13 miles____2016: 1012.75 miles____2017: 1105.82 miles____2018: 1318.91 miles__2019: 2000.00 miles
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70098
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LordMortis »

Which part of history? I don't remember any other part of history having savings accounts with 0% interest and 5 year CDs and US Bonds paying less than 2%.

https://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/hi ... est-rates/

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-yea ... ield-chart

Agreed there is a lot more potential for downside. However, there is also potential for this to reverse at any moment. I'm not comfortable breaking my retirement or unintended unemployment or I didn't know I'd need a new roof now planning but I am comfortable increasing dipping here and there on the way down and am tempted to dip a little deeper because, like the economy, I'm stupid.
User avatar
Holman
Posts: 28906
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:00 pm
Location: Between the Schuylkill and the Wissahickon

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Holman »

NPR's Kai Rhyssdal is predicting (on Twitter) that tomorrow will be awful on the markets.

Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70098
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by LordMortis »

Me! I want more money so I can hold the bag!
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by malchior »

FFS. Apparently every crisis now requires a dividend to be paid to plutocrats. The wealthy really have it hard in this nation. They mention a payroll tax cut but let's not be surprised when it either is a tiny cut or vanishes altogether.

User avatar
Holman
Posts: 28906
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:00 pm
Location: Between the Schuylkill and the Wissahickon

Re: It's the economy, stupid. Or the stupid economy.

Post by Holman »

Slashing Medicare to help the market survive Coronavirus...
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
Post Reply